Breaking news! December can still be cold and snowy over parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Don’t look to the American media for much information about European weather; it’s about as foreign as driving on the wrong side of the road. But, in Britain, Italy, and the rest of Europe, the past several weeks have seen “the Arctic refrigerator door” swing wide-open. Here are some example headlines:
Arctic freeze to last another month as AA warns of ‘worst driving conditions imaginable’ for Christmas getaways: Mail Online: “With temperatures expected to fall to -15c (5f), the Met Office said this is ‘almost certain’ to become the coldest December since records began in 1910.”
Europe travel mayhem as arctic freeze strikes again: AFP: “In Italy, rare snowfall disrupted the tourist destinations of Pisa and Florence, forced both airports to close and severely disrupted traffic and the region’s rail network.”
Thankfully, Dr. James Hansen has this figured out: Europe is one-half Rossby wavelength downstream from a partially frozen Hudson Bay, which causes Europe to become colder, or something: from NASA’s government funded blog:
Back to the cold air in Europe: is it possible that reduced Arctic sea ice is affecting weather patterns? Because Hudson Bay (and Baffin Bay, west of Greenland) are at significantly lower latitudes than most of the Arctic Ocean, global warming may cause them to remain ice free into early winter after the Arctic Ocean has become frozen insulating the atmosphere from the ocean. The fixed location of the Hudson-Baffin heat source could plausibly affect weather patterns, in a deterministic way — Europe being half a Rossby wavelength downstream, thus producing a cold European anomaly in the trans-Atlantic seesaw. Several ideas about possible effects of the loss of Arctic sea ice on weather patterns are discussed in papers referenced by Overland, Wang and Walsh.
However, we note in our Reviews of Geophysics paper that the few years just prior to 2009-2010, with low Arctic sea ice, did not produce cold winters in Europe. The cold winter of 2009-2010 was associated with the most extreme Arctic Oscillation in the period of record. Figure 3, from our paper, shows that 7 of the last 10 European winters were warmer than the 1951-1980 average winter, and 10 of the past 10 summers were warmer than climatology. The average warming of European winters is at least as large as the average warming of summers, but it is less noticeable because of the much greater variability in winter.
This is the trap that statistical/data manipulators like Hansen have fallen into: in the past, they would freely say: “of course you cannot attribute one weather event to global warming, but the likelihood of that event has become higher because it’s the extremes that are going to increase the most”, or something like that. Now, there is no pretense to equivocate about what the atmosphere is doing: weather has become climate, and necessarily so for the continued narrative of global warming alarmism. The trap is that they do not understand the underlying meteorology or climatology from basic dynamics — instead giving hand-wavy explanations with some citations thrown in from their colleagues.
To adequately attribute an ongoing weather/short-term climate event to AGW, considerable data analysis and time must be invested into researching many different avenues. It is a disservice to those interested in climate variability for senior scientists to supply hand-wavy, reflexive out-of-their-behinds explanations to the media to further their obvious political agenda. This actually goes for both sides of the climate aisle.
In the meantime, Europe continues to enjoy the effects of global warming or the Arctic Oscillation or the North Atlantic Oscillation, or something. It’s hubris and arrogance to think you have the Winter of 2010-2011 all summed up before it even starts.
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One little point… the M22 motorway, mentioned in the photo caption, doesn’t pass near Ballymena, but the M2 does. The M22 goes from Antrim to Randalstown (so it does).
[So it’s not a great big road in Ballymena, haigh! ~jove, mod]
http://www.cbrd.co.uk/motorway/m2-ni
http://www.cbrd.co.uk/motorway/m22-ni
(There were 4 inches of snow in North Manchester last night, which fell on frozen ground, and it’s just started snowing again. Both the north-south motorways on the western side of the UK are currently blocked by jackknifed lorries.)
I had to have read up on Rossby waves a bit to get anything
from Dr. James Hansen’s statement quoted above. One rather
simple description of Rossby waves is at:
http://science.jrank.org/pages/64984/Rossby-wave-(long-wave).html
It’s my hope, Ryan Maue, and writers of similar overviews as this
will realize Jim Hansen hasn’t“fallen into a trap”.
The Rossby Wave blurb is yet another part of the big con Hansen
and “the team” have been running for years based on speculative
computer and lab modeling (Rossby waves applied to a very cold
Europe, in this instance) and what the Nasa funded site called
“global warming”.
Sadly for the “Team” explaining weather phenomena away
doesn’t make the actual weather behave they way “They”
say it should be…
trap that statistical/data manipulators like Hansen have fallen into:
jheath says:
December 17, 2010 at 6:12 pm
“Down with feed-in tariffs.”
—————————
I could not agree more. What economic sense is there in paying people 40 odd pence per kw/h when the retail price is 11p per kw/h? That’s right, there is none. And subsidising wind power developments because they are not economically viable without subsidies? All in the name of what? Saving the planet, creating a green, low-carbon economy? Give me a break! It’s ordinary tax-payers’ money being p*ssed up against the wall while people are losing their jobs, essential services are being cut and they can’t keep the roads open!
This insanity MUST stop. Huhne sits at the top of the hill of stupidity, but almost all of the mainstream politicians would do the same.
They need to be sent a very strong message urging them to desist from this madness. Of course some of it is mandated due to our EU membership, but there is an answer to that as well….
I’m sorry, but all of this – especially the EU lightbulb fascism, trying to tell me what I can and cannot do in my own home – makes me extremely angry.
I personally advocate an independent Scotland, outside the EU and UN, with the coal mines open again and tidal electricity generation and natural gas power plants and a central bank OWNED BY THE PEOPLE to issue it’s currency.
It’s about time smaller, like-minded nations clubbed together and told the globalists where to stick it. I’ll probably get flamed for my idealistic views, but that’s how I feel. Anyway, what’s so good about the status-quo? Austerity, perpetual war, social and economic meltdown, etc., etc.. Think about it. Does the future look good? No.
It seems that Hansen isn’t quite up to date when he thinks that the lack of ice in Hudson Bay causes cold winters in Europe. The (in)famous “Institute for Climate Impact Research” in Potsdam recently put out a study that shows that it is less ice in the Barents Sea that is causing these cold winters in Europe:
“Recent severe winters like last year’s or the one of 2005-06 do not conflict with the global warming picture, but rather supplement it.”
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/global-warming-could-cool-down-temperatures-in-winter
Just one small problem. The ice in the Barents Sea is pretty much normal:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.6.html
Snow? What snow? As that great philosopher, Homer Simpson, often says, “Let’s never talk of that again.”
Go here and have a laugh at the Polar Bear story, then look over on the right at the Most popular in Environment list and learn all about how “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.”
It will be interesting to see if/when someone quietly removes the sorry tale from the list.
and from the Met Office website:
Richard Holle says:
December 17, 2010 at 10:28 pm
179.05yrs, not 178.8. The one you describe (N+U) is 171.4yrs.
Could we call this the ‘Inconvenient Cold’?
“Cold snap drops Beijing’s temperature to 10-year low”
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-12/15/c_13650475.htm
“Huddersfield on target for coldest winter since records began”
http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/local-west-yorkshire-news/2010/12/11/huddersfield-on-target-for-coldest-winter-since-records-began-86081-27805954/
But don’t forget that this is the ‘hottest’ year on the record despite this year seeing snow in the Med, Brazil, millions of tropical fish dead in Bolivia, Argentina’s beaches whitened etc.
>>it’s about as foreign as driving on the wrong side of the road.
If you want to pass another horse rider, and keep your sword side (right side) towards the other rider (just in case), you must ride on the left of the road, with the other equine traffic on the right of you. That is why driving on the left was the original and logical choice.
Wrong-side driving evolved during the French Revolution, when the peasant classes were forced to walk on the opposite side of the road to the equine classes. So right side driving is for the serfs and knaves.
.
jheath says:
December 17, 2010 at 6:12 pm
I am happy to believe in CO2 global warming for now…
I suppose you’re happy to believe in the Father Christmas too (for now).
Look, science is not about what one believes. It is about what one can demonstrate with evidence and data (real data from observations, made available for public scrutiny). Leave belief to the faithful.
savethesharks says:
December 17, 2010 at 11:51 pm
Responding to
Baa Humbug says:
December 17, 2010 at 11:06 pm
.
I made no such claim. I claimed a regime change.
“Yes this is weather, but why is the weather so unusual?”
They have removed the comments some time ago. I wonder why? They will probably keep the page as it gives them much needed visitors as well as ridicule.
Two weeks ago the north and east of the uk got hit by snow, but here in norwich we got virtually no snow.
This week the north, west and today the south are getting tons of snow.
Here in norwich we have a light dusting.
So the whole country, apart from norwich seems to hav been hit.
I put it down to the CRU – its keeping us warm.
Ulric Lyons says:
December 18, 2010 at 2:32 am
Thanks for the correction, Ulric.
Many of the people commenting on this topic seem to think that the current cold spell is evidence against global warming. What they obviously do not understand is that there are two completely different types of global warming. There is normal global warming in which snow melts and there is paradoxical global warming in which temperatures plunge and you get heavy snowfalls.
Lay people can easily understand normal global warming but to understand paradoxical global warming you need to be a climate scientist. To explain the difference I will use Snowdon, the highest mountain in Wales, as an example.
Normal Global Warming
Global warming taking snow out of Snowdonia
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1546534/Global-warming-taking-snow-out-of-Snowdonia.html
“Wales’s highest mountain could lose all its snow in 15 years, say scientists at the University of Wales, Bangor. They have recorded a drop in snowfall of about a third in a decade.” Daily Telegraph, 24 March 2007.
Paradoxical Global Warming
‘Glaciers on Snowdon’ warning by climate expert
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2010/01/12/glaciers-on-snowdon-warning-91466-25576951/
“THIS winter’s prolonged cold spell could be a taste of things to come for Wales – with glaciers a possibility within 40 years. That’s the chilly message from a leading Welsh climate expert who has warned that global warming could paradoxically trigger a collapse in temperatures in western Europe. According to the expert, future Welsh winters could be similar to those in Iceland and southern Greenland now.” Western Mail, January 12 2010.
I am not sure what is happening on Snowdon at the moment but here in South Wales, just 10 miles from Cardiff, I am looking out at the deepest snow I remember seeing here since the late 1970s. Therefore Paradoxical Global Warming seems to be winning.
The lanes are are all blocked. A few weeks ago I brought my very old tobaggan down from the attic and put it in the garage. Unfortunately I do not know anybody who will lend me some huskies to pull it!
In case this global warming continues the British government should start planning for a new Little Ice Age!
Commons statement by energy minister.
Better by 2030 so grin and bear it.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/house_of_commons/newsid_9293000/9293372.stm
In Canada as well.
Record breaking snows and flooded areas.
And “WINTER” has yet to start!
Someone above says it’s cold across North America. Now, I realize that Canada doesn’t count ( all that health cxare), but Nova Scotia is still mild. The damage from Monday’s tropical storm is being cleaned up in non freezing weather. Power and internet reconnected and flooded roads cleared. Forecasts say +/_ the frezzing mark until Xmas with rain now and again. So much for the Great White North.
November here was warm, probably not record warmth but December 2010 is above the warmest December ever recorded.
Hopefully, nights below freezing will save the trees that are budding. They can’t adapt to this new warm winter regime.
“Half a Rossby Wavelength” sounds like blaming the “starboard power coupling” to me. . .(Star Trek shout-out there)
Well, there’s winter, snow and cold as experienced by people – and there’s ‘winter’ as being planned for by local authorities. These rely on past experiences (yes, winters up to 2006/7 were mild here in South Wales, snow was a sensation, and more than 1n inch meant everything broke down) – and on the forecasts by the MET Office.
It is common knowledge that the Met Office has been pushing AGW, and has been forecasting ‘mild winters’. So the local authorities, strapped for cash, have been abandoning plans to cope with snow and ice, and ran out of gritting salts in January this year when the UK was covered in the white stuff.
Why this pre-Christmas snow and ice came as such a surprise, who knows …!
Yesterday, 10 inches of snow fell on Cardiff. There was no wind, there is none today and the sun is shining. It looks beautiful, and nobody in my neighbourhood has been using their cars so the snow hasn’t been compacted to ice.
We’ll have to wait and see if more snow will grace us. It will stay below freezing, so it looks as if we’re going to have the second White Christmas in a row …
Aaron Stonebeat@ur momisugly
The summer was short in the Netherlands, no heat waves no tropical days.
@richard Holle says:
December 17, 2010 at 10:28 pm
“To me this means that the main crux of magnetic connections between the planets is in the normal distribution of concentrations at the poles…”
Which is why connections with the Galactic field is stronger towards the Galactic poles rather than the Galactic equator.
Excellent article Ryan. I appreciate your contributations at WUWT.
Roy says:
December 18, 2010 at 3:13 am
Excellent post, Roy. I read the second link about “Paradoxical Global Warming” and came across this early in the article…
Environmentalists pounced on the warning as a sign of how vital it is that we reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.
This is a microcosm of how global
warmingclimate disruption propaganda works.(1) The government and eco-zealot groups give climate scientist a big chunk of Climate Ca$h.
(2) Climate scientist produces a high profile CAGW report and the all important “press release”.
(3) Eco-zealot groups “pounce” on the press release as proof of global warming and that life as we know will end in two years unless we let the government control our lives.
(4) Government cites reports by the scientist and the eco-zealot groups that increases in global warming research budgets are necessary.
(5) Eco-zealot groups hold fund-raisers and rallies starring the now-famous climate scientist.
(6) Repeat (1) – (5).