Breaking news! December can still be cold and snowy over parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Don’t look to the American media for much information about European weather; it’s about as foreign as driving on the wrong side of the road. But, in Britain, Italy, and the rest of Europe, the past several weeks have seen “the Arctic refrigerator door” swing wide-open. Here are some example headlines:
Arctic freeze to last another month as AA warns of ‘worst driving conditions imaginable’ for Christmas getaways: Mail Online: “With temperatures expected to fall to -15c (5f), the Met Office said this is ‘almost certain’ to become the coldest December since records began in 1910.”
Europe travel mayhem as arctic freeze strikes again: AFP: “In Italy, rare snowfall disrupted the tourist destinations of Pisa and Florence, forced both airports to close and severely disrupted traffic and the region’s rail network.”
Thankfully, Dr. James Hansen has this figured out: Europe is one-half Rossby wavelength downstream from a partially frozen Hudson Bay, which causes Europe to become colder, or something: from NASA’s government funded blog:
Back to the cold air in Europe: is it possible that reduced Arctic sea ice is affecting weather patterns? Because Hudson Bay (and Baffin Bay, west of Greenland) are at significantly lower latitudes than most of the Arctic Ocean, global warming may cause them to remain ice free into early winter after the Arctic Ocean has become frozen insulating the atmosphere from the ocean. The fixed location of the Hudson-Baffin heat source could plausibly affect weather patterns, in a deterministic way — Europe being half a Rossby wavelength downstream, thus producing a cold European anomaly in the trans-Atlantic seesaw. Several ideas about possible effects of the loss of Arctic sea ice on weather patterns are discussed in papers referenced by Overland, Wang and Walsh.
However, we note in our Reviews of Geophysics paper that the few years just prior to 2009-2010, with low Arctic sea ice, did not produce cold winters in Europe. The cold winter of 2009-2010 was associated with the most extreme Arctic Oscillation in the period of record. Figure 3, from our paper, shows that 7 of the last 10 European winters were warmer than the 1951-1980 average winter, and 10 of the past 10 summers were warmer than climatology. The average warming of European winters is at least as large as the average warming of summers, but it is less noticeable because of the much greater variability in winter.
This is the trap that statistical/data manipulators like Hansen have fallen into: in the past, they would freely say: “of course you cannot attribute one weather event to global warming, but the likelihood of that event has become higher because it’s the extremes that are going to increase the most”, or something like that. Now, there is no pretense to equivocate about what the atmosphere is doing: weather has become climate, and necessarily so for the continued narrative of global warming alarmism. The trap is that they do not understand the underlying meteorology or climatology from basic dynamics — instead giving hand-wavy explanations with some citations thrown in from their colleagues.
To adequately attribute an ongoing weather/short-term climate event to AGW, considerable data analysis and time must be invested into researching many different avenues. It is a disservice to those interested in climate variability for senior scientists to supply hand-wavy, reflexive out-of-their-behinds explanations to the media to further their obvious political agenda. This actually goes for both sides of the climate aisle.
In the meantime, Europe continues to enjoy the effects of global warming or the Arctic Oscillation or the North Atlantic Oscillation, or something. It’s hubris and arrogance to think you have the Winter of 2010-2011 all summed up before it even starts.
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TomRude says:
December 17, 2010 at 4:19 pm
Are you sure it’s half a wavelength off? Seems like he’s less out of phase than orthogonal to reality. 😉
PaulH says:
Surely they were recording temperatures prior to 1910, weren’t they?
Cherry picking time again.
Evidently they’re freezing their arses off. And doing half Rossbies on the ice. Which is like a double Brodie here.
Let me restate my previous post.
The monthly mean Central England temperature up to December 16 ,2010 was 0.6 C. The anomaly from the norm was -4.3 C.The expected cold for the next month will bring this mean temperature of 0.6 C down significantly by year end .
The nearest previous Central England temperatures for the entire month of December were:
1981 0.3C
1890 -0.8 C
-15c oh no! [:)] That’s a warm day in Edmonton in the 1970’s when I was growing up there! Once or thrice it even got to -44c without wind chills… although it’d be -30c or so up to -20c… or so…
it sure is nice to have a sunny -20c to -15c day after weeks of -30c I can tell you… I remember as kid wearing t-shirts outside in the -20c sunshine and throwing snow balls for a couple of hours after a -35c period… it was almost like a cool spring morning… the snow was moist from heating up and made excellent packing into hand sized missiles… there wasn’t any breeze that day though… nor any clouds…
Oh and -30c with wind chill factors is about -40c with a small breeze and much worse with any serious wind… (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Windchill_chart.GIF) so you have to be prepared… it’s not just the cold static temperature that matters it’s also the wind chill factors and nobody seems to ever mention that in all these climate discussions… but they taught us about it as kids at school while living in the cold doldrums of Edmonton Winters! I guess they didn’t want us freezing to death in the play ground or on the way to or from school…
“Wind chill (often popularly called the wind chill factor) is the felt air temperature on exposed skin due to wind. It measures the effect of wind on air temperature. The wind chill temperature is usually lower than the air temperature, since the air temperature is usually lower than the human body temperature. In contrast, humidity on the skin can result in a higher felt air temperature, and the heat index is used instead.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_chill
“Q. Why is wind chill not always indicated in the current conditions or in the forecast?
A. Wind chill is indicated in current conditions only when the temperature is 0°C or lower, with a wind speed of 2 km/h or more. In general, wind chill is mentioned in a forecast only if it is expected to be significant, that is to say, if wind chill is expected to be -25 or colder, with a forecast wind speed greater than 10 km/h.”
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/mainmenu/faq_e.html#weather2b
In the UK we are constantly inundated with the hottest this and the warmest that etc.
But why has the UK in the shape of CET has become disconnected from the rest of the planet?
The UK CET shows a distinct decade long cooling trend:-
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_graph_ylybars_uptodate.gif
Last years annual seasonal mean CET was completed at the end of November and we have to go back 23 years to 1987 to find a cooler annual mean.
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean.txt
This is not about a few cold winters, back in 2006 the CET was hailed as an indicator of Global Doom:-
“The hottest year since 1659 spells global doom”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1536852/The-hottest-year-since-1659-spells-global-doom.html
Last years “growing season” April to October” was 0.6c cooler than 2009 and some 1.6c cooler than 2006.
I wonder why CET is no longer an indicator of global temperatures?
Or maybe is it that the UK is now on Brussels temperature?
Coldest December in Sweden for 135 years
Apparently, it’s not been this cold in Sweden, in December since the 1860’s.
Aren’t these folks embarrassed that they haven’t been able to predict anything over the past several decades? No prospective explanations have worked out for them. Yet they insist to use their 20/20 hindsight and bloviate as to what they are currently observing, and somehow no matter what’s going on in the present weather, it’s due to AGW. Truely unbelievable. In Pharma, you have to predict X and actually get X or no drug approval. No explanations and no approval. End of discussion. But in climate “science” you can just make it up as you go along. It’s actually quite annoying to those of us that actually do real science.
OT, but to clear up a few misconceptions
Left hand drive arose in America due to the Conestoga Waggon, this had the braking lever on the left side of the front driving seat, consequently, as what passed for roads then were developed, the practice of driving with the driver controlling both horses and brakes sitting on the left side of the waggon , as the drivers needed to see what was coming at them, driving with the centre of the road to the left of the driver became the norm.
Once motorised vehicles became more common, this same concept and design was carried over.
http://library.thinkquest.org/6400/wagon.htm
There are more websites discussing this, but all eventually track back to the Conestoga Waggon, and the its wide spread use prior to motorised vehicles.
Excuse my spelling in places, I learnt English English.
Just heard on Melbourne Australia news that snow is expected down to 1200m on Monday. I say thank God for global warming or it would be really cold.
Science sometimes says – I don’t know. Religion always knows the answer – god did it. It seems that their god is global warming. It sure is not science.
Apparently, China is also experiencing unusually cold weather and high snowfall. Saw a UTube on the havoc it is causing, apparently because it is unprecedented in modern times.
I bet, it will still be the warmest year on record.
Apparently, China is also experiencing unusually cold and snowy weather.
mod, please edit out the superfluous “the” in the last sentence ty
And why can’t we have a preview button????????????????????
REPLY: It stays, and for the 100 th time, wordpress.com hosted blogs can’t have a preview function, because they don’t allow plugins, and preview is not part of the base set of features. I can’t argue with FREE HOSTING, so live with it. I’m bolding this so that other people might see it and stop asking. – A
Walter Cronanty says:
December 17, 2010 at 4:43 pm
From one of the articles linked:
“Thousands of rural homes could be left without heating this winter as the worsening weather hits deliveries of oil.
Even if they get the oil they need to heat their homes and cook, many will have to cut back on how much they use because the price of the fuel has almost doubled in a month.
***
Michelle Mitchell, of Age UK, said: ‘Many older people have told us they would rather turn the heating off than risk a bill they can’t afford. Plummeting temperatures will once again spell misery, ill health and in some cases even death.’”
That is just terribly sad. I will save my usual snark re: How’s that alternative energy workin’ out for ya? for another time. How in the hell have my ancestors come to this? Tons of coal, but the oldest and the poorest freeze to death. Good lord, I hope we don’t end up in the same sorry state.
————————————————————————————-
I thought advanced societies did better than this….
….our governments should be taken out and beat
Walter, this is truly sad and upsetting
Where I live in the UK (near Cambridge), we’ve only had a light dusting of snow so far this winter, and it’s only around -5C. The worst thing I’ve had to deal with is ice on the inside of my car windscreen :p.
Still, if there are any meteorologists present, I would be interested to know why East Anglia seems to have avoided the bad weather, when all areas around it have taken such a beating.
“With temperatures expected to fall to -15c (5f), the Met Office said this is ‘almost certain’ to become the coldest December since records began in 1910.”
notice how they did not say
“With temperatures expected to fall to -15c (5f), the Met Office said this is ‘almost certain’ to become the coldest December on record”
contrast this with how they regularly make statements about second, third etc. “warmest year on record”
The Met Office spokespersons are so transparently propagandists that Pravda would be proud.
There appears to be a reluctance to discuss cold weather events in the general media. What could be causing the sudden cold weather events? When does weather become cooling climate change?
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=rare_deep_freeze_prompts_cha_171210?ref=ccbox_weather_category2
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=snow_and_ice_in_germany_lead_171210
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=cold_weather_grips_italy_171210
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=cold_snap_grips_cuba_with_ne_161210?ref=ccbox_homepage_topstories
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=cold_front_moves_into_spain_161210
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101217/ap_on_re_eu/eu_europe_weather
Comments from an old Yorkshire git, if you will permit. Weather rather than climate, I fear, and no scientist, just an energy economist.
We always used to say that snow before Christmas meant no snow afterwards, and that is from my Dad, born 1914. After the 1920s and 1930s he was shocked by 1947, and again by 62/63. Last year was different with serious snow before and after for the first time that I can remember. A bit like Rupert Matthews’ Mum above.
One commenter mentions 1981. 1981 December was cold (I crashed my car and could have died, so I remember) but from Christmas it was springlike. I bet this year will be the same, despite the solar coolists and the CO2 warmists.
BUT, in my business travels this autumn everyone from Africa to the Caribbean to North America (not the warm Eastern bit) has commented on the cold. Very unscientific, of course. My Latin American colleagues have been struggling with colder weather for 3 years now.
I am happy to believe in CO2 global warming for now, but I know that the economics of mitigation are utterly stupid (I hope you are reading this, Mr Huhne). If the science is stupid as well (Herr Gerlach seems to think so and he is at a good university), then we will have to follow the students and go for civil disobedience. Just think what high energy prices (for wind and solar) is doing to my 3 ageing aunts.
Come on the UK opposition – Labour, Trades Unions and the anti-poverty lobbyists – lets have some action on behalf of the oppressed. Down with feed-in tariffs.
Looks like Mann and Jones had everything right – those tree ring proxies do predict a sharp temperature decline about now after all. If only Mike and Phil hadn’t hidden that part of the graph – they might have picked up another Nobel each.
Frozen fountains in Rome: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12022394
Kaboom says:
December 17, 2010 at 4:58 pm
“Historically, driving on the left has been the “correct” approach, as determined by cart tracks leading towards (light tracks) and away from (heavy tracks) a Roman-era quarry.”
If you are a team-sport athlete, you will recognize that right handers move best to their left and left handers move best to their right. By move best, I mean that peripheral vision is best and movement is quicker, faster, and stronger. Of course, this might be irrelevant to driving.
Meanwhile, as Britain freezes, Jim Hansen tries to make sure it freezes even more by cutting off its coal supply…
My area of Ohio is pretty cold also. I dumped a bucket of water onto the pavement Saturday night and watched it freeze in about 4 minutes. It was pretty cool, no pun intended. I doubt we are on pace for any records, but it has been consistently below freezing. Night time lows have been hovering around 15F(-9.4C) to as low as 6F(-14.4C). The highs have been around 25F(-3.9C), so I feel pretty strongly we will have a white Christmas. See how I converted to Celsius? Taking a page from the alarmist playbook there. 😉
Snow is a thing of the past. Especially in Britannia. Just like parts of N.Y. are underwater. Just like a myriad of other wild assertions made by the people that are demanding that we trust them.
There is, indeed, a trend to make of this. Like the name of a frequent poster here, it is incumbent upon us to “hold their feet to the fire.”