By Steven Goddard,
A few days ago I did a post Latest Barrow Ice Breakup On Record? Since then, the Barrow webcam has started showing open water, which has confused some of our friends into believing that the ice has broken up at the NARL site – located five miles to the northeast at Point Barrow.
The map below shows the city of Barrow at A, and the NARL site at B.
The satellite image below shows what has happened. A five mile long chunk of ice (red circle) broke away from shore adjacent to the city of Barrow last week. The ice at Point Barrow (green circle) has not changed.
Current estimate from the University of Alaska is breakup on July 7.
Always happy to help out.
Judging by the large amount of ice debris (much of it dirty) drifting down the coast past Barrow today it looks like the breakup has started.
Sorry I meant to attach this: http://ak.aoos.org/op/webcam_archive.php?region=AK&name=Barrow&db=ABCam&yr=2010&mo=07&dy=04
Smokey says:
July 4, 2010 at 7:24 am
The problem is that people like Phil are causing substantial harm to society with their trumped up scare tactics.
No this is a ‘trumped up scare tactic’:
David Archibald says:
July 4, 2010 at 7:12 am
I have applied Butler and Johnson’s methodology to a number of other temperature records. Good correlations are seen in the CET, de Bilt, Archangel and four stations in the northeastern US. These latter four indicate a 2 degree C cooling for the latitude of the US-Canadian border.
I finished my lectures on the tour by saying that Canadian agriculture will be back to trapping beavers by the end of the decade. A 2 degree fall should reduce the Canadian grain growing area to next to nothing.
Phil,
I can’t imagine what it is that you are arguing about. The University of Alaska predicts that the ice will break up on July 7. Satellite photos from today show that the ice is intact.
Do you believe that there is a conspiracy by the University of Alaska, NASA and myself to fool people into believing that there is still ice present? Weird – to say the least.
Phil tries to wiggle out of the charge that he is fueling the scare tactics, which result in substantial harm to society.
But there is no wiggle room.
Below is a video showing the area around NARL from July 1 through July 4. There has been no visible change in the ice.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5y9tE_iHs84]
Have to say that it’s rather pointless with so many WUWT posts being posted about Barrow. If it melted completed and people were boiling potatatoes in the sea just off the beach because it was so hot then it would not mean much, same for if it was ice all summer.
Why are we getting so bogged down about one seaside town?
Steve, stop going on about Barrow and get back on track with the bigger picture, all this shows is you and Phil have different points of view about one small resort 🙂
Andy
Thanx for going back to Hitting each other with Data & Pics.
Maybe I should be sorry I brought up using outdated pics — since few have dates.
But the More Data the Better:
Numerically, Sea Ice Extent: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
Comparing – – – – 2007 – – to – – 2010
June 1-30 -65,150/day – 75,496
June30-July31 -98,610/day ?
July 31-minimum = 6,409/day drop, x 55 days in 2007
June 30-7/1 _ – 169,061 ____ – 56,093
July 1-2 ___ – 162,031 ____ – 82,969
July 2-3 ___ – 201,875 ____ – 47,656
July 3-4 ___ – 130,937 ____ ???????
July 4-5 ___ – 89,844
July 5-6 ___ – 93,125
July 6-7 ___ – 81,650
July 7-8 ___ – 74,844
July 8-9 ___ – 85,937
July 9-10 __ – 135,157
Ahead June 30 – – – no – – – – – – – 569,532 km2
Ahead July 3 – – – no – – – – – – – 249,062
Obviously, the catastrophic Hudson Bay Ice loss elevated 2010 last week, now 2007 gets the (temporary) boost.
Here’s a Cryosphere chart of the Central Arctic showing how the last 3 days’ clouds have curbed 2010 Growth
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html
You can check out the Beaufort & Laptev Sea Polynnya & their anomalies are still increasing.
But look at Wacky Concentration:
http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/amsre.html
Remember the Pips chart of FAST Clockwise Drift ? well the Multi year Ice looked like a Scythe & EVERYONE thought it would stay put.
Wrong.
It’s the WEATHER.
It’s swung around & the tip is snared south of the New Siberian Islands.
Will it sweep on, & cover the Polynnya ?
Or will the Polynnya, rapidly expanding North as in 2007, melt the HEAVY Ice by having that Ice come to IT ?
PS sorry about the chart glitch: adding more spaces:
Comparing ________ 2007 _____to____ 2010__
June 1-30 ______ – 65,150/day ______ – 75,496
June30-July31 ___ – 98,610/day ______ ????
Charles Wilson
You can’t read much, if anything, into short term fluctuations in the UIUC data. This time of year they have a difficult time distinguishing between meltwater on the surface and seawater.
AndyW
Have to say, you are wrong on all counts.
stevengoddard says:
July 4, 2010 at 9:16 am
Phil,
I can’t imagine what it is that you are arguing about.
I’m not arguing, just commenting on what’s happening today, you appear to be unable to accept that for some reason.
The University of Alaska predicts that the ice will break up on July 7.
Yes, they made that prediction on the 30th based on 3 day old data, they also pointed out that such predictions were unreliable beyond 3-7 days. Clearly they wouldn’t have any problem saying that breakup had occurred tomorrow.
Satellite photos from today show that the ice is intact.
To quote you from earlier ‘you must have X-ray eyes’, what are the dates and times of those images? I find the radar and camera a bit more informative, higher resolution and no clouds (although some fog for the camera).
Do you believe that there is a conspiracy by the University of Alaska, NASA
No, after all it’s their data I’m looking at.
and myself to fool people into believing that there is still ice present?
You on the other hand I’m not sure about.
Phil
The ice is still there. Your endless chatter has absolutely no effect on the ice.
stevengoddard says:
July 4, 2010 at 11:01 am
AndyW
Have to say, you are wrong on all counts.
Can I have a point for consistency? :p
Andy
stevengoddard says:
July 4, 2010 at 9:18 pm
Phil
The ice is still there.
So you say, any evidence to support that assertion?
Your endless chatter has absolutely no effect on the ice.
Nor does your continued refusal to look at the evidence.
From: AndyW on July 4, 2010 at 9:59 pm
Sure, why not? Here’s your point.
<8^|
Enjoy!
Phil,
How many times do I have to repeat the same data? The University of Alaska updated their breakup forecast this morning, and have pushed the date back to July 8.
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_breakup
The satellite photos which I already provided you from July 1-July 4 show no change in the ice.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5y9tE_iHs84]
Like Anu, you seem to be having difficulty interpreting very basic information.
New forecast for the break-up!
Yup, things are still looking so solid there they added on another day.
An indication of how solid the ice was at a certain time, thus indicating its possible longevity, can be found at the Barrow website by clicking on the Field Blog link. There one finds:
As noted on the Barrow site:
Thus about three weeks ago the ice was observed at that point to be of better quality than last year.
AndyW
The Barrow site provides unique quality and historical data. It is also located near the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, which have been hot spots over the last few summers. It is a uniquely important data point.
kadaka
I expect that the ice will last longer than July 8.
Their forecast is based on TSI received at the site, and under that criteria (only 100MJ/m^2 to their target) their forecast is almost certain to come up short this year. Note that in most years breakup has occurred after their forecast date.
stevengoddard says:
July 5, 2010 at 4:50 am
Phil,
How many times do I have to repeat the same data? The University of Alaska updated their breakup forecast this morning, and have pushed the date back to July 8.
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_breakup
I tried to post about this earlier but the post apparently didn’t make it.
The change in date was due to a computer problem causing the loss of data from earlier in the month (when I saw the changes in the SW flux graph this morning I knew something had gone wrong). Now that that has been fixed the breakup date has been revised to July 5th! The radar and website images from today indicate that breakup has probably started.
stevengoddard says:
July 4, 2010 at 9:18 pm
Phil
The ice is still there. Your endless chatter has absolutely no effect on the ice.
In fact UAF agree with me:
“4 July, 2010: break-out at NARL, ice present between Point Barrow and NARL
25 June, 2010: break-out downtown Barrow, ice present between Point Barrow and Browerville”
Exactly as I’ve been telling you here since your original Barrow post.
Looks like it depends on the exact location where they are measuring. A chunk of ice did break off NE of Barrow sometime in the last couple of days.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TR7TWniSUH4]
stevengoddard says:
July 5, 2010 at 10:47 pm
Looks like it depends on the exact location where they are measuring. A chunk of ice did break off NE of Barrow sometime in the last couple of days.
According to UAF:
“The coastal RADAR showed considerable landfast ice movement at NARL in the early morning hours of the 4th of July. This is the region of interest for the break-up forecast. In addition, the webcam overlooking the coast at downtown Barrow showed a large number of pieces of ice drifting by starting in the early morning hours of 4 July. Satellite images taken on the 5th of July show that the ice off the coast of NARL had disappeared. We are currently investigating when exactly the ice started to move at NARL, and whether there were any grounded pressure ridges involved. Our best guess at the moment is that break-up or break-out took place on the 4th of July. This is comparatively early (see below). The sealevel pressure reached a minimum at midnight, indicating potentially high sea level.”
Which is what I posted about here on the 4th.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/03/barrow-update/#comment-422847
Phil,
This post was from July 3, and the ice apparently broke up on the 4th. So you can go ahead and admit that the article was correct, rather than continuing to claim otherwise.
BTW – The ice is still intact just north of NARL.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bn86cAcXlIQ]