We’ve already told you that the Russian heatwave had everything to do with weather, and not climate. NOAA agrees:
NOAA on the Russian heat wave: blocking high, not global warming
At least NASA Goddard agrees with this, sort of. – Anthony
An unparalleled heat wave in eastern Europe, coupled with intense droughts and fires around Moscow, put Earth’s temperatures in the headlines this summer. Likewise, a string of exceptionally warm days in July in the eastern United States strained power grids, forced nursing home evacuations, and slowed transit systems. Both high-profile events reinvigorated questions about humanity’s role in climate change.
But, from a global perspective, how warm was the summer exactly? How did the summer’s temperatures compare with previous years? And was global warming the “cause” of the unusual heat waves? Scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City, led by GISS’s director, James Hansen, have analyzed summer temperatures and released an update on the GISS website that addresses all of these questions.
This map, based on land surface temperatures observed by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite, shows temperature anomalies for the Russian Federation from July 20–27, 2010, compared to temperatures for the same dates from 2000 to 2008. For more information about this image, please visit NASA’s Earth Observatory. Credit: NASA/Goddard/Earth Observatory
Globally, June through August, according to the GISS analysis, was the fourth-warmest summer period in GISS’s 131-year-temperature record. The same months during 2009, in contrast, were the second warmest on record. The slightly cooler 2010 summer temperatures were primarily the result of a moderate La Niña (cooler than normal temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean) replacing a moderate El Niño (warmer than normal temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean).
As part of their analysis, Hansen and colleagues released a series of graphs that help explain why perceptions of global temperatures vary — often erroneously — from season to season and year to year. For example, unusually warm summer temperatures in the United States and eastern Europe created the impression of global warming run amuck in those regions this summer, while last winter’s unusually cool temperatures created the opposite impression. A more global view, as shown below for 2009 and 2010, makes clear that extrapolating global trends based on the experience of one or two regions can be misleading.
The four graphs show seasonal-mean temperature anomalies relative to 1951-1980 for the most recent two summers and winters; that is, they show how temperatures during the various seasons differ from the mean temperatures from 1951-1980, which serves as a reference period. Unusually warm summers in eastern Europe and much of the United States created the impression of record global temperatures this summer (lower right), while unseasonably cool winters in the same regions had the opposite effect during winter of 2010 (lower left). For more information about this image, please visit the GISS website. Credit: NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies/Hansen
“Unfortunately, it is common for the public to take the most recent local seasonal temperature anomaly as indicative of long-term climate trends,” Hansen notes. “[We hope] these global temperature anomaly maps may help people understand that the temperature anomaly in one place in one season has limited relevance to global trends.”
Last winter, for example, unusually cool temperatures in much of the United States caused many Americans to wonder why temperatures seemed to be plummeting, and whether the Earth could actually be experiencing global warming in the face of such frigid temperatures. A more global view, seen in the lower left of the four graphs above, shows that global warming trends had hardly abated. In fact, despite the cool temperatures in the United States, last winter was the second-warmest on record.
Though calendar year 2010 may or may not turn out to be the warmest on record, the warmest 12-month period in the GISS analysis was reached in mid-2010. The lower portion of the graph shows when major volcanic eruptions have occurred with green triangles. The lowest part shows El Niño (red) and La Niña (blue) trends. For more information about this graph, please visit the GISS website Credit: NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies/Hansen
This map shows temperature anomalies relative to 1951-1980 for the summer of 2010; that is, how temperatures in June through August 2010 differed from the mean temperatures from 1951-1980. A NASA visualizer created it based on data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. For more information about this image, visit the Earth Observatory site. Credit: NASA/Goddard/Earth Observatory
Meanwhile, the global seasonal temperatures for the spring of 2010 — March, April, and May — was the warmest on GISS’s record. Does that mean that 2010 will shape up to be the warmest on record? Since the warmest year on GISS’s record — 2005 — experienced especially high temperatures during the last four calendar months of the year, it’s not yet clear how 2010 will stack up.
“It is likely that the 2005 or 2010 calendar year means will turn out to be sufficiently close that it will be difficult to say which year was warmer, and results of our analysis may differ from those of other groups,” Hansen notes. “What is clear, though, is that the warmest 12-month period in the GISS analysis was reached in mid-2010.”
The Russian heat wave was highly unusual. Its intensity exceeded anything scientists have seen in the temperature record since widespread global temperature measurements became available in the 1880s. Indeed, a leading Russian meteorologist asserted that the country had not experienced such an intense heat wave in the last 1,000 years. And a prominent meteorologist with Weather Underground estimated such an event may occur as infrequently as once every 15,000 years.
In the face of such a rare event, there’s much debate and discussion about whether global warming can “cause” such extreme weather events. The answer — both no and yes — is not a simple one.
Weather in a given region occurs in such a complex and unstable environment, driven by such a multitude of factors, that no single weather event can be pinned solely on climate change. In that sense, it’s correct to say that the Moscow heat wave was not caused by climate change.
However, if one frames the question slightly differently: “Would an event like the Moscow heat wave have occurred if carbon dioxide levels had remained at pre-industrial levels,” the answer, Hansen asserts, is clear: “Almost certainly not.”
The frequency of extreme warm anomalies increases disproportionately as global temperature rises. “Were global temperature not increasing, the chance of an extreme heat wave such as the one Moscow experienced, though not impossible, would be small,” Hansen says.
For GISS’s full analysis, please visit:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
@AUssieDan
>>But it was very worring and we all blamed it all on THE BOMB.
Hah! Thanks for the reminder! When I was little (ie. in the ’60’s) we used to notice the same things, except we blamed them on the Soviets and their weather modification experiments beaming some kind of weather ray at us to mess things up and make our lives miserable (usually too hot).
Hansen’s & GISS’s credibility have slipped so much since the Climategate fiasco that what would have been taken in stride a few years ago is looked up as having an ulterior motive, the great “Climate Capitalism Ponzi Scheme”. Today I find I cannot look upon this material and think of it as the scientific truth of the matter. Hansen has had control of GISS for far too long, and GISS has become just another kind of EAU Con Job.
Now when I look at GISS data I ask: why use the 1951-1980 reference period; why x, y, and z; and, how did GISS fill in all the missing data for the Arctic and Antarctic, Canada, Russia, etc. for the past 131 years, the same way they do it today? Nope! No Confidence! It may all boil down to what I think of Hansen today. But, even if he were to depart this afternoon, it would probably take a few tens of years to bring back that old sense of blind faith in a US Government, NASA, Scientific operation such as GISS, maybe. Climategate sure changed the way folks think about climate and the folks trying to sell it like a pig in a poke.
HOW CLIMATE IS CHANGING ?
Massive Arctic ice island drifting toward shipping lanes The biggest Arctic “ice island” to form in
nearly 50 years — a 250-square-kilometer behemoth described as four times the size of Manhattan —
has been discovered after a Canadian scientist scanning satellite images of northwest Greenland spotted
a giant break in the famed Petermann Glacier.Canada.com – Aug 07 10:16am
In another research, using Autosub, an autonomous underwater vehicle, researchers led by the British Antarctic
Survey have captured ocean and sea-floor measurements, which revealed a 300 meter high
ridge on the sea floor. Pine Island Glacier was once sitting atop this underwater ridge,
which slowed its flow into the sea. The warm water, trapped under the ice, is causing the
bottom of the ice shelf to thaw, resulting in continuousthinning and acceleration of glacial
melt. Lead author Adrian Jenkins said, “The discovery of the ridge has raised new questions
about whether the current loss of ice from Pine Island Glacier is caused by recent climate
change or is a continution of a longer-term process that began when the glacier disconnect
from the ridge”. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/06/100620200810.htm
Not only warm water, but also concentrated Magnesium Chloride =7,100 p.p.m & Sodium
Chloride= 31,000 p.p.m. (de-icing agents) trapped under the ice, is causing the bottom of the
ice shelf to thaw, resulting in continuous thinning and acceleration of glacial melt
(under water glacier cutting).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fGHlEBvKYw&sns=fb
Last Winter, Australian Glaciologist, Neal Young, declared that more than 300 icebergs are
floating in the East Antarctica.
DISINTEGRATED ICE SHELVES DISINTEGRATION DATES
Worde Ice shelf March 1986
Larsen A Ice shelf January 1995
Larsen B Ice shelf February 2002
Jones Ice Shelf 2008
Wilkins Ice shelf March 2008
If the Ice shelves are disintegrating during WINTER, it is not SUN or CO2.
U.N. Secretary General, BAN KI-MOON recently declared that ” Let me be clear, the thread of
Climate Change is real “.
“The Climate is changing” said JAY LAWRIMORE, Chief of Climate Analysing at the National
Climate Data Center in Asheville, N.C. “Extreme events are occuring with greater frequency and
in many cases with greater intensity”.
The current Climate Change is due to the following:-
1. Mushrooming of Sea water desalination systems in the Middle East: Discharging of desalination
& Cleaning chemicals & Concentrated brine into Oceans & Seas.
2. Artificial Island developments in the Arabian Gulf since 1985: dredging, drilling, dynamiting &
excavation of sea floor shifted Magnesium Chloride, Sulfur & Sodium Chloride.
The geographic position of the Arabian Gulf, Ocean circulations bringing it to Arctic & Antarctic Oceans
during Monsoon seasons along with hot water of the Middle East.
Those who are having the Oceans water Analysis since 1980 will WIN the Climate WAR. Concentrated
7,100 p.p.m. of Magnesium Chloride & 31,000 p.p.m. of Sodium Chloride are detected in the Arabian Gulf.
These are De-icing agents which are helping to disintegrates the Arctic & Antarctic Ice shelves. Now
International Desalination Association (IDA) formed a committee to investigate about it.
If we enforce strict Environmental regulations, recover MgCl3 and NaCl3 at Straight of Hormosa and
Straight of Gibraltar and recover those at closed eddies of Baffin Bay & Green Land Sea. Sea ice & Ice
shelfs in Arctic & Antarctic are Natural Air Conditioners of the Planet EARTH. When more ice in both
Poles, the third Pole, as Scientists described, Himalayas will have abundance of ice and Snow & Bolivi
will have more Glaciers & water.
Book releasing soon in USA ” Environmental Rapes & H. R. abuses Lead to Climate Change Control”.
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In the 1960s–1970s there were magazine articles floating the idea of towing icebergs from the Arctic to places like Los Angeles to harvest for fresh water supplies. Killing two birds with one stone, they wanted to deflect an oncoming return to an ice age climate and supply freshwater to the arid communities of the American Southwest.
@ur momisugly JPeden 6:01 AM Oct 3
Hansen isn’t saying that the Moscow heat wave is evidence of climate change due to CO2. He’s saying something that sounds like he’s saying that it’s evidence of climate change due to CO2.
The “prominent meteorologist” with Weather Underground should be fired, or ridiculed.
REPLY: I strongly disagree. He may be unaware of the issue, since he covers thousands of stations with automation. And, it works correctly some of the time. I’ve dropped him and email earlier today. Let’s see what he has to say. – Anthony
Actually, at one point just a bit ago on his blog, the “prominent meteorologist” at WU declared, “The period January – July was the warmest such 7-month period in the planet’s history…”
I will admit to having made sport of that on our blog ~ T-Rex picture and all, even though I know he means well. It was just too much.
(And Juraj, he can’t be “fired”, because WU is HIS.)
Ausi Dan says: “I can’t remember if it was too hot or too cold or too wet or too dry.
But it was very worring and we all blamed it all on THE BOMB.
Or more correcly on atomic bomb testing in the Pacific.”
Yes. During the late sixties and early seventies my Grandmother used to blame storms and weather on the space program. “They’re shooting those rockets up there and messing up the weather! We didn’t have weather like this before!”
Even as a teenager, I found her assertions, uh, unconvincing.
By the way, my Grandmother was a very nice lady, but she was agood example of how someone can get stuck in a mental belief system. She never accepted that people went to the moon.
Grandmother: “Jason, you KNOW they didn’t go to the moon!”
Me: “Why do you not think they didn’t go there?”
Grandmother: “Because NO ONE can GO to the MOON!”
Of course, these days, it’s more like:
CAGW: “You KNOW that the Moscow heat wave was due to Global Warming!”
Me: “Why do you think that?”
CAGW: “Because THAT’S what GLOBAL WARMING DOES!”
Oh! Speaking of how my Grandmother blamed bad weather on the space program…
One of my recurring guilty joys took place after the end of the Apollo program. Every time we had bad weather, I would announce to her, “I can’t believe how bad the weather is! Ever since we stopped going to the moon the weather has been messed up!”
“Were global temperature not increasing, the chance of an extreme heat wave such as the one Moscow experienced, though not impossible, would be small,” Hansen says.
Well. We have 130 years of decent, if not well distributed and if not needing a lot of massagings, temperature data. Historically Russia has had a number of terribly hot summers and raging fires as a consequence. So have other places. For Hansen to say this based on data, the event must be without equal or even near equal. Hell, not even half-equal. Doesn’t seem to be a statement based on data. You don’t need to be a Phdk kor statistician to see that. But I bet if you prefer your models to data, you could say that.
Perhaps we should call the IPCC/NASA climate models “Elmo”, after the cute Sesame Street character. When we were children, whatever Elmo said was true and in our best interest. We didn’t question Elmo. Elmo the Computer (Program). Of course, that would suggest James Hansen as Burt. He was the authoritative ‘adult’ and worried all the time, too.
Elmo and Burt: Saving Our Planet One Alarm at a Time!
Jason Calley says:
October 4, 2010 at 7:08 am
Ausi Dan says: “I can’t remember if it was too hot or too cold or too wet or too dry.
But it was very worring and we all blamed it all on THE BOMB.
Or more correcly on atomic bomb testing in the Pacific.”
Yes. During the late sixties and early seventies my Grandmother used to blame storms and weather on the space program. “They’re shooting those rockets up there and messing up the weather! We didn’t have weather like this before!”
Your grandmother notwithstanding I’ve yet to see a convincing explanation of why the atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons after WWII could not have injected enough particulates into the stratosphere to have caused some global cooling.
tree hugging sister says:
October 4, 2010 at 6:17 am
Actually, at one point just a bit ago on his blog, the “prominent meteorologist” at WU declared, “The period January – July was the warmest such 7-month period in the planet’s history…”
Although of course if you use the definition of ‘history’ as implying a written record (hence ‘prehistory’) then it’s not so crazy.
You can attempt to twist it with either definition, and it is still an absurd and outrageous falsehood.
Yeah, like the incineration of the cities and villages, the dust clouds from the Battle of Kursk, and oil tanker sinkings and fires had nothing significant to do with it, just the nuclear weapons tests? You wouldn’t by any chance be displaying a myopic political bias and promotion of a particular worldview and political agenda, would you?
What goes up must come down!
– – – – – – – –
Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.
http://rt.com/prime-time/2010-10-04/coldest-winter-emergency-measures.html