Guest post by Ric Werme
The CSU Klotzbach/Gray Aug 18-31 hurricane forecast is out. Based on the NOAA historical tropical storm and hurricane frequency below, they are betting on an uptick in activity.
They’re still looking for active weather:
We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by heightened amounts (130 percent or more) of activity relative to climatology.
More:
The above-average forecast is due to a combination of factors. The primary factor is that most of the global models are very enthusiastic about TC development over the next few days. Most of the models indicate that the wave currently moving off of the west coast of Africa will develop into a classic Cape Verde-type hurricane in the next few days. These systems typically propagate across the tropical Atlantic and generate large amounts of ACE in the process. Most of the models indicate that the system should be entering an environment favorable for storm intensification, and therefore, the likelihood of this system having a long lifespan across the basin looks good. Models also indicate that TC development in the western Caribbean as well as additional development in the tropical Atlantic also is possible over the next week or so. We do not expect the MJO to play much of a role in modulating storm activity, and since we overall have very favorable climate conditions for an active season, we believe that the next two weeks should be active.
So, things are primed and ready to fire, it’s just that the trigger isn’t here yet, but it’s coming. (Barring unforseen events. There’s always that out….)
They also look at the past two-week forecast:
The two-week forecast of tropical cyclone activity from August 4 – August 17 did not verify well. Activity at above-average levels was predicted, while observed activity was at below-average levels. The primary reasons why we believe activity was reduced during the two-week period were due to dry mid levels in the atmosphere and increased vertical stability This dryness was not expected. Also, several upper-level cold lows intruded into the tropics during the period, imparting upper-level westerly shear and hindering storm formation. However, it is not unusual for the first half of August to be almost tropical cyclone-free.
The only ACE generated during the period was by the remnants of Tropical Storm Colin that regenerated on August 5 but was then torn apart by shearing from an upper-level low on August 8. Our forecast was for an above-average ACE value of 10 or more units (>130% of climatology), while a below-average ACE of 2 units (22%) occurred. The Madden-Julian Oscillation was of a fairly weak magnitude throughout the period and likely did not play much of a role in modulating TC activity.
So, a good collection of suppressors – dry mid-level air and upper level shear
blowing the cloud tops off. While K&G have said the short time frame makes it
difficult come up with meaningful comparisons, predicting > 130% and getting
only 22% must be tough to see.
So what happened to all the ferocious hurricanes that the CAGW boffins were predicting in 2005 as they were shamelessly blaming Katrina and Rita on global warming?
Why aren’t their feet held to the fire more often over that?
“savethesharks says:
August 19, 2010 at 10:15 pm
The latitudinal position of the air circulation systems is not dictated solely by a single phenomenon such as the AMO.
===========================
I never said they were. :-)”
Whoops, I didn’t mean to suggest that. I was just thinking aloud 🙂
My two papers at nationalforestlawblog.com
October Newsletter
Under my name prove that a Hurricane is a global warming event.
In 1914, during a near zero year in sunspot activity, very cool sunspot cycles, there was severe winter temperatures that froze Niagara Falls in 1911.
Thus, during the mini-ice age there probaly zero hurricanes.
Now, we are in a solar sunspot minimum that will cool the eart
Cris and Dave,
My two papers at nationalforestlawblog.com
October Newsletter
Under my name prove that a Hurricane is a global warming event.
One is about ACE and the other is about when could the Earth have a hurricane. Hardly Nobel Peace Prize stuff, but plenty of charts.
In 1914, there was one tropical storm during a near zero year in sunspot activity, very cool sunspot cycles, there was severe winter temperatures that froze Niagara Falls in 1911.
Thus, during the mini-ice age there was probably zero hurricanes and of course zero ACE..
Now, we are in a solar sunspot minimum that will cool the Earth for the next 30 years. They will have to rewrite their science books in the very near future and start over in their understanding of hurricanes.
I appreciate the comments.
I new Al was wrong. Just set out to prove it.
Sincerely,
Paul
Perhaps we should back of kicking Klotzbach and Gray, who at least had the decency to admit they were wrong.
There problem lies in trying to predict events which have multiple drivers and to date climate science only has a sketchy knowledge about what is involved. The deterministic chaos inherent in all the climate factors which cause hurricanes to form means that there is always a low probability that forecasts will be correct.
My view is that while the solar wind remains weak and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) blows strong, dry and dusty we will get few storms, but come September/October, when solar wind increases, and the SAL loses strength I would expect to see some big storms.
Regarding the hurricane ‘season’, it’s never over ’till the fat lady sings!
August 18, 2010 at 1:58 pm – So, my prediction.
1 Named Storm. It shoots across the outer islands, skirts Cuba, enters the Gulf, smacks Mexico.
As of at least noon, EST – Storm Pulse echoing 40% chance of formation @ur momisugly approx 9N 24W. No other impulse waves evident over W. Africa. The afternoon firing T-storm front that was over the SE US 48 hours ago is now out overwater towards Bermuda, and dissipating, with nothing behind it to serve as a ‘ratchet’ to turn anything that develops to a N-Easterly path.
Sticking with the original call.
Good point!
From 1996 to 2006 was our hottest hurricane seasons.
They were the strongest and the meanest.
The average winter temps for the US were the hottest in 110 years.
It was also the end of some seven of the hottest sunspot cycles in 300 years.
It appears there is an accumulated affect.
If green house gases had an affect, it was a lid on a boiling pot.
That slowly started changing with a near zero sunspot cycle beginning in 2007. We are now in a minimum. Don’t know were the bottom is, but 30 years cold winters are ahead.
Sincerely,
Paul
When I saw my first ACE charts two years ago come off of XLS, I got cold chills down my back and the shakes.
Thanks for looking.
Paul
When I saw my first ACE charts two years ago come off of XLS, I got cold chills down my back and the shakes.
All I could say was “Oh my God!” Oh my God!”…
Thanks for looking.
Paul
A couple of things, Paul.
I follow what you are driving at, especially in the whole CAGW scam.
Where you lose me is that folks like Bastardi, and definitely Dr. Gray, are CAGW agnostics.
Dr. Gray, whose hurricane forecasting abilities over the decades are legendary, has vehemently spoken out many times against all things Al Gore.
That being said, he [and other hurricane experts] still stand by that this season should yield an intense Atlantic season.
And if you are claiming a hidden ace in solar activity [not ACE lol], then at least in terms of F 10.7, there was a similar solar minimum to the one we are rebounding from, in about 1954.
http://www.leif.org/research/F107%20at%20Minima%201954%20and%202008.png
Granted, the F 10.7 is staying pretty low this time, as opposed to the rebound in 1954, but….
1954 was also similar in two major oceanic cycles, with a negative PDO and a positive AMO.
1954 produced Carol, Edna, and one of the most intense and widespread hurricanes to ever impact the US…Hazel…in October of that year.
In 1955, three hurricanes alone hit the North Carolina coast, Connie, Diane, and Ione. 1955 also produced one of the most violent ever recorded [at one time, 200 MPH winds], Janet, which devasted Belize that year.
And you can’t really say that 1996 – 2006 were our “hottest and meanest” hurricanes, either.
Also, hurricanes do not disappear during cold periods.
There are some quite disastrous hurricanes that were recorded within the bounds of the Little Ice Age, including the deadliest Atlantic hurricane ever, in October, 1780.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/deadly.asp
Indeed, the only category 4 hurricane to ever (on the modern historical record) to hit the Virginia coast where I live was in October, 1749.
It completely reorganized the geography here, creating new inlets where there were none, and made a 3 mile long new sandbar….that is now home to thousands of houses and which shelters a bay that borders the largest Naval base on the planet.
Those houses are definitely sitting ducks. I would never own there, that’s for sure.
The point is is that there is just not much evidence that hurricanes diminish to nothing during cold periods.
To the contrary, [and also to the contrary of the now debunked AGW myth of hurricanes being stronger when if the earth warms] we might have to batten down the hatches MORE during “cool” times.
Nothing like that stark contrast between broiling tropical air and colder polar air masses and everything in between, to set in motion transfers of heat.
We shall see what happens with this year….
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
I have started reading one of your papers, bro. I appreciate your zeal.
But already what I have read, has been deductive, and not inductive.
If you want to get more scientific attention, you should approach more inductively [with less assumptions].
Does Joe D’Aleo know that you are attributing all of this to him? I don’t think he takes quite as radical a view.
Again, from one layperson to another, I appreciate your zeal.
But, from one layperson to another, I would say that way more caution is needed.
I will look forward to reading more of your paper and checking out the graphs.
PS I see you are a retired Lt. Col. in the Army. Thanks for your service to the country.
Please email me at sharkhearted@gmail if you would like to speak more.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Correlation without mechanism, let alone cause, is what led us to worship soothsayers in caves. When they got out of bed, the Sun rose.
I hit the submit button too soon. I am on a rant. Since this is just my personal opinion, it can be dismissed without causing me undo hurt feelings.
I’m always put on incredulous alert when mechanisms are not part of proclamations that this or that will happen because the Moon is in the 7th house, Jupiter aligns with Mars and the Sun is snoozing. Bringing up graphs that match this or that and saying “Thus it is!” is a post not worth serious consideration. If you haven’t found a mechanism for your wriggle matching, then stop studying your graphs and start the serious search for the plausible mechanism.
August 18, 2010 at 1:58 pm – So, my prediction.
1 Named Storm. It shoots across the outer islands, skirts Cuba, enters the Gulf, smacks Mexico.
Update as of 21/1400EDT
StormPulse now tracking and calling for 60% probability of development of disturbamce IVO 10N 31W. Cloud visuals appear to show coalescence, but no obvious organization. Pressure, at 1009MB is still a bit high.
Review of East Conus IR loop indicates that blocking/ratcheting frontal boundary that was offshore yesterday has dissipated, and current circulation patterns favor shunting any W.African area origin storms onto a Southern/GOM track.
Original prediction unchanged.
To Chris.
Nice thing about being retired and not answering to anyone is freely writing an opinion and sometimes a rebuttal and being nice enough not to libel. Must give credit where credit is due. One stays out of trouble that way.
I simply sat down and crunched numbers and found that the sunspot activity does affect our climate contrary to the IPCC and others. As I said, Al gore is the cause of my research.
Taking up your points the best I can:
Not all researchers believe the mini-ice age ended in the late 1800s or mid 1700s. The cause ended in 1698 and I said 1700. See below comment from a thread going on in the same web site.
This is “GISS Shaping Up To Claim 2010 as #1”
208. “Paul Pierett said; “I mark the end of the mini-ice age in 1700 when sunspot activity resume.”
That’s interesting, I mark the end of the LIA according to CET and other European records as being 1698. Too close to your figure to be a coincidence.
We have been warming ever since…”
tonyb By tonyb on August 21, 2010 at 9:43
So another point that we don’t all agree on. The cause probably ended in 1698 or 1700, but the affects lasted and are still showing the end of the mini-ice age, today.
Glaciers are still melting and since no one was looking, maybe remelting from the 1970s ice age scare.
Who knows? There was some progress in the Glacier Bay latitude. There was growth in 1968 and 2002.
Reference, Joseph D’Aleo. He has my work. I was working the problem that he first discovered the answer to and that was the cyclic behavior of our sunspot cycles and minimums. I could not take credit he had earned first. But, I can quote him and interpret his work much as we are doing.
Major hurricane type storms.
You are right that there were major hurricanes in 1749 and 1780.
Reference paper “Low sunspot Numbers Cool Global Warming.”
On page 36 is the cycles since 1700 and their total mean for the respective cycles. There was sufficient sunspot activity to support these storms. Once the total mean climbs above 400 and during the peak periods of activity hurricanes become highly probable. With a year of 80 mean, there is enough heat for a hurricane season.
See page 49
I am redoing that page and your point is well taken.
1749 had very high mean for that year, 80.90. And a peak year for that cycle.
You can go into SIDC, Belgium and verify that.
1780 was another year of 84.8 mean. It was preceded by 154.4 and 125.9 sunspot mean years. That creates what you need for a strong hurricane season.
Official numbers for hurricane seasons starts in 1890.
The 1954 to 1963 cycle was preceded by two “global warming” cycles. What I want to say is people stand up and take notice when it is very warm or very cold. They noticed the warming in that cycle.
There were 92 named storms in the 1954 to 1963 cycle compared to 110 and 103 of the previous cycle.
1996 to 2007 sunspot cycle had 172 named storms and 1/4th were major hurricanes.
1954 to 1963 cycle had 31 major hurricanes.
Total ACE for 1954 to 1963: 1095
Total ACE for 1996 to 2007: 1591
I list the basics for a hurricane and one is ocean temperatures. 82 degrees and 100 feet deep. Also, an area to mass, precipitation, and if you go back into the good Doctor K’s work he could give us a list of things. I have a couple of his papers from previous decades.
My main point in my work is to get people off of man-made global warming and look at the rest of the factors.
I hope this answers some of your questions. Most of this past centuries charts are in the two papers. Have fun with them.
Most Sincerely,
Paul Pierett
Man-made global warming at this point, for all of us, is a non-issue.
It always has been.
More correctly, man-made pollution is a real and vexxing problem to our species.
Its crazy, because these completely two separate arguments, have been treated as one.
A fatal, doomed flaw in the AGW myth.
But I digress….
1780 was another year of 84.8 mean. It was preceded by 154.4 and 125.9 sunspot mean years. That creates what you need for a strong hurricane season.
==============================
You may be onto something I don’t know….but you can not deduce [at all] from just that that it “creates what you need for a strong hurricane season.”
There are many, MANY other more direct variables which contribute to hurricane formation here on Earth [in its closed system], that should be answered first.
Occam’s Razor in action.
And until a true mechanism is established and proven [regardless of interesting correlation] between sunspots and hurricane formation, then everyone should rightly remain extreme skeptics on the issue of the causation that that you are claiming…
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Take up golf and/or fishing.
Paul
Think it over.
It goes back to the first of the week and why I think there are about four more named storms left in the season.
The Earth is cooling down due to the lack of sunspot activity.
Paul
Again….Occam’s razor, bro.
Show the mechanism first. I appreciate your intrepid approach here, but you gotta produce a mechanism.
One good established mechanism is that the Earth is cooling due to the ENSO cycle.
Perhaps the sun is modulating all this from afar, and in lag, but you must account first for the most direct driver of Earth’s climate–the oceans.
Firsts things, first.
And you can not deduce that when the planet “cools”, the energy that is required to form tropical cyclones, goes away.
To the contrary, [and to the contrary of what the warmists were saying] it may be just not be true.
Chris
Hey Dude,
You go find it.
Stuck like a German tank in Russian mud.
If you burn down your house, don’t blame me.
Step into your kitchen. Put a pot of water on the stove. Put the oven up to 500 degrees. Open or close the oven door.
Did the pot boil?
That is the Sun
Turn on the burner under the pot to 1/4th. This is your sunspot activity.
What happens?
Turn it up half. This is a cool/warm sunspot cycle. This is about 400 total mean for a cycle.
What happens?
Turn it up to 3/4s. This is a cycle at 600 to 700 total mean for a cycle.
Now, raise it up to high and this is 900 plus sunspot cycle mean.
How does it feel? The oven at 500 degrees with door open and the pot boiling. This is the accumulated affect of the Sun from 1996 to 2007. You should feel a lot of humidity. How many hurricanes were there and how much ACE was there
Now turn down the heat to 3/4s.that small moment where boiling out of control to calm is 2003 to 2006. 2006 was 26 tropical storms and two major hurricanes.
Now turn it down to half; 2007 to 2009.
Now turn it to 1/4 th. 2010.
Did you notice the humidity drop off from the pot and the dry oven heat taking over.
What is missing?
Direct flare heat from sunspots and humidity.
The probable missing ingredient in this hurricane season is the mechanism of sunspot activity that causes
HUMIDITY!
As I said to the good CSU and earlier in this blog, the missing formula for hurricane seasons (not El Ninos or La Ninas) is humidity.
There is very little now.
If you don’t like this theory, that is fine,
Remember 4 to 7 named storms of 50/50 mix of tropical storms and hurricanes and several tropical depressions.
I think CSU and HTC were at 22 named storms and about 10 were major hurricanes.
Lots of luck and not a prayer.
Paul
Ric Werme says:
August 18, 2010 at 1:22 pm
Ric, I never claimed they forecast another 2005, only that they have not forecast a below normal year since then. Indeed, if you go back and check the initial forecasts for each year, the BEST they did was 2009. NOAA did predict a normal year, however not all agencies followed suit:
“Forecasters in late 2008 had originally predicted that the 2009 hurricane season would be a busy one. ”
That was my point and I stand by it.
In which numbered entry did you state you point?
Paul
Looks like Klotzbach and Gray nailed it. Danielle, Earl, Fiona…