By Steve Goddard
- Doomsday clock – Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists
Way back in June, The Guardian wrote up an excellent summary of the official forecasts of doom.
Scientists at the US National Snow and Ice Centre Data Centre (NSIDC) report today that Arctic sea ice – frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface – is now at its lowest physical extent ever recorded for the time of year, suggesting that it is on course to break the previous record low set in 2007.
The chances of that happening are pretty close to zero.
Global surface temperatures may also be at a record high, according to leading climate scientist James Hansen and colleagues at the National Aeronautic Space Administration (Nasa).
If they keep adjusting temperatures upwards, they may eventually get to that point. But they are in a rush against time, because there is a strong La Niña building.
Hansen, credited with being one of the first scientists to study climate change, dismisses sceptics’ claims that global warming “stopped” in 1998. “Record high global temperature during the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010,” he writes.
Well, actually not.
“Hansen – Global warming on decadal timescales is continuing without let-up … we conclude that there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.2C/decade that began in the late 1970s.”
Reality differs. None of the major indices showed much warming over the last decade.
As a result of high sea surface temperatures, the Atlantic hurricane season – which officially started this week – is expected to be one of the most intense in years. Last week NOAA predicted 14 to 23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes – three to seven of which were likely to be “major”, with winds of at least 111mph.
The hurricane season has been quite average so far, and Sea Surface Temperatures are plummeting, as forecast by WUWT six months ago.
These same people fail with their forecasts of doom over and over, and just keep turning up the volume. Meanwhile Antarctic ice continues at record highs. Maybe The Guardian needs to do a story about that?
” stevengoddard says:
July 29, 2010 at 9:10 pm
If anyone can provide information on Snowlover123′s existence prior to 2010, what school he attended, what degree and profession he has, what his scientific publications are, I’d love to hear about it.”
You forgot: “… and what his real name is…”
But I would appreciate some information about the contributors, too, in “ABOUT”, in the style of “ABOUT ANTHONY”, maybe a bit shorter.
Alexej Buergin
Mark Serreze at NSIDC and Joe Romm already published the critical portion of my bio. They described my understanding of the Arctic as “breathtakingly ignorant.”
So you can accept Mark/Joe’s (every summer) forecast of a “a possible record low” or you can look at my detailed long-term and week-by-week forecast.
Remember that climate alarmists treat their opponents with only the greatest respect, in the tradition of the great debating societies at Oxford. Because they understand what science is all about – and anyone who disagrees with them must be a criminal oil industry shill who should be jailed.
Indeed, the very survival of the planet depends on converting everyone to their point of view. They have achieved the same high level of spirituality as the Mullahs of Iran.
I expect and am preparing for a very cold winter this year. Every body should visit the ICE AGE NOW web site.
stevengoddard says:
“July 30, 2010 at 5:32 am
Mark Serreze at NSIDC and Joe Romm already published the critical portion of my bio. They described my understanding of the Arctic as “breathtakingly ignorant.”
So you can accept Mark/Joe’s (every summer) forecast of a “a possible record low” or you can look at my detailed long-term and week-by-week forecast.”
I never read what these two honourable gentlemen write.
My suggestion about “about WUWT” was meant to strenghten it, the same way as it is better to use your real name.
northerngirl says:
July 29, 2010 at 11:43 am
Apparently despite endangerment findings and all the hype about the increase in disease, this administration is apprarently not too worried about it – this from CDC’s proposed FY2011 budget:
“Vector-borne Diseases (-$26.7 million)
The FY 2011 budget request does not include funding for Vector-borne Diseases. No specific funding is included for vector-borne activities, including West Nile Virus surveillance (WNV).”
______________________________________________________-
No kidding. The government and the states have sharply CUT spending and closed down government labs since the passage of the World Trade Organization Agreement on Agriculture in 1995. Now we are supposed to rely on “traceability” to prevent disease instead of testing and quarantine. I kid you not. Farmers have been up in arms about it for years but you will not see a word about it in the mass media.
For example in the state of California in 1995 Animal Health Officials did 10,576 tests for Tuberculosis in cattle and 30 from submissions at slaughter. By 1999, four years after WTO was ratified, the number had dropped to 1,425 tests. Thanks to the open border policy for the TB infected herds in Mexico, “Bovine TB was confirmed in three dairy herds during 2002-2003.[California] ….Although the source of the infections was not confirmed, the investigations indicate TB was most likely imported in infected cattle….” http://www.cdfa.ca.gov/ahfss/Animal_Health/pdfs/Tb_in_California_2006.pdf
TB infected herds are now found in several states including California, Oklahoma and New Mexico. Additionally, it is anticipated that both New Mexico and California will lose their TB “free” status in 2008, (from AGENCY STRATEGIC PLAN: FOR THE FISCAL YEARS 2009-2013 PERIOD BY TEXAS ANIMAL HEALTH COMMISSION)
The USDA had reported “The number of carcasses found infected with TB is 15 times higher than in 1986” a few years ago but now you will no longer find that or other similar information on the web. The TEXAS ANIMAL HEALTH COMMISSION report was also changed but not the date.
Global warming is not the only place you will find propaganda coverups.
Alexej Buergin says:
July 30, 2010 at 8:53 am
….My suggestion about “about WUWT” was meant to strenghten it, the same way as it is better to use your real name.
______________________________________________________________
For those who are of working age, commenting under their real name can be very very dangerous. Corporations want “team players” They do not want people who are independent thinkers or “mavericks” HR departments now routinely google a person’s name so comments you made can come back and bite you. Writings by someone with the same name as yours can bite you. If you have ever been a small business owner they do not want to hire you.
It is another method for enforcing “group think”
Also science should stand alone on its own merits. It is the idea and the evidence and not the “NAME” that matters or should.
Interesting comments and some are very telling. If you are not a government funded muckity muck, it’s obvious that you are not qualified to interpret data and as such you are in denial – of something – not exactly sure what that is (reality?), but if you don’t work of NASA or CRU, you can’t play in the sandbox of ideas and statistics – period. That passes for science these days. After all, it is already settled. The ‘Tree’ AlGore said so.
Amino … did you look at the Ice Graph you posted ?
Amsr-E’s 2010 passed 2009 again. The Soap Opera Continues.
Data: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
Comparing _______2007___ to___ 2010_______&______2009
Ahead June 28______ no________ 679,531 Square Km____no___
Ahead July 28____594,844_________no______________21,094
Ahead July 30____580,625_________no______________ 3,281
Ahead July 31____540,625_________no_______________ no ___(39,531 behind)
Daily:
July28-29 ______- 48,594 _____- 57,912
July29-30 ______ – 51,250 _____- 77,969 = 9 %
July30-31 ______ – 52,812 _____- 92,812 preliminary = 8.8 % (DOOM %)
Aug1-to-2______ – 51,250 _____ ? ?
Pips showed strong motion (in a reverse Beaufort Gyre typical of Long-term Lows) http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/archive/retrievepic.html?filetype=Displacement&year=2010&month=7&day=30
but in a few days it weakens = shift to La Nina = Clear Skies ?
cf the Pips Forecast at http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/archive/retrievepic.html?filetype=Displacement&year=2010&month=8&day=1
I’d kind-of prefer to be a few weeks l;ater — better Wrong than Dead.
I see from the “Soot ” post I’ve always been right that: Warming is Coming from the SOOT promoted by the Global Warming Lobby (doubtless to Perpetuate their Tax subsidies).
A good map of how the Ice is being Eaten away from the European side is figure #5 in: http://www.arcus.org/files/search/sea-ice-outlook/2010/07/pdf/pan-arctic/kaukeretaljulyoutlook.pdf
Yes — the New (submitted July 14) Sea Ice Outlooks are out. Unfortunately they only put up the first page of my submission.
Does anyone know where I could put up the rest ???
If you are going to post NSIDC graphic on Antarctica, be fair and post the one for the Arctic, for the same time frame. (seen here: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/06/arctic_sea_ice_melting_unusual.html).
Unlike the Antarctic, it does show that it’s on pace to be significantly lower than the ’79-2000 average, like in 2007.
Objectivity people.
Still no hurricanes:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml