Solar Geomagnetic Ap Index Hits Zero

This is something you really don’t expect to see this far into solar cycle 24.

But there it is, the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite shows the sun as a cueball:

The Ap index being zero, indicates that the sun’s magnetic field is low, and its magneto is idling rather than revving up as it should be on the way to solar max. True, it’s just a couple of data points, but as NOAA’s SWPC predicts the solar cycle, we should be further along instead of having a wide  gap:

The Ap index generally follows along with the sunspot count, which is a proxy of solar activity.

And here’s the daily Ap geomagnetic data. The Ap is bumping along the bottom:

Graph by Jan Alvestad

 

The long term Ap has been on a downtrend, ever since there was a step change in October 2005:

The overall data looks pretty anemic:

This page is normally updated once a day by Jan Alvestad. All values are preliminary.

[Solar Terrestrial Activity Report]

h/t to Joe D’Aleo and thanks to Jan Alvestad for keeping this data and plotting it.

Solar and geomagnetic data (last month)

Date Measured

solar flux

Sunspot number Planetary A index K indices (3-hour intervals) Min-max solar wind speed (km/sec) Number of flares (events)
STAR NOAA STAR NOAA Daily low – high Planetary Boulder C M X
20101222 77.7 12 0 0.0 0 0-0 00000000 00001100 287-381
20101221 77.9 12 0 1.3 1 0-3 01001000 11101100 347-457
20101220 77.9 12 0 8.5 8 3-18 13222223 13222223 346-479
20101219 80.9 11 0 1.4 1 0-6 10000002 11000112 345-415
20101218 80.5 0 0 2.3 2 0-5 11001001 11101211 353-446
20101217 81.6 11 11 3.1 3 0-7 21001111 31001221 383-524
20101216 84.1 11 23 4.6 5 0-9 21210111 21220221 433-567
20101215 86.9 22 11 8.9 9 3-27 34111111 44222211 544-655 1
20101214 90.3 34 33 11.1 11 5-18 12233323 13233323 491-757 1
20101213 87.7 49 46 5.4 5 2-9 22200022 32211212 385-611
20101212 89.4 52 23 3.8 4 0-15 00001312 00001422 293-445
20101211 86.9 23 25 0.9 1 0-3 00000001 01001001 284-354
20101210 88.4 40 33 0.3 0 0-2 00000000 00000110 321-349
20101209 86.8 54 22 1.8 2 0-3 11000001 11200110 341-404
20101208 87.2 48 22 2.8 3 0-7 11001021 12111222 337-445
20101207 87.1 31 34 3.9 4 2-7 10102111 01112211 342-385
20101206 88.5 28 35 2.4 2 0-4 00011111 01121121 269-351
20101205 87.9 42 47 0.8 1 0-4 00000001 00011101 270-274
20101204 87.4 52 48 0.6 1 0-3 00100000 00101010 270-314
20101203 86.8 47 27 1.1 1 0-5 01000000 02000000 270-337
20101202 86.5 38 32 2.6 3 0-6 21001000 11000110 339-360
20101201 86.5 44 25 1.8 2 0-4 10000011 10100210 338-358 1
20101130 86.4 36 24 3.0 3 2-4 01011110 12021110 345-402
20101129 82.5 24 31 3.1 3 0-5 00111110 01221111 348-437
20101128 80.1 34 34 6.1 6 0-12 22101231 23212221 384-460
20101127 76.5 38 11 11.9 12 0-67 00001164 00001243 294-520
20101126 76.2 12 23 1.6 2 0-4 00001111 00001110 344-390
20101125 77.9 25 22 3.6 4 2-6 12111110 02112110 382-477
20101124 75.8 23 11 4.4 4 3-6 11111122 11221221 426-518
20101123 75.3 12 12 7.8 8 3-15 21311332 21312321 452-537

This page is normally updated once a day by Jan Alvestad. All values are preliminary.

[Solar Terrestrial Activity Report]

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December 25, 2010 8:19 pm

Geoff Sharp says:
December 25, 2010 at 7:48 pm
The next 2 cycles have the opportunity to prove the theory wrong, if so its pack up time.
But not to prove the theory correct, as many other predict the same thing.
But at least I have the balls (and data) to put it on the line.
Everybody has that and does that.
The current JPL data only goes to 3000AD, so 200,000 years is difficult.
Simply ask JPL to run the calculation out further. Or use other calculations [e.g. Carsten’s] as the accuracy does not need to be ultra high for this.
My theory stands alone and is quite different from those you mentioned, but you would need an understanding to appreciate that.
That is not the point. The point is that the others are equally adamant that they are correct and that they will be proven correct in the next two cycles. Understanding of your idea is difficult due to its hand waving nature, lack of numerical expression, and reliance on eye-balling of wiggly lines. These things disqualify it as a ‘theory’ in the usual meaning of the concept.

Stephen Wilde
December 26, 2010 2:59 am

“I personally think it’s likely that these grand minima are related to climate changes, perhaps due to UV absorption, but there is no widely accepted mechanism for explaining this cooling phenomenon. It’s still an area of intense debate. ”
Primitive man didn’t know the precise mechanisms for very much but he knew enough to make decisions on the basis of observed events and ensuing consequences.
I’m inclined to think it is primarily a matter of changes in ozone quantities due to a fine balance between destruction at levels above the stratopause and creation below the stratopause (apparently arounf 45km where the sign of the atmospheric response appears to reverse). That does of course involve UV absorption issues but I think it also involves a whole range of atmospheric chemical reactions to changing solar wavelengths and particle compositions.
UV on its own just doesn’t do the job.
What we seem to have here is a situation whereby very small solar changes produce not so small energy flow consequences by changing the chemical composition of our atmosphere with differential warming and cooling effects at different levels. I don’t think simple radiative physics is much help where chemical processes intervene.
That then affects the vertical temperature profile throughout our atmosphere to change tropospheric pressure distributions and thus the quantities of solar shortwave energy entering our oceans.
So we see what is primarily internal system variability but arising from atmospheric sensitivity to variations in the composition and relative proportions of the photons and particles that reach us from the sun.
It isn’t a big deal from the planet’s point of view but our lives and works are highly sensitive to local and regional weather so our perceptions make it seem like a big deal.
The so called ‘coincidences’ are just too frequent to be ignored.

John Day
December 26, 2010 5:46 am

Wilde
> What we seem to have here is a situation whereby very small solar changes
> produce not so small energy flow consequences by changing the chemical
> composition of our atmosphere with differential warming and cooling effects
> at different levels.
I am not a proponent of any particular Maunder cooling theory, so your theory might succeed if you can back it up with some relevant observational data. My point was that none of these theories are widely accepted.
What you’re proposing sounds like a “thermodynamic transistor”, which produces large output changes from very small input changes. In effect, an “energy amplifier”. Of course, so energy must be diminished elsewhere to conserve total energy.
> … primarily a matter of changes in ozone quantities due to a fine balance
> between destruction at levels above the stratopause and creation below
> the stratopause (apparently arounf 45km where the sign of the atmospheric
> response appears to reverse).
Yes, the stratopause is a very interesting part of our atmosphere, where temperature peaks and above which molecular mixing ceases and the different gases tend to separate out by their scale heights.
(Waving my hands a bit) it strikes me as being similar to the current-voltage operating curves of some transistor devices which depend on negative resistance to function as an amplifier.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_resistance
Perhaps you can find a analog to this effect between the stratosphere and mesosphere to make your climate transistor work.
😐

Stephen Wilde
December 26, 2010 6:55 am

Thanks John, that is a resonable analogy.
From what I say certain observations must necessarily follow otherwise my proposals will be falsified.
Some such observations are available such as :
The generally cooling mesosphere and stratosphere when the sun was more active.
The cessation of such cooling and the beginning of slight warming as the sun became less active.
The discovery that from 45 km upward (the stratopause is around 50km) the ozone quantities increased between 2004 and 2007 when the sun was quiet despite the expectation that they would have fallen. Quantities decreased as expected below that level.
The fact that the jets moved poleward when the sun was more active and the stratosphere cooled. Under conventional climatology the stratosphere should have warmed with the jets shifting equatorward as happens during so called sudden stratospheric warming events.
Cloudiness and albedo both began to increase as the jets started to shift back equatorward.
The Arctic Oscillation turned more negative around the same time and has now become very negative.
Since the same processes all presumably occurred in the MWP it cannot be anything to do with human emissions.
So, there are lots of varied bits of persuasive evidence that have drawn me to these conclusions. We need some more observations to clarify the issue once and for all but I am confident that the process is already in hand.

John Day
December 26, 2010 8:30 am

Wilde
> So, there are lots of varied bits of persuasive evidence that have drawn me to
> these conclusions. We need some more observations to clarify the issue once
> and for all but I am confident that the process is already in hand.
IANAC (I am not a climatologist), so all of that sounds reasonable to me. Is this your own theory? Does it have a name? (no idea can exist for long without a name). Do you have a write-up on it with the technical claims, specs and references? I would like to study some of your “stratospheric” concepts to learn more about them. (“You can observe a lot by watching” – Yogi Berra)

Stephen Wilde
December 26, 2010 9:43 am

John,
IANAC either.
It is my own but has no name yet as I’m not yet satisfied that it is complete. I’m building it step by step with the assistance of critics who make points that require me to refine it.
You can try my series of articles at climaterealists.com which record my gradual steps towards my proposed scenario.
This is the latest:
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6645

John Day
December 26, 2010 1:16 pm

Wilde
> This is the latest:
> http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6645
Ok, I downloaded the .pdf. Thanks!

Resourceguy
December 26, 2010 3:56 pm

Even if the solar cycle change observations are not enough to alter climate, the coincidence of these changes with a down cylce in the AMO will do the number… on all of us.

rbateman
December 26, 2010 6:48 pm

So why are both SDO and SOHO offline?
SDO claims a disk controller failed on the 19th. Fine. 15 minutes to swap in the spare while the backup server is promoted.
Is there anything else?

December 26, 2010 8:45 pm

rbateman says:
December 26, 2010 at 6:48 pm
SDO claims a disk controller failed on the 19th. Fine. 15 minutes to swap in the spare while the backup server is promoted. Is there anything else?
the drives need to be “rebuilt” before we start back to work again – because in some cases there were two drives bad in the same “LUN” – and that will take 3+ days. So perhaps by Monday we will be back.
But likely not before.

barbee
December 26, 2010 11:15 pm

So we hear-that we should plan for drought.
So we see-that we should plan for flood.
I shall plan for both. And pray for neither.
Follow fools, if you will, but do so knowingly.

Brian H
December 27, 2010 1:44 am

John Day;
Aaggh! A Yogi misquote!
“‘You can see a lot just by looking.”
No messing with YB’s verbs, please.

John Day
December 27, 2010 5:25 am

H

December 27, 2010 at 1:44 am
John Day;
Aaggh! A Yogi misquote!
“‘You can see a lot just by looking.”
No messing with YB’s verbs, please.

Au contraire, mon frère, I think you’ve got it wrong. YCOALBW is the title of Yogi’s book. Or perhaps he’s misquoting himself?
http://www.amazon.com/You-Can-Observe-Lot-Watching/dp/0470079924
My favorite is about a restaurant that Yogi used to frequent. He said, “Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded”. Great wisdom disguised as nonsense.

James F. Evans
December 27, 2010 10:24 am

Well, time has past, so I will only engage in brief discussion of the “reconnection” paper presented by Dr. Svalgaard:
http://www.leif.org/EOS/Plasma-Reconnection.pdf
From the paper:
“To an excellent approximation, magnetic fieldlines are frozen to the plasma and magnetic flux is conserved.”
Many, if not almost all “magnetic reconnection” papers rely on the above “approximation”, a priori assumption, where magnetic fieldlines are “frozen in” to infinitely conductive plasma.
But it is not an “excellent” approximation, rather, it is a misleading a priori assumption, because both space plasmas and laboratory plasmas are tenuous, not fluid, and have resistivity. The lower the percentage of ionized particles in the body of tenuous plasma, the higher the resistivity, but never in tenuous plasma, space or laboratory is resistivity zero.
Now, I mentioned that the paper does mention use the term, “electromagnetic”, but as is true to form for “magnetic reconnection” papers, the exception proves the rule.
The paper uses the term “anomalous resistivity” to describe regions of higher resistivity in bodies of plasma, as if resistivity is rare in bodies of tenuous plasma, but that is false and, again, misleading because zero resistivity does not exist in tenuous plasmas.
The elephant in the room is that when ions, electrons (charged particles, each with electric force), and magnetic fields interact, and charged particles are accelerated, thus, demonstrating electric fields exist, this is an environment where the fundamental force of electromagnetism holds sway.
So-called “magnetic reconnection” is an obfiscation.
Current sheets are referenced in the paper, but current sheets are the result of electric fields. when “magnetic reconnection” papers discuss “electron dissipation regions”, really, in point of fact, the papers are discussing electron acceleration regions.
Magnetic fields can deflect or change charged particle direction, but they don’t accelerate charged particles, electric fields do.
The paper discusses “magnetic self-organization” without any reference to Irving Langmuir, who first observed and described the self-organizing ability of plasma and identified such self-organizing ability as a function of the principles of electromagnetism.
Yet Zweibel & Yamada make no mention of Langmuir’s prior work. This is tantamount to academic fraud.
But let’s take a look at a UCLA paper, that while is a “reconnection” paper, at least is more forthright about the role of electric fields in the so-called “magnetic reconnection” process:
The paper employs the study of magnetic fields to, in part, derive a resolution of the charged particle current flows. As the authors contend resolution of the current flow is important for understanding the larger system. This fits well with what I’ve been pointing out: Mapping the movement of charged particles is critical for understanding the dynamics when two bodies of plasma collide. The authors conducted the experiment where bodies of magnetized plasma were collided within a background magnetized plasma. This is a laboratory experiment which offers a rough approximation of space plasma dynamics.
Space plasma environments tend to be “rivers within larger rivers of plasma”. Or distinct, structured flows of plasma within larger flows of plasma. In numerous instances, these structured flows of plasma take the form of magnetic flux tubes.
A quoted passage from the UCLA paper:
Caption for first image: “Three dimensional field lines taken from a volumetric data set in an experiment in which two laser produced plasmas collide. Data was acquired at 30,000 locations in a 3D volume in the LAPD device. Shown are the magnetic fields due to Alfven wave currents. The two Carbon targets that the lpp plasmas originate at are seen in the background. The “sparkles” are the induced electric field calculated from -dA/dt. Note that the induced field is largest in the reconnection region at the center of the image. The data is acquired 5 us after the targets are struck and 6.56 meters and 65.6 cm away. There is a background He plasma (n = 2X10^12 cm-3, B0z (not shown) = 600G)”
To highlight: “The “sparkles” are the induced electric field calculated from -dA/dt.”
http://plasma.physics.ucla.edu/pages/gallery.html
And here is a close up on the image showing the outbreaking of electric fields, “sparkles”, where the plasma density and magnetic stress is greatest:
http://plasma.physics.ucla.edu/images/gallery/BEz656-t512.jpg
The outbreaking of electric fields, mini- parallel electric fields, is due to the charged particles’ electric force interacting with the magnetic field. The maximum electric field breakout is in regions of maximum magnetic field stress and maximum charged particle density — it’s charged particle density that determines magnetic field strength.
The higher the charged particle density & magnetic field stress, the greater the formation of electric fields (arrayed mini-parallel electric fields).
It’s important to examine the UCLA image of the breakout of electric fields in relation to magnetic fields — the two forces are inter-related as Maxwell’s equations amply demonstrate.
This is all a product of electromagnetism, not some unquantified process of “magnetic reconnection”. The term, “magnetic reconnection”, is an attempt to obscure the fact that all these interactions happen within an environment where the Fundamental Force of Electromagnetism predominates.

December 27, 2010 11:06 am

James F. Evans says:
December 27, 2010 at 10:24 am
Well, time has past, so I will only engage in brief discussion of the “reconnection”
You didn’t learn much. Continue to study the paper.

Chris Reeve
December 29, 2010 5:59 am

Re: ““The core, which is where the energy is generated by gravitational compression of hydrogen to fusion temperature and pressure, is 14.5 million K and is by far the hottest densest portion of the sun.”
But Dave, according to the “Thunderbolts” website, the dark sunspots are a window into the interior of the sun, proving that the inside is cooler than the outside!
Open the pod bay doors, HAL.”
The real and ONLY question of any merit here is whether or not the electric universe theorists can facilitate the development of a solar model which makes accurate predictions. And just how accurate are those predictions?
We live within an era of social networking. If it CAN be done, people should expect that it eventually WILL be done.
What is startlingly missing from all of these forum discussions of the electric sun hypothesis is an analysis of the claims being made. Wal Thornhill and Don Scott are making the case for a plasma glow discharge model for the Sun — a Crook’s tube, essentially — where the power input is an electron drift current, and the geometry is spherical. Within the EU view, in theory, we should be able to accurately predict the Sun’s behavior by monitoring the electrical current arriving into the heliosphere along interstellar filaments (which are already observed at the 21-cm wavelength).
Anybody who thinks that EU theory is preposterous should really be speaking to the debate of whether or not these ideas can be codified into a working, predictive model … Because if they can achieve that, then people who are ridiculing them are just throwing up noise.
Any model which can predict solar eruptions will ultimately win. Is anybody here claiming that it cannot be done?

Chris Reeve
December 29, 2010 6:06 am

Re: “You’re conflating temperature, an intensive property of matter, with energy, an extensive property of matter.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intensive_and_extensive_properties
Temperature, being intensive, does not depend on the amount of matter. A gram of water can have the same temperature as an entire ocean.
Heat energy, measured in joules or calories, being extensive, does depend on the amount of matter, in an additive way. A gram of water, even if heated to a million degrees, does not contain as much energy as an entire ocean of water.
Conservation Law: Energy is always conserved. There is no conservation law for Temperature.”
In your citation of traditional physics, you’ve conferred an artificial respectability to the “new physics” explanation of magnetic reconnection which was the point of the criticism, as well as the conventional explanation for this *enigmatic* observation of temperature at the corona.
What laws of physics can you cite to validate magnetic reconnection?

Chris Reeve
December 29, 2010 6:11 am

Re: “All the sun’s energy is instead mysteriously transmitted in an unmeasurable way through space!”
It’s neither mysterious nor “unmeasurable”. Our radio telescope astronomers already observe the interstellar filaments which connect the stars. You just choose to not read those papers. Look up Gerrit Verschuur.

Chris Reeve
December 29, 2010 6:44 am

Re: “@pochas
> according to the “Thunderbolts” website, the dark sunspots are a window
> into the interior of the sun, proving that the inside is cooler than the outside!
Your “window” metaphor is completely wrong. “Window shade” would be more consistent with the underlying solar physics: sunspots are highly magnetic regions on the photosphere, in excess of 1500 Gauss, where the magnetism actually blocks the upwelling radiation and prevents its escape. Hence it’s cooler above the spots, which makes them look dark. The surrounding, brighter photosphere is actually more transparent to this upwelling radiation.”
The conventional model for the Sun proposes that magnetic fields are second-order effects even as theorists observe the entire electromagnetic surface of the Sun behaving as a single electromagnetic entity.
The notion that sunspot flux is dominated by the convective motions of supergranules treats the magnetic fields as though they can be separated from their electric current causes. We should all be clear that this is a thought experiment. It’s a hypothetical treatment of the magnetic fields.
When you see a magnetic field — whether it be in a laboratory or in space — a theorist or experimenter has a *burden* to consider the fundamental inference that it is the result of an electric current. To ignore this is an expression of an ideology — and in this case, it is one driven by cosmological necessity.

Chris Reeve
December 29, 2010 7:16 am

Re: “I have a question for the electric sun people… I constantly see them purporting that, like on Earth, fusion is an effective energy sink, i.e. it takes more energy to get fusion going than you get out of it… therefore requiring a huge amount of electrical energy being transported to the sun through some mysterious means I can’t quite figure out, given that over 14 billion years, any widely distributed energy in the vacuum would have been all gobbled up… I digress.”
When comparing cosmologies, we have to take a philosophical approach. That means that we do not use the claims of one cosmology to evaluate the claims of another. Discussions of electricity in space are, to be clear, not bound by a Big Bang. This would be a “steady-state universe”.
The electric universe has its own mechanisms for creating and organizing charged particles in interstellar space. Look up Marklund Convection and critical ionization velocity. z-pinches and Birkeland Currents behave as ion vacuums. And anybody who has worked with lifters knows that neutral matter can easily get dragged into this activity.
And by the way, the interstellar electrical transport mechanism is not as mysterious as you propose. In fact, it can be explained with the right-hand rule and the fact that plasma filaments exhibit both long-range attraction, as well as short-range repulsion. This phenomenon is well understood in the plasma laboratory. These filaments attract one another with the strength of the electric force. And, unlike the gravitational force, there is no limit to their reach. This mechanism extends the electric force to infinite distances.
Keep in mind that Gerrit Verscuur — one of the world’s most famous radio astronomers — already observes these interstellar filaments and their CIV’s. And it is conventional theorists who would prefer to keep many of these “anomalous high-velocity clouds” anomalous, for they refuse to admit that the inferred redshift velocities at 35 km/s and 50 km/s are in fact critical ionization velocities.
Re: “How can you possibly assume that’s a valid concept though, given that the human energy input is needed specifically to provide the things that a stellar core provides… high temperature and pressure, conducive to producing fusion. It was my understanding that once the reaction was triggered, it was sustainable ONLY through maintaining high temp and pressure.”
The thing is, we can reproduce the core functionality of the Sun in the plasma laboratory without the need for a thermonuclear core. That — and the anti-correlation which has been observed between sunspots and neutrinos — suggests that the thermonuclear activity is occurring simply where the temperatures permit it. Many of these features which people observe to be enigmatic to conventional models — like the inverse-temperature at the corona — are in fact *required* by the plasma glow discharge model for the Sun.
Re: “Is that fundamentally wrong? Does it require more electricity or energy, sans triggering containment and thermoregulation, to MAINTAIN a fusion reaction than it produces?”
Very possibly.
Re: “Because otherwise, I can easily imagine that there’s an intrastellar/intrasolar electrical component, but the concept of pulling in essential unimaginable amounts of electricity from the ether for all of the stars in the galaxy… where exactly did you say all that electricity comes from (laws of thermodynamics and all that)? And why hasn’t the Universe already reached a final entropic stage?”
Our solar system is electrically connected to its galaxy, and the galaxies are electrically connected to one another. This is why filaments pervade both interstellar and intergalactic spaces.
People need to get over this notion that — without learning plasma physics — they are going to undermine plasma cosmology’s foundation. Plasma cosmology was created by Hannes Alfven, who received the Nobel Physics prize for his creation of magnetohydrodynamics (the plasma models). This is a theory which remains an ongoing subject of peer-reviewed publication in IEEE’s Transactions on Plasma Sciences. Anthony Peratt is a former adviser to the Department of Energy and an experimenter on the world’s premier plasma laboratory — the z-machine. These are clearly the guys who are working with plasmas in the laboratory. At the point where astrophysicists and conventional theorists are claiming that they don’t understand plasmas, people need to carefully consider these points. These are not the type of people who we should be dismissing.
The proper approach would be to first learn how plasmas tend to behave in the laboratory, then learn what plasma cosmology and electric universe propose, and then learn the arguments on both sides of the debate. Once you fully understand how observations are inferred for both cosmologies, then you have a basic handle for what’s being said.
And at that point, you can agree or disagree. But, there exists a burden to do some minimal background reading before people come to conclusions. Satisfy yourself that you understand the theory before criticizing it, and it will reduce the forum noise.
Keep in mind that 99% of what we see with our telescopes is matter in the plasma state. The models for plasmas do indeed matter.

Chris Reeve
December 29, 2010 7:45 am

Re: “The paper discusses “magnetic self-organization” without any reference to Irving Langmuir, who first observed and described the self-organizing ability of plasma and identified such self-organizing ability as a function of the principles of electromagnetism.
Yet Zweibel & Yamada make no mention of Langmuir’s prior work. This is tantamount to academic fraud.”
Yes, also consider another example of Jack Zirker’s summary of the solar model in “Journey from the Center of the Sun”. His relevant “biography” for Hannes Alfven on page 145 sees fit to only mention Alfven’s creation of a political satire titled, “The Great Computer”.
Zirker did not find it necessary to mention Alfven’s creation of the plasma models, nor his creation of the competing plasma cosmology, throughout the entire book. Neither is there ever any mention by Zirker that electric currents and magnetic fields — in the laboratory — tend to go hand-in-hand.
And, given these omissions, it also naturally follows that Alfven’s relentless criticisms of the way in which the plasma models were being applied by astrophysicists has been completely sanitized from the “official story” of plasma physics.
He would repeatedly state about the notion of the frozen-in magnetic field concept which is popular amongst conventional theorists:

“I thought that the frozen-in concept was very good from a pedagogical point of view, and indeed it became very popular. In reality, however, it was not a good pedagogical concept but a dangerous “pseudopedagogical concept.” By “pseudopedagogical” I mean a concept which makes you believe that you understand a phenomenon whereas in reality you have drastically misunderstood it.
[..]
At that time (1950) we already knew enough to understand that a frozen-in treatment of the magnetosphere was absurd. But I did not understand why the frozen-in concept was not applicable.
[..]
In 1963, Fälthammar and I published the second edition of Cosmical Electrodynamics [12] together. [..] We analyzed the consequences of this in some detail, and demonstrated with a number of examples that in the presence of an E|| the frozen-in model broke down. On [12, p. 191] we wrote:
“In low density plasmas the concept of frozen-in lines of force is questionable. The concept of frozen-in lines of force may be useful in solar physics where we have to do with high- and medium-density plasmas, but may be grossly misleading if applied to the magnetosphere of the earth. To plasma in interstellar space it should be applied with some care.”

And yet, everywhere you look, you see cosmic plasmas treated as having frozen-in magnetic fields. Zirker’s text proposes that magnetic forces are subservient to convective forces on the Sun. But, there’s never any attempt to prove that it is so. It is merely an assumption claimed by conventional theorists. They never mention that plasmas and electromagnetic forces can reproduce ALL of the features of the Sun without the need for inferring convection at all. Theorists infer convection on the Sun in order to satisfy the cosmological framework.

Chris Reeve
December 29, 2010 8:57 am

Re: “So go see what they believe happens. [Except, of course, it doesn’t]. There are many theories about coronal heating. In fact, too many. There may be more than one mechanism. In general terms it works like this: The solar atmosphere is permeated by a magnetic field. The lower part of that field is rooted in the photosphere where violent motions [convection] move the field around, at times twisting and shearing the field. A twisted field has more energy in it than a quiet, regular, ‘straight’ field, and is notoriously unstable [as anymore trying to build a fusion machine will know] and explodes easily, heating the atmosphere.”
Perhaps, but what causes the twisting? Is it okay if we talk about the behavior of laboratory plasmas?
In the laboratory, plasmas conducting electrical current *naturally* form filaments. Furthermore, these filaments exhibit both long-range attraction and short-range repulsion with one another. In laboratory plasma physics, *this* is what causes the twisting morphology. Why does your explanation ignore that important fundamental observation of plasmas?
Re: “That is one reason why the corona is hot. Another is that waves are generated by all that surface motion. As these waves travel upwards in the rapidly thinning corona, the wave steepens and eventually breaks into a ‘shock wave’ also heating the plasma [much like cracking of a whip].”
By the way, waves have failed to explain the motions of spicules, so I’m not sure why we are still talking about them. See Zirker’s “Journey from the Center of the Sun” (pages 144 – 146).
Re: “A third reason is that the magnetic field points in different directions and at the boundaries between differently directed magnetic fields, the fields can reconnect [as we have direct observed by spacecraft about the Earth].”
But, your preferred theory is redundant of laboratory plasma physics principles which pertain to Birkeland Currents. Don Scott goes to great length to explain how these two inferences can be confused from the data. You are ignoring all of these arguments, and leaving the impression that there exists just one inference that deserves mention. It’s misleading.
And by the way, you cannot “directly observe” a reconnection event. Reconnection is an *inference* for the observations. It is no more directly observable than magnetic field lines. You should take care to distinguish between observations and inferences.
Re: “Such changes on the magnetic fields can create electric currents that also can heat the plasma. so, many ways to skin that cat, and possibly they are all active at the same time.”
But, of course, what is specifically NOT allowed is to propose that electric currents are the underlying cause for the Sun’s magnetic fields. That would be so utterly ridiculous that we should *never* propose it as an inference for our observations of large-scale cosmic magnetic fields. If I am following along properly, the consensus that it is absurd essentially proves that it cannot be happening. After all, we would surely see the electron drift through the heliosphere if it was there … riiiiiiight?
Re: “When solar physicists say they “don’t understand how the corona is heated” it general means that they can’t agree on which one of several possibilities is the most dominant [maybe there is single dominant one].”
What’s fascinating is that the model has remained so flexible, and yet, simultaneously, so impervious to comparison with other competing models. If we are to believe advocates for the standard solar model, it is perhaps best described as “vaguely perfect”.
(BTW, it sounds as though you’ve been reading your Tim Thompson. Don Scott replied to all of Thompson’s claims some years ago.)

Chris Reeve
December 29, 2010 10:45 am

Re: “As I watch the Sun today, I see nothing that is out of the ordinary over the past several thousand years [as far as our data goes].”
The anti-correlation between sunspots and neutrinos is a serious problem.
The failure of the solar wind to appreciably decelerate even as it passes the Earth’s orbit remains unresolved, and a major problem.
Keep in mind that there remain no discernible connections in the transition region of the Sun’s surface, where the plasma temperature transition from 50,000 to 500,000 Kelvin. Why is that? Is this not what one would expect to see if the corona’s heat was the result of an external power supply?
Re: “In our limited lifespans things may look unique, but with a longer view, it seems to me to be just business as usual. Perhaps there is a new element, namely that we have never been able to observe as well as now, and that could lead to a better understanding, and even stronger predictive powers at some time in the future.”
It’s clear to many people by now that the Standard Solar Model is not the only model which we can build. To presuppose that the competing plasma-based solar model cannot be made to perform better than the conventional model is not the behavior of an objective theorist. An honest theorist would want to build it and refine it before coming to any conclusion — or at least encourage others to do so …
You seem intent on swaying people before the model is even codified. What’s the point of that?

James F. Evans
January 1, 2011 12:25 am

It’s a little past midnight, but it’s still not to late, to be objective.
Science has seen many assumptions.
Good Science follows the evidence where it leads.
The evidence for the electric Sun is not in.
I don’t know.
But shouldn’t we look for the facts the best we can, and be open to the evidence,
even if it disagrees with the assumed knowledge we think we know?

Neo
January 5, 2011 1:51 pm

So exactly how will the EPA ever get back any respectability when, after it’s endangerment finding, the Earth goes into an Ice Age.

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