No mention of the IPCC’s flawed 2035 date, but still many of the same talking points are used. It pays to recycle I suppose. This statement:
“But climate change is still happening and we do need to prepare for it. That’s especially true in this part of the world, where poverty and other concerns make its residents very vulnerable to any change.”
…strikes a chord. I’ll point out that our climate now is different than 100, 200, 500, 1000, and 2000 years ago. Did anybody “prepare for it” then? No, and we all seem to be doing better than ever now as a species. – Anthony
From the DOE Pacific Northwest National Laboratory News:
Time to prepare for climate change
Himalayan region’s glaciers melting slowly, but impacts still coming
WASHINGTON – Though the massive glaciers of the greater Himalayan region are retreating slowly, development agencies can take steps now to help the region’s communities prepare for the many ways glacier melt is expected to impact their lives, according to a new report. Programs that integrate health, education, the environment and social organizations are needed to adequately address these impacts, the report states.
“The extremely high altitudes and sheer mass of High Asian glaciers mean they couldn’t possibly melt in the next few decades,” said Elizabeth Malone, a Battelle sociologist and the report’s technical lead. “But climate change is still happening and we do need to prepare for it. That’s especially true in this part of the world, where poverty and other concerns make its residents very vulnerable to any change.”
The report, Changing Glaciers and Hydrology in Asia: Addressing Vulnerability to Glacier Melt Impacts, was prepared in collaboration with Battelle and the U.S. Agency for International Development. Battelle operates the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, Wash. Malone works from the Joint Global Change Research Institute in College Park, Md., a collaboration between PNNL and the University of Maryland.
Malone will join Mary Melnyk, a USAID natural resource management senior advisor, and Kristina Yarrow, a USAID health advisor, to discuss the findings Tuesday at 10 a.m. Eastern time at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. Geoff Dabelko, director of the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program, will moderate the discussion.
The event is open to the public, though RSVPs should be sent to ecsp@wilsoncenter.org. The Wilson Center is located inside the Ronald Reagan Building at 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. Directions are available online at www.wilsoncenter.org/directions. A live webcast will also be hosted at http://www.wilsoncenter.org. The report will be available at the event and posted online at www.usaid.gov.
Vulnerable to change
High Asia is dominated by many steep, dramatic mountain ranges that run through parts of Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, India, China, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and other countries. The region is home to more than 50,000 glaciers that are vital water lifelines to Asia’s largest rivers, including the Yellow, Yangtze, Mekong, Indus and Ganges. Roughly two billion people depend on these rivers for their water and food supply.
Unfortunately, many people who live in High Asia and along the river basins fed by the region’s glaciers already experience malnutrition and food insecurity, insufficient access to clean water and sanitation, and other issues that will be exacerbated by climate change and population growth. The challenge for agencies like USAID is to incorporate climate change into their existing development efforts so that quality of life continues to improve in the developing world.
“This report lays out what are the potential impacts of glacier melt on sectors such as health and agriculture while exploring how USAID programs could respond to the challenges of changing water supplies,” Melnyk said.
More information needed
Although the world’s glaciers have slowly been retreating since 1850 — the end of what climate scientists refer to as the Little Ice Age — those in High Asia haven’t melted as quickly, mostly due to the glaciers’ location in elevations higher and colder than many other glacier systems, the report notes.
But there’s little historical information about High Asian glaciers to predict their future. The data that does exist consists mostly of physical measurements taken at the glaciers’ most accessible spots, their lowest ends. Glaciers are dynamic and routinely grow in some areas while shedding ice in others. The lower segments are more prone to change due to the higher temperatures associated with lower elevations, making the measurements taken there less reliable. Remote sensing technology has allowed researchers to measure glaciers over larger areas in recent years, but there isn’t much historical data to provide a long-term picture.
The report states that many Himalayan glaciers are retreating, especially at lower elevations, but that no region-wide evidence supports the claim that they’re retreating faster than any other location in the world. The report also recommends that scientists collaborate internationally to show the glaciers’ overall ice balance on a regional scale.
Preparing for the future
One of the most pressing near-term impacts that scientists can study are glacier lake outburst floods. Unlike the widespread deluges that some inaccurately fear could follow sudden glacial melting, these floods are due to slow melting and occur on a smaller scale. They typically happen when an advancing glacier dams a river or water builds up behind soil and rocks deposited by a glacier.
Those most affected by the floods are residents of the rural villages close to glaciers. Although the number of people directly impacted can be small, the damage is often extensive. Glacier lake floods can be so destructive “that people who survive must move and begin to rebuild their lives in other places,” the report notes. More than 25 glacier lake outburst floods have been recorded in Bhutan, Nepal and Tibet since the 1930s and more will likely occur as climate change progresses.
Retreating glaciers can also heighten existing water worries. In the Indus River Basin, for example, glacier melt accounts for about 30 percent of the river’s water supply. Retreating glaciers would lessen the river’s overall flow, but that impact would likely be more dramatic as the region’s population growth increases the demand for water. The Indus River Basin is already home to more than 200 million people, and the region’s high fertility rates mean its population will continue to grow rapidly. As a result, the region’s per capita water availability will decline steeply. The issue is compounded by the large amount of irrigated land there. “The current vulnerabilities will likely worsen with increasing uncertainties related to water supply,” the report notes.
Human health also stands to be affected by climate change in High Asia. Less available water could mean higher pollution levels and increased difficulty obtaining clean water and sanitation “for hundreds of millions in these watersheds,” reads the report. Diarrhea and other diseases linked to biological and chemical contamination are likely, the report notes. Decreased water availability could also cause declining crop yields and food availability, which would worsen existing hunger issues in the region.
Other impacts discussed in the report include increased civil conflict across country borders due to unstable water supplies and declining ecosystem health that further endangers threatened animals and plants.
Many birds with a few stones
Such expected impacts make for a fairly daunting list. But the report makes several suggestions to address multiple issues at once with cross-sectoral development programs.
For example, programs that focus on agriculture, one of the largest water-use activities, could improve water efficiency and help address water scarcity. This approach could increase crop productivity to address hunger and malnutrition, and strengthen local water-user associations to improve governance capabilities.
Another threat to High Asia’s glaciers, soot, can be reduced while also improving local health, the report suggests. The region’s rural residents cook over traditional stoves that burn wood, agricultural waste, dung and other biomass. The stoves are inefficient and release soot, also known as black carbon, and other aerosols. The black carbon travels through the air and can land on glaciers, which then absorb more sunlight and melt faster. People – mostly women and children – living in the homes where the stoves are used are also harmed. They experience respiratory diseases, heart disease, stillbirth, cataracts and more from the indoor air pollution. More than 1.6 million people in the region die each year as a result.
To counteract this, development agencies could work with scientists, health specialists, technology experts and government officials to develop and make accessible cooking stoves that are more efficient and create fewer emissions. The collaborators could also work closely with women to address health issues by offering alternative cooking practices. And scientific organizations could improve observations and models of glacier melt in relation to soot. Such information could be used by local leaders to develop local methods to reduce soot emissions and improve glacier stability.
“Agencies like USAID already have assets and expertise that have advanced the developing world for years,” Malone said. “This report offers a menu of options on how those assets can also be used to address the many issues that will arise from climate change.”
EVENT: “Changing Glaciers and Hydrology in Asia: Developing a Blueprint for Addressing Glacier Melt in the Region,” Elizabeth Malone, Mary Melnyk and Kristina Yarrow. 10 a.m.- 12 noon, Eastern time, Tuesday, Nov. 16, 2010, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Ronald Reagan Building , 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., Washington, D.C. http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=events.event_summary&event_id=641631
REPORT: “Changing Glaciers and Hydrology in Asia: Addressing Vulnerabilities to Glacier Melt Impacts,” Elizabeth Malone, Mary Melnyk, Kristina Yarrow, Richard Armstrong, Leona D’Agnes, Jessica Ayres, John Gavin, Scott Harding, Ken McNamara, Brian Melchior, Fred Rosenweig, George Taylor, Heather D’Agnes and Rochelle Rainey. CDM International and TRG collaborated to develop the report. www.usaid.gov
Tags: Environment, Fundamental Science, Climate Change
Battelle is the world’s largest non-profit independent research and development organization, providing innovative solutions to the world’s most pressing needs through its four global businesses: Laboratory Management, National Security, Energy Technology, and Health and Life Sciences. It advances scientific discovery and application by conducting $5.2 billion in global R&D annually through contract research, laboratory management and technology commercialization. Headquartered in Columbus, Ohio, Battelle oversees 20,400 employees in more than 130 locations worldwide, including seven national laboratories which Battelle manages or co-manages for the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and two international laboratories—a nuclear energy lab in the United Kingdom and a renewable energy lab in Malaysia.
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is a Department of Energy Office of Science national laboratory where interdisciplinary teams advance science and technology and deliver solutions to America’s most intractable problems in energy, the environment and national security. PNNL employs 4,900 staff, has an annual budget of nearly $1.1 billion, and has been managed by Ohio-based Battelle since the lab’s inception in 1965. Follow PNNL on Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter.
Frances White, PNNL, (509) 375-6904
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It may come as a shock to the agws, that we are at the very end of the 11,500 year Interglacial Warmup Period. All glaciers should be melting. I would be very worried about the glaciers that are growing, which might be signaling the end of the present IWP.
Well – I do believe it when scientists tell me the world will end – in a few billion years! So of course by then, or perhaps a few million years before, all glaciers will be gone!
From the article: “One of the most pressing near-term impacts that scientists can study are glacier lake outburst floods. Unlike the widespread deluges that some inaccurately fear could follow sudden glacial melting, these floods are due to slow melting and occur on a smaller scale. They typically happen when an advancing glacier dams a river or water builds up behind soil and rocks deposited by a glacier.”
So now “one of the most pressing near-term impacts” is from ADVANCING glaciers? Can’t they at least get the fear of warming/cooling consistent within this one paper?
biggest threat to glaciers? gravity
“Many birds with a few stones”
Did they leave off the “Kill” because killing birds would sound non-PC and non-vegan? Besides, who still needs stones to kill birds when we have huge rotating blades…
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is a Department of Energy Office of Science national laboratory where interdisciplinary teams advance science and technology and deliver solutions to America’s most intractable problems in energy, the environment and national security.
Why is the United State’s Department of Energy working on ice in the Himalayas? Is there a solution to an intractable energy problem in this? I doubt it. Cut the budget on this Office of Science program.
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose
“Retreating glaciers would lessen the river’s overall flow, but that impact would likely be more dramatic as the region’s population growth increases the demand for water.”
When precipitation falls on glaciers and doesn’t melt, the glacier grows. That obviously isn’t going to end up in streams anytime soon. When glaciers retreat, more water is melted and it adds to the rivers. That seems pretty basic and obvious. How are retreating glaciers going to reduce the water in Rivers. That would be the case if it didn’t melt and it accumulated water. Do these people not think that the amount of precipitation plus the melt equals the amount in rivers. They seem to have it backwards. I would think they would be more worried about glaciers expanding and the water not making it to the rivers. I must be too dumb to see that 2+2=4.
So, the “technical lead” is a sociologist, not a scientist.
That might explain the slight contradiction in a report which highlights a risk which has always been there – glacial lake bursts – and the need of a growing population to consume more fresh water, which presumably could come from…….err, melting glaciers.
Next!
Mr.Watt:
have yor read “The 82 billion prediction”? it is from roger pielke jr.’s blog (link: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/11/82-billion-prediction.html).
i think you have to…
Rhetorical Question – Why does almost every press release, paper or presentation by warming scientists include a bid for more money?
At least this one is seeking to allocate better (from the writer’s perspective) the enormous amount of funding that is already in place.
I have only one small comment;
http://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdf
Interesting how they try to lay the blame for problems the poor face on “climate change”. Anything to keep on that CAGW gravy train, I suppose.
We did do something the last 100 years to prepare….we got Energy.
Lots of Energy.
Now they want to take it away.
They’re dreaming of a Feudal Utopian.
Kings & Lords need subjects.
NZ Glaciers holding up?
“Glacier snowline in steady state by end of summer”
“In effect, the average amount of snow which fell from autumn 2009 to the end of summer 2010 was slightly more than the amount of snow which melted on these glaciers over that same period.”
http://www.niwa.co.nz/news-and-publications/news/all/glacier-snowline-in-steady-state-by-end-of-summer
OT anybody heard anything about the “revised” NZ temp set? Last heard of in “peer review” at OZ BOM?
Parasites!
“There are big pretty mountains and lots of poor people – so give me a well paid and exciting job where I get to fly all around the world and tell everyone how I am saving people.”
By the way, I don’t see how measuring water flows on glaciers is going to improve how millions of people cook their dinners.
“..development agencies could work with scientists, health specialists, technology experts and government officials to develop and make accessible cooking stoves that are more efficient and create fewer emissions” – what self serving BS. I also dont think you need teams of scientists and sociologists and government officials to tell women it would be better if they cooked dinner on an electric stove than on goat dung, we dont seem to need NGO workers here as sales people for Harvey Norman (white goods store).
Think of all the poor sods whose annual tax payment went to pay “scientists, health specialists, technology experts and government officials”. No person is going to pay for all these parasites voluntarily. Since they are forced to pay they would probably prefer their money go straight to the “poor people” than pay mortgages and plane fares for these self important and sanctimonious ticks.
I do like the report’s emphasis on getting people off biofuels and onto fossil fuels to save the glaciers…
I agree with Warren in Minnesota!
Why is PNNL using my tax dollars to rant on World Affairs and what does this have to do with “solutions to America’s most intractable problems in energy, the environment and national security”?
Unless I’m missing something, this is a regional Asia and India problem to solve. The particulate matter “soot” is Not coming from the USA; see the link to the map below.
“Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is a Department of Energy Office of Science national laboratory where interdisciplinary teams advance science and technology and deliver solutions to America’s most intractable problems in energy, the environment and national security. PNNL employs 4,900 staff, has an annual budget of nearly $1.1 billion, and has been managed by Ohio-based Battelle since the lab’s inception in 1965.”
New Map Offers a Global View of Health-Sapping Air Pollution
source: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/health-sapping.html
“Their map, which shows the average PM2.5 results between 2001 and 2006, offers the most comprehensive view of the health-sapping particles to date. Though the new blending technique has not necessarily produced more accurate pollution measurements over developed regions that have well-established surface-based monitoring networks, it has provided the first PM2.5 satellite estimates in a number of developing countries that have had no estimates of air pollution levels until now.”
“The map shows very high levels of PM2.5 in a broad swath stretching from the Saharan Desert in Northern Africa to Eastern Asia. When compared with maps of population density, it suggests more than 80 percent of the world’s population breathe polluted air that exceeds the World Health Organization’s recommended level of 10 micrograms per cubic meter. Levels of PM2.5 are comparatively low in the United States, though noticeable pockets are clearly visible over urban areas in the Midwest and East.”
That’s especially true in this part of the world, where poverty and other concerns make its residents very vulnerable to any change.”
Things are changing, you know. Think you should worry about growing poverty in other parts of the world, while we are entering in a Maunder like Minimum….
Then, as George Carlin said: “Pack you sh##s folks!”
jorge c. says:
November 15, 2010 at 2:10 pm
“Mr.Watt:
have yor read “The 82 billion prediction”? it is from roger pielke jr.’s blog (link: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/11/82-billion-prediction.html ).
i think you have to…”
InsuranceGate!
“At the same time that RMS was rolling out its new model in 2006, an RMS scientist was serving as a lead author for the IPCC AR4. He inserted a graph (below) into the report suggesting a relationship between the costs of disasters and rising temperatures, when in fact the peer-reviewed literature said the opposite.”
The IPCC, simply everybody’s darling… Modeled after best pactices of the Oil For Food Program, ROTFLMAO…
There’s nothing better than a sociologist telling you the science is settled.
Charles S. Opalek, PE says:
November 15, 2010 at 1:49 pm
It may come as a shock to the agws
————
It may come as a shock to naysayers that climatologists are well aware of the IWP since they invented the concept in the first place.
————
that we are at the very end of the 11,500 year Interglacial Warmup Period. All glaciers should be melting.
———–
Weird logic. If we have come to the end of the IWP then the glaciers should have stopped melting.
Until these folks tell me what the freeze line is for each mountain glacier or the elevation so I can figure the lapse rate to see if it even can melt from warming these articles make no sense.
Odd that there are only bad cliamte changes.
LazyTeenager says:
November 15, 2010 at 2:53 pm
“It may come as a shock to naysayers that climatologists are well aware of the IWP since they invented the concept in the first place.”
Like the MWP, right?