I started on this yesterday, had to put it aside for work, and I’m hugely busy today. Then I thought, you know, I have a whole army of people that can crowdsource an article, so why not ask them to help?
OK the premise starts with this press release:
Higher temperatures to slow Asian rice production
Production of rice will be thwarted as temperatures increase in rice-growing areas with continued climate change
Production of rice—the world’s most important crop for ensuring food security and addressing poverty—will be thwarted as temperatures increase in rice-growing areas with continued climate change, according to a new study by an international team of scientists.
The research team found evidence that the net impact of projected temperature increases will be to slow the growth of rice production in Asia. Rising temperatures during the past 25 years have already cut the yield growth rate by 10-20 percent in several locations.
Published in the online early edition the week of Aug. 9, 2010 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences —a peer-reviewed, scientific journal from the United States—the report analyzed six years of data from 227 irrigated rice farms in six major rice-growing countries in Asia, which produces more than 90 percent of the world’s rice.
“We found that as the daily minimum temperature increases, or as nights get hotter, rice yields drop,” said Jarrod Welch, lead author of the report and graduate student of economics at the University of California, San Diego.
Problem is, I don’t quite believe this study, especially since the INTERNATIONAL RICE RESEARCH INSTITUTE shows this graph:
Average rice yield in the Philippines and a selection of
other rice-growing countries (tons per hectare) (Source: FAOstats)
I don’t know a thing about rice growing, but I figure some readers do. How can we have a temperature rise and CO2 rise in the past century and have 50 year increasing rice yields in the same Asian countries as the study?
Some other data:
I can compile what readers find and post in comments and present it as a new article. Thanks for your consideration – Anthony