By Steve Goddard
Darkness is returning to the Arctic as the sun moves towards the horizon. In four weeks, the sun will disappear completely at the North Pole.
Solar Energy as a function of latitude and date
The Canadian Ice Service shows that there is still low-medium concentration ice blocking the Northwest Passage.
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/Ice_Can/CMMBCTCA.gif
If you owned a ship, would you send it through a route knowing it will face shifting pack ice, possible icebergs, fog, darkness, wind, storms and the possibility of an early freeze?
“The plans that you make can change completely,” he says. This uncertainty, delay, liability, increased insurance and other costs of using the Northwest Passage are likely to deter commercial shipping here. A ship with a reinforced hull could possibly make it intact through the passage. But if it got stuck, it would cost thousands of dollars for an icebreaker like the Amundsen to come to the rescue. So even if the Northwest Passage is less ice-choked than before, the route may not become a shipping short-cut in the near future, as some have predicted.
The Arctic Oscillation was negative for a few days, which allowed colder air to escape from the Arctic and warmer air to invade the Arctic. Note that the period of positive AO starting in early July corresponded to the Moscow heat wave. The cold air was trapped in the Arctic.
The negative dip this week allowed a blast of southerly air to melt and compact the ice during the past week, as we forecast in last week’s sea ice news.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
Ice extent loss has dropped off dramatically in the last few days, as seen in the DMI graph above and the JAXA graph below.
Note that there was little loss in ice extent during 2006, after August 22.
What does the remainder of 2010 hold? Difficult to say. NCEP forecasts freezing temperatures over the broken ice in the Beaufort Sea during the next two weeks.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html
If the remainder of the summer follows a path like 2006, 5.5 million is the right number. Another blast of southerly wind during the next few weeks. and it goes below 5.5. All of the ice indexes currently show 2010 ahead of 2008. DMI and NORSEX show it ahead of 2009 as well. JAXA also shows that the ice area curve has flattened. Ice area is always less than extent, and area trends tend to lead extent by a week or two.
There are large areas of low concentration ice which are vulnerable to compaction, spreading or melt.
My forecast remains unchanged. 5.5 million, finishing above 2009 and below 2006. Same as it has been since May.
The video below shows ice movement in the Beaufort Sea this week. Earlier in the week, it was compacting rapidly, now it is slightly expanding.
It all comes down to the temperature and wind over the next few weeks.
PIOMASS forecasts continue to stray further from the mark. Areas in red are places where PIOMASS incorrectly forecast melt. Solid green is the opposite misprediction.
Lindsay and Zhang forecast a minimum of 3.96 million in July.
The modified NSIDC image below shows ice loss during the last week. Mainly in the Beaufort Sea.
The modified NSIDC image below shows ice gain since 2007 in green, loss in red.
I’m not going to make a forecast for the next week, because there aren’t any dominant indicators either way.
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I know, let’s play a game. It’s called let’s pretend the Northwest Passage is open and global warming is real! What a great way to spend our time!
William says:
August 22, 2010 at 5:59 pm
No prob, sounds like you apologized 999 times too many. 🙂
I’ll forgive you since you found the certainty of the predictions 10-20 years in the future just as absurd as I did. 😉
-Scott
Amino Acids in Meteorites,
So when satellite imagery shows us that the NWP is open, and we have people traversing it on the water, your suggestion is what, exactly – that the satellites are wrong and that the people supposedly traversing it are in reality sitting at home in air-conditioned comfort?
It seems to me that any pretence here is not occurring on my side of the discussion …
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png
Walter Dnes says:
August 22, 2010 at 5:21 pm
I think that your observation is probably more chance than anything. However, you’ll be interested to note that I used that observation as a possible way for the ice to stay above Steve’s 5.5e6 km^2 prediction. See my comment at this time:
August 22, 2010 at 2:56 am
at the posting at:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/18/arctic-toolbox-did-300000-km2-of-ice-suddenly-melt/#comments
And how do I directly link to comments on other threads?
-Scott
latitude says:
August 22, 2010 at 6:01 pm
We lose a few of those beyond-daring adventurers each year on Mt. Rainier and Mt. Shasta.
Sailing the NW or NE passages is in the same vein. There will be casualties, just give them enough time and volunteers.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
August 22, 2010 at 6:21 pm
How about a more adventurous game?
Let’s say that the Arctic Sea Ice Anomaly will keep dropping and the Antarctic Sea Ice Anomaly will keep rising.
Then predict when the Antarctic Current will get shot up the coast of S. America when the ice bridges the last gap, and what will the resulting change mean.
Bill Illis says:
August 22, 2010 at 1:22 pm
Hmm, I noticed in your link that the trace from 1980 shows a very flat late August/early September. It even looks to reach its minimum in the last week of August. What date was the minimum extent in 1980? Does anyone else want to weigh in on this?
Would it be possible to have a late August minimum this year?
-Scott
Cassandra King says:
August 22, 2010 at 11:41 am
@ur momisugly R Gates
The use of the word “warm” is misleading I think. BTW the DMI SST map shows no red whereas the NOAA map has lashings of the stuff, with red being only a very small rise in actual temps, a cynic might come the conclusion that NOAA is trying to scare us with the old paint it red for danger trick.
==============================
Exactly!
Chris
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam
Who lives in that white house….and why??
Quick, the Kara Sea is 34dF and only 40% sea ice! It is open… All the Russia cargo ships must go through the NWP NOW! PIOMAS has given the all CLEAR! Nevermind the next Siberian blockage, it will be like 2007!
http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare_small.jpg
Always staining my sense of humor.
Scott says:
August 22, 2010 at 6:52 pm
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/22/sea-ice-news-19/#comment-463838
> And how do I directly link to comments on other threads?
Note that grey field in your comment that says “August 22, 2010 at 6:52 pm”. It’s a link. With Firefox, I right-click on it, and select “Copy link location”, then paste it into a comment. If nothing else works…
* click on the comment date, i.e. “August 22, 2010 at 6:52 pm” which takes you to the page
* and then copy the URL from the URL bar at the top of your browser
* you can then paste it into a comment
John F. Hultquist says:
August 22, 2010 at 3:49 pm
I don’t find the maps at this resolution good enough to answer this qustion:
Is the NW Passage open completely from one end to the other?
Your comment implies that it is not.
If you have FireFox you can right click on the image and click ‘view image’. Then press “CTRL” and “+” and hold them down. The image will blow up and you will easily see the Northwest Passage is not open.
http://img682.imageshack.us/img682/5820/cmmbctca.gif
David Gould says:
August 22, 2010 at 6:45 pm
So when satellite imagery shows us that the NWP is open, and we have people traversing it on the water, your suggestion is what, exactly – that the satellites are wrong and that the people supposedly traversing it are in reality sitting at home in air-conditioned comfort?
It seems to me that any pretence here is not occurring on my side of the discussion …
It seems to me that the true nature of the NW passage is not the pretty picture of simplicity thusly painted:
http://exploreourpla.net/explorer/?map=Arc&sat=ter&lon=0&lat=89,9&lvl=4&yir=2010&dag=234
and your supposition that discussion is non-existant might be true in other forums, but not this one.
I hold no pretense save one: that the Arctic is a brutal reality where few dare tread or sail, and it’s reputation for rewarding the mistaken is grim.
David Gould
You’ll have to link the satellite image that shows it open. Cryosphere Today does not show it open. There is not good enough detail. So are you meaning a different image? Canadian Ice Service from today shows it blocked in 4 places.
David Gould,
I’m not including you in what I’m saying next because I don’t know what you opinion of Cryosphere Today was in the past. But I still remember how some commenters downplayed Crosphere Today when it didn’t line up with their global warming paradigm. But this week they love Cryospere Today. In both instances they didn’t know what they were talking about.
David Gould,
In case you mised the link I’ve posted here it is again. I hope you have either FireFox or image software that allows you to blow up images. You’ll see the Northwest Passage is not open.
http://img682.imageshack.us/img682/5820/cmmbctca.gif
Maybe ‘open’ has become a relative term, relative to whatever some people need it to be.
William says:
August 22, 2010 at 3:16 pm
Hey Scott,
I don’t know what it is that you’re smoking, but; can I have some please?
William also says on August 22, 2010 at 5:59 pm
Scott:
A thousand apologies to you. That’s what I get from reading too fast. I was referring to the person you quoted as stating that the Arctic would be ice free in 20 years. Again, I’m sorry. I’ll have to be more careful being a wise acre in the future.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Here, let me pass it to you once more. This time, inhale slowly and deeply.
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20091005_Figure5.png
Just that one drag starts giving you the picture, heh? Doesn’t that feel good? That stuff I just hooked (linked) you up with, is called research. It gets me high all the time. Try it someday. 🙂
To: R. Gates,
You might think that my comment is picky, but I believe that it is misleading to say that you have always been at 4.5 million. I will grant you that 4.5 million is the first and only quantitative # that I have heard from you, but earlier in the season you described your anticipation that the 2010 minimum would be at or in the vicinitiy of the 2007 minimum — without putting a # on it. So 4.3 million is more descriptive of your first guess –and that is when I sent you a note asking whether you would be around in September because that was a brave estimate. You certainly are free to change your estimate, and wise people do change their opinion when “facts change,” but your initial estimate did make an impression on me.
mecago
Look for a significant increase in MYI next year.
Mecago,
My apologies for being slow, but how does the image you linked to prove that the Arctic will be ice free in twenty years?
Hey Scott, That Birdie (Penguin) comment was just a naked Eye Obs of mine using the latest Sat obs that comes out around 430 to 530 on the NWS /Nat Ice center site. Now sitting here at 1152pm on the 22nd, Jaxa/Ijis shows a figure of 5635313 which is a significant drop of about 73,000….I have seen that get adjusted by up to 25,000 before but lately the adjustments have been no more than 10,000 so if this figure stays close There are going to be some ruffled feathers!…(I still cannot see where all this ice has gone..been staring at the Sat pic for awhile now(confused funny face)..)
mecago says:
August 22, 2010 at 8:11 pm
Actually, I try research every day. I have seven first-author papers in peer-reviewed journals, a few second-author papers, and a few patents currently pending. If you don’t believe me, Anthony has access to my e-mail address and could use that to get my real name (hidden here so I can get a job when I finish school) and confirm what I’m saying. Note that I’m not even done with graduate school yet and will be in the double digits in published first-author papers within a year, so I’m fully aware of what research is. And I’m well aware that the vast majority of hypotheses are wrong and that extrapolation of a trend is a very easy way to make errors. So how does your one link prove that we’ll see no ice in 2020?
Am I flaunting my credentials to try to put me in some place of authority? No, but I do it to defend myself against your weak insults as well as to show that real scientists DO seriously question CAGW.
As to your references to drugs, that’s not even worth addressing.
-Scott
fishnski says:
August 22, 2010 at 9:00 pm
Darn, you beat me to it. The preliminary loss of 73437 was indeed painful to see. Today coupled with the next two was by far the best time window to gain ground on 2009. Instead, this was the largest Aug 22 loss in the JAXA record.
-Scott
Amino Acids in Meteorites,
My opinion of cryosphere today is a good one, apart from me thinking that there is an issue with their comparison images, something that I have mentioned here a couple of times. I have been told that this problem is because of changes in the colour scheme that they use for differing concentrations, plus some differences in resolution, but I am not convinced that those explanations completely cover everything.
As to the image you posted, I may be reading it wrong, but it appears that at no point is there blocking ice of 100 per cent concentration. This may be simply a difference in definitions, however.
And, yes, it would be a difficult and dangerous trip into the Arctic and – perhaps paradoxically – probably more dangerous with the kinds of ice that is there at the moment rather than solid ice. I wouldn’t take the trip. 🙂