Solar Geomagnetic Ap Index Hits Zero

This is something you really don’t expect to see this far into solar cycle 24.

But there it is, the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite shows the sun as a cueball:

The Ap index being zero, indicates that the sun’s magnetic field is low, and its magneto is idling rather than revving up as it should be on the way to solar max. True, it’s just a couple of data points, but as NOAA’s SWPC predicts the solar cycle, we should be further along instead of having a wide  gap:

The Ap index generally follows along with the sunspot count, which is a proxy of solar activity.

And here’s the daily Ap geomagnetic data. The Ap is bumping along the bottom:

Graph by Jan Alvestad

 

The long term Ap has been on a downtrend, ever since there was a step change in October 2005:

The overall data looks pretty anemic:

This page is normally updated once a day by Jan Alvestad. All values are preliminary.

[Solar Terrestrial Activity Report]

h/t to Joe D’Aleo and thanks to Jan Alvestad for keeping this data and plotting it.

Solar and geomagnetic data (last month)

Date Measured

solar flux

Sunspot number Planetary A index K indices (3-hour intervals) Min-max solar wind speed (km/sec) Number of flares (events)
STAR NOAA STAR NOAA Daily low – high Planetary Boulder C M X
20101222 77.7 12 0 0.0 0 0-0 00000000 00001100 287-381
20101221 77.9 12 0 1.3 1 0-3 01001000 11101100 347-457
20101220 77.9 12 0 8.5 8 3-18 13222223 13222223 346-479
20101219 80.9 11 0 1.4 1 0-6 10000002 11000112 345-415
20101218 80.5 0 0 2.3 2 0-5 11001001 11101211 353-446
20101217 81.6 11 11 3.1 3 0-7 21001111 31001221 383-524
20101216 84.1 11 23 4.6 5 0-9 21210111 21220221 433-567
20101215 86.9 22 11 8.9 9 3-27 34111111 44222211 544-655 1
20101214 90.3 34 33 11.1 11 5-18 12233323 13233323 491-757 1
20101213 87.7 49 46 5.4 5 2-9 22200022 32211212 385-611
20101212 89.4 52 23 3.8 4 0-15 00001312 00001422 293-445
20101211 86.9 23 25 0.9 1 0-3 00000001 01001001 284-354
20101210 88.4 40 33 0.3 0 0-2 00000000 00000110 321-349
20101209 86.8 54 22 1.8 2 0-3 11000001 11200110 341-404
20101208 87.2 48 22 2.8 3 0-7 11001021 12111222 337-445
20101207 87.1 31 34 3.9 4 2-7 10102111 01112211 342-385
20101206 88.5 28 35 2.4 2 0-4 00011111 01121121 269-351
20101205 87.9 42 47 0.8 1 0-4 00000001 00011101 270-274
20101204 87.4 52 48 0.6 1 0-3 00100000 00101010 270-314
20101203 86.8 47 27 1.1 1 0-5 01000000 02000000 270-337
20101202 86.5 38 32 2.6 3 0-6 21001000 11000110 339-360
20101201 86.5 44 25 1.8 2 0-4 10000011 10100210 338-358 1
20101130 86.4 36 24 3.0 3 2-4 01011110 12021110 345-402
20101129 82.5 24 31 3.1 3 0-5 00111110 01221111 348-437
20101128 80.1 34 34 6.1 6 0-12 22101231 23212221 384-460
20101127 76.5 38 11 11.9 12 0-67 00001164 00001243 294-520
20101126 76.2 12 23 1.6 2 0-4 00001111 00001110 344-390
20101125 77.9 25 22 3.6 4 2-6 12111110 02112110 382-477
20101124 75.8 23 11 4.4 4 3-6 11111122 11221221 426-518
20101123 75.3 12 12 7.8 8 3-15 21311332 21312321 452-537

This page is normally updated once a day by Jan Alvestad. All values are preliminary.

[Solar Terrestrial Activity Report]

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Mac the Knife
December 23, 2010 1:37 pm

Hmmmmmm…. curiouser and curiouser. Thanks for the regular posts on old Sol Anthony, Joe, Jan, and Lief! Sincerely – Thank You and Merry Christmas to all of the good folks that make WattsUpWithThat such an enjoyable and unique success!
Richard says:
December 23, 2010 at 10:43 am
Q: “Whose afraid of the big bad snow and ice?”
A: Anyone who has lived and worked outdoors through severe northern winters, that’s who!!!
When the frost in the ground goes deeper than the water supply lines to your house and livestock barns (+4 feet!), life becomes very hard and fear is your neighbor. When you must work bare handed to fix an essential something and you risk frostbite, fear looks over your shoulder. When you must have electric heaters for your car battery and engine block to get it to start on a -30F night, fear of a power failure or finding an available electrical socket is a reality. When the power grid goes down and the electric circulating pumps or blowers on your furnace won’t run, I’m afraid you better have a back up plan!
When the snow piled high on your barn, garage, and house roofs approaches their structural load limits, you had damn well better be afraid… and get your ‘afraid of heights’ butt up there and clear it off! When you must use your farm tractor to punch a path through the drifting to the point of impassable roads and provide escort so an ambulance team can care for a neighbor heart attack victim, fear for their survival is at the fore. For anyone stranded in ‘white out’ blizzard conditions, life approaches the terminal point and fear stares you in the face.
I grew up in these conditions and these are my experiences. I have survived in brutal winter conditions that can kill less prepared and less fearful individuals. From unforgiving experiences, I know there is far more to fear from “big bad snow and ice”, be it ‘weather’ or ‘climate change’ induced, than there will ever be from 3C of ‘global warming’.
In my experience, it is usually those scoffing and ‘unafraid’ folks like Richard that get stranded in the worst conditions. They either die or get rescued by others who put themselves at risk to save their sorry butts.

John Day
December 23, 2010 1:44 pm

@pochas
> according to the “Thunderbolts” website, the dark sunspots are a window
> into the interior of the sun, proving that the inside is cooler than the outside!
Your “window” metaphor is completely wrong. “Window shade” would be more consistent with the underlying solar physics: sunspots are highly magnetic regions on the photosphere, in excess of 1500 Gauss, where the magnetism actually blocks the upwelling radiation and prevents its escape. Hence it’s cooler above the spots, which makes them look dark. The surrounding, brighter photosphere is actually more transparent to this upwelling radiation.

December 23, 2010 1:45 pm

Dave Springer says:
December 23, 2010 at 11:56 am
The corona, because it’s so vacuous, throws off almost no radiation and neither does it absorb a significant amount .
There is another more important reason. To radiate an electron must transition from one bound quantum state to another one. 99% of the corona is fully ionized, meaning that the electrons are free, not bound, and therefore cannot radiate.
That’s why it isn’t visible except during a full eclipse.
what you see during a total eclipse is actually not radiation from the million degree corona. 99% of the light comes from the photosphere [which is why the corona is white] and is scattered off electrons and dust particles surrounding the Sun.

December 23, 2010 1:53 pm

Mac the Knife says:
December 23, 2010 at 1:37 pm
blizzard conditions, life approaches the terminal point and fear stares you in the face.
I grew up in these conditions and these are my experiences.

Thank you Mac for that moving, frightening reminder that cold is bad.

The Hobbs End Martian
December 23, 2010 2:03 pm

ARSE or Anthropogenic Remedial Solar Effect.
As all the ice caps have now gone and melted the cold has escaped into space, cooling the Sun. In order to maintain thermal equilibrium the CO2 molecules multiply ( proton genesis ) and so the Earth heats up, causing it to snow everywhere. The snow melts and the vicious cycle continues.
You can purchase your compulsory Solar Credits at taxnfleece.com

December 23, 2010 2:13 pm

“Dave Springer says:
December 23, 2010 at 11:18 am
@anthony
Do you think we’re in for an increase in La Ninas due to the solar slumber? ”
If my climate model is correct then the quiet sun in reducing energy input to the oceans by increasing cloudiness and albedo should over time increase the strength and frequency of La Nina events as against El Nino events.
At the same time less energy will be entering the thermohaline circulation to affect the climate when it resurfaces again in about 1000 years.

wayne
December 23, 2010 2:29 pm

phlogiston, thanks for the great sarcastic reply to Reeves and Thornhill so I don’t have to, (unless it keeps on coming, that is!)

Les Francis
December 23, 2010 2:30 pm

Solar cycles 10 – 15 appear to be pretty quiet for sunspot numbers especially the years from 1910 – 1914.
We will just have to wait before any calls for global cooling.
As Dr. Svarlgaard puts it. “No matter what the Sun does, it has done it before :-)”

phlogiston
December 23, 2010 2:41 pm

wayne says:
December 23, 2010 at 2:29 pm
One does what one can for king and country.
Dave Springer says:
December 23, 2010 at 11:18 am
@anthony
Do you think we’re in for an increase in La Ninas due to the solar slumber?
They cause droughts here in Texas. Bad ones. This one is no exception. California gets the floods instead. I’d rather have floods than droughts.
According to Bob Tisdale’s excellent recent ENSO analysis here, there are periodic flips between el Nino dominated and La Nina dominated periods, about 30-35 years long each, going back more than a century and without any obvious help from solar activity. While Bob meticulously avoids getting drawn into predictions, the clear implication is that we are just starting a new La Nina dominant phase. Perhaps a quiet sun will add something to this.

Robinson
December 23, 2010 2:44 pm

Leif Svalgaard:> meaning that the electrons are free, not bound, and therefore cannot radiate.

Correct me if I’m wrong Leif (I almost certainly am!), but don’t electrons moving in a magnetic field radiate anyway? Or is that just if they’re moving at relativistic speed?

John-X
December 23, 2010 2:45 pm

Rhyl Dearden says:
December 23, 2010 at 1:18 pm
“I worry about the effects of cold because it impedes the growth of crops, and starvation can happen if growing period is too short. Warming extends range of crop land, cooling contracts it and while there was starvation during the LIA think what it will be like this time – how much food reserves are there in the world? Already large numbers of people are on inadequate diets.”
Quite right.
I think we can withstand any number of harsh winters – as long as each one is followed by an adequate growing season.
A single, global “year without a summer” – such as happened in 1816 – would be catastrophic almost beyond imagination.

James F. Evans
December 23, 2010 2:48 pm

I don’t want to go… where the Sun hasn’t gone before.
So, I sure hope Dr. Svalgaard is right and this pattern has been observed & measured before.
Time will tell.
But, God forbid, if the Sun goes where it hasn’t gone before, in Man’s experience, and, again, time will tell…but don’t we have to at least consider… we don’t understand the Sun as well, as we thought we knew?

Cirrius Man
December 23, 2010 2:49 pm

This can all be explained by the recently discovered “Gore Effect”

Robinson
December 23, 2010 2:51 pm

would be catastrophic almost beyond imagination.

Only in terms of methane release into the atmosphere: we’d all be eating year old tinned beans.

December 23, 2010 2:57 pm

And the predictions are for a Dalton minimum? hmmm.
I wonder what triggers a glaciation ice age?
So the AGW lies broke the sun 🙂

December 23, 2010 3:03 pm

phlogiston said:
“we are just starting a new La Nina dominant phase. Perhaps a quiet sun will add something to this.”
Yes, that’s all I meant in my earlier post.
There are internal ocean variations that are largely independent of solar input and they obscure the solar effects for long periods of time but the recent step change in solar behaviour is so clear that I hope to see a short period where the solar effect becomes apparent above the background ‘noise’.
A test would be to observe how the current negative PDO phase compares to the earlier one which took place when the sun was much more lively. It will take some years to resolve though.
In the shorter term I think observation of AO behaviour in relation to solar activity is a more fruitful area.

December 23, 2010 3:14 pm

Robinson says:
December 23, 2010 at 2:44 pm
Correct me if I’m wrong Leif (I almost certainly am!), but don’t electrons moving in a magnetic field radiate anyway? Or is that just if they’re moving at relativistic speed?
You are not wrong, but not quite right either. Whenever a charged particle changes direction [because of a magnetic field or deflection by another charge] you get radiation [fancy word: “Bremsstrahlung”]. This is not the visible light we see in the corona. On the other hand, the lower corona and upper chromosphere do radiate by this mechanism. We observe that as the F10.7 microwave flux, but it is MANY orders of magnitude weaker than anything we can SEE [except with very sensitive radio telescopes], and is not thermal heat radiation.

CPT. Charles
December 23, 2010 3:24 pm

Good thing I like cold weather…
All though that might get old in my few remaining decades.

Zeke the Sneak
December 23, 2010 3:33 pm

Dave Springer says:
December 23, 2010 at 11:56 am
re; sun corona temperature and energy source
It’s 2-3 million Kelvin but that’s pretty meaningless because the corona is a near perfect vacuum. The photosphere is what we see and that’s 5000K. The core, which is where the energy is generated by gravitational compression of hydrogen to fusion temperature and pressure, is 14.5 million K and is by far the hottest densest portion of the sun.

I see. A mental temperature gradient graph is easy for anyone to picture. And is it normal for such incredibly steep temperature troughs to exist as a body radiates heat? Can you give any examples in nature of an incredibly cool surface sandwiched between such enormous temperatures? What is keeping the heat from filling in that trough?
Your comment is very dismissive of this tenuous 3 million degree corona; I think you would miss it a little here on earth if it were gone.

Pops
December 23, 2010 3:39 pm

Look out! There’s a new sun-speck. It might just be a spot on the lens but I’m sure it will count – anything to break the current blank spell that now stands at five days.

u.k.(us)
December 23, 2010 4:18 pm

1) The Earth has seen “extreme” temperature swings.
2) The Earth has only one “energy” source. (besides its core).
To deny the Sun as the driver, even though we orbit in its “gravity hole”, seems to defy logic.
Ya gotta love it !!!

James F. Evans
December 23, 2010 4:19 pm

Zeke the Sneak asks: “What is keeping the heat from filling in that trough?”
Why, electromagnetism, of course!

John Day
December 23, 2010 4:57 pm

@Zeke

I see. A mental temperature gradient graph is easy for anyone to picture. And is it normal for such incredibly steep temperature troughs to exist as a body radiates heat? Can you give any examples in nature of an incredibly cool surface sandwiched between such enormous temperatures? What is keeping the heat from filling in that trough?
Your comment is very dismissive of this tenuous 3 million degree corona; I think you would miss it a little here on earth if it were gone.

Zeke, you’re missing the point. “Temperature is not energy”. In this case it’s the “kinetic temperature” of the fast-moving molecules in the corona:

1/2mv² = 3/2kT

where v is the average speed. Yes, theoretically, even a single molecule could have a million-degree temperature if it moved fast enough. But temperature only makes sense in a useful way in very large distributions of mass.
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/kinetic/kintem.html
The total mass of the corona is vanishingly small: 3×10¹⁴kg. In comparison, only 1/10 of the mass of Mount Everest: 3×10¹⁵kg! And only 1/10000th the mass of Earth’s atmosphere: 5×10¹⁸kg
So the total energy here: 1/2mv², is negligible on a solar scale. Therefore, we are entitled to dismiss its radiative effects on the solar system.

Jay Curtis
December 23, 2010 5:14 pm

The sun has been as smooth as a baby’s butt for more than a few days now. What are the odds it will climb back out of the current funk? Maunder Minimum on the way?
Anyone?

MDR
December 23, 2010 5:15 pm

Zeke the Sneak says:
December 23, 2010 at 3:33 pm
I see. A mental temperature gradient graph is easy for anyone to picture. And is it normal for such incredibly steep temperature troughs to exist as a body radiates heat? Can you give any examples in nature of an incredibly cool surface sandwiched between such enormous temperatures? What is keeping the heat from filling in that trough?
Your comment is very dismissive of this tenuous 3 million degree corona; I think you would miss it a little here on earth if it were gone.


Most radiation of solar origin affecting earth emanates from the photosphere, and not the corona. If there corona were gone, the change in the radiative energy flux incident on earth would be changed by only a small, fractional amount.
Some confusion arises because, even though the corona is warmer than the photosphere, the corona is also very much less dense. If the gas in each layer were the same density, heat would easily conduct from the hotter region to the cooler one (as most people would expect, i.e. heat would flow down the temperature gradient). But the photosphere and corona are not the same density – in fact the photosphere is something like 10^12 times more dense than the corona – and this makes it difficult for the tenuous corona to affect the temperature of the photosphere in any meaningful way.