I’m on my way back to the USA from my Australian speaking tour. I’ll be offline a couple of days. There are many, many, people who I owe a debt of gratitude to, for kindnesses big and small, but, there is one person to who I owe a debt that is much more prominent.
That person is Mr. David Archibald of Perth.
David has been my constant companion throughout the grueling continent crisscrossing pace of the tour, sorting out and correcting details, making sure I was where I needed to be when I needed to be, fighting some idiotic travel battles we faced, and most importantly, helping me hear. This was critical in Q&A after the lectures.
Without him, I would have been lost. He’s a gentleman, a scholar, and I count him as a friend. David, I cannot thank you enough.
That said, there’s something WUWT readers can do that can show gratitude on my behalf, while learning something in the process.
David spoke right along side me at each stop, and created an excellent presentation from the work he has done on his just printed book The Past and Future of Climate.
I’ll review this book in a future post, I’ve read a personal copy he gave me and it reads very well. Like WUWT, this book is heavy on illustrations. There’s not only some very interesting solar research, but some points on climate as well.
For example this illustration (from his slide show) is very interesting:
On my recommendation, if you wish, you can download an order form here:
The Past and Future of Climate – order form
He offers the book for $30AU post paid, and advises that he’ll also ship internationally as well. You can also visit his website at http://davidarchibald.info/
When I do my review, he’ll have an order form that can be used via PayPal, until then, direct by postal mail or PayPal via email contact are the only options.
Again my sincere thanks to David for his unfailing help, good cheer, and pathfinding. I hope WUWT readers can express thanks also.
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I’ve had a closer look at the solar cycle length and temperature connection using the central England record from 1766 (beginning of solar cycle 2). Then the picture changes somewhat. The trend is weakened. I let the computer try out the combinations of periods between 100 and 240 years using different start years, and I found that if you want a steep negative trend, then use data from 1885 to 2008. If you want to show the opposite, then use temperatures from 1784 to 1913 (SC4 – SC14) and you will get no trend at all. If anything, it’s rather a slight positive trend during that period. Interestingly, 1885 happens to be around the time that we begin to see temperature records for a significant number of places. So check any location and you’re likely to see the negative trend. I don’t think errors in the older part of the record can explain much. It’s highly unlikely that the degree of errors would correlate to the cycle lengths, so the errors should mainly show up as noise and not influence the trend very much.
In my opinion, then, this is definitely no “Rosetta stone” of solar-climate studies. I think it’s a waste of time looking for such a thing, anyway. A slight correlation might be real, but it’s not convincing enough to predict an inevitable temperature drop over the next decade. If the temperature doesn’t drop within a few years, I think we must conclude that the correlation, if any, is too weak to be useful. If the temperature does drop as advertised, then I’d say that the hypothesis may have some merit, but the correlation isn’t very strong.
My gut feeling is that this is just one of the 100 things that you need to take into account to predict future climate with some confidence.
Steinar Midtskogen says:
July 7, 2010 at 1:31 am
I’ve had a closer look at the solar cycle length and temperature connection using the central England record from 1766 (beginning of solar cycle 2). Then the picture changes somewhat.
Which is why DA didn’t use it – despite discussing the CET record in his literature. Remember that the CE region is only 200-300 miles from Armagh.
In my opinion, then, this is definitely no “Rosetta stone” of solar-climate studies.
To be fair to the original researchers (Butler & Johnson), I don’t believe they made any claims about their findings other than indicate that the regression analysis was suggestive of a link.
I still say that, given there is a cluster of ‘long’ cycles followed by a cluster of ‘short’ cycles, any trend in the temperature data will produce a correlation which may look persuasive.
For a little light relief from the current exchanges and no doubt those which are yet to come, I am very pleased indeed to report that today 7 July 2010 the town of Alice Springs located in almost the exact centre of the Australian continent experienced the (not yet massaged, not yet adjusted, i.e. strictly for real) coldest day on record since recordings commenced in 1878. The previous coldest day was in August 1966.
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 6, 2010 at 10:15 am
tallbloke says:
July 6, 2010 at 10:03 am
I said 0.5% and I meant 0.5%
Doh! 0.05% not 0.5%
lol, my mistake.
‘bow and weep’ would be more appropriate than ‘lol’
Now, what does that mistake do to this other mistake:
tallbloke says:
July 6, 2010 at 3:46 am
Well since the ocean has only increased in temperature by about 0.5% since global warming started […] we are indeed close to showing that we don’t need minor changes in trace gas levels to explain global warming.
———————————
Isn’t there some unfinished business here?
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 7, 2010 at 7:38 am (Edit)
Now, what does that mistake do to this other mistake:
tallbloke says:
July 6, 2010 at 3:46 am
Well since the ocean has only increased in temperature by about 0.5% since global warming started […] we are indeed close to showing that we don’t need minor changes in trace gas levels to explain global warming.
It means my idea is an order of magnitude closer to being correct. 😉
A chime from the Bells of Bernaerts: The climate is the continuation of the ocean by other means.
=======================
Anthony
A great pleasure meeting you at David’s home at the BBQ in Perth recently – I’ll catch up email and Facebook requests once I get back to Perth evening 11 July 2010 – and when you write a review of David’s book, do please send to me so I can publish it in AIG News. 🙂
Great you enjoyed the “Prawn” from the BBQ as well :-).
Best
tallbloke says:
July 9, 2010 at 5:46 am
Well since the ocean has only increased in temperature by about 0.5% since global warming started […]
It means my idea is an order of magnitude closer to being correct. 😉
The ‘since’ implies that it depends on 0.5% being correct, so, if 0.5% is not correct, then the conclusion cannot be correct either. Or is this an example where two wrongs make a right?
My goodness. What a bit of bad luck for me. All the best people coming out to see Mr Watts. And David Archibald amongst them. And here I am out of the country. I would consider myself a big fan of Mr Archibald, and as long as I remember this controversy running I seemed to be on the same wave-length as Mr Watts. Just too bad I didn’t get to see both of you. But really good news to see that another of my icons (Louis Hissink) got to see you both.
Onward.