By Steve Goddard
The National Wildlife Federation has quite a history of stretching the truth when it comes to “global warming.” But I think they have outdone themselves.
This summer’s stifling, deadly heat along the Eastern Seaboard and Deep South could be a preview of summers to come over the next few decades, according to a report about global warming to be published Wednesday by the National Wildlife Federation and the Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America. In fact, according to NWF climate scientist Amanda Staudt, the summer of 2010 might actually be considered mild compared with the typical summers in the future. “We all think this summer is miserable, but it’s nothing compared to what’s in store for us,” she says. … The report, a supplement to a 2009 report on heat waves, notes that more extremely hot summer days are projected for every part of the country by the year 2050: “Summers like the current one, or even worse, will become the norm by 2050 if global warming pollution continues to increase unabated.”
Interesting theory! Only problem is that summers have been generally getting cooler across those regions for the last 80 years. Below are the NCDC summer (Jun-Aug) trend graphs for all of the states discussed in the article. More than half of those states have seen declining summer temperatures, and the average trend is -0.1°F per century.
Temperature degF / Decade Louisiana 81.17 0.01 Mississippi 79.75 -0.15 Alabama 78.96 -0.15 Florida 80.93 0.08 Georgia 78.9 -0.1 South Carolina 78.55 -0.03 North Carolina 75.8 -0.02 Virginia 73.41 -0.06 Maryland 73.34 0.09 Delaware 74.15 0.14 New Jersey 72.23 0.08 Pennsylvania 68.98 -0.15 New York 66.83 -0.08 Connecticut 68.97 0.12 Rhode Island 68.77 0.18 Massachusetts 68.15 -0.02 New Hampshire 65.41 0.04 Vermont 65.24 -0.07 Maine 63.84 -0.1
As CO2 has increased from 330 ppm to 393 ppm, summer temperatures have declined.
But it gets worse. Note in the plot below that the states with the highest population density generally also have the highest temperature trends. There is a UHI signal which is corrupting the temperature trend. NCDC is supposed to adjust for UHI, but it is pretty clear that they are not doing a good job. Rhode Island has the second highest population density in the US, and the highest summer temperature trend in the group.
If UHI was properly adjusted for, there would likely be little or no upwards trend in most of the states which currently show one.
Philadelphia finished July with an average temperature of 80F. That is one degree cooler than the years 1793 and 1838, and tied July 1791, 1798, 1822, 1825, 1828, and 1830. July was almost as hot as it was 217 years ago, when CO2 was at 290 ppm.
Apparently NWF believes that three weeks of hot July weather is more significant than a couple of centuries of climate data. Because hot weather is climate – when it is your job to shout fire in a crowded theatre.
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
Florida
South Carolina
North Carolina
Virginia
Maryland
Delaware
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
New York
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Vermont
Maine
Mike: August 13, 2010 at 9:03 am
But maybe a few of you out there aren’t completely overwhelmed with fear and can still think for yourselves a bit.
But maybe a few of us out here have already read the article *and* read Willis Eschenbach’s analysis.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/31/walking-the-plank-ton/
Go ahead, Mike — take a deep breath, read it and think for yourself.
@Mike Ford: “I’d put $100 against her theory but by the time 2050 rolls around it will only be like betting 10 cents.”
Put it into an interest earning savings account and by 2050 its value could be substantial. Even Eistein agreed that the most magical math of all was compound interest. Much more rapid growth than CO2 forcing seems to be having on climate, if I’m reading these graphs right.
Yea i was afraid when it got unusually hot this year that theyd use it as proof of global warming. Unfortunately the whims of people probably follow that trend. When it got cold as heck this winter people were always joking about global warming here, now that its 109 people now start believing even though its just a hot summer.
I went into a supermarket the other day and was curious about the blacktop in the parking lot, and wondered how much an extra effect that all the streets going from grey to black lately will have on local temps. Needless to say though when I got back out, my black leather, black car on blacktop recorded an outside temp of 131. lol.
Surely summer is when its lighter at night – doesnt seem neccessarily warmer here – UK , all yesterday I could see my breath in the air – warming is when you sit nearer the fire !! Please could we have our summer back , we are rapidly running out of time for any warmth .
“… [US] states with the highest population density generally also have the highest temperature trends. There is a UHI signal which is corrupting the temperature trend. NCDC is supposed to adjust for UHI, but it is pretty clear that they are not doing a good job. Rhode Island has the second highest population density in the US, and the highest summer temperature trend in the group.”
Why is it that many of those with a dedicated environmental agenda feel the need to stretch the true verifiable facts past the breaking point to doomsday scenarios? We don’t put up with people yelling fire in a crowded theater when there is no fire, so why do we put up with people yelling fire on a planet when there is no fire that can be proven with hard evidence? It’s irresponsible of anyone to make exaggerated climate claims especially if they are a professional in that field or if they are an environmental group or politician.
What do you do with these doomsday climate alarmist extremists?
“A Maryland man [Nick Nefedro] who refers to himself as a Gypsy is claiming discrimination in the case of a Bethesda, Maryland law that forbids “foretelling the future.”
It’s illegal in one Maryland county to tell fortunes! Hmmm… what about that guy with the movie?
http://pathstoknowledge.net/2009/08/28/fortuntellers-soothsayers-doomsayers-climate-forecasters-all-illegal-in-maryland
The population / temperature trend graph is very informative. Thanks, Steve!
Eric Anderson says:
August 12, 2010 at 10:54 pm
Village Idiot wrote:
““However, Fenimore notes that the frequency at which these extreme weather events are occurring — such as extreme heat or cold — are on the increase.”
Is it true that the frequency is really increasing?”
Consider this graph
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_b5jZxTCSlm0/Sv31ZY99ioI/AAAAAAAAD38/zHZkCLYg590/s1600-h/image017.png
from this old post
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/16/hall-of-record-ratios/
stevengoddard says:
August 13, 2010 at 7:20 am
BillW
We had an extensive discussion last month where it was decided by our warmist friends that the only sensible way to measure a trend is peak-to-peak.
————–
Steve,
IIRC, one math wiz showed that when taking a linear trend of a cyclical function you could show any trend you wanted by choosing the start date. He showed for that dataset that he could get a full range of positive and negative trends.
Mike says:
August 13, 2010 at 9:03 am
Wow, I am truly amazed at your naivety. The NASA article conveniently forgets to take the records highs back to the 1930s. Want to guess why? The 1930s swamp every decade since. Now, why would they lie to you?
You’ve already been given the plankton article by Willis. Read it. While you’re at it consider why there aren’t dead and staving fish washing up all over the world. Anyone with a miniscule amount of common sense knows that article is ridiculous.
Got any other references or are you tired of showing how little critical thinking you apply to articles that support you belief system?
Rob, 2 things.
1: No oops necessary. I always look at the cap key symbol as most do and figured it out.
2. Delaware is not next to Pennsylvania! it can’t be! It is next to Virginia! just ask Former Virginia Governor and now DNC head Tim Kaine (aka Ted Matthews).
😉
stevengoddard,
“Is there some reason why we should care about warming which occurred prior to 1930?”
If there’s no reason to care about warming prior to 1930, why we should care about warming prior to 1931? Or 1932? Or 1940? Or 1950? Is there something magical about an 80 year period other than that it gives you a result you like? If you had demonstrated the temperature record in question had a clear 80 year cycle, your doing trends peak-to-peak explanation might make sense but I don’t think you or anyone has demonstrated that.
Charlie (my dog) and I were talking about all this and Charlie said: “One way to look at it (everything about co2 I mean) is that the up-tick in co2 is caused by the down-tick in fidoplankton. As the fidoplankton gets sicker and sicker the co2 ticks-up-and-up. Based on other things, like the amount of plastic in the gyres, and all the toilet water and bilge water from all the super ships (that includes the Nuc Navy I think) dumped in the ocean over the last century, it’s no wonder at all that the fidoplankton have been decimated. That’s it! The Fidoplankton is dying big time! Co2 is just an indicator, the real problem is supertankers, container ships, and Princess Cruise Lines and the like; it ain’t on land that we got a problem, it’s the ocean’s that’s dying and what’s dying is the fidoplankton.
I asked Mr. Cherry Tamino on what he based his statement “1975 is a good estimate of when the global trend changed to its modern value”. But he does not take inconvenient questions (Ok I had a few more but only questions). Is it not funny that he picked the year the oil quadrupled as the start of modern warming?
DirkH
Yes, I would like to extend the population density/temperature trend concept further. It seems like a good metric for UHI.
From the article: “The East just sweltered through one of its hottest Julys on record, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported Monday. Every state from Maine to Florida endured one its top-10 warmest Julys since records began in 1880. Two states, Delaware and Rhode Island, had their hottest July ever.”
Did anyone here happen to notice THIS story?
US Government in Massive New Global Warming Scandal – NOAA Disgraced
Seems things have been getting a bit “warmish” in Lake Michigan this past July…
Addendum to previous message: NOAA says that one of their satellites has degraded.
The very BEST thing that can be said about a 604 F temperature in Lake Michigan is that they did not look at their data when it averaged out so “hot”. And that is totally incompetent.
This isn’t just a computer (satellite) error, it is a failure to follow up, to investigate WHY the temperatures were showing 10-15 F hotter than average.
Had this been a financial program, financial analysts would be all over it, wondering why they’d had such a profit windfall BEFORE making a public announcement about it.
But good ol’ NOAA went ahead and announced the hottest summer ever. They haven’t learned anything since the Russian temperature fiasco last October.
I’ve got a news flash for the NWF and AAFA. Heat waves are due to blocking patterns.
Dr. Landscheidt 20 years ago predicted a Grand Solar Minimum starting in 1990, bottoming out in 2030 and ending in 2070. Today we are right on schedule heading into another Little Ice Age. It is planetary mechanics, mainly Jupiter, with help from Saturn and Uranus, which provides the torque that changes the Sun’s angular momentum, causing very predictable eruptions, which ultimately dictates our climate.
CO2 is just coming along for the ride and holding on for dear life!
Larry J. Schweiger is president and chief executive officer of the NWF. He also happens to be a board member of the “Alliance for Climate Protection”, with has Al Gore as chairman (need one say more). Basically we are talking about Agenda 21, which is getting more attention these days, and about which plenty of interesting articles have been written. You can even watch “Agenda 21 For Dummies” at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzEEgtOFFlM&feature=player_embedded
Yabut, Hansen says 2010 will be the hottest temperatures of all time.
Pascvaks: August 13, 2010 at 1:46 pm
Charlie (my dog) and I were talking about all this and Charlie said: “One way to look at it (everything about co2 I mean) is that the up-tick in co2 is caused by the down-tick in fidoplankton.
No, no, no! Charlie has it exactly backwards — the CO2 up-ticks are infesting the fidoplankton, which is the reason they’re dying! But, there’s HOPE — I have developed a CO2Up-flea and CO2Up-tick nanocollar which will protect the fidoplankton from the depredations of those voracious pests. Yes, friends, for only $29.95 — less than the cost of only 3,000 tons of carbon offsets! — I will personally affix one of my CO2Up-flea and CO2Up-tick nanocollars *directly* to the Golki structure of a poor, helpless diatom! We can save the world at a mere fraction of the current US national debt!
Please use small, unmarked bills when ordering your CO2Up-flea and CO2Up-tick nanocollar(s).
Euros not accepted.
[snip]
wwf,
If you believe that the 1930s did not have a peak and the 1960s did not have a dip, why do you object to my use of 1930 as a starting point?
If Mann’s hockey stick was correct, I should be able to pick any date in the past one hundred years and see a steep upwards trend to the present.
Exactly who thinks this summer is miserable? Compared to last year when it rained most weekends around the Great Lakes, or the summers when I was a kid that you could guarantee that August would be rainy and cool, I like this summer.
Steven Goddard.
Impeccable logic-with the hockey stick ANY measurement should-as you say-show a steep linear increase. In addition, surely a trend- as defined by the WMO- is anything more than 30 years, so selecting ANY length of time greater than this-provided it finishes at the present- is surely valid?
tonyb
Given how the NWF streeeetches the truth about wildlife ‘crises,’ their pronouncements on the climate are completely predictable.
Sad. Once upon a time I was an ardent supporter of what they did, back when they were a much different organization.