
Guest Post by Tom Vonk
In a recent post I considered the question in the title. You may see it here : http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/05/co2-heats-the-atmosphere-a-counter-view/
The post generated great deal of interest and many comments.
Even if most of the posters understood the argument and I answered the comments of those who did not, I have been asked to sum up the discussion.
Before starting, I will repeat the statement that I wished to examine.
“Given a gas mixture of CO₂ and N₂ in Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE) and submitted to infrared radiation, does the CO₂ heat the N₂?”
To begin, we must be really sure that we understood not only what is contained in the question but especially what is NOT contained in it.
- The question contains no assumption about the radiation. Most importantly there is no assumption whether a radiative equilibrium does or does not exist. Therefore the answer will be independent from assumptions concerning radiative equilibrium. Similarly all questions and developments concerning radiative transfer are irrelevant to the question.
- The question contains no assumption about the size or the geometry of the mixture. It may be a cube with a volume of 1 mm³ or a column of 10 km height. As long as the mixture is in LTE, any size and any geometry works.
- The question contains no assumption about boundary conditions. Such assumptions would indeed be necessary if we asked much more ambitious questions like what happens at boundaries where no LTE exists and which may be constituted of solids or liquids. However we do not ask such ambitious questions.
Also it is necessary to be perfectly clear about what “X heats Y” means.
It means that there exists a mechanism transferring net (e.g non zero) energy unidirectionaly
from X to Y .
Perhaps as importantly, and some posters did not understand this point, the statement
“X heats Y” is equivalent to the statement “Y cannot cool X”.
The critical posts – and here we exclude posts developing questions of radiative transfer which are irrelevant as explained in 1) above – were of 2 types.
Type 1
The argument says “LTE never exists or alternatively LTE does not apply to a mixture of CO₂ and N₂.”
The answer to the first variant is that LTE exists and I repeat the definition from the original post : “A volume of gas is in LTE if for every point of this volume there exists a neighborhood in which the gas is in thermodynamic equilibrium (TE)”
2 remarks to this definition:
- It is not said and it is not important how large this neighborhood of every point is. It may be a cube of 1 mm³ or a cube of 10 m³ . The important part is that this neighborhood exists (almost) everywhere.
- LTE is necessary to define local temperature. Saying that LTE never exists is equivalent to saying that local temperatures never exist.
The second variant admits that LTE exists but suggests that a mixture of CO₂ and N₂ cannot be in LTE.
The LTE conditions are given when energy at every point is efficiently spread out among all available degrees of freedom (translation, rotation, vibration).
The most efficient tool for energy spreading are molecular collisions.
Without going in a mathematical development (see statistical thermodynamics for those interested), it is obvious that LTE will exist when there are many molecular collisions per volume unit.
This depends mostly on density – high density gases will be often in LTE while very low density gases will not.
For those not yet convinced, hold out a thermometer in your bedroom and it is probable that it will show a well defined temperature everywhere – your bedroom is in LTE .
We deal here with a mixture of CO₂ and N₂ in conditions of the troposphere which are precisely conditions where LTE exists too.
Type 2
The argument says “The mean time between collisions is much shorter than the mean decay time (e.g time necessary to emit a photon) and therefore all infrared energy absorbed by the CO₂ molecules is immediately and unidirectionaly transferred to the N₂ molecules.”
In simple words – the CO₂ never has time to emit any IR photons because it loses vibrational energy by collisions instead.
This statement is indeed equivalent to the statement “CO₂ heats N₂”.
Now let us examine the above figure.
The good understanding of this figure will do much better than only answering the original question. It will also make clear to everybody what is really happening in our gas mixture in LTE.
The figure shows the distribution of the kinetic energy (Ox axis) among the N₂ molecules (Oy axis).
This typical curve is called the Maxwell Boltzmann distribution, has been known for more than 100 years and experimentally confirmed with high accuracy.
We know that the temperature is defined by <E>, the energy average.
Hence it is the curve shown in the figure that defines the temperature of a gas.
Another way to say the same thing is to say that the curve depends only on temperature. If we wanted to have the distribution for another gas than N₂ , f.ex CO₂ or O₂, it would be given by an identical curve.
The blue curve gives the distribution of kinetic energy at 25°C while the red curve gives the distribution at 35°C.
The minimal energy is small but non-zero and there is no maximal energy.
A very important point on the Ox axis is the energy of the first vibrationally excited state of a CO₂ molecule.
You notice that at 25°C the majority of N₂ molecules has insufficient kinetic energy to excite this vibrational state.
Only the proportion of them given by the dark blue surface has enough energy to excite the vibrational state by collision.
When the temperature increases to 35°C, you notice that the proportion of N₂ molecules able to excite the vibrational CO₂ state by collision has significantly increased .
This proportion is given by the sum of the dark blue and light blue surface.
You also notice that as there exists no maximal energy, there will be a proportion of N₂ molecules able to excite the vibrational CO₂ state at any temperature.
Trivial so far? Well it will not get much more complicated.
First 2 technical points which play no role in the argument but which I would like to mention for the sake of completness.
- The figure shows the translational kinetic energy. Even if in some (popular) literature the temperature is defined as being an average of the translational kinetic energy, this is not strictly true.
The temperature is really defined as an average of all energy modes. So what about the vibrational and rotational energy?
At the low tropospheric temperatures we are considering, the distribution of the vibrational energy is extremely simple : about 5% or less of the molecules are in the first excited state and 95% or more are in the ground state.
As for the rotational energy, it can be computed classically without quantum corrections and the result is that it also follows a Maxwell Boltzmann distribution.
Therefore if we wished to plot the total energy (Etranslational + Evibrational + Erotational) we would rescale the Ox axis and obtain exactly the same curve as the one that is shown.
However as we are interested in studying the T/V interactions, it is the curve of the translational kinetic energy that interests us.
- We find the omnipresence of LTE again. This curve has been derived and experimentally confirmed only, and only if, the gas is in TE. Therefore the following 2 statements are equivalent :
“The gas is in LTE” , “The energy distribution at every point is given by the Maxwell Boltzmann distribution” .
If you feel that these statements are not equivalent, reread carefully what is above.
Now we can demonstrate why the Type2 argument is wrong.
Imagine that you mix cold N₂ represented by the blue curve in the Figure with highly vibrationally excited CO₂. The mixture would then not be in LTE and a transient would take place.
In the molecular process (1) CO₂* + N₂ → CO₂ + N₂⁺ which says that a vibrationally excited CO₂ molecule (CO₂*) collides with an N₂ molecule , decays to the ground state (CO₂) and increases the translational kinetic energy of N₂ (N₂⁺) , there would be a net energy transfer from CO₂* to N₂ .
As a result of this transfer the temperature of N₂ would increase and the blue curve would move to the red one.
However doing that, the number of molecules able to excite CO₂ vibrationally would increase (see the blue surfaces in the figure).
That means that during the increase of the temperature of N₂ , the rate of the opposite molecular process (2) CO₂ + N₂⁺ → CO₂* + N₂ where N₂ molecules (those from the blue surface in the figure) vibrationally excite CO2 molecules, will increase too.
Of course the transient net energy transfer from CO₂ to N₂ will not continue forever because else the mixture would transform into superheated plasma.
A local equilibrium will be established at each point and in this equilibrium the rate of the process (1) will be exactly equal to the rate of the process (2).
The curve of energy distribution will stop moving and the Maxwell Boltzmann distribution will describe this distribution at every point.
This is exactly the definition of LTE.
The transient will stop when the mixture reaches LTE and its characteristic feature is that there is no local net energy transfer from CO₂ to N₂.
This result demonstrates both that the Type2 argument is wrong and that the answer on the question we asked at the beginning is “No”.
In very simple words, if you take a small volume (for example 1 m³) of the CO₂ and N₂ mixture in LTE around any point , then there cannot be any net energy transfer from CO₂ to N₂ within this volume.
To establish the last step we will take the following statements.
- The result obtained for the CO₂ and N₂ mixture in LTE is equally true for a mixture containing 78% of N₂ , 21% of O₂ , x% of CO₂ and 1-x % H₂O in LTE.
- The mixture defined above approximates well the troposphere and the troposphere is indeed in LTE
- From the 2 statements above and the demonstrated result follows :
“The CO₂ does not heat the troposphere” what is the answer on the question asked in the title.
Caveat1
I have said it both in the initial post and in this one.
Unfortunately, I know that it can’t be avoided and that some readers will still be confused about the result established here and start considering radiative transfers or radiative equilibriums.
That’s why I stress again that LTE and the result established here is totally independent of radiative equilibriums and radiative transfer properties.
However it does falsify one misconception concerning radiative properties of CO₂ that has also figured in the comments and that is that “CO₂ does not radiate at 15µ because it “heats” N₂ instead”.
It is also to be noted that we consider only the T/V process because it is only the vibrational modes that interact with IR radiation.
There are also rotational/translational and rotational/vibrational transfers.
The same argument used for T/V applies also for the R/T and R/V processes in LTE – e.g there is no net energy transfer between these modes in LTE even if for example the R/T process has a much higher probability than a T/V process.
For the sake of clarity we don’t mention specifically the R/T and R/V processes.
Caveat2
The result established here is a statistical thermodynamics bulk property.
This property is of course not sufficient to establish the whole dynamics of a system at all time and space scales.
If that was our ambition – and it is not – then we would have to consider boundary conditions and macroscopic mass, momentum and energy transfers, e.g convection, conduction, phase changes, lapse rates etc.
More specifically this result doesn’t contradict the trivial observation that if one changes the parameters of the system, for example composition, pressure, radiation intensity and spectrum, etc, then the dynamics of the system change too.
Yet it contradicts the notion that once these parameter are fixed there is a net transfer of energy from CO₂ to the troposphere. There is not.
Caveat3
It will probably appear obvious to most of you but it has also to be repeated.
This result says little about comparisons between the dynamics of 2 very different systems such as, for example, an Earth without oceans and atmosphere, and an Earth with oceans and atmosphere. Clearly the dynamics will be very different but it stays that in the case of the real Earth with an atmosphere in LTE, there will be no net energy transfer from the CO₂ to the atmosphere.

Nick:
“Neither do I, and that’s my point. Ozone absorption of UV clearly does warm the stratosphere. Temperature increases with altitude. The absorbed heat is transmitted down to the tropopause, where GHG emission outwards is sufficient to reverse the gradient.”
Well, there is no LTE up there. As you know.
It seems to me that the question is this: At constant level of IR, can the presence of additional OCO move the temperature from the 25 C curve to the 35 C curve? If you energize more OCO molecules, do you increase the temperature of all the air?
I don’t think the emphasized portion is true. The path of least resistance for longwave radiation to move out of the stratosphere is back out into space. The denser longwave greenhouse gases below the ozone layer will still function as insulators only in this case they’re insulating the warmer stratosphere from the cooler layer below.
It works the same as the ground layer of CO2 only in reverse. The downwelling UV energy in the ozone absorption band is extinguished high in the atmosphere and re-emitted in all directions (some directly back out into space as longwave energy). The downwelling longwave is then absorbed (primarily by water vapor and CO2) and re-emitted in all directions (some directly back out into space).
“”” INGSOC says:
August 31, 2010 at 4:34 pm
George E. Smith says:
August 31, 2010 at 11:40 am
“As a consequence, it is also true, that any single (serial numbered) molecule, will at some time or other occupy any possible position within your MB distribution.”
I knew someone was going to bring up Quantum Mechanics… My head is going to explode!
🙂 “””
No! not to worry, no quantum mechanics; simply statistical mechanics. Tom’s MB distribution graph shows what fraction of all molecules have what kinetic energy at some gioven Temperature (which is presumed fixed for any one graph) Ergo, some molecule(s) have any one of the available energies represented by that graph; and nothing bars any particular molecule from at some point haveing any such available energy, and over time any single molecule will assume that whole range of energies with the same probability distribution. Hence the time averaged value of energy assumed by any one molecule is the same as the average of the whole set on a per molecule basis.
So it is just as valid to define thermodynamic Temperature as the time averaged energy per molecule for even a single molecule; rather than the average energy per molecule for the whole set of molecules.
So Mother Gaia knows the Temperature of each and every molecule; but only after looking at the thermometer for a while. But in the time scale of molecular collision frequencies; that is nearly instantaneous compared with the twice per day min/max readings of out pitiful global weather reporting stations. So she really does know what the true global mean temperature (say surface) of the earth is, averaged over a year; we have really no idea what it is; but likely can confine it somewhere betwen about +/-90 deg C; and maybe between +/-60 deg C. (well it is most unlikely to be near either extreme; but who knows in the 1/f noise spectrum; after all the big bang was mighty big; but so far as we know, it only happened once. Once is enough to cause all this havoc.
It goes a lot more than further. It goes from true to false. The air certainly can be warmed by radiative means.
Tom V,
I, for one, gained very much from your post as usual. I can bound the example to isolate your points. Keep posting such articles if only for me.
Would like you to post a very similar scenario with water molecules instead of carbon dioxide, being that water molecules possess an active dipole and linear carbon dioxide molecule do not. For I gather, water molecules do not have to immediately release excited energy as carbon dioxide molecules which do. Molecules without dipoles cannot hold on to vibrational energy, or so many universities teach. Could you be of any help on this? This type of information is hard to come by and even when you find it the question of correctness still lingers.
Thanks for the post. Keep it up.
Do you have a site where more long-term discussions on this subject occur?
-wayne
@mircea:
That theory is wrong. It has a wrong point. It says that “With H2O vapours raising higher concentration of H2O vapours in the column of air will decrease (same quantity in higher volume)”. No, they won’t. Because as they start to decrease near the surface, more moisture comes from the ocean. And you do not need any warming in the ocean to achieve this. At equilibrium for a given temperature there will be a given moisture next to the water, and if you take it away, more water will evaporate to mantain the equilibrium. Therefore no, H2O vapours raising do not cause it to stay at lower concentrations below. It causes more water to evaporate below to mantain the same moisture that it had before.
@ur momisugly Dave Springer,
Of course, I was drawing the analogy, but not necessarily subscribing to it, since I also suggested in the Day1 scenario that a non-heating stream of radiation that pauses briefly in the absorbing molecules is what is posited by Tom Vonk and others.
I don’t know which of the two is correct, but I wish the proponents of each side would present their views in a way that is clear to me.
For example, there seems to be the contention that CO2 both radiates IR back to Earth while at the same time thermalizing the entire atmosphere. Is there anything that molecule can’t do?
The opposite view is that gases catch and toss energy without getting hot.
Others say that it is not collisions between CO2 and N2 that warms the air but collisions between N2 and SiOx and friends at the surface that have been further heated by IR from CO2.
What’s the official position?
Dave Springer says: “If you spend the same dollar in two places one of them has to be imaginary.”
Ah no. I didn’t say nuttin’, er, excuse me; I didn’t say anything about ME spending the same dollar in two places – at least not until round four. I specified two carriers. I spend a dollar, someone else spends the same dollar in a second place. Round three the dollar can come back to me when the third carrier spends it. All the same dollar. NOW I can, indeed, spend the SAME dollar in a second place. Mr. Smith would be so proud.
” Sam then gives the real dollar to John Q. Public . . .”
Now you’re just being silly; Sam hasn’t given John Q. Public a real dollar since 1964. One of those will still buy you 4 real gallons of imaginary Global Warming Carbon Footprint ™; (But WAIT! Don’t order yet. You’ll ALSO get someone else to pump it for you AND give you a free drinking glass to thank you for the privilege! I liked to hold out for the giant Sinclair “Dino” bar of Bronto soap though).
“The biggest Ponzi Scheme evah!”
See above. Don’t worry, I’ve been onto the game since about – 1964 (maybe a little earlier; being the inquisitive sort I asked my Grandfather what that $100 Gold Certificate under glass on the dresser was all about). If only I’d had enough real dollars to put aside back then.
John Eggert says: August 31, 2010 at 5:05 pm
“Mircea:
Your assertions about increasing CO2 leading to decreasing H2O is not supported by the paper you reference (see http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/E&E_21_4_2010_08-miskolczi.pdf). Miskolczi only states that he has observed no change in the amount of IR from the earth, even as CO2 increases.”
See pag 260:
“As a final conclusion of this perturbation study, we can safely state that the dynamic
stability of the stationary value of the true greenhouse-gas optical thickness of the
atmosphere is mediated mainly by the amount and distribution of the water vapor in
the atmosphere, and by the surface and atmospheric temperatures.”
Also see fig. 9 page 257 and also pag 258: “Regarding the relative importance of the CO2 and H2O it was found that 1 ppmv increase in CO2 concentration (equivalent with 0.8 atm-cmSTP increase in column amount) can be compensated by 0.3 atm-cmSTP (2.4×10-4 prcm column amount) decrease in H2O. In other words, CO2 doubling would virtually, with no feedback, increase the optical thickness by 0.0246. Calculations here show that an equivalent amount of increase can be caused by 2.77 per cent increase in H2O.”
I have an open mind. Can you think at other reasons why the transparency remains constant?
Mircea
@Tom Wonk:
Sorry, but if you wanted to make a summary of the discussion, you did dead wrong. Sensible critics said that the fact of changing one gas to the other raises the temperature. Funnily enough, you seem to admit that yourself while explaining Type 2. Even more funnily, you don’t seem to notice that you did, as you use your explanation of Type 2 to somehow try to “prove” your point.
The key is here, I quote you:
Imagine that you mix cold N₂ represented by the blue curve in the Figure with highly vibrationally excited CO₂. The mixture would then not be in LTE and a transient would take place. […] As a result of this transfer the temperature of N₂ would increase […] Of course the transient net energy transfer from CO₂ to N₂ will not continue forever because else the mixture would transform into superheated plasma […] The transient will stop when the mixture reaches LTE and its characteristic feature is that there is no local net energy transfer from CO₂ to N₂.
The “no local net energy transfer from CO2 to N2” is a characteristic feature of the new LTE. It is completely wrong if referred to the transient.
As Bill Clinton would say: “It is the transient, stupid!“.
Changing the composition of the atmosphere heats it up DURING THE TRANSIENT. If you substitue a gas which, alone, stays at a lower temperature for the given radiation of energy from Earth, for another gas with a higher temperature, the temperature of the new mix is higher. Even in the case that CO2 could not transmit its energy to N2 at all, even if it was absolutely imposible, the mere fact that there is more CO2 in the atmospheric composition and it is hotter than the other gases, that alone would raise the average temperature of the atmosphere. So CO2 to N2 transfer is to some point irrelevant.
The easiest way to see it is the opposite reasoning. Take a bottle of CO2+N2, put it next to a source of 15 microns radiation. It gets some temperature, and when the energy comming in equals energy getting out it is in LTE. Now, chemically or mechanically, whatever, take out the CO2 content alone, replace it for N2 at the same temperature that the mix had before. After the transient, the temperature of the new gas will be lower, because again energy out = energy in, and suddenly there is no energy in, so there must be no energy out, so the temperature must be 0 K.
If removing CO2 causes the temperature to drop, how the h*ll can you claim that adding CO2 cannot cause the temperature to raise? Increasing CO2 increases the gas’ capability of absorbing energy, therefore increases the incomming flux of energy, therefore increases the temperature that the gas must have to make energy in = energy out. It increases the needed temperature for reaching a new LTE.
I’m a bit stunned that some physicists don’t know how things work in the real world. Lots of jargon and mad math skillz but with such poor understanding of the real world they don’t know which equations to run the numbers through and can’t recognize the bogus results generated therefrom. Vonk is so far removed from reality in trying to conflate LTE to a deep column of air with wildly varying daily radiative input at the top of the column it’s comical. This is what gives skeptics a bad name.
This whole argument looks very circular to me. Isn’t this just a longwinded way of saying essentially “Things in thermal equilibrium don’t change temperature.”?
To which the only appropriate response is has got to be … … well duh!
Sorry but I am not convinced. In fact I’m not exactly sure what you were trying to convince me of.
kfg
You can’t eat gold. Well, you can, but I don’t think it’s very nourishing. If the monetary system collapses under its own weight no one is going to trade food, ammunition, medicine, fuel, and things of that nature for gold. Buy things that are practical barter goods and store them in a place you can control & defend.
@Tom Wonk:
A reasoning step by step, please tell me if any of the steps is wrong.
1) CO2 has a greater capability for absorbing 15 microns radiation than the remaining gasses in the atmosphere.
2) Earth is a source of 15 microns radiation (among other wavelengths).
3) Changing some O2 for some CO2, therefore increasing the CO2 concentration, increases the capability of the atmosphere to absorb 15 microns radiation (i.e. less 15um photons from the Earth’s surface escape unabsorbed to space).
4) If more photons are trapped by the atmosphere, there is more energy in.
5) At LTE, energy in equals energy out.
6) If energy in increases and energy out does not, there is a transient state where the atmosphere is not in LTE.
7) The transient finishes when we reach a new LTE.
8) The new LTE still gets an increased energy in, however now there is an increased energy out and balance is restored.
9) Given that the radiation of energy depends on the temperature, if there is an increased energy out, it is because the temperature is higher than in the previous LTE.
Is any of these points wrong? In case not, doesn’t 3 (increasing CO2 content of the atmosphere) inequivocally lead to 9 (temperature gets higher)?
Dave Springer says: “You can’t eat gold. Well, you can, but I don’t think it’s very nourishing.”
A few years ago my mother asked me, “Is there a time when gold could become essentially worthless?”
I said, “Yeah, about 10 minutes after the food runs out.”
She put her money into tinned sardines. She never takes my advice; I had suggested tuna.
I’m still ahead of you, but I suppose I could use a bit more ammo. The ax handle will keep going as long as I can.
By the way, you didn’t ask me the critical question that has made this whole exchange on topic: “How could you get your own dollar back for “free”?”
Well, I couldn’t of course. I had to put energy into the system before it could reach that new equilibrium. Some physicists leave the tower and go to work as engineers.
@Nylo: Now you are barking up Lindzen’s tree.
@kfg
I suspect that if things got that dire, the value of lead (to a much lesser extent, axe handles) would far outstrip that of gold long before the food was all gone.
The official position that gases can be sensibly heated by longwave radiation was established experimentally in 1859.
“Heat a mode of motion
By John Tyndall
http://books.google.com/books?id=3DUJAAAAIAAJ&pg=PA341&dq=%22Heat+a+Mode+of+Motion%22&output=text
The chapter on radiative absorption by gases begins on page 321. The link above takes you to the discussion of results and skips past the details of the experimental setup.
Tyndall’s apparatus wasn’t sensitive enough to detect any absorption in perfectly dry air, which illustrates how little CO2 absorbs compared to water vapor, but he had little problem with humid air and concentrated gases of various kinds.
That’s what makes this so damn frustrating. This is knowledge from experimental physics 150 friggin’ years ago!
@Oliver Ramsay:
Well, I was engaging in a bit of exaggeration for rhetorical purposes in that talk with my mother. In point of fact, under those conditions the value of lead and gold are about even ( I seem to recall a recent thread on this). Works great on the end of an ax handle too. The hammer reached its highest state of technological development about 10 minutes after metal plate armor did. Coincidence?
Let’s just say it’s a great way of transferring energy to the brain (much more effective than a cell phone); albeit at somewhat limited range and rate of “fire.”
Tom Vonk is a physicist ???
/dr.bill (physicist, refraining from piling on)
Regarding:
You asked why a more humid day cooled more slowly, I gave one. However, it’s pretty well established that the dominating effect is the “greenhouse” one, I just came up with an additional reason, if insignificant. As for as condensation, I agree it usually also plays a small role, but I did notice that your original question asked about “evenings” and your response to mine said “hot summer days”…big difference if you ask me. But again, just look at the first sentence of my response, I agree with you!…just wanted to illustrate that the question could be asked in a better way.
Also:
Entirely agreed here, and that’s why I refuse to put the C in front of AGW (of which I believe is happening to a small degree). Beer’s law makes it very clear that higher concentrations of CO2 (or longer radiative pathlengths) lead to saturation. The only mechanism for absorbing more radiation is to have some absorb in regions of lower extinction coefficients/molar absorptivity. The problem is, the extinction coefficients rapidly drop off and/or go into regions already being absorbed by other molecules, thus leading to worse than logarithmic performance. I am, however, willing to listen to actual data/numbers telling me I’m wrong.
-Scott
Phil.
“One of the things that always amused me Mosh was that when the UAH-MSU data first came out and showed the absence of warming it was justified by agreement with balloon data. After errors were corrected and a positive trend was established we were told that this data also agreed with balloon data!”
Don’t you know that data is always to be trusted.
@ur momisugly Nylo
I am not attempting to speak for either Tom Wonk or Tom Vonk, but I’m wondering why, at line 6) , you assume that the energy out doesn’t increase in line with the energy in, but then at line 8) you acknowledge that it does.
Does Kirchhoff suddenly wake up at line 7)?
If emission goes as the fourth power of temperature, then it will be considerably greater at the putative warmer temperature than at the previous cooler one.