By Steven Goddard,
A few days ago I did a post Latest Barrow Ice Breakup On Record? Since then, the Barrow webcam has started showing open water, which has confused some of our friends into believing that the ice has broken up at the NARL site – located five miles to the northeast at Point Barrow.
The map below shows the city of Barrow at A, and the NARL site at B.
The satellite image below shows what has happened. A five mile long chunk of ice (red circle) broke away from shore adjacent to the city of Barrow last week. The ice at Point Barrow (green circle) has not changed.
Current estimate from the University of Alaska is breakup on July 7.
Always happy to help out.
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Charles Wilson says:
July 3, 2010 at 9:58 am
AMSR-E’s sideways jump was only July 2
2010 movement toward 2007 in the JAXA graph started on June 30.
The so-called “leading ice expert,” Veli Albert Kallio, said a few days ago that the Arctic sea ice could be entirely melted by August 8th.
You can see his insightful reasoning here. That’s right, a mere 36 days from now!
ClimateSanity
Steven Goddard
This was observed above;
‘The so-called “leading ice expert,” Veli Albert Kallio, said a few days ago that the Arctic sea ice could be entirely melted by August 8th. You can see his insightful reasoning here. That’s right, a mere 36 days from now!’
Can I hereby request the international rights for a staged showdown between you and Mr Kallio? I think a lot of people would pay good money to see the scientific fur fly.
Thats 20% each for you and Mr Kallio and 10% to Anthony to defray his Australian trip. Tickets will go on sale as soon as I get the nod. 🙂
tonyb
tommoriarty
Thanks for that link. Possibly the most clueless Arctic expert yet!
tonyb,
Maybe we should have a Tour de Arctic?
Lance Armstrong recovered from cancer to be a champion bike racer. I don’t know if it is possible to recover from long-term CO2 neurosis though.
“He has applied the same keen insight to the Arctic sea ice that he applies to his search for Atlantis.”
For those who care, here’s Topaz’s current Beaufort Sea ice thickness forecast, which includes the area near Pt. Barrow:
http://topaz.nersc.no/Knut/IceForecast/Beaufort/ice-forecast-03-Jul-2010_hice.jpg
Which correlates very well with the PIOMAS forecast made over a month ago:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/IDAO/seasonal_outlook.html
Also very helpful to look at the warm temps around the Arctic in general, and note especially the high pressure systems parked over each side (east and west) of the Arctic:
http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/arcisoTTPPWW.gif
You may also want to take a look at the current temperature anomalies for the Arctic:
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png
Where we see, (despite a possible growing La Nina) in the eastern Pacific, there is lots of anomalous ocean warmth in the Arctic.
Just some tidbits for you to consider as some of you are forecasting the March 31-June 31 rapid decline in Arctic sea ice extent to suddenly reverse…
Relax, Gates. It’s regional climate variability and nothing else.
I’ll bet you loved to scare yourself with ghost stories when you were a kid.
Is there a sewage treatment site at Pt. Barrow? If so, where does the effluent go?
Excerpted from: R. Gates on July 3, 2010 at 8:27 am
You might want to check that. Although Zhang and Lindsay have worked together and are both at the Polar Science Center, it looks clear they are using different methods. They have submitted separate predictions for the June edition of the 2010 SEARCH September Sea Ice Outlook (Pan-Arctic tab). Here’s Lindsay’s:
I see no mention on Linsay’s September prediction page of PIOMAS, the graphs do not resemble PIOMAS graphs as found on Zhang’s forecast page. Lindsay mentions “model data” and “regression model,” not PIOMAS. The closest thing I can see to a connection is on Zhang’s page it says: “Jinlun Zhang and Ron Lindsay” but for the SEARCH Outlooks Zhang’s name alone appears with his prediction while Lindsay’s is “et al.”
Thus it does not appear that Lindsay’s prediction is PIOMAS based.
For added fun, there’s another Outlook submission from PSC:
So there is another “et al” not using PIOMAS. Far as the 2010 Outlook is concerned, looks like Zhang is all alone in using PIOMAS.
(Side note about a long-time irritation: For those naming satellite missions, how could you have thought that “QuikSCAT” was such a great choice? “Fetch the Loperamide tablets!”)
TonyB,
Can I get a few percent for having broken the story?
Tom Moriarty
ClimateSanity
stevengoddard says:
July 3, 2010 at 8:12 am
I guessing that Phil is quarrelling over the exact location of the NARL site. ‘
I am not even sure that NARL still exists, but if Phil can produce a more precise location for where they are observing I am sure that will make him feel better.
Steve if you’re going to make a snarky post preaching to us where the NARL site is you really ought to know yourself! Here is a corrected version of your map:
http://i302.photobucket.com/albums/nn107/Sprintstar400/barrowmap23.jpg
From: stevengoddard on July 3, 2010 at 8:12 am
Could this information about Barrow be helpful?
Yes, there is a Google map.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
July 3, 2010 at 9:00 am
He had a photo that shows open water at barrow though there is no date on the photo. It can be seen in the satellite photo above there is still ice there.
I suggest you look more carefully, the photos I posted are date and time stamped.
I think Phil doesn’t see that he is not just saying Steven Goddard is wrong
Steve’s posts on this subject has been misleading and contained errors, he avoids responding when this is pointed out to him, and usually makes another post which just digs the hole deeper.
but also the satellite, and the University of Alaska too.
Nothing wrong with them, just Steve’s misrepresenting them, e.g.
according to Steve this shows the ‘temp at Barrow running well below normal’:
http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/histgraphall.gif
I can only assume that he misread the dewpoint for temperature.
He also posted: “Ice offshore of Barrow, Alaska is showing little signs of melt so far.”
And showed a graph to support this assertion, he failed to mention (notice?) that the site had stopped operating ten days before!
Etc.
R. Gates
PIOMASS is looking like a train wreck at this point. More soon.
tommoriarty
You can have 50% of my pay.
With La Nina starting to show I agree that things are slowing down-Joe Bastardi
is/was right, I will throw out 500 quatloos that the Ice Minimum is well above 2008,
and possibly at or above 2006…..
Steve Godddard,
Done deal.
Tom Moriarty
I don’t post here too often, but I read this site every day to learn as much as I can.
Over the last few months, I have become very annoyed by those who are posting here only to try and tear others down as opposed to creating a better scientific understanding.
Phil, you make a comment about Steve but YOU started the entire thread off by being rude.
Phil, please quit being immature and rude. You obviously do know something about this subject matter and as a person who is interested in learning as much as possible I value different views. Please keep it about the science.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says at 9:00 am: [ … ]
When I make a mistake here I admit it. Done it several times. It stings, but it makes me more careful. And we know that Steve G is a standup guy. But Phil….
When Phil makes a mistake, his M.O. is to disappear until the smoke clears, then re-appear later and resume criticizing others as if nothing happened.
That way, Phil – unlike everyone else – is never, ever wrong! ☺
mcates says:
July 3, 2010 at 4:10 pm
I don’t post here too often, but I read this site every day to learn as much as I can.
Over the last few months, I have become very annoyed by those who are posting here only to try and tear others down as opposed to creating a better scientific understanding.
Phil, you make a comment about Steve but YOU started the entire thread off by being rude.
I was not rude I pointed out that Steve had made a mistake, he knew what I meant because I’d told him about it before. I didn’t have time to correct his map at that point as I was leaving, when I came back I fixed it. Steve likes to counter criticisms of his postings by snarky ripostes such as this post, when you do that it behooves you to be accurate (which he wasn’t in this case, he later admitted he didn’t know where NARL was!)
Phil, please quit being immature and rude. You obviously do know something about this subject matter and as a person who is interested in learning as much as possible I value different views. Please keep it about the science.
It is about the science, Steve’s misleading posts don’t help anyone learn.
Phil,
Let me try again – “Temperatures in Barrow have been running well below normal.”
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/PABR/2010/6/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=3&monthend=7&yearend=2010&req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
Are you always so full of it?
Phil. says:
July 3, 2010 at 3:35 pm
So you’re telling me the satellite photo is wrong?
Phil. says:
July 3, 2010 at 3:35 pm
The date is underneath the photo, it was not on the photo where i was expecting it to be.
But the photo in not on Barrow. If it were it would mean the satellite photo is wrong. This cannot be true.
Phil. says:
July 3, 2010 at 3:35 pm
but also the satellite, and the University of Alaska too.
Nothing wrong with them, just Steve’s misrepresenting them, e.g.
There is no misrepresentation. Their forecast is for July 7. I am reading it at the site:
Current forecast for break-up: on July 7
same as is said above in the post, the same link provided above in the post:
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_breakup