Solar Geomagnetic Ap Index Hits Zero

This is something you really don’t expect to see this far into solar cycle 24.

But there it is, the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite shows the sun as a cueball:

The Ap index being zero, indicates that the sun’s magnetic field is low, and its magneto is idling rather than revving up as it should be on the way to solar max. True, it’s just a couple of data points, but as NOAA’s SWPC predicts the solar cycle, we should be further along instead of having a wide  gap:

The Ap index generally follows along with the sunspot count, which is a proxy of solar activity.

And here’s the daily Ap geomagnetic data. The Ap is bumping along the bottom:

Graph by Jan Alvestad

 

The long term Ap has been on a downtrend, ever since there was a step change in October 2005:

The overall data looks pretty anemic:

This page is normally updated once a day by Jan Alvestad. All values are preliminary.

[Solar Terrestrial Activity Report]

h/t to Joe D’Aleo and thanks to Jan Alvestad for keeping this data and plotting it.

Solar and geomagnetic data (last month)

Date Measured

solar flux

Sunspot number Planetary A index K indices (3-hour intervals) Min-max solar wind speed (km/sec) Number of flares (events)
STAR NOAA STAR NOAA Daily low – high Planetary Boulder C M X
20101222 77.7 12 0 0.0 0 0-0 00000000 00001100 287-381
20101221 77.9 12 0 1.3 1 0-3 01001000 11101100 347-457
20101220 77.9 12 0 8.5 8 3-18 13222223 13222223 346-479
20101219 80.9 11 0 1.4 1 0-6 10000002 11000112 345-415
20101218 80.5 0 0 2.3 2 0-5 11001001 11101211 353-446
20101217 81.6 11 11 3.1 3 0-7 21001111 31001221 383-524
20101216 84.1 11 23 4.6 5 0-9 21210111 21220221 433-567
20101215 86.9 22 11 8.9 9 3-27 34111111 44222211 544-655 1
20101214 90.3 34 33 11.1 11 5-18 12233323 13233323 491-757 1
20101213 87.7 49 46 5.4 5 2-9 22200022 32211212 385-611
20101212 89.4 52 23 3.8 4 0-15 00001312 00001422 293-445
20101211 86.9 23 25 0.9 1 0-3 00000001 01001001 284-354
20101210 88.4 40 33 0.3 0 0-2 00000000 00000110 321-349
20101209 86.8 54 22 1.8 2 0-3 11000001 11200110 341-404
20101208 87.2 48 22 2.8 3 0-7 11001021 12111222 337-445
20101207 87.1 31 34 3.9 4 2-7 10102111 01112211 342-385
20101206 88.5 28 35 2.4 2 0-4 00011111 01121121 269-351
20101205 87.9 42 47 0.8 1 0-4 00000001 00011101 270-274
20101204 87.4 52 48 0.6 1 0-3 00100000 00101010 270-314
20101203 86.8 47 27 1.1 1 0-5 01000000 02000000 270-337
20101202 86.5 38 32 2.6 3 0-6 21001000 11000110 339-360
20101201 86.5 44 25 1.8 2 0-4 10000011 10100210 338-358 1
20101130 86.4 36 24 3.0 3 2-4 01011110 12021110 345-402
20101129 82.5 24 31 3.1 3 0-5 00111110 01221111 348-437
20101128 80.1 34 34 6.1 6 0-12 22101231 23212221 384-460
20101127 76.5 38 11 11.9 12 0-67 00001164 00001243 294-520
20101126 76.2 12 23 1.6 2 0-4 00001111 00001110 344-390
20101125 77.9 25 22 3.6 4 2-6 12111110 02112110 382-477
20101124 75.8 23 11 4.4 4 3-6 11111122 11221221 426-518
20101123 75.3 12 12 7.8 8 3-15 21311332 21312321 452-537

This page is normally updated once a day by Jan Alvestad. All values are preliminary.

[Solar Terrestrial Activity Report]

0 0 votes
Article Rating

Discover more from Watts Up With That?

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

200 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Pascvaks
December 24, 2010 5:03 am

Dr. Svalgaard
As fruitless as it may seem to keep repeating yourself, you are having a tremendous effect. Without you we would all be off with Tinkerbell in Wonderland. Merry Christmas! God Bless You and Yours. And, a Very Happy New Year!

Holugu
December 24, 2010 5:25 am

Roger Longstaff says:
December 24, 2010 at 2:32 am
There can be no argument about the theory of thermonuclear fusion – we tested this to destruction with the hydrogen bomb!
True, but I remember myself as a kid (or a bit grown kid… a teenager, 14) giving a lecture in 1968 about the controlled fusion progress and the harnessing it, that seemed to be just around the corner. It is still there around the corner, darn it!
As the stellar theory goes, the observations do yield results that in many instances contradict the fusion model.
BTW, did you know that some high energy lightning bolts can not only produce x-ray and gamma rays showers, but also apparently “transmute” elements? I had a HD crash recently, so lost a reference, but someone noticed that beside the x-ray/gamma shower, there was an unaccounted presence of isotopes, if I recall correctly, of sulfur and kalium. Which is curious, I seem to recall a segment from Homer’s Odyssey:
“Zeus thundered and hurled his bolt upon the ship, and she quivered from stem to stern, smitten by the bolt of Zeus, and was filled with sulfurous smoke.”
There is a few more of similar utterances there. You may not need a nuclear furnace to transmute elements. Electricity may do the trick too.

Editor
December 24, 2010 5:51 am

I wrote a letter to the Concord (NH) Monitor about “What happened to the sun spots?” a couple days ago and they “printed” it on the web this morning. Their 250 word limit made me write it more as something to lead to discussion and not be a definitive tome, which is fine.
I’ll post links to my references as the discussion there develops.
Leif, thanks for the L&P update, I referred to their work, but briefly, as it will be a new concept to most readers, I’ll be adding more in the discussion. I’ll be less certain about the solar/climate link in some of my followup.
Also, Leif wrote: Solon, it saddens my heart to see the low level of scientific literacy that you and so many others [of many stripes] have sunk to.
One reason for writing the letter is that my daughter pointed me to an editorial asking who was going to pay for mitigating sea level rise ala the work going on in Norfolk VA. That’s due to Norfolk and filled wetlands sinking, not the oceans rising. The editorial had many other things wrong, so I figure I better “help them out.”
My letter is at http://www.concordmonitor.com/article/230687/what-happened-to-the-sun-spots

What happened to the sun spots?
Eric Werme, Boscawen
By For the Monitor
December 24, 2010
While the weather focus is on snow (which is everywhere but here, it seems) and the climate focus is on CO2 and temperatures, there’s another item that is becoming more and more fascinating and is worth as much attention. Four days ago the sun lost its sunspots. I think a couple appeared today, but the official count is still zero. This was unexpected, we’re supposed to be in middle of a climb to the next solar maximum. In 2008, expectations were for a count now of over 100 heading for a maximum in 2012. Current expectations are for a maximum count of only 64 in mid 2013.
Who cares? People have looked to sunspots as a climate indicator for longer than CO2, going back to Sir William Hershel’s 1801 report “Influence of Solar Activity on State of Wheat Market in Medieval England” linking poor harvests with cold, damp weather and low sunspot counts. So far, no one has proposed a widely accepted mechanism.
It gets more interesting, in a separate phenomenon sunspots are cooling and getting fainter and may completely fade from view by 2016. No one knows what that means, but it may match the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century.
We’re going to learn a lot in the next few decades, it’s a great time to be a solar scientist. It may not be so great for our climate.

That awful editorial:
http://www.concordmonitor.com/article/228783/who-will-pay-to-keep-the-sea-at-bay
They even back up there claim with this from one of my least favorite institutions:

Last year, New Hampshire’s Climate Change Policy Task Force told Seacoast communities and regional planning commissions to assume a 1½-foot rise in sea levels by 2050 and an increase of three to five feet by the end of the century. Some estimates peg the maximum rise at 6 feet or more. Communities, the task force said, should take immediate action to prepare for rising sea levels.

Virtually no mention of hurricane risk!

December 24, 2010 5:57 am

Leif Svalgaard says:
December 23, 2010 at 8:05 pm
It all depends on if the Livingston & Penn effect holds up or not. If it does, we’ll have a Maunder Minimum, if not, just a ‘normal’ small cycle, like 100 years ago
That’s a big statement Leif, especially as you have stated not that long ago we are not heading into a grand minimum. The L&P effect is just code for grand minimum…nothing new here, but I would be interested in learning how you foresee a possible Maunder minimum episode, this type of minimum occurs very rarely over the Holocene?

Edim
December 24, 2010 6:15 am

Leif Svalgaard says:
December 24, 2010 at 1:53 am
“Perhaps there is a new element, namely that we have never been able to observe as well as now, and that could lead to a better understanding, and even stronger predictive powers at some time in the future.”
There are many elements that we have never been able to observe and there are many that we observed but still do not understand completely (or we think we understand but it ain’t so).
The problem is and has always been, the consensus (established) science is a major obstacle to better understanding.

James F. Evans
December 24, 2010 6:46 am

A peer-reviewed paper, Astronomy Letters, 2005:
ELECTRON ACCELERATION BY ELECTRIC FIELDS NEAR THE FOOTPRINTS
OF CURRENT-CARRYING CORONAL MAGNETIC LOOPS
V. V. ZAITSEV
Institute of Applied Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences
Abstract: “We analyze the electric fields that arise at the footpoints of a coronal magnetic loop from the interaction between a convective flow of partially ionized plasma and the magnetic field of the loop. Such a situation can take place when the loop footpoints are at the nodes of several supergranulation cells. In this case, the neutral component of the converging convective flows entrain electrons and ions in different ways, because these are magnetized differently. As a result, a charge separating electric field emerges at the loop footpoints, which can efficiently accelerate particles inside the magnetic loop under appropriate conditions. We consider two acceleration regimes: impulsive (as applied to simple loop flares) and pulsating (as applied to solar and stellar radio pulsations).We have calculated the fluxes of accelerated electrons and their characteristic energies. We discuss the role of the return current when dense beams of accelerated particles are injected into the corona. The results obtained are considered in light of the currently available data on the corpuscular radiation from solar flares.”
http://www.springerlink.com/content/d32j212710843216/
“INTRODUCTION
Much of the energy in solar and stellar flares is released in the form of energetic particles. The bulk of the electrons and ions in impulsive solar flares are accelerated to energies of 100 keV and 100 MeV, respectively (Miller et al. 1997) and produce hard X-ray and gamma-ray line emission.”
Many of these “energetic particles” eventually interact with the Earth’s magnetosphere and potentially effect Earth’s energy balance, one expression of which is climate — In other words, the Sun’s over all energy level effects the Earth’s climate.
Is Dr. V. V. Zaitsev of the Institute of Applied Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, one of the “usual suspects pushing pseudo-science and nonsense”?

coturnix19
December 24, 2010 6:58 am

REPLY: “And the Sun’s corona is millions of degrees hotter than the photosphere. These simple observations point to the energy source of the Sun being external. ”
Really? What rubbish. – Anthony
————-
well, it is millions of kelvins hot, that’s a fact (unless of course cagwarmists the adjusted data here too). Now, the explanation may be a rubbish, but at least it gives lots to think of.

R.S.Brown
December 24, 2010 7:41 am

For those interested, here’s the monthly sunspot
counts from 1749 into 1995:
http://www.matpack.de/Info/Astronomy/Sunspots_Monthly.html
It’s my impression that the monthly counts before 1770
aren’t 100% reliable.
Safe and Happy Holidays too all !

BillyBob
December 24, 2010 7:43 am

“Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum ”
http://www.icecap.us/
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/12/new-paper-solar-uv-activity-increased.html
“A peer-reviewed paper published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) show a significant increase since the Maunder minimum in the 1600’s during the Little Ice Age and shows further increases over the 19th and 20th centuries. The TSI is estimated to have increased 1.25 W/m2 since the Maunder minimum as shown in the first graph below. Use of the Stefan-Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W/m2 increase in solar activity could account for an approximate .44C global temperature increase [the HADCRU global warming from 1850 to 2000 is .55C]. A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum increased by almost 50% over the 400 years since the Maunder minimum “

James F. Evans
December 24, 2010 8:11 am

Dr. Svalgaard wrote: “Reconnection is observed in space and in the laboratory, e.g. [the Princeton website]”
http://mrx.pppl.gov/
But the Princeton website uses “frozen-in” magnetic fields in an infinitely conductive plasma as an a priori assumption, a false assumption, one that fails to describe space plasma or laboratory plasma.
From the Princeton website:
“In plasma physics, it is well known that magnetic field lines are “frozen-in” to an infinitely conductive plasma… this means that infinitely conductive plasmas will not diffuse across field lines and mix.”
This is a false statement.
In opposition, real space plasma and laboratory plasma has been repeatedly observed & measured to have resistivity, and, thus, can sustain an electric field, i.e., the V.V. Zaitsev paper linked to in my previous comment and numerous other peer-reviewed published papers.
This is the framework of the analysis & interpretation employed by scientists studying the Electric Double Layer process in laboratory plasma physics and space plasma physics.
The Electric Double Layer analysis & interpretation employs formal mathematical equations which encompass & constrain all the forces and particles encountered in the plasma environment.
These astrophysicists subscribe to the Current Disruption Theory, which encompasses the Electric Double Layer process.
Dr. Svalgaard, why do you cite the Princeton website when the premise of its experiments does not reflect what plasma physicists have observed in nature, both in laboratory plasma and space plasma?
In regards to the Princeton experiments, how can a theoretical model which relies on an a priori assumption which doesn’t exist in nature, and, thus, is misleading because it fails to consider all the forces present in nature, i.e., electric fields, still be a valuble analytical tool for understanding how plasmas behave in nature?
Doesn’t Science want to understand plasma as it actually behaves in laboratory experiments and in space plasmas?

December 24, 2010 8:58 am

Holugu says:
December 24, 2010 at 4:28 am
Leif, the image you posted has no “lines”. What it shows is what plasma physics terms double layers.
A double layer is a sheet [or layer] of one charge adjacent to a sheet of the opposite charge. The electric field is between the two sheets and the acceleration of particles would be from one sheet to the other. Double layers are perpendicular to the magnetic field so if the arches shown are double layers the magnetic field would be not from one spot to the next, but perpendicular to the graceful lines shown. Draw me a simple sketch showing where the magnetic field is and where the double layers are.
Holugu says:
December 24, 2010 at 5:25 am
As the stellar theory goes, the observations do yield results that in many instances contradict the fusion model.
I do not know of even a single one. Show us the ‘many’.
You may not need a nuclear furnace to transmute elements.
You have this backwards. It is not the furnace that transmutes. It is the transmutation that is the furnace.
Ric Werme says:
December 24, 2010 at 5:51 am
What happened to the sun spots?
Thanks for bringing this to a wider audience.
Geoff Sharp says:
December 24, 2010 at 5:57 am
It all depends on if the Livingston & Penn effect holds up or not. If it does, we’ll have a Maunder Minimum, if not, just a ‘normal’ small cycle, like 100 years ago”
That’s a big statement Leif, especially as you have stated not that long ago we are not heading into a grand minimum.

It is a statement with two ‘ifs’. If L&P holds up and the sunspots disappear, then most people would compare that to the Maunder Minimum and and claim that we have a Grand minimum. I’ve said that it is way too early to conclude that.
The L&P effect is just code for grand minimum…nothing new here,
L&P is an observed effect, not ‘code’ for anything. Whether it persists long enough that people would say we are in Grand Minimum because no spots have been seen for decades is unknown at this point.
If a Grand Minimum is due to L&P then solar activity will not come to a halt, it will continue, there will still be a solar wind, still high-latitude aurorae, still cosmic ray modulation [as was observed during the last two Grand Minima, Maunder and Spoerer].
but I would be interested in learning how you foresee a possible Maunder minimum episode, this type of minimum occurs very rarely over the Holocene?
I don’t know what you mean by ‘foresee’. I’m not into astrology or clairvoyance.
Edim says:
December 24, 2010 at 6:15 am
The problem is and has always been, the consensus (established) science is a major obstacle to better understanding.
Nonsense, mainstream science is our understanding of Nature.
James F. Evans says:
December 24, 2010 at 6:46 am
“We analyze the electric fields that arise at the footpoints of a coronal magnetic loop from the interaction between a convective flow of partially ionized plasma and the magnetic field of the loop.
is just what I have been trying to make you understand: neutral plasma moves across a magnetic field generating an electric field that drives a current.
Is Dr. V. V. Zaitsev of the Institute of Applied Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, one of the “usual suspects pushing pseudo-science and nonsense”?
No, you are. Zaitsev is subscribing [as he should] to the standard description of how these things work.
R.S.Brown says:
December 24, 2010 at 7:41 am
It’s my impression that the monthly counts before 1770 aren’t 100% reliable.
And right you are.
BillyBob says:
December 24, 2010 at 7:43 am
“Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum ”
You can find the paper here: http://www.leif.org/EOS/2010JA015431.pdf
A big problem with the paper [which invalidates the reconstruction and its conclusion] is the use of the Group Sunspot Number as the primary input to the process [see paragraph 11]. Since it is now becoming clear that the Group Sunspot Number before ~1875 is much [by some 40%] too low, the reconstructed irradiance before that time is also too low. My argument for GSN being too low can be found here: http://www.leif.org/research/AGU%20Fall%202010%20SH53B-03.pdf
Even Ken Schatten [one of the authors of the GSN] agrees with me on this, but that does not stop people from using the [now] obsolete GSN when it fits in their thinking and theories.

December 24, 2010 9:01 am

James F. Evans says:
December 24, 2010 at 8:11 am
Doesn’t Science want to understand plasma as it actually behaves in laboratory experiments and in space plasmas?
the Princeton website http://mrx.pppl.gov/ describes a laboratory experiment.

Ld Elon
December 24, 2010 9:09 am

What powers the sun? thee others power the sun!
Is She another? yes!

December 24, 2010 9:23 am

Geoff Sharp says:
December 24, 2010 at 5:57 am
“It all depends on if the Livingston & Penn effect holds up or not. If it does, we’ll have a Maunder Minimum, if not, just a ‘normal’ small cycle, like 100 years ago”
That’s a big statement Leif, especially as you have stated not that long ago we are not heading into a grand minimum.

Over on the now dead Dalton thread I explained my view on L&P [which is still a work in progress]. I’ll quote from there:
The L&P is a simple and natural explanation for why no spots were seen during the Maunder Minimum, and yet the cosmic ray modulation was on par with recent times. Here is McCracken and Beer: http://www.leif.org/research/McCracken-HMF2.png
They have the level wrong, but that does not affect the modulation. If one would claim that the level was correct, then the Maunder Minimum modulation [as a fraction of the whole] would be much larger than the modern values. Pick your poison.
Analyses [by Mayahara – Japanese Cedar trees] of 14C during both the Maunder and Spoerer minima also show a large variation. So, solar activity measured by its magnetic field and/or the number of CMEs [and their effect on cosmic rays] during those Grand Minima was considerable, and yet no spots were seen. To use your phrase, the speck ratio was extreme, in fact all spots had turned into specks. This is what the L&P effect is: the convection is weaker and specks do not grow to become spots. [All spots begin their life as specks which assemble into larger and larger spots, except when the L&P effect prevents them so doing so]. So, a grand minimum is not because the dynamo is disrupted and magnetic fields are scarce, but because the surface convection [causing the ‘percolation’] is weaker [we don’t know why – but perhaps during SC24 we’ll find out].
Your linked graph of the isotope modulation using a small sample of trees is not compelling.
What nonsense is that? The McCracken-Beer graph is derived from 10Be in ice cores. Mayahara’s cedar trees are just corroborating evidence [and their sample was not small – and in principle a single tree is all that is needed as we just need to measure the 14C value in each tree ring. 14C is a global thing, because of efficient atmospheric mixing]
It is suggesting that the magnetic modulation is the same during the Maunder as SC19.
It is not ‘suggesting’. The values are derived from measured values of the 10Be flux.
it would be like comparing the F10.7 flux value of SC24 to SC19, we know the levels will be vastly different.
Again, we measure that the modulation was the same, so we know that it was not vastly different.
What L&P measure and say [and remember Bill L is a good friend of mine and we exchange views and data on this] amounts to this: There is a distribution of spots from large to specks. This is the vertical width of the points on their graph. That whole distribution is steadily shifting downwards in magnetic fields and upwards in intensity. What gets shifted under 1500 G and above 1.000 is still there, but is not visible. This means that although magnetic activity will be slightly lower by the downward shift of the distribution, the effect on the spot count will be much more severe, as the smaller spots will no longer be counted, and the sunspot number is dominated by the small spots. See e.g. http://www.specola.ch/drawings/2003/loc-d20031030.JPG and look at group 266. It has about 10 larger spots and 50 specks.
As the specks disappears only larger spots will be left, like during the Maunder Minimum, where the reported spots were often large and single. All this makes eminent sense.
——
Whether is will come to pass is to be seen. So far, L&P are looking good:
http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png

James F. Evans
December 24, 2010 9:37 am

Dr. Svalgaard wrote: “the Princeton website http://mrx.pppl.gov/ describes a laboratory experiment.”
An experiment that uses an a priori assumption that doesn’t exist in nature (“frozen in” magnetic field lines within an infinitely conductive plasma)… isn’t much of an experiment.
Since Dr. Svalgaard cites a pseudo-scientific experiment for authority… it would seem Dr. Svalgaard is the suspect “pushing pseudo-science and nonsense.”

December 24, 2010 9:56 am

James F. Evans says:
December 24, 2010 at 9:37 am
“the Princeton website http://mrx.pppl.gov/ describes a laboratory experiment.”
An experiment that uses an a priori assumption that doesn’t exist in nature

Why don’t you study the link carefully. To prove that you have even looked, tell us what the 6th word on the page is.
From the link:
“In plasma physics, it is well known that magnetic field lines are “frozen-in” to an infinitely conductive plasma. Since charged plasma particles are confined to circular orbits around magnetic field lines, this means that infinitely conductive plasmas will not diffuse across field lines and mix. Conversely, two distinct field lines will remain separate since they cannot penetrate the intervening plasma. In most cases, solar and magnetospheric plasmas can be described very accurately with such a theory since they are both very conductive. However, straightforward application of the theory would remove the possibility of ejected solar plasma penetrating the magnetosphere since the plasmas would not be allowed to mix. Nevertheless, based on observations and known technological disruptions, we know that they must mix, but how?
The answer resides in the fact that when plasmas carrying oppositely directed magnetic field lines are brought together, a strong current sheet is established, in the presence of which even a vanishingly small amount of resistivity in a small volume can become important, allowing plasma diffusion and, thus, magnetic reconnection to occur.”
This is how Nature works. Experiment shows this. Theory explains this. All scientists in the field recognize this.

Jeff Mitchell
December 24, 2010 9:57 am

When somebody says the sun “should” be doing something, and it isn’t, what I believe they mean is this: based on our theory we expect X whatever X is. When they say “but it isn’t X” what they are saying is not that the observation is wrong, but rather their theory doesn’t account fully for X. Reality doesn’t bother to consult us or ask our permission to do what it does. Nor does it constrain itself to what we expect of it. The “should” is just a backhanded way of admitting we don’t know everything yet. And anyone who really believes the universe should behave in a particular way is going to be very disappointed.
But look at the progress in technology we’ve made without knowing everything. We don’t need to know everything to do what we do, but we can do more if we do. Our curiosity leads us ever onward even when there aren’t practical application for the answers we get.
I do have a question for the guys who advocate that the energy is supplied to the sun from external sources: if the energy is coming from an external source and not from within the sun, why are we not toasting at the temperature of the sun ourselves. Why does the energy go to the sun and ignore the planets? What is the source of the energy? Inquiring minds want to know.

December 24, 2010 10:09 am

James F. Evans says:
December 24, 2010 at 9:37 am
“the Princeton website http://mrx.pppl.gov/ describes a laboratory experiment.”
An experiment that uses an a priori assumption that doesn’t exist in nature

A good review of reconnection as understood today and observed in the laboratory and space can be found here: http://www.leif.org/EOS/Plasma-Reconnection.pdf
Study it carefully.

phlogiston
December 24, 2010 10:11 am

James F. Evans says:
December 24, 2010 at 9:37 am
Follow your linear Catholic logic,
A therefore B therefore C therefore D …
far enough and you will end up counting angels on the head of a pin.

Pamela Gray
December 24, 2010 10:20 am

For heaven’s sake, I’m just a grade school teacher, a special ed one at that, and I get what Leif is saying. Not because of his posts, but by reading the contents of the links and books he has recommended.
A dose of discernment is needed here regarding science (and for some a larger dose). Yes, some of science stinks in the catastrophic warming writings, but that doesn’t mean all science stinks.

ge0050
December 24, 2010 10:25 am

big difference between “infinitely conductive” and “very conductive”.
otherwise we could replace all the power lines and batteries with “infinitely conductive” high temperature plasma and solve the worlds energy problems over-night.

December 24, 2010 10:49 am

ge0050 says:
December 24, 2010 at 10:25 am
big difference between “infinitely conductive” and “very conductive”.
Look at it more realistically in terms of resistance [your lowly engineer would], the there is not much difference between a resistance of 0 ohm and that of 0.0000000000001 ohm.
otherwise we could replace all the power lines and batteries with “infinitely conductive” high temperature plasma and solve the worlds energy problems over-night.
We are trying to do something like that. It works better with low-temperature superconductors.

maelstrom the firestarter
December 24, 2010 12:42 pm

I expect it’s a kind of pause while stuff bubbles under the surface then erupts. Or: Little Ice Age. Take your pick. I choose an X-flare.

Holugu
December 24, 2010 2:22 pm

Pamela Gray, what your post demonstrates is a fair degree of a need for conformity and deference to authority. There is really nothing wrong with it, a majority of people is “built” or if you prefer, “wired”, that way. It is a social mechanism that has a social fitness value, if not a survival value in “interesting” times..
Once again, what science creates are models, approximations of reality, because the physical reality is not accessible to us directly. Unfortunately, this aspect of science is not stressed enough and hubris is the flip side then.
Leif,
It is a holiday time and my attention is thusly oriented where it should be during holidays. I’ll try to respond in the next few days with the CMEs details/sketch and also provide falsification data for the fusion/HR model–I think we may have about 3 cases that are the proverbial VY Canis Majoris holes in the standard edifice.
Just out of curiosity… if I have data that falsify the fusion/HR model, will you accept it? Or will you try to find proper epicycles so the model remains intact? Something tells me that you would go by the second route.

Holugu
December 24, 2010 2:48 pm

Jeff Mitchell says:
“I do have a question for the guys who advocate that the energy is supplied to the sun from external sources: if the energy is coming from an external source and not from within the sun, why are we not toasting at the temperature of the sun ourselves. Why does the energy go to the sun and ignore the planets? What is the source of the energy? Inquiring minds want to know.”
As well, will provide answer to your questions, though to the last one is in the mold of “we think that the source is…”.
Merry Christmas to everyone!

Verified by MonsterInsights