By Charles The Moderator,
I have lived in California all my life, the first half in SoCal, the second half in NorCal.
A funny thing happens ever year.
If we have a below normal amount of rain, in the spring we get warnings that it’s going to be severe wildfire season, because the brush is so dry.
If we have an above normal amount of rain we get warnings that it’s going to be severe fire season, because there is so much extra brush.
If we have a normal rainy season we get warnings that’s it’s going to be severe fire season, with some hybrid explanation or an allusion to a previous fire season.
With the winter season likely to be a wet one in California, see Anthony’s recent post here, I propose a contest, which begins January 1st, 2011.
The first person to identify a news story expressing one of the three options noted above and note it in this thread will win a modest prize and a hat tip for fame and glory. I suspect April or May we will see a winner.
I suggest that those that wish to participate bookmark this post to keep track. I’ll set up notifications for myself to be emailed on activity in this thread.
Rules,
You need to find a real news story (or press release), not make it up yourself. I will be the judge.
The warning needs to come from a relevant State or Federal official, or a Fire Department official. I will be the arbiter of qualification.
charles the moderator
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as Aussie dan said above.. we were in the middle of flooding and a week of rain here, and the fire ban rating?
was High!
if they keep locking land away for useless parks and stopping grazing in the high country, the massive fires will keep happening.
idiots who are brainwashed by falsehoods making rules that have NO bearing in reality, kill more people than the fictitioius warming does.
It hasn’t snowed on Christmas in Atlanta in 128 years. But parts of Atlanta got up to 10 inches of global warming yesterday.
And areas in San Diego got up to 5 inches of drought last week. With the sun being anomoulously quiet, with a cooling trend for a decade and cooling oceans since ’02, there is ample speculation that the Earth is headed toward weather conditions last experienced in the 1800s. For example, weather like during the Maunder Minimum (e.g., 1790 to 1830).
Similarly, there have been other cold periods like the Spörer Minimum, the Dalton Minimum. These periods also coincided with an ebbing in solar activity. Throw in a few volcanic eruptions in the northern latitudes and the global warming alarmists in the West may live to reap a bitter harvest.
Misery, poverty and death is the reward of the unprepared. How will the West deal with a lack of energy brought about by the dogma of the Leftist agenda?
The real question among smart people now is, how long a Western secular, socialist society can cope with a high dose of reality? And, who will the intolerant liberal fascists choose to blame next?
Anyone and everyone who objects to or stands in the way of their fundamental principle: “Everything everywhere should be controlled and managed by US! US!”
Do we get a prize for being the first to note the correct reason for increased forest fire risk — forest fire suppression? Every hack by now knows that preventing small natural burns increases the later risk of large uncontrollable conflagrations because it leaves a continually increasing amount of flammable detritus. At some point a major fire becomes unstoppable, and the longer it is put off, the worse it will be.
I recommend a prize for the first to find a mainstream press article that properly analyses the california fire risk on this basis. 🙂
Hi Charles,
For a minute here I thought I had a winner:
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/07/fire-season/shea-text
Same old stuff from National Geographic:
From the Rocky Mountains to the coast of California, wildfires are burning bigger, hotter, and closer to home. Why is the West ablaze?
Most climate models now strongly suggest that the recent drought is not just a temporary phenomenon but part of a long-term drying trend made worse by global warming. There comes a point where no amount of money, no measure of heroism, is enough. Far from “wholly within the control of man,” fire becomes unstoppable.
But nuts, he doesn’t give us one of your three alternatives. And overall it’s not a bad article, emphasizing the role of natural fire in maintaining ecosystems.
I’ll keep looking.
Fortunately, AGW True Believer heretics are not hard to find. AGW heresy is the natural process of anyone with the required intellectual courage and necessary scientific integrity to make the conscientious decision to apply reason and logic to the facts.
At least as far as the global waming alarmism hoax goes, it’s a win for truth. The field of climatology, however, will forever be blackened as the chosen academic domain of secular, socialist government-paid numerologists, astrologers and witchdoctors of voodoo science who are ideologically opposed to the abandonement their ‘religious adherence to consensus dogma,’ e.g.:
“Let me ask you this. So how are things going for you lately? A year ago, the climate establishment was on top of the world, masters of the universe. Now we have a situation where there have been major challenges to the reputations of a number of scientists, the IPCC, professional societies, and other institutions of science. The spillover has been a loss of public trust in climate science and some have argued, even more broadly in science. The IPCC and the UNFCCC are regarded by many as impediments to sane and politically viable energy policies. The enviro advocacy groups are abandoning the climate change issue for more promising narratives…
“What happened? Did the skeptics and the oil companies and the libertarian think tanks win? No, you lost… And because of the high relevance of our field, we need to figure out how to provide the best possible scientific information and assessment of uncertainties. This means abandoning this religious adherence to consensus dogma.” ~Judith Curry, 25-Oct-2010
Not sure if this qualifies as a “news story” but here it is:
http://sciencedude.ocregister.com/2011/01/04/as-rains-douse-fire-danger-danger-blooms/118538/
“All the hills are as green as Ireland,” said Bruce Risher, intelligence officer for the U.S. Forest Service whose job includes long-range forecasting for fire season. “If we were to dry out from March on, if those grasses were to cure early, that would possibly bring an early start to the (fire) season.”
Reply: That might be a winner, but it’s really borderline. I was hoping for the imperative, not a set of what ifs. I will ponder. You may be a slow winner. ~ ctm