Guest post by Thomas Fuller
Before I start, I’d like to remind readers that as a guest poster, the opinions I voice here are not those of Anthony Watts, and should not be taken as having been endorsed by Watts Up With That.
I am going to propose an idea based on my position as a Lukewarmer regarding climate change. I fully expect to get a lot of criticism from commenters here, and I welcome it. My idea is new (at least to me), and if it is a good idea it will be sharpened by your criticism–and of course, if it is rubbish, best to know quickly, right?
I think the debate on climate change needs some new ideas and criticism too. So blast away–but please bring your A game. I neither need nor want to see the equivalent of ‘you suck, dude.’
Families, businesses and yes, even governments, need to make plans for the future. Those plans used to include assumptions about the physical environment, although most of those assumptions were passive acceptance of the status quo. However, it is now difficult to make assumptions because various theories of climate change and its effects have people wondering if their homes will be threatened by sea level rise, drought, hurricanes or floods.
Because of the competing number of possible futures (the IPCC has many scenarios and many more have been pulled from the science fiction rack and offered up to us), people are somewhat paralyzed by too many choices. I think it is time to recognize that all of use engaged in the debate about climate change are not doing the rest of the world any favors. We are making their life more difficult because they cannot make plans with any confidence.
If there is one dataset that I trust regarding the Earth’s climate, it is the measurement of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. It has been freely available for examination, it is replicated by measurements in more than one site, and in my mind survived criticism from people such as the late Ernst Beck. I trust the numbers.
The numbers show that concentrations of CO2 were 315 ppm in 1958, when Mauna Loa started measuring. Concentrations now are 390 ppm. That is a rise of 19%. The central question in climate change is, ‘What is the sensitivity of the earth’s atmosphere to a doubling of the concentrations of CO2?’ Is the atmosphere easily influenced by CO2, producing more water vapor and adding to temperature rise, or is the atmosphere largely indifferent? Despite protestations from both sides, the honest answer is we don’t know now, and we are not likely to know for another 30 years.
Temperatures appear to have risen globally, although the accuracy of the data is not yet fully determined. The rise since 1958 appears to be about 0.5 degrees Celsius.
If these were the only statistics available to us, we would quickly conclude that the sensitivity of the earth’s atmosphere to all human-related activities might well be 2.5 degrees Celsius. This would lead to the supposition that, if concentrations of CO2 rise to about 600 ppm, which certainly seems possible, that the Earth’s temperature will rise about another 2 degrees C. Since it’s based on measurement of temperatures, it can be presumed to include all the effects we are having on temperatures, not just CO2.
And I am arguing, no–proposing, that we do exactly that. Attempts to refine models and measurements have been unsuccessful and have served to heighten suspicion and muddy the debate. I have seen very credible arguments for sensitivities that are both higher and lower, but these arguments are based on data or models that have much higher levels of uncertainty associated with them, ranging from differing ways of measuring tropospheric temperatures to analysis of varves from Finnish lakes.
I don’t see undisputed data that will allow us to do better than the 40 years of good data we have now. So I think we should provide a ‘rough and ready’ estimate of 2 degrees C climate change this century to the public, business and politicians, so they can start making plans for the future.
It should obviously come with an asterisk and error bars, and should be presented as ‘crude, but the best we can really do at this time.’ Much like earlier and simpler climate models have often done better in handling projections of future climate, our rougher and cruder metrics may serve us better for now.
We need to stop throwing sci-fi fantasies out as plausible outcomes. We need to provide a range of outcomes based on measurements that we trust.
We also need not to be distracted by elements of the debate that have only served a political purpose. Current temperatures are not unprecedented. There was a MWP and a LIA. Sea level is rising at 3 mm per year. The ice caps are not going to disappear this millenium.
None of that really matters. Temperatures are rising, and more quickly than they have often in the past. (Yes, they have risen this quickly on occasion.) It is the speed of change and the numbers of people those changes will affect that are actually of more concern than the total temperature rise. The people in developing countries are actually more vulnerable than the last time there was a big quick rise–hunter gatherers didn’t have homes and could just move out of harm’s way, and they were few enough in number that they would not have been labeled ‘climate refugees.’
So, I call for all those involved in the climate debate to throw down their weapons, embrace this practical solution as being of use to the rest of the world, climb aboard the Peace Train and sing Kumbaya. Right.
No, have a look at this–tell me if it’s remotely possible that the skeptic community could sacrifice its current temporary, but very real advantage in the debate and agree that a rough metric that acknowledges warming but puts sane boundaries on it would be of use to the rest of the world.
Again, I’d like to thank readers who have made it this far for listening to a different side of the debate in a forum where you are more comfortable seeing the failings of your opponents exposed. If you find the gaping flaw in my logic, my idea can die quickly, if not quietly. If you see merit in my proposal, any indication of such would be warmly welcomed.
The Sourcewatch email could have been provided by either the sender or recipient, no?
Or even stolen. We’d better call the East Anglia police!
the gaping flaw is your acceptance of corrupt data and corrupt science… the lukewarm faith based system is the usual preserve of the scared witless and the confused thinker… based upon your previous postings you don’t appear to fall into either of these categories… so I can only guess at your motives for this posting.
Dave Wendt, I also think it would be difficult to do anything to stop the climate from doing more or less what it wants. But I think it would be useful in terms of planning to say ‘this is what we think may happen,’ again with appropriate caveats.
The central question in climate change is, ‘What is the sensitivity of the earth’s atmosphere to a doubling of the concentrations of CO2?’ Is the atmosphere easily influenced by CO2, producing more water vapor and adding to temperature rise, or is the atmosphere largely indifferent? Despite protestations from both sides, the honest answer is we don’t know now, and we are not likely to know for another 30 years.
Surely THE “central question” is “Is the Earth’s atmosphere senistive to a rise in CO2?” Q2 “How big does that rise have to be to have a noticeable effect over, say, a 30 year span?” Q3 “Is 30 years a menaingful period to consider any such effects?”
It seems to me that, at present, we DO NOT KNOW whether any observed rise in temperature is due AT ALL to any increase in CO2.
“No, have a look at this–tell me if it’s remotely possible that the skeptic community could sacrifice its current temporary, but very real advantage in the debate and agree that a rough metric that acknowledges warming but puts sane boundaries on it would be of use to the rest of the world.”
So, Tom, you would like for us to assume that your particular lukewarmer position is correct and act accordingly. That’s not going to happen because you are wrong.
“If you find the gaping flaw in my logic, my idea can die quickly, if not quietly.”
Your idea was dead before you posted this ridiculous article because you are assuming you are right in the first place. If this is your A game Tom, this is really pathetic.
(BTW I am really getting tired of seeing Fuller’s posts here. I can understand it is probably helping Anthony’s blog traffic, but if I wanted to read this drivel in the first place I would visit Fuller’s blog, which I don’t. What’s next? Romm and his spittle-flinging condemnations? I hope not.)
Very well written post Mr. thomaswfuller, I always enjoy reading the banter in the comments section after your guests posts. I have one question; are you talking about ‘Climate Change’ or ‘Global Warming’? I never see you use the term ‘Global Warming’. The two are very different.
This is your best sentence: “Despite protestations from both sides, the honest answer is we don’t know now, and we are not likely to know for another 30 years.” An even more honest answer is that we need to validate climate simulation models before we can decide. This can take another 300 years – if at all possible.
Anyone who claims to be able to predict the climate well enough to guide public policy is committing a fraud.
We need to be more humble and understand that we do not understand. A couple of decades with science and observations is insufficient and just a beginning.
This mental climate crisis may be an illusion that takes the attention away from real problems like the rainforest and the extinction of species. For every argument on one side of the climate debate, there is a good counter argument on the other side – when will we leave this redundant debate and refocus on the real world?
Nice try. I was almost sucked into this “it’s a debate”, “can’t we all just get along” approach.
Premise denied. It is most definitely NOT a debate, by any stretch. Science theory is only proven, not debated.
The warm-earthers (“lukewarm” is still warm) advanced an hypothesis that says that CO2 increases in the atmosphere produce unprecedented global warming and these CO2 increases are unprecedentedly man-made (or should I say “climate disruption” [LOL] now—which made up new terminology do you suggest we use this week?).
Prove the hypothesis. In any hypothesis, the burden of proof is upon the positer. In the case here, whereupon solutions to the [non] problem require Draconian remedies, the onus is much more severe to be placedupon the positer.
Burden of proof is in your court, to use a mixed metaphor.
You prove it, then I, as a scientist myself, will accept it or at least consider an alternative hypothesis. The proof is not forthcoming. Anything less is a charade.
“Temperatures are rising, and more quickly than they have often in the past.”
I am not sure that statement is valid or I am not sure of the scope of it.
To what extent have global temperatures risen since 1998?
As near as I can tell, they haven’t.
From where does one obtain “good data” with which one can make an accurate judgment of long term temperature changes? Where can I find reliable, long term data from a place where the station and/or surrounding land use has not changed significantly in the past 100 years or so?
We just don’t have the data to make a judgment and even the data we do have don’t show much change in the past 12 years.
And we need to look beyond temperatures. Earth has survived for practically its entire existence without any ice at the poles. Having ice at the poles is an anomaly, not the norm. We are currently in a fairly cold time over the history of the planet. And looking at a time when there was one huge equatorial supercontinent with no land mass to hold any ice at the poles, life apparently flourished.
Is a higher CO2 concentration a “hazard” in any way? Sure, it is “different” from what it is now, but is “different” bad in any way? If CO2 causes an increase in biomass production, doesn’t it follow that the more you put in, the faster it comes out? Considering that the rate of emissions is non-linear and the rate of CO2 increase is pretty close to linear, it would seem we would have empirical evidence of that.
Might the rise in temperatures from the 1800’s to the mid 20th century be attributed to recovery from the LIA? It was cold for several centuries during the LIA, the coldest the planet has seen in about 14,000 years. Might it take more than 150 years to recover from 400 years of cold? In particular I am thinking of temperatures of the abyssal deep. Setting aside for the moment the variations in salinity, it is much easier to cool the ocean from the top than it is to heat it. Trying to warm a column of water that is miles deep by applying heat to the surface is hard to do. Cooling such a column of water by removing heat from the surface is easier. At an intuitive level it would seem that the nature of water would make it such that might take longer than 400 years to replace heat that was lost over 400 years when it comes to the very deep ocean.
Earth has experienced much higher CO2 levels than today and life flourished. Earth has experienced much higher temperature levels than today and life flourished. There is no evidence that temperature change is in any way in step with CO2 level change. There is no evidence that current changes in CO2 are harmful in anyway. There is no evidence that the current warming has reached a higher level than other periods during the past 1000 years. There is no evidence that the current rate of warming is unusual in the current era. And I haven’t even begun to question the mentality that considers human actions “unnatural” as if we are like aliens deposited here from another planet or something which is a posting all on its own on the subject of cultural narcissism.
David Jones says:
October 20, 2010 at 3:07 pm
But, in accordance with my previous post, we DO KNOW for a fact that the premise is not proven, ergo, it is not true, from the scientific vantage point. Science is rigorous (at least it used to be), and the Science Beast demands proof positive, since a universal negative statement of any inverse cannot be proven. Again, the burden of proof…
Such a statement is reasonable. Can we then agree that the consequences of such a change is normal, tolerable and is neither controllable or assured?
“We also need not to be distracted by elements of the debate that have only served a political purpose.”
My investigation of this issue suggests it to be a political debate that occasionally involves honest science, usually involves agenda science and can never be trusted to provide a decent decision making platform. I don’t expect that to change.
2 degree rise in 100 years….. 600ppm c02……I’m a farmer in canada we could probably crop a couple extra million acres at a much higher level of productivity because of the extra heat units.Probably the same deal in northern europe and asia.The reality is this scenario could be a blessing in disguise for the planet. Lets not look a gift horse in the mouth.
Thomas…….in essance all your saying/requesting is that we ignore all the data supporting the skeptical view and roll over in the presence of a slightly watered down cAGW presentation.
Not going to happen. The only persuasive arguement is one that presents real science backed up by real data.
This must be the reason why WUWT is a success and has a better quality product …enjoy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6XAPnuFjJc
Al Gore believes that man’s continued output of Co2 will lead to a huge rise in sea levels. Yet within the past one and a half years he has purchased an $8 million villa NEAR the beach. Mr. Fuller, you are being gamed my friend. Get off the fence and do your trousers a favour :o)
Thomas, what you need to do is find some empirical evidence to support a climate sensitivity above about 1C. If you can’t then a more appropriate approximation for the warming of the next century is in fact about 1C assuming all other factors remain constant. This is consistant with the climate response to forcings since the beginning of the industrial era per Schwartz, Stephen E., Robert J. Charlson, Ralph A. Kahn, John A. Ogren, Henning Rodhe, 2010: Why Hasn’t Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?. J. Climate, 23, 2453–2464.
In order for there to be a higher climate sensitivity first one must explain the missing heat. The ARGO data contradicts the idea of a large energy imbalance per “Recent energy balance of Earth” R. S. Knox and D. H. Douglass International Journal of Geosciences, 2010, vol. 1, no. 3 (November).
The argument that the heat is there and we just can’t find it would be more convincing if a mechanism could be explained how it gets to the deep ocean without warming the surface layer but that is the argument presented despite this mechanism not being explained. Rising sea levels are given as evidence of this occuring. In order for sea level rise to be a convincing argument one must first know how fast they are rising. According to tide gauges the rate of sea level rise is not accelerating per “Reconstruction of regional mean sea level anomalies from tide gauges using neural networks” Manfred Wenzel, Jens Schröter JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 115.
Only if one compares GRACE measurements presently to previous tide gauge measurements can one find an acceleration. This is comparing apples to oranges since they measure sea level rise to two completely different reference points. Then there is the accuracy of the measurements to take into account. “Uncertainty in ocean mass trends from GRACE” Katherine J. Quinn, Rui M. Ponte Geophysical Journal International May 2010 casts doubts on the measurements.
Then there is the attribution of the sea level. Y. Wada, L.P.H. van Beek, C.M. van Kempen, J.W.T.M. Reckman, S. Vasak, and M.F.P. Bierkens (2010), “Global depletion of groundwater resources”, Geophysical Research Letters is an indication that the attribution was incomplete.
We all know about the problems with the lack of the troposphere behaving as modeled. In case you aren’t see “What Do Observational Datasets Say about Modeled Tropospheric Temperature Trends since 1979?” John R. Christy 1,*, Benjamin Herman 2, Roger Pielke, Sr. 3, Philip Klotzbach 4, Richard T. McNider 1, Justin J. Hnilo 1, Roy W. Spencer 1, Thomas Chase 3 and David Douglass Remote Sensing 2010, 2, 2148-2169;2148/p
Also the stratosphere doesn’t appear to be cooling as would be expected per “Ozone and temperature trends in the upper stratosphere at five stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change” W. Steinbrechta et al International Journal of Remote Sensing, Volume 30, Issue 15 & 16 2009
It appears to me that all you have to support a high climate sensitivity are short term trends and a lot of hypotheses which are not supported by empirical evidence. Can you provide empirical evidence which is clearly supportive of a high climate sensitivity? I would call anything above 1.5C a high climate sensitivity in this exercise.
600 ppm>>>>2,5ºC (start in 1958)
done deal
I’ll see
Thomas Fuller is totally wrong re C02 and warming. However you guys sound like the AGW crowd at its worse, leave him alone… he has in fact contributed vastly to the skeptical viewpoint through the examiner me thinks…
Here’s one bloody good reason not to get on your surrender train:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/8076822/Fury-over-1bn-green-stealth-tax-in-spending-review.html
And you can be sure that once you’re on the carriage they’ll make sure the doors are firmly locked on you.
David Jones says:
October 20, 2010 at 3:07 pm
“It seems to me that, at present, we DO NOT KNOW whether any observed rise in temperature is due AT ALL to any increase in CO2.”
Exactly. A negative feedback might completely compensate any effect caused by slightly increased LWIR scattering in the CO2 absorption band, while at the same time, changes in cloudiness could completely change the amount of visible light and UV that may heat up deeper ocean layers. I intentionally say scattering as it’s a process of absorption and re-emission. This whole talk of some mysthical 2 deg C warming is right out of the playbook of COP15 and it has no justification.
Each day more holes in the GCM’s are found, look over to the Air Vent. And it’ll take at least 20 years of progress in computer design IMHO until GCM’s are worth a second look, given the fact that they just don’t get better with slight decreases of the raster size.
The whole warming science should be completely ignored by all media until they can at least get the cloud distribution by latitude right in their models.
Hello Thomas Fuller, I do not propose to go over why I think you are wrong, others have done that already, but all steps to date by the AGW mob have been about trying to prevent warming, on the assumption it is man made, and assume the process will reverse, if mankind returns to a subsistence economy. IF we are to assume your proposition that temperatures will rise by 2.5 degrees, as a result of any cause what should we do?
Rising temps. So what big deal. As some land becomes useless for farming etc, other land will become good. Where is the problem?
Energy. No oil? So what, go nuclear.
Rising Sea levels. Where? Bangladesh? Improve coastal defences. Dredge rivers, use spoil to increase land level. Not enough material ok import sand from Saudi etc to raise land levels
Flooding. Where? Indian sub continent Pakistan this summer. Ok build dams in the headwaters. Use for hydro power, irrigation, and dredge the resulting lakes to use spoil to raise and fertlise other land areas
Flooding New Orleans. If you really thought it was more likely to happen again, why did you rebuild it in the same place?
Water shortages. Sunny areas. Use Solar panels to power desalination plants. Irrigate deserts, lots of food. Windy areas, use wind mills to power desalination plants. Wind and solar are so good (we are told) that this would be feasible.
Skin Cancers. Make more sun cream
Climate Disruption, storms etc. Do not build houses using trailer technology in areas prone to strong winds, flooding etc. The tornado belt in the USA has not figured this out yet. Greeks know that reinforced concrete is good construction in earthquake area. Planners in the UK keep allowing housing developments on arable land in the flood plain, so we reduce arable land, and see new houses being flooded by rivers. Doh!
If the AGW mob considered mitigation efforts, the problems could be solved without reducing the world to a peasant existence, but is there really a problem?
Thomas Fuller, I do not know if this is what you wanted, but there has been so little discussion of mitigation measures, that it is clear that the AGW mob have ulterior motives.
Much of the UK coastline is rising. Why, ice loss rebound? Some of the UK coastline is retreating. Why? It is called erosion. It is what nature does. Many places suffering from rising sea levels are not. It is erosion, but it makes another good AGW scare story
Whatever happens, too much money is being spent on useless research, which is corrupt ab initio, and no money is going in the direction of actually doing something. Who benefits, the AGW mob on their gravy train. It needs derailing now, in a crocodile infested swamp
Where is your evidence for this claim?????? Did you stand around with thermometer in hand everyday during the Holocene???? Come on my friend, you are making claims without justification.
John Kehr says:
October 20, 2010 at 12:35 pm
One problem I have always had is the aversion to nuclear power as a solution. People truly concerned with CO2 should be pushing the hardest for nuclear power to replace all fossil fuel power plants.
Planning for the future will involve nuclear power. Get the warmists on board with nuclear instead of wasting time with the expensive and low energy “green” options.
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Thomas, Good article, but I cannot agree with you. However I do feel there is a solution that won’t pit most skeptic;s like me against a Lukewarmer’s such as yourself.
My solution is something that we should be doing anyway and will not involve stick tax and spend fingers of governments or the UN crowd.
It will keep or reduce electric prices at 5 to 7 cents /kw hour and most importantly be affordable in industrial and developing country’s. This will do more to lift the grinding poverty in the 3rd world and allow people to start prospering, become better educated which starts a cycle of reducing population sizes similar to the western nations.
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John Kerr.
I have been following the nuclear power issue for some time and feel we are rapidly approaching some sensible solutions that will satisfy most peoples concerns about nuclear safety.
Problems with Nuclear
1- Disposal of the spent fuel and storage dilemma.
2 – Possible weaponizing the uranium-bearing elements of the spent fuel.
3 – The prohibitive cost and the time frame of building new nuclear power stations.
4 – The huge land space of the average present day nuclear power station.
5 – Transmission lines and infrastructure running for 1000’s of miles, which can double the cost of electric power and take up 1000’s of sq miles of valuable land.
These are all valid concerns but I feel we have turned the corner and can now address them all safely. But we need to over come the fears of the old generation 1 and 2 nuclear power stations and look at the advancements that the new generation 3 and 4 nuclear power station’s can bring to the table.
Something not done presently in the USA is reprocessing the spent fuel so it can be used again and again. Also using a process called de-clawing both commercial spent fuel and old outdated military nuclear weapons, this removes the ability to weponizing the uranium in the future.
This fuel is then only good for peaceful purposes by repossessing into usable fuel rods for use in commercial nuclear power generation plants only.
There are enough stockpiles of these weapons and spent nuclear fuel rods dumps stored around the world to supply power for 100’s of years without additional uranium mining.
But even better and more exciting are the development of small assembly line nuclear power generation plants, which are compact to the size of a shipping container and can produce power and heating for 20.000 average American homes, industry or any isolated industry such as mining camps or towns. They are localized reducing the need for expensive and long transmission lines. They are inexpensive relative to most other power generating sources. They are quickly installed in safe under ground locations. They can be piggy backed to virtually any power size requirement.
They can be a reasonable priced upgrade to existing coal or gas fire stations as the primary energy source, allowing the turbines and none polluting mechanical infrastructure to still be used.
They are hermetical sealed with a life span of 8 to10 year and can be removed and replaced by a refurbished unit in a very short space of time. The spent fuel from this them is very small the size of a baseball and has a very small decay life of approximately 200 years – NOT 100.000 of years. And NO CO2 of green house gases is produced!
What’s not to like about this power source that can change the lives of people the world over with cheap abundant safe electricity and heating it’s a technology that could still be used for the next 1000 + years.
See for yourself:
Hyperion Power Generation Inc. is a privately held company formed to commercialize a small modular nuclear reactor designed by Los Alamos National Laboratory
http://www.hyperionpowergeneration.com/
or:
There are ongoing development programs in the USA and Asia.
Miniature nuclear reactors might be a safe, efficient source of power
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/13/AR2010091304026.html?hpid=moreheadlines
Tom Fuller, please answer THE ABOVE queston. No sitting on the fence here. Answer the question please. Most of us here want to know.