By Steve Goddard
As La Niña takes hold in South America, we are seeing something I’m not sure I have ever seen before. Temperatures in some parts of the Andes Mountains of Bolivia are forecast to average below -5C this week. The entire country of Bolivia is located inside the Tropic of Capricorn.
Closeup below :
Temperatures are 6-10C below normal in much of South America.
The image below shows Unisys SST anomalies combined with NCEP forecast anomalies. Note how sea surface temperatures affect the land temperatures.
Our friend Joe Romm is very focused on the Northeastern US, but there is a whole big world out there.
Cold Weather Proves Killer in Parts of South America (Source: Time newsfeed)
Strange but true: despite blazing hot temperatures, sometimes in the triple digits, sweeping across the United States, the opposite is true in much of South America where a cold front has actually claimed more than 400 lives in parts of Peru and Argentina. The temperatures, which have hovered in the upper 30s in the southern part of the continent qualify as a rather typical winter by North American standards. But in some places, like the Andes mountains the thermometer has dropped as low as -11 degrees F and decimated alpaca and cattle herds. The usually subtropical areas affected are particularly vulnerable because the populations are largely poor, live in conditions that are not equipped for cold weather and the governments do not have the infrastructure to handle winter conditions.
As La Niña develops, climate alarmists will soon be seeking shelter from the storm.
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stevengoddard says:
July 30, 2010 at 6:12 am
wayne Job,
Don’t worry – Australia is going to be freezing too.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp7.html
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Australia is not ‘freezing’, on the cool side yes, a bit wetter than normal. Snow? Yes, in the mountains, that’s normal too. About 40% made by snow machines on the ski slopes. Outlook, a southerly outbreak over coming 2 days, snow down to 800m, quite normal in winter. A white x-mas (on the mountain top only) happens about once every 10 years Australia & Tasmania. so cooler yes, cold no and there has been a string of warmer winters. We call it weather.
John Finn says:
July 30, 2010 at 5:14 am
There is likely to be a significant La Nina. That is a fact. There was a La Nina in 2007/08. We get cooler conditons during a La Nina. None of this is in dispute.
However the question is – how much cooler will it get. Will the UAH temperatures drop to the same levels as during the 1980s or even 1990s. If not then the underlying trend is still likely to be positive. Just as far too much was made of the 2008 La Nina it looks as though we’re going to get the same extravagant claims about this one. I think it is possible that we’ve shifted to phase of more La Ninas/less El Ninos which will clearly dampen (or completely offset) any warming trend but these phases (if they exist) will end and a new warmer phase will begin.
I think Steve answered your question in a recent thread with this graph:
http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/to-2010-1.png
The graph is hard to argue against…no rise in 10 years, while CO2 continues to climb. You may need to get used to this trend with an expected drop off in temps for the next 30 years, there is no sign of real warming for at least 50 years. Good to see you recognize the upcoming cool phase and also how weak the CO2 contribution really is.
“Looks like its going to be a frigid winter this year!”
OK. If all of you are in agreement that this winter is going to be cold, I will put my faith in your forecasts and start stockpiling good quality pellets for my pellet stove… :^)
despite blazing hot temperatures, sometimes in the triple digits, sweeping across the United States
This isn’t true. It is not hot in the entire US. In California it has been a mild summer with few hot days.
Looks like lots of rain and snow for Washington (the State) and Oregon this winter.
“Do you understand what an “anomaly” is?”
Of course.
Do you understand that “climate alarmists” are worried about climate, not weather?These *short-term* anomalies, both the hot summers in Russia and the US, and the cold winter in the Andes are weather, not climate. The “climate alarmists” are concerned about *long-term* trends. Yes there are people on both sides who use short-term conditions to try to say something about AGW; these people are not actually contributing anything useful to the discussion on climate! (See, for example, your closing sentence about “climate alarmists” in a blog post about *weather*.)
Where is the cold spot just north of Europe coming from? It is surrounded by a lot of red.
@ur momisugly mjk says July 30, 2010 at 6:05 am:
It was much like your reporting on last year’s cold winter in (parts of) the U.S and Europe, while the rest of the world baked in well above temperatures.
You forgot Asia.
A soft and somewhat naive comment, if I may say so!
“…It’s not climate, it’s weather…”
I keep hearing this, and I find myself, non-climatosophisticate that I am, wondering exactly what he standard of comparison is.
What IS climate, if not the summation of weather trends over time?
Every definition I can find seems to follow this same basic formula:
“Climate encompasses the statistics of temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, rainfall, atmospheric particle count and other meteorological elements in a given region over long periods of time. Climate can be contrasted to weather, which is the present condition of these same elements and their variations over periods up to two weeks.”
Seems to me this is like saying “that’s not a FOREST… it’s just a bunch of damn trees!”
Appears to me that the only methods used to determine “climate” is to track trends in weather. No?
Can someone set me right, if I’m missing something?
Keep in mind that during a la nina the ocean is actually absorbing heat. Keep an eye on the Western Pacific Warm Pool as this la nina event matures.
I see a lot of blue… the global temperature will take a nose dive… running nose!
Stevengoddard:
I sit on a state environmental board that makes rules for mining. So, I guess I am an environmentalist, a real one, in my own personal opinion, as I try to look at real data before making decisions and my goal is to protect the environment while being as fair as possible to those companies and individuals operating in that environment. Many of those posting on WUWT still just don’t get it.
Example:
At one meeting we determined that remediation of old mine sites was, in certain instances, a negative for wildlife and the land owners, based upon the wild life department’s data, the landowners’ desires for their land use as well as the total lack of any harm being done by not doing certain portions of the remediation. Representatives of the local “Resource Defense” people were against any form of non-remediation. When I asked them why, the answer was that “it would save the mining companies money”. No mention of any possible harm to the environment, as there was none.
The virulenty “green” organizations and their supporters are left wing POLITICAL groups with a cause and they consider others that do not agree with them as the ENEMY. We will never obtain real science from these people as the lie is their main tool and always has been. Disruption of private enterprise, development and the economy is their goal. Out of disaster they reap control, which is what they really seek. Of course, many of the grassroots members of these groups simply have no life and are ignorant and easily used by those promoting their “cause”.
This is why I like the “I’m shocked, shocked….” comment so much whenever we catch these folks in another lie or ignoring facts and real science ( another form of lie).
Maybe it’s a Pacific Coast thing. From the San Diego Union-Tribune:
“San Diego is experiencing the coldest July since Franklin Roosevelt was president in 1933. The average monthly temperature, to date [July 27th], is 66 degrees at Lindbergh Field. That’s almost five degrees below normal.”
mjk: July 30, 2010 at 6:05 am
Steve,
Cherry picking as always Steve. What about the massive heatwave presently sweeping Russia, the largest country on Earth. Thousands of people have died…
Got a source for that? A friend in the Ukraine tells me the number of “drinking-while-swimming” drownings are up, but no one is keeling over from heatstroke.
mjk,
The “record warmth” last winter was due primarily to a region of Canada which was running -20C instead of the usual -25C.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/graphics/tlt/medium/global/ch_tlt_2010_01_anom_v03_2.png
Here in NE Oregon 3000ft msl- No tomato summer in progress, been warm in the
day cold at night. Still some snow in the Wallowas and Blue mountains. Expecting severe Thunderstorms today. I thin Nina’s going to have her way with US too…
The planet’s cooling folks. We foolishly convert food to fuel…..
Regarding the recent rash of outbursts claiming that this is going to be “The Hottest Year Evah!!!!”
It’s obvious to even the most casual (but honest) observer that this is scientific nonsense for a number of reasons. (you don’t make “conclusions” about any dataset before half of it has even been measured) However, it DOES make sense politically – this is a big push to establish a political narrative before the fall US elections. Time is running out to accomplish this goal, and they know it. They lost the narrative last December, and the purveyors of this nonsense would do anything to try and get it back.
As I keep saying in various posts – this isn’t about the science, it hasn’t been about the science for a very long time. This is about politics, and this is a purely political push by a group that is so desperate that they don’t even attempt to hide the scientific fraud anymore. And they don’t even care if the fraud is exposed, because they know they have less than 100 days before their game is up for good. They would do anything, tell any lie, manufacture any data, to avoid that end.
How incredibly infuriating it must be to them to realize that the public isn’t listening to them anymore! But they have no choice but to try, because when this finally falls apart everything they believe and trust in, including their own careers, falls with it. And they know this.
And for those who don’t believe that this is a co-ordinated message coming out – have you been reading the Journo-list archives printed by The Daily Caller? Very similar to the Climategate e-mails in that it shows that people supposedly at the top of their crafts (in this case, journalism) casually conspire to betray everything that they are supposed to stand for simply to gain advantage for their favorite political causes. What comes out most clearly is that virtually no one in the business thought it was wrong to lie to the public as long as the correct political goals were achieved. That’s the mindset we’re dealing with.
They make the old Pravda look like a bunch of ham-handed amateurs.
The CAGW propaganda is all coming out now since by this time next year, the CAGW proponents won’t be able to convince anybody of their view:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/glbT2mSea.gif
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John Finn says:
July 30, 2010 at 5:14 am
….However the question is – how much cooler will it get…. I think it is possible that we’ve shifted to phase of more La Ninas/less El Ninos which will clearly dampen (or completely offset) any warming trend but these phases (if they exist) will end and a new warmer phase will begin.
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Or it could be the start of a cold phase if these papers are correct and then we had better keep pumping out the CO2.
Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic
“..Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ca 11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes. The extra energy elevated early Holocene summer temperatures throughout the Arctic 1-3° C above 20th century averages, enough to completely melt many small glaciers throughout the Arctic, although the Greenland Ice Sheet was only slightly smaller than at present… As summer solar energy decreased in the second half of the Holocene, glaciers reestablished or advanced, sea ice expanded, and the flow of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean diminished. Late Holocene cooling reached its nadir during the Little Ice Age (about 1250-1850 AD), when sun-blocking volcanic eruptions and perhaps other causes added to the orbital cooling, allowing most Arctic glaciers to reach their maximum Holocene extent…”
Lesson from the past: present insolation minimum holds potential for glacial inception
“Because the intensities of the 397 ka BP and present insolation minima are very similar, we conclude that under natural boundary conditions the present insolation minimum holds the potential to terminate the Holocene interglacial. Our findings support the Ruddiman hypothesis [Ruddiman, W., 2003. The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era began thousands of years ago. Climate Change 61, 261–293], which proposes that early anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission prevented the inception of a glacial that would otherwise already have started….”
The Authors do say there will be no returning Ice Age but that is based on the assumption of “continuously increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and no change in the sun.”
However we now know that lately there have been changes in the sun:
During the last century the sun has been very active but with cycle 24 the sun has now gone into a long minimum with “unusual characteristic”s according to NASA and the Solar Dynamics Observatory Mission News
“We want to compare the sun’s brightness now to its brightness during previous minima and ask: is the sun getting brighter or dimmer?”
The answer seems to be dimmer. Measurements by a variety of spacecraft indicate a 12-year lessening of the sun’s “irradiance” by about 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at EUV wavelengths.”
This is in contrast to what was happening in the solar cycles before cycle 24.
Solar activity reaches new high – Dec 2, 2003
” Geophysicists in Finland and Germany have calculated that the Sun is more magnetically active now than it has been for over a 1000 years. Ilya Usoskin and colleagues at the University of Oulu and the Max-Planck Institute for Aeronomy say that their technique – which relies on a radioactive dating technique – is the first direct quantitative reconstruction of solar activity based on physical, rather than statistical, models (I G Usoskin et al. 2003 Phys. Rev. Lett. 91 211101)
… the Finnish team was able to extend data on solar activity back to 850 AD. The researchers found that there has been a sharp increase in the number of sunspots since the beginning of the 20th century. They calculated that the average number was about 30 per year between 850 and 1900, and then increased to 60 between 1900 and 1944, and is now at its highest ever value of 76.
“We need to understand this unprecedented level of activity,” Usoskin told PhysicsWeb.”
There is also the changes in albedo from cloud cover as measured by the Earthshine Project
http://www.hindawi.com/journals/aa/2010/963650.html
“…..The earthshine observations reveal a large decadal variability in the Earth’s reflectance [7], which is yet not fully understood, but which is in line with other satellite and ground-based global radiation data….”
Climate Scientists really do not actually know what is going to happen and the unhealthy focus on just one variable, CO2, could leave mankind unprepared for a very nasty surprise. This is especially true if we have a large volcanic eruption in the right place during a solar grand minimum, a cool ocean cycle and during the wrong point of the precession of the equinoxes.
Local TV news casts here in Southern California are beginning to call this ‘the year without a summer’.
REPLY: That’s remarkable, do you have any links to any reports or video that says that? – Anthony
Fuzzylogic19
You do understand the future tense?
“Australia is going to be freezing”
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2010/07/cool-summer-la-set-more-record-low-temperatures.html
Cool summer: L.A. sets more low-temperature records
July 29, 2010 | 7:05 am
The unusually cool summer continued in Southern California, where several new record-low temperatures were recorded on Wednesday.
The 68-degree low at Los Angeles International Airport broke the old record low for the day, which was 70 degrees in 1991. Santa Barbara (68) and San Luis Obispo (69) broke records as well.
The temperature at USC, 75, tied the record low set in 1999. UCLA also set a record, 56 degrees, according to the National Weather Service.
While the region saw a heat wave a few weeks ago, temperatures have been gradually going down again as July comes to an end.
June was also marked by gloomy conditions and lower-than-normal temperatures.
Johnny D
“Long term trends” have earth cooling 10C since the Jurassic.
Gail Combs says:
July 30, 2010 at 7:14 am
The other interesting thing I noticed on the maps recently is the warm water “anomaly” seems to be migrating towards the north pole. Has anyone else noticed that?
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Gail, that’s the one thing I keep up with every time.
A few years ago, no one mentioned it. But anyone that kept up with it and watched it, saw it happen.