Solar Geomagnetic Ap Index Hits Zero

This is something you really don’t expect to see this far into solar cycle 24.

But there it is, the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite shows the sun as a cueball:

The Ap index being zero, indicates that the sun’s magnetic field is low, and its magneto is idling rather than revving up as it should be on the way to solar max. True, it’s just a couple of data points, but as NOAA’s SWPC predicts the solar cycle, we should be further along instead of having a wide  gap:

The Ap index generally follows along with the sunspot count, which is a proxy of solar activity.

And here’s the daily Ap geomagnetic data. The Ap is bumping along the bottom:

Graph by Jan Alvestad

 

The long term Ap has been on a downtrend, ever since there was a step change in October 2005:

The overall data looks pretty anemic:

This page is normally updated once a day by Jan Alvestad. All values are preliminary.

[Solar Terrestrial Activity Report]

h/t to Joe D’Aleo and thanks to Jan Alvestad for keeping this data and plotting it.

Solar and geomagnetic data (last month)

Date Measured

solar flux

Sunspot number Planetary A index K indices (3-hour intervals) Min-max solar wind speed (km/sec) Number of flares (events)
STAR NOAA STAR NOAA Daily low – high Planetary Boulder C M X
20101222 77.7 12 0 0.0 0 0-0 00000000 00001100 287-381
20101221 77.9 12 0 1.3 1 0-3 01001000 11101100 347-457
20101220 77.9 12 0 8.5 8 3-18 13222223 13222223 346-479
20101219 80.9 11 0 1.4 1 0-6 10000002 11000112 345-415
20101218 80.5 0 0 2.3 2 0-5 11001001 11101211 353-446
20101217 81.6 11 11 3.1 3 0-7 21001111 31001221 383-524
20101216 84.1 11 23 4.6 5 0-9 21210111 21220221 433-567
20101215 86.9 22 11 8.9 9 3-27 34111111 44222211 544-655 1
20101214 90.3 34 33 11.1 11 5-18 12233323 13233323 491-757 1
20101213 87.7 49 46 5.4 5 2-9 22200022 32211212 385-611
20101212 89.4 52 23 3.8 4 0-15 00001312 00001422 293-445
20101211 86.9 23 25 0.9 1 0-3 00000001 01001001 284-354
20101210 88.4 40 33 0.3 0 0-2 00000000 00000110 321-349
20101209 86.8 54 22 1.8 2 0-3 11000001 11200110 341-404
20101208 87.2 48 22 2.8 3 0-7 11001021 12111222 337-445
20101207 87.1 31 34 3.9 4 2-7 10102111 01112211 342-385
20101206 88.5 28 35 2.4 2 0-4 00011111 01121121 269-351
20101205 87.9 42 47 0.8 1 0-4 00000001 00011101 270-274
20101204 87.4 52 48 0.6 1 0-3 00100000 00101010 270-314
20101203 86.8 47 27 1.1 1 0-5 01000000 02000000 270-337
20101202 86.5 38 32 2.6 3 0-6 21001000 11000110 339-360
20101201 86.5 44 25 1.8 2 0-4 10000011 10100210 338-358 1
20101130 86.4 36 24 3.0 3 2-4 01011110 12021110 345-402
20101129 82.5 24 31 3.1 3 0-5 00111110 01221111 348-437
20101128 80.1 34 34 6.1 6 0-12 22101231 23212221 384-460
20101127 76.5 38 11 11.9 12 0-67 00001164 00001243 294-520
20101126 76.2 12 23 1.6 2 0-4 00001111 00001110 344-390
20101125 77.9 25 22 3.6 4 2-6 12111110 02112110 382-477
20101124 75.8 23 11 4.4 4 3-6 11111122 11221221 426-518
20101123 75.3 12 12 7.8 8 3-15 21311332 21312321 452-537

This page is normally updated once a day by Jan Alvestad. All values are preliminary.

[Solar Terrestrial Activity Report]

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Tim L
December 23, 2010 9:16 pm

Mac the Knife says:
December 23, 2010 at 1:37 pm
yep this is correct…………
when the nearest corner market shelves are bare, and the trucks can not get through , and refill the shelves………………..

December 23, 2010 9:17 pm

Holugu says:
December 23, 2010 at 8:09 pm
we really can’t see the “evolution” of stars.
To speak about ‘evolution of stars’ is a bit wrong, as the word /evolution/ invokes the wrong image of things. Stars don’t evolve in the biological sense of that word. They do like you and I, they ‘age’. If you look at a large number of people, you’ll see all ages represented: young, middle, and old. So you can directly SEE that aging takes place. If you come back and look at the same people some years later, they will have aged, and you can see that.
Same with the stars. There are about 100 so-called globular clusters in the Galaxy, each containing typically a million stars, that were born at the same time and in the same neighborhood [unless you’ll postulate that they all decided to get together for your enjoyment at this present time], so they have the same birthday and initial chemical composition. And in contrast to people, stars AGE at different rates. This does not mean that time is flowing at a different rate. If we look at a life-cycle: you are born, grown up, mature, and die, then you can define age relative to that timeline. Massive stars age [that is, eventually, die] a lot faster than small stars, so when we look at the million stars some will be large and other will be small, so some will be young and some will be old. If you make a 2D plot where each star is represented by a point placed according to its temperature [color] on one axis and luminosity on the other axis, you’ll find that the points do not scatter wildly about, but lie on definite ‘lines’ and ‘areas’ on the plot. This most famous astrophysical plot is called the Hertzsprung-Russell digram [ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globular_cluster ] and shows you the age of each star. Not in time [they were all born at the same time], but in how far along their life they are. Different clusters are born at different times, so give us different snapshots of the life cycles of stars. What we see in this way matches very closely what the misnamed ‘theory of stellar evolution’ predicts [or explains is a better word], so we have high confidence in its veracity.
Holugu says:
December 23, 2010 at 8:22 pm
One thing I’ve forgotten to add. Magnetic lines reconnection
Only astronomers with a cursory exposure to theory of electricity can come up with that concept. Ask any lowly electrical engineer and he would laugh what a good joke that is.

That is because your lowly electrical engineer does not deal with this in the domain of his expertise and knowledge. If he laughs, it is because he doesn’t know. Like the discussion between two little boys about where babies come from. One says they come with the stork and the other is trying to explain about s e x, and s p e r m, and e g g s. The first boy laughs at that good joke.
Reconnection is observed in space and in the laboratory, e.g. http://mrx.pppl.gov/

rbateman
December 23, 2010 9:21 pm

Leif Svalgaard says:
December 23, 2010 at 8:05 pm
Or we could have a Sporer Minimum, or a totally new breed of minimum.
It acts just like our weather, with no two winters or summers alike.
Right now, it’s got wavy coronal bands where AR’s should be, and weak spots pop in and out like bubbles in a pan about to boil.
There is also a part of the north and south hemisphere AR bands that meet in a V.
As for our climate, it’s not looking so hot (pun intended).
I say the Solar Cycle is about to crash, and we will once again learn why past civilizations feared/revered/stood in awe of the Sun.

D Janeway
December 23, 2010 9:25 pm

From Mars says,
Well, the Solar Minimum began in 2008. That not prevented 2010 being so far the hottest year on record.
The Earth has been warming since the 1970s, while at the same time solar activity was in the decline, after peaking in the 1950s.
A new Dalton Minimum will not cause significant global cooling, the impact of the enhanced Greenhouse effect is overwelmingly bigger. The data show that clearly.
2010 is not the “hottest year on record.”
Earth has been cooling since 1998.
The greenhouse effect is not “overwhelmingly” bigger.
The data does not show that clearly.
You really are from Mars!

Engchamp
December 23, 2010 9:32 pm

Thank you John Day, for your explanation that temperature is not a measurement of energy – you have managed to do so more succinctly than I.
And thanks to Mac the Knife, for reminding us that we who live in temperate climes may experience some real hardship if, as is likely in the UK, we cannot import electrical power from France, because they need all their power for themselves; and worse, if we wake one morning to find no water. No water, plenty snow to melt, but no power to melt it. And that’s just the start…
Enough. ‘Tis the festive season, and so may I wish you all at WUWT, and our esteemed posters and commenters, a very Happy Christmas.

James F. Evans
December 23, 2010 9:45 pm

MDR:
No, I don’t know what would happen (if the corona disapeared).
I would be speculating, but since you invite speculation, the Sun might be like an ember, instead of a bright “campfire” in the sky, to employ an older analogy… or it could be something entirely different… as stated, “I don’t know.”
But put it this way, if one part of a wholistic system is missing, the effect on the rest of the system could have significant effects… or possibly even none at all (although, a highly improbable event).
We don’t know.
Science derives understanding from observation & measurement… both directly, and indirectly from inferences, or from a chain of circumstancial evidence.
Something that has never happened in Man’s experience is not subject to direct observation & measurement… and, in this case (the hypothetical of the corona being “gone”), inferences or indirect observations & measurements likely would be of little help.

MDR
December 23, 2010 9:51 pm


Holugu says:
December 23, 2010 at 8:09 pm
we really can’t see the “evolution” of stars.

Leif’s written explanation is good, but from the “picture is worth a thousand words” department, try this video too.

Holugu
December 23, 2010 10:20 pm

Reconnection is observed in space and in the laboratory
Magnetic field is a continuum. There are no “lines”. Hence the whole Magnetic Reconnection Experiment is a waste of money if they are after lines that are only a conceptual aid to visualize. They do not exist, They may encounter double layers of excited plasma, but they can’t get lines that are just a figment of human imagination to make a model of magnetic field more accessible to human grasp. Same with the longitudinal/latitudinal grid–it does not exist, but it is an abstract concept that aids us to get our bearings. Every electrical engineer knows that the lines of magnetic field are just an aid and that they do not represent any physical phenomenon. But hey, it is nice to get some grants pouring in, hook, line and sinker, innit?
But if you think the lines do exist, please present the part of the Maxwell equations that desribes and proves them. As far as I studied them, they describe the magnetic field as a continuum, there is not a hint of any lines no matter how you slice them, or even normalize.
Would like to address your segment about stars, but time is not there, so some other day.

Holugu
December 23, 2010 10:41 pm

MDR, cool clip. Epicycles worked very well too, I hope you know that.

MDR
December 23, 2010 10:42 pm


James F. Evans says:
December 23, 2010 at 9:45 pm
Science derives understanding from observation & measurement… both directly, and indirectly from inferences, or from a chain of circumstancial evidence.
Something that has never happened in Man’s experience is not subject to direct observation & measurement… and, in this case (the hypothetical of the corona being “gone”), inferences or indirect observations & measurements likely would be of little help.

I believe there are benefits to thought experiments, though. I find value in the process of (a) assessing what is thought to be true about a particular topic, and then (b) applying this knowledge to various hypothetical situations, with the aim of, say, building intuition, disproving the conventional wisdom, or simply exploring the concept in question.
Thought experiments can lead to real experiments that do test aspects of what is thought to be known, and such testing of hypotheses is of course an important part of the scientific method (and is thus useful). And in fact, since the future is unknown, one never knows when a hypothetical situation may occur in reality, and indeed evaluating any predictions made from what was thought to be only a hypothetical situation is usually a stringent test of how good a how good the hypothesis is to begin with.
As a famous example of someone who used thought experiments to great effect, Einstein used thought experiments to refine concepts of special and general relativity, and some of these thought experiments led to real advances in understanding (e.g., the precession of the perihelion of Mercury).

December 23, 2010 10:54 pm

Zeke the Sneak says:
December 23, 2010 at 8:42 pm
Dr S, the abrupt temp rise above the sun’s photosphere happens evenly around the sun, not in a chaotic and lumpy way, which would be expected if it is the result of so many explosions and supposed reconnections.
Where do you get that idea from? Just by inspection of the Sun’s limb you can see how spiky, uneven, turbulent it is: http://astro1.panet.utoledo.edu/~lsa/_a1010/sun_tz.gif
Holugu says:
December 23, 2010 at 10:20 pm
As far as I studied them, they describe the magnetic field as a continuum, there is not a hint of any lines no matter how you slice them, or even normalize.
Field lines can acquire identify [and fully understood from Maxwell’s equations couple with Newton’s law] by being loaded with mass. A charged particle will spiral along a field line and thus given identity to the line, namely as the line around which a given particle spirals. In the Earth’s Van Allen Belts particles can be trapped for years spiraling around a field lines almost from pole to pole [and then bouncing back for the return journey to the other pole]. In the mean time the Earth goes around the Sun, but the spiraling particle still follows the field line tied to the Earth.
It is in this sense that we talk about field lines existing. This is a very useful concept, when used correctly.
Another example: the solar wind expands radially away from the sun. As the sun rotates the point from where a given parcel of wind came from will move to the west and after several days will be at the limb at the sun and thereafter behind the Sun. The magnetic field through that parcel remains tied to the parcel and by the time the parcels reaches the Earth, the field line will follow an Archimedian spiral. Energetic electrons spiraling along that field line will follow this curved path, while the ordinary solar wind still expands radially.
Field lines as real constructs are useful in certain situations, and that the concept lives. Here are some beautiful field lies: http://www.cosmiclight.com/imagegalleries/images/space/sun-trace.jpg
Look very real to me.

December 23, 2010 11:02 pm

Leif Svalgaard says:
December 23, 2010 at 10:54 pm
Here are some beautiful field lines: http://www.cosmiclight.com/imagegalleries/images/space/sun-trace.jpg
Look very real to me.

December 23, 2010 11:20 pm

James F. Evans says:
December 23, 2010 at 9:45 pm
Something that has never happened in Man’s experience is not subject to direct observation & measurement… and, in this case (the hypothetical of the corona being “gone”), inferences or indirect observations & measurements likely would be of little help.
If a large planet would pass between the Sun and rather near the Earth I would predict [and have every right to expect] that the Sun would be eclipsed by that planet, even though this has never happened in Man’s experience.
About the corona, it actually does “go away” from time to time [at least in places]. For example there is no corona above the poles at this time. Such places where the corona is gone are called coronal holes; looks like this: http://www.suntrek.org/images/coronal_hole.jpg

Solon
December 23, 2010 11:46 pm

While I might not agree with the ‘standard’ Electric Sun model, I am inclined to agree that the gravity, hydrogen, fusion model is even further from correct. I do believe, as a
still very small but growing nucleus of investigators are reasoning, that the Sun converts energy to mass, and not mass to energy. Again, there is disagreement as to the exact process even amongst that group. I’ll go out on a limb and suggest that an even more outlandish model should be considered, that of resonance, spherical standing waves (wavefront collisions for coronal heating), scalar electromagnetics, and all powered by a central vacuum spark. The Birkeland currents do not provide the energy for the Sun, but provide the base current required to trigger release of the ZPF energies which provide the real ‘umph’. Phase conjugation also comes into the picture, but unless you firstly admit to the energy to mass function, the Sun as Creator, then the information as energy part of the proposal will make even less sense.

MDR
December 23, 2010 11:48 pm


Holugu says:
December 23, 2010 at 10:41 pm
MDR, cool clip. Epicycles worked very well too, I hope you know that.


Thanks.
It seems that you are suggesting that present knowledge regarding stellar aging is going the way of geocentrism. Can you offer any other theories that are on equal footing as the current stellar-aging conventional wisdom? I am open to considering any idea that explains the appearance and properties of most stars in the sky (such as the final brightness-color diagram shown in the video) to the same degree as the conventional wisdom does.
BTW, yes, I’m aware of epicycles, you will be glad to know. Aside form their being a splendid example of something that worked (until they didn’t), they also happen to be the current poster children for a “fallacy of irrelevance” argument in scientific discourse. (I hope you know that.)

stephen parker
December 24, 2010 12:13 am

rbateman 9.21
robert, you’ve whetted my appetite . More please

December 24, 2010 12:39 am

Solon says:
December 23, 2010 at 11:46 pm
I am inclined to agree that the gravity, hydrogen, fusion model is even further from correct.
Solon, it saddens my heart to see the low level of scientific literacy that you and so many others [of many stripes] have sunk to. Science is important to our society, civilization, and indeed humanity, and we cannot really afford to have an illiterate citizenry in that respect. Alas, it seems we have. The ‘solar articles’ on WUWT always end up with the usual suspects [+various hangers on] pushing pseudo-science and nonsense, instead of addressing the real science issues of the topics.

pkatt
December 24, 2010 12:40 am

As Dr. Svarlgaard puts it. “No matter what the Sun does, it has done it before :-)”
That statement is an example of hubris. First the age of man is a tiny tick in the history of the sun. It has done things man has never seen before and since as it grows older it is supposed to progress into a red giant, you better believe there things its going to do that you have never seen before. It bothers me you consider the sun as consistent and totally predictable.

December 24, 2010 1:53 am

pkatt says:
December 24, 2010 at 12:40 am
It bothers me you consider the sun as consistent and totally predictable.
The sun is consistent with physical laws, and is predictable in the large [you were predicting it would become a red giant, for example], but certainly not in the small. And it should have been clear to you that the issues were much narrower than the life-history of the Sun. As I watch the Sun today, I see nothing that is out of the ordinary over the past several thousand years [as far as our data goes]. In our limited lifespans things may look unique, but with a longer view, it seems to me to be just business as usual. Perhaps there is a new element, namely that we have never been able to observe as well as now, and that could lead to a better understanding, and even stronger predictive powers at some time in the future.

Jimbo
December 24, 2010 2:04 am

johanna says:
December 23, 2010 at 8:18 pm
……………….
Well said, Mac. From a human perspective, it would be better if the AGW crowd was right. There are good reasons why the tropics are populated, and the poles are not.

One part of me wants to see prolonged cold / mini ice age just to extinguish the AGW scare cold dead. Another part of me realises the havoc this sow in agriculture and lives in the northern hemisphere. By the way I live in the tropics and am so pleased now I moved out of London.
Is a mini ice age around the corner? [ http://sc25.com/index.php?id=267 ]

Roger Longstaff
December 24, 2010 2:32 am

There can be no argument about the theory of thermonuclear fusion – we tested this to destruction with the hydrogen bomb!

phlogiston
December 24, 2010 2:42 am

Stephen Wilde says:
December 23, 2010 at 3:03 pm
phlogiston said:
“we are just starting a new La Nina dominant phase. Perhaps a quiet sun will add something to this.”
Yes, that’s all I meant in my earlier post.
There are internal ocean variations that are largely independent of solar input and they obscure the solar effects for long periods of time but the recent step change in solar behaviour is so clear that I hope to see a short period where the solar effect becomes apparent above the background ‘noise’.
A test would be to observe how the current negative PDO phase compares to the earlier one which took place when the sun was much more lively. It will take some years to resolve though.
In the shorter term I think observation of AO behaviour in relation to solar activity is a more fruitful area.

The current coincidence of negative PDO and an apparent solar minimum will definitely be scientifically informative. I agree strongly with your point that the oceans can have intrinsic cycles, not every variation has to be traceable to some astrophysical forcing. However, it may be a 2-way process. Solar and other astrophysical cyclical or fluctuating inputs might act as a periodic forcing of the ocean system. If the ocean system acts as a nonlinear oscillator, then the external forcing could entrain the ocean’s cycles; note however that the pattern and frequency of such forced oceanic nonlinear oscillations would be quite different from the frequencies of the external forcing agents.
I think Willie Soon has done some work on solar cyclical inputs at the arctic showing up some years later in the tropical ocean.

Holugu
December 24, 2010 4:28 am

Leif, the image you posted has no “lines”. What it shows is what plasma physics terms double layers.
Imagine it as a translucent sleeves–don’t be fooled by the scale that to a large degree compresses the phenomenon into what you perceive as quasi-lines (your approach reminds me of a story of 6 blind men trying to describe an elephant based on a part each of them was able to get by a tactile exploration–the trunk, the tail and the legs… you may guess what the “consensus” was). These “lines” are nearly as wide as earth and often even wider. The discharge is a collection of sheets that form sleeves, often within themselves onion style (example: imagine 3 sleeves of very translucent material nested within each other. When looking at this arrangement, due to low density you can perhaps barely distinguish the “face” of the main sleeve, it may be rather a hint of it than something out there, but since the perspective would compress the “sides” so that there is a perception of density, you would see the outlines of the sleeves, as 6 lines. But there are no lines, are they? It is just your perception (or the perception provided by extension of your senses by tools/gadgets) that gives you an impression of “lines”. Nature does not have wires to transport a charge, it does it by forming it’s own “wires” in the form of double layers and as someone mentioned Birkeland currents–they are the same phenomenon, except in more compressed arrangement.
I agree with your statement that “Science is important to our society, civilization, and indeed humanity”. However, you need to bear in mind that what science is — a suite of tentative models of reality. I think this aspect of science, it’s tentative nature, is not hammered enough into heads of students and then they get the impression that the current set is “all there is and don’t tell me otherwise”. Never was and never will be–due to our inability and a lack of capacity to perceive most of the reality in a direct fashion. That is the true power of science–the concept that our models are tentative representations of reality, otherwise you end up with a temporary dogma not that far removed from religion. I suppose we don’t have to go too far to see examples of it right on this site–specifically the phenomenon of the AGW religious movement.

rbateman
December 24, 2010 4:37 am

stephen parker says:
December 24, 2010 at 12:13 am
rbateman 9.21
robert, you’ve whetted my appetite . More please

Which part? The erratic and sporadic behavior of the sun, or puzzling indications that the sun is being acted upon externally?
If you took your ipod or cell phone & dropped it into water, then halfway dried it, it would act erraticly, just like our star is now doing. I wouldn’t call the Sun a variable star, I would call it a chaotic variable. It’s a sputtering mess. Like the doused electronic device, it gives every indication of being about to blue screen. Reboot.

Holugu
December 24, 2010 4:47 am

I do have some beef with plasma cosmologists–they sometimes tend to get locked into their model and don’t consider other possibilities. But not too often and in most cases, their explanations are more internally consistent that those of “standard” cosmology, the later having holes so large that you could drive VY Canis Majoris through it. Just for the fun, google “astronomers puzzled” or “cosmologists puzzled”. Well, no matter, “epicycles” come always to the rescue.