By Steve Goddard
On June 28, I generated a forecast projection for Arctic ice during the remainder of the summer, seen below.
So how is it doing so far? The image below shows that my forecast has been too conservative. The actual JAXA path (red) is above my forecast (dashed.)
Does this mean that I need to increase my forecast minimum to a higher number?
No, I don’t have any plans to do that, because I expect melt to occur faster during the remainder of the month. NCEP is forecasting warmer temperatures over the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas for the next two weeks.
We are already seeing evidence of this in the DMI graph of 30% concentration ice.
I expect to see that JAXA will move closer to my 5.5 million km² forecast for the summer minimum.