December 3rd, 2010 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2010 1 0.648 0.860 0.436 0.681
2010 2 0.603 0.720 0.486 0.791
2010 3 0.653 0.850 0.455 0.726
2010 4 0.501 0.799 0.203 0.633
2010 5 0.534 0.775 0.292 0.708
2010 6 0.436 0.550 0.323 0.476
2010 7 0.489 0.635 0.342 0.420
2010 8 0.511 0.674 0.347 0.364
2010 9 0.603 0.555 0.650 0.285
2010 10 0.426 0.370 0.482 0.156
2010 11 0.381 0.513 0.249 -0.071
The tropical tropospheric temperature anomaly for November continued its cooling trend, finally falling below the 1979-1998 average…but the global anomaly is still falling slowly:+0.38 deg. C for October, 2010.
2010 is now in a dead heat with 1998 for warmest year.
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From my calculations, if Dec ’10 is over .394 anomaly, we’ll have a new record….
+0.38 deg. C plus or minus what now?
eadler says:
December 3, 2010 at 8:27 pm
If Hearnden listens to the climate scientists his hogs will be wearing sundresses when they freeze in the fields. I’m sure he will instead rely, as farmers always have, on his personal weather eye and ignore the expensive hullabaloo about climate change. Anyway, I suspect he was taking the mick, in a Devonshire kind of way.
Despite the solar minimum, the decade from 2000 to 2009 has been by far the warmest decade of the modern record. Not sure how anyone would conclude that warming has stopped, based on 1998 being a warm year. As a scientist, my inclination is to look at trends, rather than focusing on outlier years, such as 1998.
Here is an NASA analysis for the decade of 2000-2009.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/temp-analysis-2009.html
The idea that the earth right now is at the “perfect” temperature is rubbish.
There is not a spot on earth on the equator that is too hot for human beings to live. Life thrives on the equator. Contrast this to the poles.
The “average” temperature of the earth is about 14 C according to the official measurements. However, the minimum temperature at which a human being can survive long term on food alone, without clothing and shelter is 27 C.
That means, on average, the earth is too cold for human beings to survive unless we had developed clothing and fire. Without clothing and fire we would still be living in Africa near the equator.
If you have any doubt about this, go outside where you live today in a bathing suit and see how long you can last. Maybe, in summer you will be OK until the sun goes down. If you life near the equator. Otherwise, without clothing and shelter you will die, no matter how much you eat.
The earth has been much warmer in the past, and we survived with stone age tools. How pitiful are we today if we cannot survive with all our technology.
As others have said, this could be the warmest year in the satellite record, which started in 1979 near the bottom of a cool period. Not impressive.
eadler says:
December 3, 2010 at 8:27 pm
@Peter Hearnden
December 3, 2010 at 4:29 pm
Your admission is honest.
If you recognize that you are “simple folk” , you should listen to what the climate scientists have to say, rather than look at the weather in your own backyard, as the basis for your conclusions.opinion on global warming.
======================================
Eadler,
Your admission is arrogant.
If you recognize (you don’t) that you are part of the CAGW Mass Groupthink Religious Cult, you should listen to what the people who actually are out in the the weather and climate, have to say, rather than rely on flawed model projections, as the basis for your conclusions.opinion [sic] on global warming.
Rely on climate scientists, like the ones at the UK Met, eh, Eadler?
The ones who have caused Britain to get caught with their pants down over several severe winters and the ones who in about 2000 said that snowfalls will become a thing of the past for the UK???
I think Mr. Hearnden’s “back yard” opinion carries more weight than yours ever will, and probably more weight than some climate “scientists” who are stupidly barking up the CO2 tree even as the snow starts to fall around them, turning their paws blue.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
anna v says:
December 4, 2010 at 3:34 am
In Greece we are a the lower part of the globe, contributing to the rise in temperatures. In the astronomical records of Athens, temperatures kept since 1890 the only November that was this warm was in 1926.
It is 30C degrees in Crete, and 23C in the Athens area, with warm dusty winds from Africa. Up north there are floods, but here only cloudy, no rains.
My tangerine tree which still has ripening fruit, is blooming :(.
=============================
That huge block which has NW Europe in the icy grip right now, with the jet stream just not migrating, is pumping the subtropical ridge in your part of the world.
Bastardi pointed out a couple of years ago that we were headed into more extremes of climate, where weather systems get locked into place for a longer time, and he was right.
Well for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, and Bastardi (who is quite good in the long range) is bullish on southern Europe getting into the winter act as time wears on, especially beginning in January and into the spring….so we shall see.
The core of the cold, led by the polar jet, should collapse toward the southeast, getting Greece into some of the action.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
eadler says:
December 3, 2010 at 8:27 pm
“have a powerful effect on global average temperatures. So the elevated global temperature of 1998 is weather noise rather than the indication of a peak in a warming trend.”
So the globally high temperature of 2010 must be the same, as it follows an El Nino.
Thanks for clearing this up, eadler, i supposed so. Good to hear a warmist confirming it. Finally we can agree on something.
So, no warming trend. Just a blip.
Eadler, are you referring to the guys who said: “the dog ate/we lost/it’s here somewhere/it takes too long to compile/just say no to requests for” the original raw data? Yes sir. They do seem like trusting folks after all.
Where did my post go?
Lie, Lie, that something remains
The “Satellite-Gate” explains all differences:
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6144&linkbox=true&position=2
Steinar Midtskogen says:
December 3, 2010 at 10:23 pm
“Since so many have experienced long cold spells this year, I assume the global heat has to be explained by a very warm year in largely uninhabited areas, which is plausible since these areas are big. ”
…and typically lack thermometers… how very, very convenient…
“Despite the solar minimum, the decade from 2000 to 2009 has been by far the warmest decade of the modern record.”
BillD, why do you (and others like you) think it’s a light switch? Ever heard of thermal inertia of the ocean? We just had 2 STRONG cycles back to back (#22 and #23). That heat went somewhere, and it doesn’t disappear the instant the sun goes to sleep….
savethesharks says:
December 4, 2010 at 7:56 am
“The ones who have caused Britain to get caught with their pants down over several severe winters and the ones who in about 2000 said that snowfalls will become a thing of the past for the UK???”
Is this the BBC report you cite? http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/1951784.stm
The Met office statement made in 2002 that suggested some parts of Scotland could have snow free winters within the next 80years?…Having stressed that they couldn’t be completely confident in those predictions anyway.
Has Peter Hearnden had a Damascene conversion or is someone pretending to be him while writing sensibly?
BillD says:
December 4, 2010 at 7:12 am
“Here is an NASA analysis for the decade of 2000-2009.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/temp-analysis-2009.html
”
Oh, data adjusted by GISS. Does anyone still take Hansen seriously? Constantly re-adjusting the past to become colder is not science, it’s a technique right out of 1984 to achieve the goals that the activist Hansen wants to achieve.
For a southeast USA who just had one of the hottest summers ever, check out the “rubber band effect” in action in the mountains (you west coast people would call them hills) of North Carolina.
http://www.highcountrywebcams.com/webcameras_BeechSlopeside2.htm
http://www.highcountrywebcams.com/webcameras_Beech_Charlies.htm
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Do we talk about the average day and night temperature or only average day temperature. This because we know that in the cities it´s much warmer during the night than in the countryside. Because our cities are getting bigger average temperatures are getting higher. This has nothing to do with CO2.
example De Bilt Netherlands
http://www.klimaatfraude.info/images/de-bilt.gif
http://www.klimaatfraude.info/ is like Watts Up With That but in Dutch
2010 is now in a dead heat with 1998 for warmest year.
Temperature went slightly up at the end of 1998. Temperature should continue down at the end of 2010. 2010 should end up slightly cooler than 1998.
end of 1998:
http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/2496/uahlt1979thrunov10cropz.gif
Tim Williams says:
December 4, 2010 at 9:02 am
Is this the BBC report you cite? http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/1951784.stm
The Met office statement made in 2002 that suggested some parts of Scotland could have snow free winters within the next 80years?…Having stressed that they couldn’t be completely confident in those predictions anyway.
===================================
Thanks for that. Hadley / East Anglia / Met at their finest LOL.
As far as confidence….that last quote by Professor Curran seemed pretty confident to me.
Professor Curran to the BBC in 2002:
“Some people say they see the climate changing already. But certainly within the next 10-20 years we are really going to start noticing it.”
I’m sorry, but cue the Charlie Brown laugh: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Mother Nature and her poetic justice.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Pamela Gray says: “Where did my post go?”
Errrr. I hate when that happens.
[Reply: It is frustrating. Pamela’s post was in the spam folder. Rescued & posted now. WordPress doesn’t disclose the words/phrases that cause this action. They only say that multiple links put a post into spam. ~dbs, mod.]
eadler says: December 3, 2010 at 8:27 pm
“If you recognize that you are “simple folk” , you should listen to what the climate scientists have to say, rather than look at the weather in your own backyard, as the basis for your conclusions.opinion on global warming.”
And therein lies the rub. Should we listen to Hansen, Jones and Santer or Lindzen, Christy, Spencer and Pielke sr.?
Incidently, the claim that since 2010 temps are a tie with 1998 indicates co2 forcing because the El Nino in 2010 was smaller than the one in 1998 is, in fact, an argumentium ignoratium. It is identical in form to the argument that co2 forcing is responsible for 20th warming because models cannot hindcast the climate without co2 forcing. The fallacy is that it is built on the implicit assumption that only co2 forcings and enso events are responsible for global average temperatures. Therefore, by simple arithmetic: Temp(Big el nino + small co2 forcing) = Temp(small el nino + big co2 forcing).
Utter nonsense.
I have no doubt that the argument is being trotted out as a propaganda exercise to convince the gullible that no warming actually means warming.
“Temperature went slightly up at the end of 1998. ”
UAH data does not really agree with this. November and Dec 1998 were the 2 coolest months of that year at .19C and .29C anomaly.
Unless you mean Dec was slightly warmer than November. But that’s kinda picking nits…
“For a southeast USA who just had one of the hottest summers ever, check out the “rubber band effect” in action in the mountains (you west coast people would call them hills) of North Carolina.”
It was an odd summer here. In the Charlotte area where I am, we broke 1 (one) daily high record and broke 1 (one) daily LOW record (early July).
This next week is going to be “old-time” cold in NC. Forecast is 40/20 all week. Very cold for this part of the country this time of year. The mountains (hills) likely will not get above freezing this week.