Sea Ice News #10 – September Outlook

To: Amino Acids …
Lighten Up.
This is the Best SCIENCE site on the web because people throw Graphs & Charts at each other.
If we start to throw chairs: that’s a problem.
Science is about Questioning.
Both sides have to try REAL HARD.
A lot of this is about Questioning Sources — & some do not hold up.
Other sites just say “you can’t listen to them”.
…But they then give NO DETAILS.
Example: People will say: ‘GISS is awful. Here I’ve seen: Look at these Charts from Goddard/GISS versus Others’ – – or even one of GISS’s own.
GISS really is in charge Only of USA surface Data & has been quite good at REVISING their Results when, say, outsider Steve McIntyre challenged the demotion of 1934 as the USA’s hottest year. Globally, though, they accept Everything for the rest of the Globe, from the IPCC(even though Hansen’s hissed: “tenths of a degree, TENTHS OF A DEGREE ! ” on the Letteman Show indicated even HANSEN personally prefers the Satellite Data over the Global Surface Temps his own GISS site features – – but there Is no other SURFACE Data Set for the Globe, since they Hijacked the Old sets sent to Sir Issaac Newton’s Greenwich for centuries, and Locked them in the Vaults of East Anglia University ). And, GISS makes these Glitzy Presentations which, when you click on their High Resolution maps of the Arctic: you see just a couple little spots & blank Space — they are just bridging Data from 2 or 3 sites (Eureka, Spitzbergen) over the Whole Arctic – – most of the European ones showing Temp DECREASES somehow got Closed, or excluded from the IPCC maps (like most of Canada).
Currently: Steve Goddard is into – – Anything new that OPPOSES A BIG-MELT.
That’s his JOB (scientifically).
Every ICE Index was Up in March, & He looked Good.
Now every Extent, Area & Volume site is not just Low, but RECORD LOW except 2 of the 4 NORSEX charts ( both of which lines are now TOUCHING the 2007 record line ), and an index he put together recently – – his Pips-derived Volume.
And.TomP recalculated that …
– – though I want to see TomP’s Calculations, especially How he got it — not just the end Product.
By the way, Tom’s Graphs were a Treasure: If I missed his Calculations/ and/ot Method, can anyone point to it ?
Steve put his Pips Method out.
And …
I roasted him for it.
Well, parts of it.
But it’s what you are SUPPOSED TO DO.
Everything on the line.
Nothing Held back.
But in CLOUDS, Steve has the Hot Hand.
More CLOUDINESS could REVERSE the slides in every Indexes.
And though I always mentioned it as 1 of 3 Parts of the 2007 Melt – & the one I was uncertain of …
– – Steve FOUND A SITE WITH CURRENT DATA & A Forecast of LESS Sunshine coming up.
He even enlightened us about Cloud Forecasting’s Reliability – – which is:
– – that it Ain’t.
The El Nino is fading (see http://www.drroyspencer.com, as above)
.. maybe the Clouds will win.
You better have a sense of Humor when you forecast the WEATHER.

GettingWarm,
I’m sure you believe in the propaganda about CO2. Posting Regg’s comments onto this board, when it was clearly debunked by Steve Goddard. Nice work Steve!
-Snowlover123

Pardon me for being a skeptic about the “arctic ice mass is increasing theory”, but the last time Mssr. Goddard had a disgreement with NSIDC he turned out to be working with incorrect assumptions.
On the other hand sailors who navigated the arctic last winter reported that what >zero year ice they saw was rotten. What is “rotten ice”? One ice breaker which has a top speed of 13.7 knots in clear water got slowed all the way down to 13 knots in rotten ice.
Looks like the McLure – Parry deepwater northwater passage is well on the way to opening up this summer. The Canadian Ice Service shows sea ice concentration down from 90% to 35% since May 14.
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/IceGraph/CwtClimChtSrvlt?region=cwa04_01&nrmlsta=1971&nrmlend=2000&sizex=1230&sizey=780&lang=en&showwarn=false&plotnormal=true&plotmedian=false&plottrend=false&plothilite=false&plotwarn=false&plotscaled=false&cachelife=60&errorpage=/IceGraphDisplay-GraphdesGlacesDisplay.jsf&charttype=awss&ssnsta=2010&ssnend=2010&histdtsta=0514&histdtend=0625&format=ct
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/IceGraph/IceGraph-GraphdesGlaces.jsf;jsessionid=8055FF7CEEB5D6743CFDE8F589EB2B72
Goddard’s comment about the solstice being past could mislead uninformed readers into thinking that the melt season is over. In fact it is just moving into high gear. The maximum melt point is usually in September, sometimes stretching into October.
When the Manhattan tried ramming through McLure – Parry in September 40 years ago it got stuck repeatedly in 20 meter pressure ridges. The world has changed, in our lifetimes.

Julienne, I quite understand the temperature gradient. That includes trade winds and the Coriolis effect.
Might we agree on a null hypothesis basis? Understanding solar radiation, Coriolis, GPS topography, our overall stratified atmosphere, and seasonal axis tilt parameters to be relatively constant, Earth’s climates are a function of a chain comprised of natural weather systems generated over trade wind warmed, neutral or cooled oceans and especially equatorial oceans, then further impacted by topography over land areas. This chain is impinged upon by natural internal energy oscillations in these links that lead to long and short periods of weather pattern variability change.
Now add just the human source increase in CO2 to the above. With respect, tell me (see below for discussion ideas) how the human sourced increase in CO2 concentration has somehow developed more power than natural parameters on this chain (IE disprove your null hypothesis).
As a side note in this debate re: your concern over my manners on this blog. Your fall back argument to send me back to some basic textbook is not good debate technique, does not prove your case, and is far more disrespectful than my questioning of your beliefs.
So I challenge you to make a clear explanation about both potential drivers (the natural chain, and human sourced increase in CO2) of weather pattern variability change. By explaining your position on both, (you must rule out other potential causes of your hypothesis in order to develop your position into a theory) you will have made a stronger statement:
Human Sourced CO2 driver
1. Human sourced CO2 increase has changed SST’s through LW re-radiation increase, which in turn has disrupted the temperature gradient, which in turn has changed oceanic and weather systems, thus warming the Arctic ocean, as well as other oceans, yes or no, and if yes, how: state mechanism/mathematical proof, and show historical data graphs of these parameters.
2. Human sourced CO2 increase has changed land/air temperatures through LW re-radiation increase which in turn has disrupted the temperature gradient, which in turn has changed oceanic and weather systems, yes or no, and if yes, how: state mechanism/mathematical proof, and show historical data graphs of these parameters.
The Null Hypothesis: Natural intrinsic random and oscillatory drivers
1. Natural oscillations (which include the extremes of these oscillations), both long and short term, drive oceanic SST and weather pattern variability change, yes or no, and if yes, how (state mechanism/mathematical proof, and show historical data graphs of these parameters).
In order to prove your hypothesis, you must examine and prove/disprove the entire chain of events at each link on both sides of the debate, or else your hypothesis is still null.
So we are faced with three scenarios:
1. If CO2 proves to be more powerfully correlated with observed data at each link, the hypothesis is not null.
2. If both drivers are equal in correlation at each link, the hypothesis is null.
3. If natural variation is more strongly correlated than CO2 at each link, the hypothesis is null.

Charles Wilson
Remember when David Letterman was just a fun guy and didn’t talk about politics all the time?

Re: Amino Acids in Meteorites
Well, I generally just read this site …
I Comment a lot now because I think it’s an Emergency. … Possibly.
But even “just” a 1-in-4 to 1-in-8 chance of Personal Death of ME, gives a lot of incentive.
I’ll write on something else if it is more Dangerous.
Thanx, by the way: Without the based-on-facts Criticism here, I’d likely not have founded My Outlook professionally enough to get into the Sea Ice Outlook.
It’s Official now – – it is up to Obama.
(Arrrgh)
Years ago, I determined to Assess ALL major Threats (e.g. Nukes, etc.) Here are two I wrote several years ago:
/ = means Divided by:
(a)ABRUPT CHANGE DAMAGE : 10% of Abrupts times $700,000 B loss to USA ( = most of people killed, etc. )
+ other 90% of Abrupts ~ = not 9 times, but say: equal to that = $ 140,000 Billion per Abrupt Change
(b) SMOOTH CHANGE Change Damage = Farmers have to move, etc. = $ 500 B.
Time at Risk ———————————————- next 33.3 years ————————–
next 33.3 years: Risk Arctic Sea
(a) = 1% x .$ 140,000 Billion/33.3 years = $ 420 B/year (1 big Disaster)
(b) = 100% x $ 500 B / 33.3 years = $ 15 B/year ( weather change )
[ PS … (b) is: that I felt the Lack of Ice: drying out the Tran-Mississippi: was near Certain,
but Melting off ALL in 1 Year & so inducing Ocean Current Reversals & 300 mph winds
= 1% overall = 1 in 3300 EACH year (1 in 3330) – – – I guess we hit the Un-Jackpot ]
Risk: 50 years General Warming = 1% Abrupt Change over first 50 years,
(Each Successive 50 years = 3% , then 6%, 10, 20, 30, 50%) $ = that % times
(a) __ % x $ 140,000 B. /50 years = % of DISASTER = $28 B/year for 1% , etc.
(b) __ % x $ 500 B/50 years = Gradual changes BUT TIMES 10 AS REPEATED CHANGES = $ 1 B/yr.
[As you can see, This was my ANTI-AGWer argument – – I felt the other problems — $29 B — too small for the 100s of Billions/year to solve them
— the Arctic ? $ .02 Billion for a Sulfur Hose looked fine by Me. A 21,000:1 return on investment. PS: I like to refer to $20 million as 2 Billion cents. Keeps everything in the same Units.
Here’s the full list] :
Disasters Rated: ($Billion Dollars per year, Average)
1. $2700 Billion [ /year ] = Atlantic Bomb (ie 270,000 /1% chance PER YEAR)
— Solution: better Satellites
[PS: or, had we Not already done so: INVADE IRAQ — years later, a shame-faced French study found Niger’s buyer REALLY WAS Iraq ! — that is where all Sadaams Foreign Exchange we all assumed would buy Raw Material for the Chemical Factories went — we found the factories — fighting for them for over a year after the invasion. He did not turn into a Nice Guy — he just Concentrated his ca$h on the MAIN, CENTRAL NECCESSITY. . His secondary source for Raw Uranium was Iran, with all those mines & more material than they can even low-level refine. Thus NO invasion of Iraq, & the East Coast would Already be dead. Since he HAD the X-ray mirrors to detonate an H-bomb & then this higher temperature detonates ALL the Raw Uranium, ie all the U-238 too, & his was the Only fruity country with this capability, HE was the USA’s biggest Risk by several THOUSAND times. At the time, it was thought Libya was 80% plus & Iraq only a 10% possibility, but: Libya had been “purging” itself for 2 years, Iran had so much they weren’t buying, & N.Korea didn’t have the Money: SURPRISE.: GWBush did something RIGHT. I guess that makes 1. But a BIG one. ]
2. $2100 B/yr = 10-30 H-Bombs over U.S. cities
— Solution: BOOST Phase SDI
[ PS: I wanted to make it JOINT, with Russia. They’ve already offered to PAY for Radars in a Joint Defense, as part of their Opposition to GWB’s ‘Defense of Europe – – ONLY’ ABM plan. ]
3. $1400B/yr = Present Value of missed Growth from Science Cuts
— +$50-80 Billion/year non-classified Research
–Space/Science solves #1 saving 2700, #3 saving 1400, #4 =1050, 800, 400, 2 of the ca.200’s, 82 + helps #2=2100 & #8=600
4. $1050 = Super-Disease
— Space Colony to solve 100 times faster + Ground Water Heat pump for all new furnaces
5. $1000 = Natural Gas Runs Out ‘ala California (& it almost happened in April 2003)
— Salt Mine Storage (75% usable, “real” working gas is now 33% of Storage bassed on 2003)
— we can increase margin 30% & actually have Leftovers to SELL.
6. $800 Billion = LIFESPAN DECREASE
— EXPLORATION (in 100 years of statistics , LIFE jumps, 8 years AFTER) (in effect: NEED MORE NASA)
7. $700 B. Traffic Accidents (ca $30 Billion of this is paid by Transit-users)
— Electric Roads will allow an “Interlligent road” — while recharging batteries as we drive. PS this is 1990’s updated = 300 damage to people & 400 to car; 2004 NS(?Rumsfeldites) say “only” 241 (with 41 (!) damage to cars? — what are they smoking?).
8. $600 Billion = Climate Change with 300 mph WIND (NB Ocean Current Turnover
9. $400-600+ Natural Gas SUPPLY Shortage> Note: chance is times 100% as is here NOW
— Solution: TANKERS to Alaska for non-Prudhoe Gas.
— PS: includes GASOLINE increases from difficulty refining without Natural Gas.
10.. $400 Billion: Social Security Shortfall
— Solution: high GROWTH PER PERSON via RESEARCH $.
11. $330 Billion = OIL SPIKE: of $35 Dollars (ie $22 + 35)
— Solution: Platinum, Loan Guarantees (eg for Gas TANKERS), Squirt Gas [CH4] into Coal Plants)
12-16: $100-300 B each: DRUGS, CRIME, ALCOHOL, POLLUTION, ASTEROIDS:
? = 1000 for five
Respectively: Solutions: Foot Police & Coast Guard/same/ALCOHOL: wish I had a clue/PLATINUM from Asteroids & Gas Squirting into Coal Plants, as in #11 /a NASA search for 70m Beta Taurids
17. $82 B. = Peak Oil — as this is 30 years in Future, reduced 50% per Decade for “Present Value” … BUT likely the “Flex Point” where production, while NOT declining, STARTS to level out (as happened to Canadian Gas in about 2000), will hurt nearly as much & I believe the DOOMSAYERS” earlier dates may well apply to it coming earlier for the “LIGHTER” CRUDES … we may already have started to hit that.
Solution (for the situation circa 2050) = Electric Roads, with Electricity from SPACE COLONIES (“O’Niel Program”)
18. $44 = Terror: if a WTC = $220 B, every 5 years
— sending War to Iraq is working — sort of. Problem is that cure is 20 times the cost of the Disease.
19. $27 = Canary Island Landslide
… asphault curtain as below Dams, & may delay UNTIL water table starts to shift to wet the crucial slope.
20. $17 Billion/year = Volcanos
20. ~ Hurricanes: mostly = New Orleans floods: 3 years of past 45 had >20′ surge x $200+B.
Cost to stop: Barrier Islands $3B in 1 year [ PS: SEE HOW JINDAL SNUCK THAT INTO THE BP RESPONSE ]
+ Army outer Wall 15′-25′-40’ = $6-13-25B + anti-overtop =$ 2+B
Total = 3+6+2 = $11 B.
[ less than Current Plan to heighten Inner Wall from 14 to 16 feet. And a Bonus: it would work ]
So normally I write on Military Matters, and Space: e.g. SAMO on Space.com.
So: Don’t give up trying to poke holes in anyone’s ideas: this is a Save-the-World Science Site. As all Science is.
You sounded like you feel it is just registering an Opinion ?
Much more than that.