Sea Ice News #10 – September Outlook

And yet we are told that 2010 will beat 2007 in terms of melt. As you say, we will not know until September, and the Arctic basin looks much healthier than 20 years ago

Steve–
So you’re issuing a new forecast of 5.5M km/2, superceding your original 5.8M km/2?
My feeling on the matter of issuing multiple predictions for the same melt season is I don’t care to do it. My 6.0-6.2M km/2 (made in late March or early April) may turn out wrong, but I don’t want to be like the Solar guys and forever chasing a series of predictions. I made one for this year, I’ll follow developments until extent minimum, learn whatever lessons are to be learned, and apply them to next year’s prediction.

I am an avid “ice watcher” and appreciate this the comprehensive yet concise data set here, with not too much analysis and prognostication.
I watch because it is clear we are not in a “death spiral” and I can use the info to console those that believe polar bears are indeed going to perish in their lifetime due o arctic ice loss.
It does seem to me though that the continued gradual warming during this interglaciel will lead to gradual ice loss at the poles. So “record ice extent lows” are to be expected. The thing is the record only has to be slightly lower to be a record but its not much and not much to worry about!

If the extent in 2006 this time of year was any kind of predictor of what will happen in September as compared to 2007 then we’re in for a minimum that beats 2003!
But it seems that there’s almost nothing in the data of any year that predicts 3 months later for any time period that I can tell. We just have to wait….

Global sea ice area is now plunging well below zero on cryosphere , don’t expect it to go much positive for the rest of the year as the Arctic drop takes the rains and the Antarctic rise peters out against the Southern ocean winds and currents.
Will the Arctic turn upwards like 2006 again? I doubt it, the guesses of 5.5 and 5.7 of WUWT and Steve G. I think will be shattered. Sub 5 is my esitmate.
No recovery, R. Gates is likely to be closer.

It looks to me that sea ice will make another record low this summer. People need to get off the oil addiction. The polution and warming is killing the planet.

I have a question. Who modifies your NSIDC images?

Steve, I think it’s a bit misleading to say that the ice is healthier today than 20 years ago by looking at ice concentration from two days from different years. Just yesterday I looked at ice concentrations from this year and 2007 on the 22nd of June and 2010 showed lower ice concentrations (and we all know how 2007 turned out). There is a lot of daily variation sometimes in the ice concentration fields from weather effects. So personally, I wouldn’t make comparisons between a day from two different years and read much into it.
I’m glad you included mention of circulation/winds in this post. The Arctic Dipole has been implicated in the 2007 ice loss, and this pattern is happening now. If it persists the entire summer like it did in 2007, then I think the September ice extent will fall below 5.5 million sq-km. Note just based on survival rates of ice from different ice age classes during the last several years, we also predicted a 5.5 million sq-km value. But a weather pattern like in 2007 (with 2007 ice survival rates) would yield around 4.3 million sq-km. Interestingly, J. Maslanik whose ice age product we use, is predicting more like 4.3 million sq-km based on the southerly location of some of the old ice (making it more prone to melt out).
But like you say, it’s too soon to tell. Would be good though to mention to your readers that June 2010 is a new record low in the satellite data record…
regards, Julienne

Sea ice, schmee mice.