By Steven Goddard,
A few days ago I did a post Latest Barrow Ice Breakup On Record? Since then, the Barrow webcam has started showing open water, which has confused some of our friends into believing that the ice has broken up at the NARL site – located five miles to the northeast at Point Barrow.
The map below shows the city of Barrow at A, and the NARL site at B.
The satellite image below shows what has happened. A five mile long chunk of ice (red circle) broke away from shore adjacent to the city of Barrow last week. The ice at Point Barrow (green circle) has not changed.
Current estimate from the University of Alaska is breakup on July 7.
Always happy to help out.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Two mistakes in two days, I’ll give you time to correct it to save embarrassment.
Wow! Do I see an implied correlation between Cloud Cover and Mean Shortwave Flux?
Send this to Svensmark!
Here is a satellite video showing where the ice is being observed, dated June 18 – July 3
As you can see, the ice off the city of barrow broke up last week, but the ice at Point Barrow remains intact. The current forecast is for July 7 breakup.
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_breakup
your first Barrow post did start with this claim:
“In my last post, we discussed how there has been no visible change in the landfast ice near Barrow, AK. during the last week.”
it was posted on the 26th of june. the ice radar did show, that a massive piece of ice broke away from the beach before Barrow on the 25th of June.
there was no landfast ice visible any longer on the Barrow beach cam, on the day you did post your article. (your picture from the web cam missed that, because of the fog. )
MODERATOR :
Can you add this video to the article, with the text “Satellite view June 18 – July 3”
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SPXDsM3NlE]
Thx
Apparently this update wasn’t simple enough for someone.
North Pole ice has taken a turn that wasn’t expected by thinning ice alrmists:
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
but was expected by Steven Goddard:
Gee Phil,
Sure do hope for mistakes, don’t we? Not as quick to correct yours, I’ve noticed. And you’re certainly not going to admit that the science in the area of climate is being done by real scientists who post here.
Me, I’m enjoying the live dialog, and yes, I enjoy that people who post aren’t perfect, and make mistakes, but then again, if you’re not making mistakes you’re not learning, and you certainly aren’t trying. In what area of endeavor do you make your mistakes, or have you stopped learning?
Phil. says:
July 3, 2010 at 5:50 am
“Two mistakes in two days, I’ll give you time to correct it to save embarrassment.”
Phil, that is not good enough. Unless you provide at least a few facts that indicate what information you used to determine that Steven has made a mistake, your comment is nothing more than unsubstantiated sniping.
Furthermore, the first mistake made by Steven was corrected almost immediately, within five minutes, without anyone hiding a thing and by providing a full record of the corrections that were made. You know that as well as anyone else on this thread knows. To ignore that correction is mean and unwarranted.
Sorry for the off-topic post, but this guy should be a climate scientist. When the facts don’t fit, instead of disproving his theory, they merely provide exceptions. In this case, the fact that his brain is apparently similar to serial killers means he himself was born to kill. If this guy really believes he has a psychopathic brain, maybe we should lock him up before he hurts anyone. Maybe he’s already killed somebody, and he’s trying to make excuses for it in case he gets caught.
http://www.newser.com/story/94083/neuroscientist-discovers-hes-a-born-killer.html
[Yes, off topic. These references should be posted in “Tips & Notes.” ~dbs, mod.]
Im predicting that NH ice will take a pretty drastic turn upside to end with a near normal min based a ice sea concentration (ie most of the let has occurred). THis will be a terrible year for the warmistas as they continue to try to push the agenda against the real data
I guessing that Phil is quarrelling over the exact location of the NARL site. ‘
I am not even sure that NARL still exists, but if Phil can produce a more precise location for where they are observing I am sure that will make him feel better.
Wordpress keeps changing the protocol for how you embed youtube videos in comments, but below is the latest satellite sequence. Hopefully it will work this time.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SPXDsM3NlE]
Very nice of Steve to clarify the situation in Pt. Barrow. Not sure how closely the date of ce break up in Pt. Barrow tracks with predicting any final sea ice minimum…or did Steve do a graph on this and I missed it? I think the PIOMAS shows the sea ice clearing completely away from the general coastal area about mid-July, but break up right in Pt. Barrow is not specifically pinpointed:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/IDAO/seasonal_outlook.html
So far things are tracking pretty well with the PIOMAS model. Also found this nice graphic related to other sea ice prediction from Germany:
ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/prediction/current_estimate.png
This prediction correlates very well with the other PIOMAS based summer minimum prediction:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/lindsay/September_ice_extent.html
I think we are seeing a slight pull back in the current Arctic anomaly from the -1.9 million range into the -1.3 to -1.5 million range for a week or two, but then the acceleration will continue with another big dip down to the -2.0 to -2.1 million sq. km by early August.
Any long range weather forecasts available for the Arctic? It would be interesting to see the forecast for the next 30 days and compare it against reality in early August.
wsbriggs says:
July 3, 2010 at 7:22 am
Gee Phil,
Sure do hope for mistakes, don’t we? Not as quick to correct yours, I’ve noticed.
I’ve noticed too.
This is from the post 8 days ago:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/26/latest-barrow-ice-breakup-on-record/#comment-417880
my response to him:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/26/latest-barrow-ice-breakup-on-record/#comment-417907
Apparently this was his response though he did not address my ID:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/26/latest-barrow-ice-breakup-on-record/#comment-419178
He had a photo that shows open water at barrow though there is no date on the photo. It can be seen in the satellite photo above there is still ice there.
I think Phil doesn’t see that he is not just saying Steven Goddard is wrong but also the satellite, and the University of Alaska too. Phil doesn’t see that it is he who is wrong.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
You can correct things now Phil to save embarrassment.
Apologies to all concerned, but so flipping what? It makes no difference to me if all the flipping ice melts in the Arctic Ocean. It would not be a crisis, not a problem, not something to fret about.
Global warming is not real. If it was, it would be a good thing. Warmer is better. The seas are NOT going to boil. If some sea ice melts, it’s no big deal. I’m not losing any sleep over it.
The real crisis is that the Government has an agenda of inflicted crises. It is more than rank incompetence. Look at the policies: an unguarded border, hopeless foreign wars, a collapsed economy, decadent schools, Let It Burn, Let It Gush, wolves at your door, tax to the max, you name it. Power feeds off social crisis. The Government manufactures disasters on purpose. They court and coddle saboteurs and alarmists. They hire morons and put them in charge. They strive for catastrophe.
Global warming is just another hoax to induce panic. The real catastrophes perped by the Government are bad enough.
Please excuse this interlude and return to the picking of nits regarding egregious junk science and the FEAR of imaginary nothings. There is value to the endeavors here and I appreciate them; it’s just that I think some context is useful now and then.
Stephan says:
July 3, 2010 at 7:55 am
In predicting that NH ice will take a pretty drastic turn upside to end with a near normal min based a ice sea concentration (ie most of the let has occurred). This will be a terrible year for the warmistas as they continue to try to push the agenda against the real data
______________________________________________________
No the “alarmists” will just see that the data that does not support their agenda never reaches the mass media. Those who own the presses control the news and they are all set to make a killing on carbon trading, carbon derivatives and “green technology” We are going to get carbon taxes, “green technology” subsidies and farming regulations crammed down our throats because:
1) more regulation means more taxes and bureaucracy so politicians and their hangers-on are happy
2) more regulation means more taxes and bureaucracy, that means more government borrowing and more interest revenue for the bankers
3)new regulations means only established corporations with deep pockets can compete. This means no fresh start up companies and the death of smaller companies.
The bankers, energy and food cartels are are going to push these regs for all they are worth and THEY control a large portion of the advertising bucks.
The “firing” of Derry Brownfield because he ticked off Monsanto is an illustration of what I am talking about.
Amino Acids: you got the wrong site: AMSR-E’s sideways jump was only July 2 & has dissappeared.
But NSIDC shows something Longer Term:
2010 is NOT dropping like 2007 did.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
An earlier poster gave numbers on this, but the first week of July, 2007, was spectacular.
The angle of Descent of 2010 hasn’t changed. Looks like it might continue parallel & below 2007 AFTER the drop but Certainly without the wide gap.
Norsex’s indexes have both years’ lines on top of each other again.
However comparing the Open Water spots (Polynnya) to other Years’ … 2007 & 2010 DEFINIATELY have the same 3 polynnya.
This means the 2 Great Melt-Offs DEFINATELY share El Nino Wind/Warmth as their Cause.
This El Nino was stronger AND Last Year had less ice than 2007’s Previous year (2006), so 2010 has thinner Ice to melt — especially around the Pole.
We likely will find out if Our pattern of Ocean Currents reverse if that area Heats in the Sun.
I sure Hope not.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e&mode=img&size=L&date=set&y=2007&m=7&d=2
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e&mode=img&size=L&date=set&y=2010&m=7&d=2
Note 2010’s Narrow Clear lane along Northeast Siberia, extending: the Baring Strait Polynnya Westwards: narrow now, but about to mushroom. Same as 2007’s narrow open water off Canada on June 26th exploded, though still less than 2010. New Siberian Islands’ Polynnya similar in both.
Note you can Plug in any Day by changing the url e.g. 2007&m=7&d=2 is 2007 month#7 day#2
Re Steve: The basis of this Post is correct.
But your Leadoff Photo is a Stock Pic (not current) I’ve complained about before.
& I cannot interpret your 3rd pic. What is Land ?
SO: This is the CURRENT Barrow radar http://ak.aoos.org/data/ice/radar/BRWICE/staging/radar/SIRwebimg.png
When I cited little Ice visible a few days ago, the 5-mile chunk was out of range.
It sure is visible now.
How to see the Barrow Radar:
1. That line is NOT the only ice: it is a Pressure Ridge 10 feet high or so & is drowning out the lesser reflection from Flat Ice around it.
So ignore its thinness, consider its BRIGHTNESS, & think: HUGE.
2. The “Ponds” are inland, & don’t count.
3. The remaining Landfast Ice is only a few hundred yards to either side of the Navy station. Couldn’t manufacture a sillier placement.
— it Still counts – – but it looks ridiculous.
“Mike D. says:
July 3, 2010 at 9:41 am
Global warming is not real. If it was, it would be a good thing. Warmer is better. ”
Mike, you are absolutely right.
Only insane people could turn this around like they have.
In spite of all the negatives that they claim, any sane person with half a brain knows that the “climate” is never static, and can see that the positives from warmer, far far outweight any negatives. We would be in one hell of a mess if the climate was getting colder.
Re: Jim on July 3, 2010 at 7:37 am
Now how can this possibly be off-topic in an ice thread when it deals with sublimation? 😉
People have core urges, you may call them instinctual motivations, compelling them to do things socially unacceptable. So they redirect those urges, those energies, into socially acceptable behavior. Classical example is surgeons, takes a certain mindset to be comfortable cutting into a living body, plus there is the “holding one’s life in your hand,” “the power to decide if someone lives or dies” aspect. These are of course traits that can be found in serial killers.
For this particular neuroscientist, I am reminded of the old thought about why people become psychologists, because they know they are messed up and are seeking how to treat themselves (disclaimer: of course it doesn’t apply to all of them…). Seems he sensed something was different about himself, got himself a career studying differences, specifically he spent the last twenty years studying the brains of killers per the article. Like someone from a family with alcoholics who decides not to even try drinking, he’s aware there could be a problem, now he’s also let others know of it, plus he has a socially acceptable outlet for those urges. Therefore, for all practical purposes, he’s rendered himself harmless.
Nowadays we have a great tool for sublimation, the internet. Seems there are always people, often frustrated ones, who have pent-up urges to do violent acts. Rather than smashing things, kicking dogs, and engaging in domestic violence, they can go online and “beat up” people mercilessly, all day long, whenever they want, even anonymously without fear of real-world reprisals. Some just lash out, some go for straightforward sadistic behavior. It can be argued the anonymity of the internet encourages this, but also that it is a good thing for society as it does provide an outlet, and it has long been acknowledged that if you have to rant then the internet is a good place to do so. Of course it’s not that good to be on the receiving end of even internet-type violence, seems some people need further sublimation.
Charles Wilson
Why look at the radar when we have visible satellite imagery?
R. Gates says:
July 3, 2010 at 8:27 am
For all the Petaflopping and Supercomputing power, it still takes a human being to sit down and look at what is going on.
PIOMASS is like Windows, it’s always promising to be the perfect operating system, but human have to suffer with it.
But, you should take heart: Soon, you can have a car that decides to switch lanes on you, and do other stuff that humans normally do. It might save you from a fatal accident, or it might put you in front of an oncoming Semi. Results will vary between a swoosh and a spot.
Take the bus, and leave the driving to us.
[snip – calling people “stupid” and “idiots” for expression an opinion is best done on other blogs, like RC. Clean it up or get off ~mod]
Charles Wilson says:
July 3, 2010 at 9:58 am
Amino Acids: you got the wrong site: AMSR-E’s sideways jump was only July 2 & has dissappeared.
You can see in the blue circle movement toward the 2007 line:
http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/6582/amsreseaiceextent.png
Charles Wilson says:
July 3, 2010 at 9:58 am
Amino Acids: you got the wrong site:
How is IARC-JAXA a wrong site?