From the press package:
The findings confirm that carbon dioxide is the most potent greenhouse “control knob”
This seems like a last ditch effort (in the face of falling public opinion) from Gavin Schmidt et al. to make CO2 more important than water vapor in regulating the temperature of the planet.
Via emailed press package, embargoed until 2PM EST 10/14/2010:
Of all the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide exerts the most control on Earth’s climate, researchers report. Although carbon dioxide’s greenhouse effect has been known for more than 100 years, its primary role in climate warming is still not universally acknowledged.
For example, water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas and is more abundant in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide. But, it condenses and precipitates from the atmosphere and thus plays a different role than carbon dioxide and other, noncondensing greenhouse gases, such as ozone, methane and chlorofluorocarbons. Andrew Lacis and colleagues conducted a set of idealized climate model experiments in which various greenhouse gases were added to or subtracted from the atmosphere, in order to illustrate their roles in controlling the temperature of the air.
The findings confirm that carbon dioxide is the most potent greenhouse “control knob” and that its abundance determines how much water vapor the atmosphere contains. Without carbon dioxide, the Earth would plunge into a frozen state, the researchers report, though they caution that increasing levels of this atmospheric gas are also worrisome. “This makes the reduction and control of atmospheric CO2 a serious and pressing issue, worthy of real-time attention,” they write.
[Seems a bit out of balance though.]
- Fig. 1. Attribution of the contributions of individual atmospheric components to the total terrestrial greenhouse effect, separated into feedback and forcing categories. Horizontal dotted and dashed lines depict the fractional response for single-addition and single-subtraction of individual gases to an empty or full-component reference atmosphere, respectively. Horizontal solid black lines are the scaled averages of the dashedand dotted-line fractional response results. The sum of the fractional responses adds up to the total greenhouse effect. The reference atmosphere is for conditions in 1980.
Article #14: “Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth’s Temperature,” by A.A. Lacis; G.A. Schmidt; D. Rind; R.A. Ruedy at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, NY.
Contact: Andrew A. Lacis at alacis@giss.nasa.gov (email).
Here’s the paper: lacis101015 (PDF)
Just issued a challenge to Dr. Svalgaard on this one
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-NAP.htm
you can see it here
I sometimes wonder why empirical evidence is not being obtained to support man made climate disruption warming change along the lines of creating artificial atmospheres that match Earth’s in sealed units with different concentrations of CO2 but other variables constant, expose them to a regulated light source and demonstrate that the extra CO2 results in a warmer temperature. To properly quantify the initial CO2 warming before you start arm waving about feedbacks.
Can’t be that difficult surely, and we know science funding authorities love to throw money at man made climate disruption warming change projects. Perhaps someone at the APS would be willing to give it a go.
John Towers asks:
“If CO2 is the control for atmospheric tempurature then can someone please explain how during the Ordovician period of earths history we had an estimated 4400 PPM of co2 in the air and still had an ice age?”
Sure!
The layout of the continents was very different then- most of the earths land mass was centered around the south pole. In that situation, it’s very easy for glaciers to form and grow, and the ice albedo feedback (positive) causes additional cooling, leading to an ice age.
Billy Liar says: “This just in!… Massive CO2 hole found over the Arctic.”
Thanks. I hadn’t seen that graphic before.
“The findings confirm that carbon dioxide is the most potent greenhouse “control knob””
CO2 is to control knob.
As
Darrell Issa is to off switch.
From the paper,
…and now for the million dollar question, what are clouds made of?
I think There is an error in the your line from the press package!
**The findings confirm that carbon dioxide is the most potent greenhouse “control knob”**
Surely it should read:
**The fundings confirm that carbon dioxide is the most potent greenhouse “control knob”**
Gavin Schmidt. You don’t need to read the paper, if he is involved its all from models amd and the outcomes are fiddled to match his views.
Not enough knob jokes. I’m disappointed.
Someone should forward that suit101 article the APS.
“climate model experiments”
WYSIWYG – What you seek is what you get
Please put a ‘to’ infront of ‘the’ in my comment above. Sorry left side stroke.
When will they get it…that you can’t predict anything via modeling alone. You have to check and adjust the model against real measurements, something that no one in Climate Science knows how to do.
“Without carbon dioxide, the Earth would plunge into a frozen state”
????
Back in my 1st year of university (Physics) we took a class on how to (and the importance of) readily determine whether the answers one has derived from one’s experiments are reasonable or whether one messed up somewhere.
Apparently that class is optional now.
Using a model to “experiment”?
phfttt!
I see I’m not the only one who gave up reading after that. My hat is off to those who went and read the paper anyway. Ya’ll are real troopers.
Got an idea for a better lab for those GISS scientists!
The Chilean Government, after rescuing the 33 miners from half a mile below ground is seeking for a different use of the mine. That’s an opportunity NASA must not lose.
For example, water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas and is more abundant in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide. But, it condenses and precipitates from the atmosphere
Yes it does doesn’t it. So carbon dioxide does not control humidity.
vukcevic says:
October 14, 2010 at 1:13 pm
The “Turn of the screw” is here. In Greek it was called “An Apocalypse (Greek: Ἀποκάλυψις Apokálypsis ; “lifting of the veil” or “revelation”) is a disclosure of something hidden from the majority of mankind in an era dominated by falsehood and misconception, i.e. the veil to be lifted”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apocalypse
Since they fail not to still call it a green house gas for the supposedly green house effect but haven’t they heard of practical observations?
Ingredients:
1 Sizable green house
2 equalize sizable green house to surrounding climate
3 shut all doors
4 Measure temperature from 24 to, you guess it, 24.
5 equalize it again
6 shut all doors
7 pump the room with surrounding temperature warm only CO2 to twice the surrounding levels
8 See four (but don’t go boom just yet)
9 Do 5 and 6 again
10 See 7 but use water vapor instead
11 See 4 again (Now if you’re a rational person nothing’ll happen I’m sure, however for the irrational person, well, for some odd reason See 4 just acts as a detonator for a major psychological implosion.)
Anyways the real world is kinda funny that it always has that meltdown effect on the funny people.
So, CO2 is exactly what the politicians dream off?
A Control Knob ?
How convenient!
hahahahaha!!!!!!
I called GISS today!
Forest Gump is Vice president on thier climate research!
Redefining water vapor to not be a ghg seems to be a bit insulting to intelligence.
Bob Tisdale says:
October 14, 2010 at 1:40 pm
The best ones were taken early. I think they’re all bloody knobs.
Anyone suggesting experiments with varying atmospheres in whatever containers. That is the mistake made by the followers of Arrhenius.
DaveE.
Bob Tisdale says:
October 14, 2010 at 1:40 pm
Not enough knob jokes. I’m disappointed.
Don’t blame me, I did my bit.
When is all this warming supposed to start?
Are these computer models the same super accurate ones that even verify each other and so accurately predicted the 2009 barbecue summer and mild winter 2009/10 in the UK?