By Steve Goddard
- Doomsday clock – Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists
Way back in June, The Guardian wrote up an excellent summary of the official forecasts of doom.
Scientists at the US National Snow and Ice Centre Data Centre (NSIDC) report today that Arctic sea ice – frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface – is now at its lowest physical extent ever recorded for the time of year, suggesting that it is on course to break the previous record low set in 2007.
The chances of that happening are pretty close to zero.
Global surface temperatures may also be at a record high, according to leading climate scientist James Hansen and colleagues at the National Aeronautic Space Administration (Nasa).
If they keep adjusting temperatures upwards, they may eventually get to that point. But they are in a rush against time, because there is a strong La Niña building.
Hansen, credited with being one of the first scientists to study climate change, dismisses sceptics’ claims that global warming “stopped” in 1998. “Record high global temperature during the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010,” he writes.
Well, actually not.
“Hansen – Global warming on decadal timescales is continuing without let-up … we conclude that there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.2C/decade that began in the late 1970s.”
Reality differs. None of the major indices showed much warming over the last decade.
As a result of high sea surface temperatures, the Atlantic hurricane season – which officially started this week – is expected to be one of the most intense in years. Last week NOAA predicted 14 to 23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes – three to seven of which were likely to be “major”, with winds of at least 111mph.
The hurricane season has been quite average so far, and Sea Surface Temperatures are plummeting, as forecast by WUWT six months ago.
These same people fail with their forecasts of doom over and over, and just keep turning up the volume. Meanwhile Antarctic ice continues at record highs. Maybe The Guardian needs to do a story about that?
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
The strong La Nina that is building is of particular interest. The oceans are very cold right now with the projected SST’s driving further down, the PDO starting to get serious in the negative mode, the AMO not quite sure and the NAO showing signs of following the PDO. The AAO in the south looking to boost La Nina production.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_inv.gif
Along with the climate oscillations the Sun promises little (which appears to be related), the next northern hemisphere winter might be something to talk about?
Paul Ehrlich, author of The Population Bomb, has been spectacularly bombing ever since.
The lamestream media (ABCNNBCBS, NYT, WaPo, etc.) keeps on breathlessly reporting on all the pending disasters mankind faces (let’s book Ehrlich for an interview with Matt Lauer). And if you dig further you’ll find that viewership of the idiot box news reports keeps dropping and the print element faces collapsing subscriber rates.
Mark Serreze’s NSIDC, the least offensive of the offenders, carefully walks a fine line between scientific probity and AGW alarmism correctness. They do this so well that the media can quote and paraphrase them, as The Guardian did, in such a way that it sounds like NSIDC is forecasting a new record low sea ice extent this year.
And then of course there’s Hansen with his hottest hour/day/week/month/year/decade/century ever.
For some people, failure is an option, perhaps the only option. Such as the Orrin Boyle wannabes held up as models of business excellence (think Tony Hayward of Beyond Petroleum).
I guess it’s true — birds of a feather do stick together.
In September they will say it’s the 4th lowest Arctic ice extent on the record or that the long-term trend is still down. Reason tells me that sooner or later they are going to have to throw in the towel.
Joe Lalonde says:
July 29, 2010 at 4:42 am . . .
Nah . . surely not. I mean not the MSM?
Robert Goddard was ridiculed as a “Moon Man” etc. “Scientific consensus” dictated the
idea that rocketry could not operate in a vacuum. However,Herman Oberth was paying
attention even if the US government wasn’t:
http://space.about.com/od/biographies/a/robertgoddard_2.htm
My wife calls me a “Frustrated Spaceman”
“Why don’t you fellows solve your little problems and light this candle. ”
-Alan B.Shepard…
Peter Sinclair, the video environmentalist, has another vid out concerning the warming the Mr. Goddard is posting about. I watched at Little Green Footballs. I used Mr. Goddard’s Hansen quote from yesterday to show the unscientific manner Hansen came up with his numbers, estimates in the Artic.
Mr. Sinclair is very choosey with the presentations he shows. It is very misleading.
Pascvaks says:
July 29, 2010 at 7:44 am
If Hansen et al didn’t exist, would we have to invent them? Do we prolong the misery of uncertainty and suffering for the World by focusing so often on the roaches and rats in the walls and the foolish, haywire, psycho germs they carry about and so little on the inhabitants and those who are actually doing something helpful for us all? Just wondering.
HUH?
The dead sea: Global warming blamed for 40 per cent decline in the ocean’s phytoplankton.
You may have read this online from the Independant, the online version is nothing like the printed propaganda, it has a full colour front page and full colour pages 3 and 4.
The picture on the front page shows in all the fish in the food chain, the biggest at the top of picture and the caption, Dead sea.
It is obvious why they do not want the printed version on line.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/the-dead-sea-global-warming-blamed-for-40-per-cent-decline-in-the-oceans-phytoplankton-2038074.html
The liberals here won’t like it, but the worshipful followers of “the apocalyptic cult” (under the ‘green’ and ‘environmentalist’ labels) are what Lenin called “useful idiots.”
Gail, you should write a book. It is impossible to keep up with the flood of your quotes and links.
/Mr Lynn
I also see a trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade in the graphs. But click the link and re-plot them back to 1990 and a whole new picture emerges.
A graph based on a temperature dataset that shows a huge peak in 1998, which everyone attributes to a very strong ENSO, not to CO2-caused warming, cannot be taken as evidence of strong CO2-caused warming.
If a strong ENSO can affect global temperature, then a weak ENSO, or no ENSO, or a La Nina, or a volcanic eruption, or a myriad of other things can also affect the data. Without accounting for all those effects, at least to the level of hundredths of a degree Celsius, the dataset cannot tell us anything significant about CO2-caused warming.
Pointing to those charts as evidence of disastrous AGW is misdirection, pure and simple.
– dT
We do not know yet if March or July will be the hottest month of 2010. But if we use the monthly temperatures fron UAH to get a trend from El Niño-peak 1998 (February) to El Niño-peak 2010, it will be less than 0.04°C per decade in any case, which is not significant. Jones is right.
People can see whatever they want in the graphs, but mathematically the trend isn’t there.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2000/to:2010/plot/rss/from:2000/to:2010/trend
Nick Stokes says:
July 29, 2010 at 12:48 am
hansen blah blah blah hansen blah blah…
are you serious? hansen is so far from reality that whatever he and his minions produce is not even wrong.
Ya but without man caused globull warming the coming period of El Nina would be much worse and just wait when we go into another El Nino. Hanson and company are writing that up right now.
How right Al Gore is : Global Warming is unprecedented nowadays . Let us not fiddle about minor discrepancies like thermometer reading , but let us face the facts :
In 1945 when the US liberated Holland from the demonic german rule there were next to nudists as nudism was associated with greenish german thinking . Nowadays according to the nudist federation there are a couple of million active nudists . Did they fall back to the old greenish thinking ? Oh no , global warming forced them to put off their clothing ! The beaches became simply too hot ! We are waiting for a prophesy by mr Hansen how the Dutch will be dressing up in future ? Will he stay decent himself and is this development irreversable ?Anyway here Global Warming and its most primitive consequences cannot be denied in any way shape or form .
mkelly says:
July 29, 2010 at 8:40 am
“Mr. Sinclair is very choosey with the presentations he shows. It is very misleading.”
“Choosy” is too kind. I’ve flat out shown him that he was wrong on several of his videos and he’s refused to correct his mistakes. He is a propagandist through and through.
Dave from the “Hot” North East of Scotland says:
July 29, 2010 at 12:53 am
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/7914611/Met-Office-report-global-warming-evidence-is-unmistakable.html
That has to be one of the most ridiculous polar bear photos I’ve seen. I’ve be quite surprised if that wasn’t photo-shopped.
Pascvaks says:
July 29, 2010 at 7:44 am
If Hansen et al didn’t exist, would we have to invent them? Do we prolong the misery of uncertainty and suffering for the World by focusing so often on the roaches and rats in the walls and the foolish, haywire, psycho germs they carry about and so little on the inhabitants and those who are actually doing something helpful for us all? Just wondering.
__________________________________________________
I lost my livelihood twice thanks to the mass media and raving maniacs, I will probably be losing not only my livelihood but my entire life savings to the mass media and raving maniacs for a third time very shortly. Only this time I and my husband are in our sixties and can not recover. I am not the only one. There are over 2.1 million of us in the USA alone and some of us are waking up and opening their eyes.
There are actually very few “who are actually doing something helpful for us all” if you look you will find they are just a front for the greedy and they do not even know it.
Wall Street and western bankers funded Lenin and the Bolsheviks, just as they are funding Greenpeace, WWF, and “climate science” today. If you think they are doing so out of the goodness of their hearts, I have this bridge I want to sell….
I don’t care how you spin it, this is not a prediction, this is a joke:
“Last week NOAA predicted 14 to 23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes – three to seven of which were likely to be “major”, with winds of at least 111mph.”
Can I have those odds with the lottery?
Only they get millions to come up with this crap.
Apparently despite endangerment findings and all the hype about the increase in disease, this administration is apprarently not too worried about it – this from CDC’s proposed FY2011 budget:
“Vector-borne Diseases (-$26.7 million)
The FY 2011 budget request does not include funding for Vector-borne Diseases. No specific funding is included for vector-borne activities, including West Nile Virus surveillance (WNV).”
Following up on Dave from the “Hot” North East of Scotland’s comment
look at this kindergarten graphic full of mistakes.
http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2010/07/29/climate-change-study-noaa.html
I hardly know where to start !
londo & others — “hurricane frequency be higher when the arctic is cold and the equator warm”
No. and hell no! maybe you all are thinking of tornados
Hurricanes are a different thing and are the results of characteristics in the off-the-equator tropics. Look it up!
thegoodlocust says:
“That has to be one of the most ridiculous polar bear photos I’ve seen. I’ve be quite surprised if that wasn’t photo-shopped.”
The polar bears on ice photo is real. Just not relevant to the topic. The story of this photo is widely known, including its misuse by Al Gore.
http://www.whoi.edu/beaufortgyre/dispatch2004/dispatch02.html
Scroll down.
And NASA joins in …
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/antarctica-outline.html
and
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/icescape2010_arctic_ice.html
When we know , thanks to Mike Rivero and others , that thermometers were placed near heat islands ( like tennis courts , ventilation , etc ) why even bother wasting time acerting that data ?
Just look instead at the rising levels of oceans for decades , a certain fact just ask the Dutch … Should I add that ice melts when it is warmer ?
So , what is left to nail in the heads of people is that humans have very little to do with climate change , That’s the Point .
See a world free of deceit and the elite at RecipeForaNation.vox.com , future shocking .
Nick Stokes says:
July 29, 2010 at 12:48 am
“Well, actually not.”
When the Australian Bureau of Met was asked about using data from 1950 rather than the full data set, their response is shown below. Note in particular the use of reference years 0f 1961-1990 as ‘regarded internationally as the standard reference period’.
Are our supposed ‘experts’ comparing apples and oranges to meet a desired outcome?
Even if they are not, how is anyone supposed to keep track of what they are attempting to tell us when the goalposts keep moving? It’s no wonder there is so much confusion.
———————————————————————-
See ‘http://abcnewswatch.blogspot.com/2010/03/update-csiro-shed-little-light.html”
Question 2: The charts showing temperature, rainfall and hot and cold day maximums do not show data prior to 1960. BMR claims to have been observing and reporting on weather in Australia for over 100 years. Why did it not use its complete set of records in depicting changes in these parameters? Does omitting an earlier period of warming between 1910 and 1940 for which BMR has records affect the resulting charts? What would be the effect of including this data on the charts? Can CSIRO provide updated charts showing the effect of including the full set of records?
Answer: The plots provided in the Climate Snapshot cover the last 50 years because this is the period in recent memory of most Australians and for which we have the most comprehensive information. Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC 2007). It is also worth noting that the period 1961-90 is regarded internationally as the standard reference period and the Snapshot brings us forward to today. The Bureau has always stressed that the full record is available for people to look at and analyse and has recently published the full record in the Annual Climate Summary 2009, the major Bureau publication released in March 2010.