via Physorg.com with h/t to Dr. Leif Svalgaard and Indur Goklany
The Northern Lights have petered out during the second half of this decade, becoming rarer than at any other time in more than a century, the Finnish Meteorological Institute said Tuesday.
The Northern Lights, or aurora borealis, generally follow an 11-year “solar cycle”, in which the frequency of the phenomena rises to a maximum and then tapers off into a minimum and then repeats the cycle.
“The solar minimum was officially in 2008, but this minimum has been going on and on and on,” researcher Noora Partamies told AFP.
“Only in the past half a year have we seen more activity, but we don’t really know whether we’re coming out of this minimum,” she added.
The Northern Lights, a blaze of coloured patterns in the northern skies, are triggered by solar winds crashing into the earth and being drawn to the magnetic poles, wreaking havoc on electrons in the parts of the atmosphere known as the ionosphere and magnetosphere.
So a dimming of the Northern Lights is a signal that activity on the sun which causes solar winds, such as solar flares and sun sports, is also quieting down.
Full story at Physorg.com
A solar minimum, according to some, would herald a period of global cooling. Has this natural event been overtaken by CAGW?
REPLY: Has the patience of AGW proponents been overtaken? Sun-Earth systems often respond on timescales longer than the human experience. Stop watching CNN and watch the skies instead, you’ll get a better appreciation for time -Anthony
I kept telling my wife that the chances we would see a good Aurora in NE Oregon were good. Nothing yet, but hopefully we can get a fair CME .She’s spent time in the Yukon,
during the summer but has never seen a Aurora display. I’ve been on top of the Wallowa
mountains back in the 70’s amid a huge display. Amazing…
Solar minimum? Does this mean that in the following years it is going to get very very cold?
As was pointed out by a wit elsewhere, this is all down to these wind farms as the giant fans keep blowing the solar wind off course…
Leif Svalgaard says September 29, 2010 at 6:22 am
http://hirweb.nict.go.jp/sedoss/solact3
Leif, what does the B indicator signify and “NEGATIVE BAY” term at http://hirweb.nict.go.jp/dimages/magneka/20100928.html mean? Is it just highlighting the Bz swing or is there more to it?
An interesting page at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurora_(astronomy), particularly the Frequency of Occurrence section. Anything you’d take issue with or augment here?
Leif
Thanks for response and links above.
Tried to ask a question also, but didn’t do very well I guess.
If you have a second, which graph/link best captures and shows the variation of solar activity that we see reflected via the aurora?
For Example: How close does anyone of the graphs on your website at do this?
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
If none, where might there be a long term graph of this variation displayed in the aurora? (If one exists.)
Thanks again.
Well I think the Headline is biassed and unfair. It should say something like this:-
“”” Aurora Borealis hits a 100-year low point – sun NOT blamed. “””
After all; is not the lack of the Aurora due to the fact that the sun is NOT doing anything ?
Must be tough being a star; you are damned if you do, and damned if you don’t !
I don’t think I have ever seen an Aurora; either Borealis, or Australis. Come to think of it, I don’t think I have ever seen a picture of an Aurora; well unless that purple thing above is one. I thought they were supposed to be green, and also move around. So I’ve never seen any real movie footage or video that was claimed to be an actual Aurora; rather than some hollyweird construction.
Hello Leif,
Slightly off topic but I read that during the recent period of active sun the mesosphere was cooling.
So at that time we had a warming troposphere and thermosphere but a cooling stratosphere and mesosphere.
But I seem to recall that you said that all the layers of the atmosphere warm or cool in tandem depending on whether the sun is active or inactive.
Please could you clarify ?
Winter of 2001/2 I saw quite distinct aurorae in Colorado – at just BELOW 40 degrees latitude.
Jabba the Cat says:
September 29, 2010 at 7:43 am
Don Antonio, The Quixote of WUWT will fix it!
What if Jupiter is to blame, by interfering in Apolo’s businesses?
Anthony, as an “AGW proponent” ( actually, I would say I recognize humans are causing global warming by CO2 emissions, and Bush and Luntz can keep the term THEY pushed, Climate Change, I’m sticking with global warming) I want to know what evidence do you cite to substantiate your assertion regarding the Sun-Earth system? If , as frequently asserted, the proven rising global temperature is caused by the sun (Skeptical Science has that argument listed as the most frequent used by deniers), and solar activity has been freakishly low since falling from 2003 to the Minimum, not much changed since 2008, why is 2010 the hottest year recorded ever, in the hottest decade ever, with the least volume of Arctic ice ever? Are you making a prediction that can be tested, the way Dr. Hansen made a prediction in 1988, that was proven quite right? Just when can we expect to see it cooler?
It’s Bush’s Fault!
I’ll bet the left will blame Bush for this too. 😉
Enneagram says: September 29, 2010 at 7:18 am
vukcevic That graph is a Sun’s electrocardiogram: It’s in the ER!
Task of an able mind is to observe, to record, to understand.
The whole of science is nothing more than the refinement of everyday thinking. A. E.
Ennea see also this
George E. Smith says:
September 29, 2010 at 8:25 am
So I’ve never seen any real movie footage or video that was claimed to be an actual Aurora; rather than some hollyweird construction.
There are some here:
Very funny, Kwik!:]
Thanks for the laugh!
That was no good it did not give a link.
Just type aurora borealis youtube in google
Dave Springer says:
September 29, 2010 at 3:56 am
Global Borealis Disruption evidently
Yes but you forgot the CA ; CAGBD
Roaring Borealis…
jus sayin…
Clearly the long-feared “CO2 tipping point” has arrived and knocked off the northern lights as an early victim.
Thanes says:
September 29, 2010 at 9:12 am
“Bush and Luntz can keep the term THEY pushed, Climate Change”
http://www.ipccfacts.org/history.html
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by two United Nations Organizations, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to assess “the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change.” Review by experts and governments is an essential part of the IPCC process. For its first task, the IPCC was asked to prepare, based on available scientific information, a report on all aspects relevant to climate change and its impacts and to formulate realistic response strategies.”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established in 1988 – Seems the United Nations pushed THAT term first.
Some people make part of their living from the Northern Lights Tourism
http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1275525/canada_towns_economy_boosted_by_northern_lights_tourism/
Has the patience of AGW proponents been overtaken? Sun-Earth systems often respond on timescales longer than the human experience. Stop watching CNN and watch the skies instead, you’ll get a better appreciation for time -Anthony
GeoFlynx – Are you implying that the solar minimum’s effect on global temperatures will not manifest itself for another 70 years. Trolls don’t live that long!
RW says:
September 29, 2010 at 6:09 am
> Mike Haseler – you’ll never see aurorae through a telescope.
I’m sure he knows that. My guess is that you don’t have a telescope.
Mike has a telescope. Mike uses telescope to look at stars (and planets, nebulae, etc). Therefore Mike is often outside on cloudless nights. Amateur astronomers do not spend all night looking through an eyepiece, we often just look up at constellations and the Milky Way and Andromeda (if the sky is really dark) and some nebulae. Mike has seen aurora from Scotland, but hasn’t seen them after moving there. Therefore Mike has not been using his telescope to see the aurora, he just hasn’t been out on the right nights lately. If Mike wants to see aurora during SC24, he better start checking spaceweather.com, there may not be much to see in SC25!