Hurricane Danielle back to Cat 2, Earl disintegrating

Note the eye forming on Danielle, Earl is disorganized:

http://cache1.intelliweather.net/imagery/KPAY/sat_atlantic_640x480.jpg

Latest bulletins:

BULLETIN

HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  18

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL062010

1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

…DANIELLE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————–

LOCATION…22.4N 54.1W

ABOUT 650 MI…1050 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

ABOUT 945 MI…1525 KM SE OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…160 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.79 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 54.1 WEST. DANIELLE IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR…AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH…160

KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS

FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A MAJOR

HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES…65 KM…FROM

THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175

MILES…280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB…28.79 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

NONE.

================================================

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER   3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010

1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

…EARL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————–

LOCATION…14.7N 33.6W

ABOUT 615 MI…990 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 33.6 WEST. EARL IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/HR.  THIS MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS KEEPING THE CYCLONE

OVER THE WATERS OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL

IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

NONE.

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AndyW
August 25, 2010 10:35 pm

OK, where am I going to post my sea ice posts 🙁 Can you start a new one Anthony with a warning at the top? I appreciate the last one got rather rotten. Sorry, couldn’t resist 🙂
Andy

Leon Brozyna
August 25, 2010 11:12 pm

Poor Earl; getting the life sucked out of him by that finicky filly, Danielle. She just doesn’t play nice; will probably leave the models in a shambles.

Dave N
August 25, 2010 11:51 pm

Stereotypical female hurricane.. can’t make up her mind and sucks the life out of a male..

Caleb
August 26, 2010 1:25 am

The reason they started giving hurricanes male names was to stop all the chauvenist chatter about hurricanes being fickle and changable and stormy, “like women.” Obviously this attempt at political correctness has been a complete failure, judging from comments concerning Earl and Danielle.
As everyone gazes far out to sea there are interesting outflows developing right in our backyard, in the western Gulf of Mexico and also southwest of Florida.
If a storm develops in the Gulf it will get the female name “Fiona,” which would mean the wave now moving off Africa might get the male name “Gaston.” (I cringe to think of the comments that will be generated if Danielle is pursued by two men.)

August 26, 2010 1:46 am

So the question is where will HE go, and what will his behavior be like when he is alone? Go drinking with the boys, or head off to someplace new on his own, to re-find his own identity?

1DandyTroll
August 26, 2010 3:19 am

Aaah’m going in for lan! Thump. Ouch. Oh, look an eye. +_O

August 26, 2010 3:38 am

I noticed in the last season that (due to global cooling) if a storm followed to quickly after another, it was difficult for the second storm to pick up steam.
Last year’s storms seem to lack a direction; they bounced around like a pin ball off a flipper.
They still killed a lot of people and did a lot of damage as far north as Atlanta.
Paul

August 26, 2010 4:37 am

Sharing the moisture energy drink (non carbonated?)
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

savethesharks
August 26, 2010 5:29 am

Leon Brozyna says:
August 25, 2010 at 11:12 pm
Poor Earl; getting the life sucked out of him by that finicky filly, Danielle.
=====================================
She’s a typical histrionic female….always has to be the center of attention. [har har]
Chris

John Blake
August 26, 2010 7:25 am

As reported, the peak of our annual six-month hurricane season occurs typically from mid-August to post-Labor Day (U.S.), verging on ye olde Vernal Equinox. Given low-level “cyclone energy” (ICE) in conjunction with cooling Atlantic surface temperatures (SST) over past few years, macro-picture indicates major storm systems continuing their default-to-zero through November.
Once is an accident, two is a coincidence; three’s a pattern, 4 – 5 consecutive years legitimately form a trend. Bending (say) 30-year cyclical peaks and troughs around the long-term rebound from the 500-year Little Ice Age (LIA) that ended c. 1880s, we suspect that meteorological analysis in detail tends to fudge such issues.

Douglas Dc
August 26, 2010 7:45 am

Leon, Savethesharks -reminds me of my first marriage… So far no cover for Algore’s
new book…

Pascvaks
August 26, 2010 7:48 am

When a guy follows a gal that’s just too, too much, too ‘out of his league’, he just kind’a disintegrates, falls to pieces, runs out of steam, fades away. Real guys don’t eat crèche or follow girl hurricanes (too close) unless it‘s their job and they have great insurance coverage.

August 26, 2010 8:54 am

Isn’t it really hard for two hurricanes to exist, in the same basin, in near proximity? Don’t most weather people intuitively know that?

John from CA
August 26, 2010 9:22 am

I watched the computer projections yesterday with interest related to Danielle and Earl on the Weather Channel.
Not one of the computer projections displayed the possibility that Earl would simply fade — all projected a straight course across the Atlantic for the next 4-5 days with a turn to the North.
Lets see if Earl picks up some T and strengthens. Do the models account for any factors beyond SST and wind direction?
Projections related to Danielle and the current position of the jet stream in relation to projected highs and lows indicated the possibility that it could track to the East and hit New England after moving Northward for several days due to the position of the jet stream.
The last Cat. 1+ Hurricane (intensity at landfall) to hit New England was Bob in 1991.

John from CA
August 26, 2010 9:30 am

sorry, the previous comment should read:
…indicated the possibility that it could track to the West and hit New England…
Its likely to track East and fade.

John from CA
August 26, 2010 9:49 am

To be fair — here’s a view of the WC forecast models and the disclaimer I missed with my post. Note: If the models are not the official forecast, why do the broadcast them?
Maybe the official models are secret data they don’t share? j/k
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/tropical-forecast-models-two_2010-08-23

John from CA
August 26, 2010 11:43 am

Thanks M White,
The Congo Line was a great view. I had to laugh at Joe’s sign-off, “you enjoy the weather, its the only weather you’ve got”.
Atlantic water vapor patterns related to tarpon’s comment. It does show Danielle drawing a front in the path of Earl.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullwv.html
… got to love GOES:
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/overview2/movie/alley_east_globe.mp4

PJB
August 26, 2010 11:50 am

2005 is the poster child for cyclone genesis. Every nook and cranny of the Atlantic basin provided grist for the hurricane mill.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005H/index.html
The next 6 weeks should write the story of 2010 large, depending on whether it flies or fizzles. Now, IF [CO2] were driving this engine, it wouldn’t be having so many starting problems….would it? 😉

August 26, 2010 4:01 pm

But were it magnetically driven, (still not a given),
it would start and stop on a dime, or fade over time,
at least it would be delivered, way before we shivered,
to beat the heat, sound the retreat, back to computer seat,
in time to stoke the fire, and listen to Al the liar.
Before this season all goes down on paper,
I think the activity will start to taper,
as the flux balances between synods, before stepping down again,
as the 20th of September nods, and more big ones start to spin.
So if on again, off again, on again, the season of the witch?
or maybe there is some kind of EMF switch?
2005 was at the peak of the 18.6 year Mn lunar declination angle portended at culmination, there was a major planetary synod conjunction almost every month through the fall that year.
Storms generated by the crest in global atmospheric turbulence, as the tide turned just kept coming, eating up all the excess SST heat, while on a high ion content diet, leaving 2006 undernourished by comparison.
The combination of solar cycle lull, and still decreasing lunar declinational angle, has kept the decline in ACE values going, now that the background noise level is lower, it is possible to see the modulation of the pattern on an annual basis.
Once appropriate algorithms are derived for these effects, and are added to the weather and climate models, the forecasts will track much better. The myopic CO2 blindness is just slowing down the progress.

Mike
August 26, 2010 6:01 pm
Robert
August 26, 2010 8:51 pm

Earl disintegrating?????
weird headline since a lot of models take Earl to be a major hurricane in ~5 days
Earl will develop as it gets into a better zone, and it will explode similiar to what Danielle orginally went through, It DEFINETLY won’t disintegrate
REPLY: Note the date, that was yesterday, when in fact it was…now it is reforming. Always check the date. – Anthony

Robert
August 26, 2010 8:54 pm

also, for those wondering about whether Danielle wll inhibit Earl, I don’t think so. Danielle should recurve North out of the way of Earl, and the ridge that builds in from Danielle leaving will help keep Earl further South and in an area for development

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