May UAH Global Temperature Anomaly – holding steady

Dr Spencer, do you expect the lower tropospheric temperature to drop further from the peak earlier this year given El Nino has ended and we may be headed into a La Nina? Also what type of lag time would you expect between the SST temp drop and the lower tropospheric temperature drop.
I realize this is hand waving so I am only expecting a SWAG.

Just past apogee.
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crosspatch says:
June 4, 2010 at 9:25 am
The atmospheric temperatures will likely lag the SSTs by several months if past behavior is any indication.
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Thank you for answering my question Crosspatch.

Cold wet rain here in NE Oregon- May’s been a bust. I’d say Nina’s here….

So the globe is warmer by 0.2 deg C than in 1988. I can live with that.

@crosspatch – there is not much lag between SST and CRU/UAH record:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1998/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1998/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998
With the end of 1998 Nino, all datasets fell down simultaneously, lagging the NINO index which peaked in 97/98.

Henry: (at 09:46)
how many years constitutes a correct sample size (and give your reference) ?

@Henry: (at 09:46)
An e-mail I received from professor "Stephen H. Schneider" in September 2008, say's 30 years is a significant sample size. He didn't like the e-mail I sent him showing that HadCRUT3 had showed no warming for a decade.
E-Mail reply from "Stephen H. Schneider"

Thanks for the comment. It is irrelevant what happens in a decade from
a  global climate point of view. Had we chosen the decade from 1992 to
2001 it would look like global warming is rising off the charts. WMO
defines climate statistics over thirty year blocks, and that is
"unequivocal" warming, as noted by IPCC. Read the Working Group 1
Report where all the data in various time blocks can be found.
Cheers, SHS
Stephen H. Schneider
Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies,
Professor, Department of Biological Sciences and
Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment
Mailing address:
Yang & Yamazaki Environment & Energy Building - MC 4205
473 Via Ortega
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305

Again:
There has been no significant warming from 1990 till the present.
The temperatures of 1991, 1992, 1993 and 1994 would have been the same or even higher then the temperatures in 1990 if Pinatubo wouldn’t have erupted (there was a long El Niño from end 1991 to in 1995).
Also El Chichon dimmed the impact of the big El Niño of 1982-1983 and probably had a cooling effect for a couple of years after that.
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadat/images/update_images/global_upper_air_thumb.png

Alec Rawls…
I’m sitting here laughing my you know what off…
A dirtbag is um er um
cough cough choke… er um
As Shakespeare once said so eloquently
A rose by any other name, is still a rose…
But in the case of Hansen the smell is more like fertilizer rather than a rose. 🙂

So what do we make of this? We have found that the (apparent) onset of La Nina has improved fishing conditions here in Fiji, and my records do show some correlation between the Southern Oscillation Index and our Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) for albacore – something that Willis, as an old fisherman may be interested in. If there is any interest, please do email.
Look at the ‘sea sub-surface’ tab http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
The map for the 5 days ending 24 May shows a large volume of cooler than normal water below the surface of the tropical Pacific, with anomalies more than 4°C cooler than normal for this time of the year. The central sub-surface has cooled a further 1°C from two weeks ago.