From The Declining Spring Snowcover Department
Experts tell us that spring snowcover has seen rapid declines in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 20 years. As of today, western US snowpack averaged by state is 137 percent of normal.
According to USDA Snotel measurements, Arizona is 446% of normal. California is 131% of normal. New Mexico is 184% of normal. Nevada is 126% of normal. Montana is 104% of normal.
Lake Powell water levels have risen four feet in the last month and are 56 feet higher than they were on this date in 2005.
http://lakepowell.water-data.com/graphingengine.php?graphing=1+back_days=150
Salt Lake City just had its latest spring snow on record. Mammoth is expecting a big Memorial Day snow storm.
The Obama administration (42% approval) forecasts heat and drought for the western US. Let’s see how they are doing!
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/wrcc/WaterTDeptWRCC.png
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/wrcc/WaterPNormWRCC.png
Apparently Arnie’s efforts to stop global warming have been successful.
Schwarzenegger has emerged as a national leader on global warming, the one whose name most frequently comes up in foreign capitals when international cooperation on reducing carbon emissions is discussed. Al Gore might have a Nobel Prize, but Schwarzenegger heads a state that, if it were a country, would rank among the 10 biggest economies in the world. Given the Bush administration’s unwillingness to seriously address the problem, Schwarzenegger’s initiatives to mandate hard emissions targets and set up carbon-trading schemes with other states and Canadian provinces make him this country’s most forward-thinking governor, and its greenest Republican.
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tonyb says:
May 26, 2010 at 12:07 am
Still unusually good snow at Cairngorm mountain in Scotland after record winter snow fall
Wow, I didn’t know this was true in Scotland too. Maybe we really are heading into a time of cooling. with warming having ended in 2001.
Steven,
I’ll start by reiterating what others have already pointed out. Your calculations are in need of some serious TLC. If Arizona is 446% of normal than Nevada must be 1 million gabillion percent of normal.
Inches of snow is a near-meaningless number. As someone else mentioned, snow water equivalent is the only number water managers really need. Reporting a number like inches of snow is about as useful as reporting rainfall in minutes.
I have also pointed out to you (and most everyone else on this blog) your propensity for confounding weather and climate. Far more robust analyses of snowpack (i.e. SWE) have been done using data covering a much longer time period.
http://tenaya.ucsd.edu/~dettinge/barnett08.pdf
I could go on and on about the importance of not only SWE, but the timing of snowfall and precipitation in the Western U.S. (one of the numerous factors not captured by your May 26th, 2010 snapshot and incompetent calculations), but I’ve found that a fundamental understanding of the principles of ecology and water resource management pretty much absent on this blog. At any rate, here’s what the NWCC thought about the amount and timing of snow and precip a few weeks ago:
ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/support/water/westwide/streamflow/wy2010/strm1005.gif
It will be interesting to see what the monthly outlook reports have to say for April. At any rate, there are much more interesting and informative maps and data out there. Maybe don’t be in such a rush to slap the first thing you see on a web page.
Gail Coombs 4:41
Temperature map for the US yesterday below, heat warnings in Toronto today. Snow forecast for areas of Alberta tomorrow.
http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/MaxTempp1Day.html
Hoppy says:
May 26, 2010 at 6:15 am
If you’re such a stickler for correct handling of data then how can you trust the Michael Mann Hockey Stick Graph, GISTemp methods, or any of the other “trick” global warming stats??
It’s always Marcia, Marcia says:
Sure Ross, there isn’t anything that means anything in this global warming world…… except co2 is going to bring disasters to the world. We know the drill.
sandyinderby says:
You’ve seen Anthony’s figures now let us see yours.
—
No need for figures, IMO the maths is wrong. I’m skeptical of the method.
e.g say we have n states, where the snow cover percentage for each state is s(n) and the area of each state is a(n).
Total snow cover is therefore sum{ s(n) * a(n) } / sum { a(n) }
Averaging by state is sum{ s(n) } / n which will give a different result.
Or have I made a mistake?
Please continue to show the failed predictions of global warming. It tastes sweet.
The truth shall set you free.
Phil M. says
May 26, 2010 at 5:40 pm,
Smart guy that you fancy yourself to be, why don’t you write an article for WUWT? I don’t think you will, because your alarmist globaloney would be debunked faster than you can say “robust.”
Steve Goddard writes interesting and informative articles. If you think you can do better, give it a try. I think the result would end up looking like Monckton’s debate opponents. But maybe that’s just me. Show us you can do better than Steve. I double dog dare ya.
Milwaukee Bob says:
May 26, 2010 at 10:23 am
PeterB in Indianapolis said at 9:08 am
Everyone should remember, NO ONE experiences “climate”.
Well, actually we do. While technically “climate” is a made up condition found only in the mind of homo sapiens and their off-spring – computers, thereby making it impossible to “experience” as it doesn’t exist, it is by definition and in reality an average of weather. Therefore, when experiencing weather we ARE – experiencing climate.
That’s an interesting way to put it Milwaukee.
p.s., I typed Milwaukee with the correct pronunciation in mind, Ma-wau-kee. 🙂
BillD says:
May 26, 2010 at 2:32 pm
I also read somewhere that the Jan through April global temps are the highest in the modern record.
Should have provided a reference, don’t you think? Would help people believe you.
Ross M says:
May 26, 2010 at 5:54 pm
You’ve missed the point of the post, and you’ve missed the “maths” too. You’re reading something into the “maths” that doesn’t even have to be there. But that’s ok. After reading through the comments I see others have missed the point too.
It’s always Marcia, Marcia says:
May 26, 2010 at 5:34 pm
tonyb says:
May 26, 2010 at 12:07 am
Still unusually good snow at Cairngorm mountain in Scotland after record winter snow fall
Wow, I didn’t know this was true in Scotland too. Maybe we really are heading into a time of cooling. with warming having ended in 2001.
__________________________________________________________________________
It is not just the USA, Scotland, New Zealand, Spain, Russia but also China and the worse hit was Mongolia where six million head of livestock died this winter.
But do not worry, The Klimate Psychientists are telling us this year will be the “warmest ever”
Al Gored says:
May 25, 2010 at 11:15 pm
How much is rotten snow?
This calls for a first hand look at the status of the trout stream in Western Colorado.
Without even being asked, I will venture forth this weekend to see what is happening over on the western slope.
Jack Simmons,
Report back. And remember:
Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and he will sit in a boat all day, drinking beer.
How to build a guillotine:
http://www.madehow.com/Volume-7/Guillotine.html
Don’t forget the all important quality control step.
Wayne Delbeke says:
May 26, 2010 at 5:51 pm
Gail Combs 4:41
Temperature map for the US yesterday below, heat warnings in Toronto today. Snow forecast for areas of Alberta tomorrow.
http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/MaxTempp1Day.html
__________________________________________________________________________
Wunderground temperatures for my city were “adjusted up” the next day from 1F to 5F last year. I got suspicious so I checked. Also all the old records got purged and are no longer available on line. The oldest year I can get now is 2004.
Normally I see snow once every four or five years. This year we had FIVE snowstorms and Washington DC got plastered when Obama tried to come home from Copenhagen.
I ran through all the available data for May for my city on another post. In May, 20 days were 90F or above in 2004 – three or four were 98F and I think another seven were above 95F. So far this is the coolest May for my area in the records available to me with three days at 91F and all the rest below 90F. Also the corn is only six inches high instead of the usual waist high at this time of year. (part of that was lack of rain in April)
That is the data I am basing my statement on for MY city (actually county since I live in the boonies) I think it is the midwest that may have been warmer this spring but I am not sure. It certainly is not my area. Heck it is almost June and I still haven’t bothered to use the A/C.
BillD
Satellite temperatures at 14,000 feet have been the highest on record. Roy Spencer explained this as being due to El Nino. Had Crut has surface temperatures at #5, and GISS data is corrupted by unsupportable data handling techniques.
Why wouldn’t you bother to mention what an El Nino tends to do for snowfall in the America Southwest? Late spring snowfall is common even for places like Colorado during El Nino phases. This post is very misleading, and employs the same tactics as seen in alarmist reportings.
Too bad the snowfall didn’t happen when the ski resorts were still open though…
tonyb says: Couldn’t have anything to do with the tiny number of stations in Canada artificially skewing the temperature in the World’s second largest country could it?
Well, yes. But I have a solution:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/05/19/cure-for-global-warming-invade-canada/
The maths used in this post make no sense whatsoever. Example: state a) has 100% coverage at 100 sq.m, state b) at 10 sq. m.
If on a given year, state a has 50% that’s 50 sq. m. If that same year state b has 200%, that’s 20 sq.m. The total coverage would be 70sq. m, which is about 64% for both states combined. However, using Goddard’s method, one would find 125%. Percentages can not be averaged by themselves.
RR Kampen says: “Experts tell us that spring snowcover has seen rapid declines in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 20 years. As of today, western US snowpack averaged by state is 137 percent of normal.”
How large a fraction of the Northern Hemisphere comprises the western US?
Why suggest this fraction is 100%?
Perhaps because the western US is where the mountains are and this time of year the surviving snow is in the mountains?
Is it really that hard a concept? Maybe you wanted to go looking for snow in Florida or Texas? Sheesh…
Also, as someone who lives in the west, like Anthony, I can add that we tend to be Very Aware of the western snow as it tends to determine how much food we can grow and how much water we have to drink. It is a very important local and regional issue. ( Oh, and our Federales have managed to kill off a lot of farming by cutting off the water to “save” a smelt that most likely would do just fine anyway; so there is a major economic impact in California, where Euro-style Eco policies have driven us to bankruptcy and a 12%+ “official” unemployment rate with the odds of 25% real rate approaching certainty. (Yes, I’m an economist and we know the difference… in several counties, such as those farm counties, the rate is over 25% and among young males and especially minorities hits 50%+)
So yeah, we care a great deal about how much snow is in the mountains of the west.
Not so much about the lack of snow in Alabama or South Carolina… or Florida (though they did have a problem with “raining iguanas” this last frozen winter…
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/06/cold-killing-iguanas/ )
Phil M, there are plenty of people (commenters and posters) on WUWT who are quite competent at water resource issues. You won’t make any friends with that tone you adopted.
As just one (of many) resources, California’s lakes are already brimming this year, and the snow has not melted. Water managers are running water through the dams and into the oceans at prodigious rates. see
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/current/RES
jeff brown
It seems to me that excess spring snowpack is not the same as a spring snowpack deficit. But apparently I am not trained properly in AGW illogic.
I got .62inches this week in a part of Montana, Helena Valley, that averages about 7 inches/year. .32 inches were today in two thunderstorms that swept the area. Snow line is at about 5,500 feet in the mountains according to my eyeball estimate. I hope it dries out and warms up enough to plant the tomatoes and peppers this weekend. And then also dries out enough so that I can get the job in Malta, MT done, but they got 1.5 inches of rain this past week. This should be a good year if your wheat is in the ground.
John Galt II, RA says: Also, Does anyone know how that program to create ‘diesel like molecules’ with algae is coming along – are these 4 day old molecules still called ‘fossil’?
The fuel is called bioDiesel, not fossil. It’s very easy to make Diesel from algae, the only question is “What will prevent OPEC from putting you out of business by opening the taps?”. There are at least 4 companies I know of doing it ( I own stock in one of them) but none are making much profit at it. Yet.
There are two major processes (and several minor ones). Most take the oil (that can be up to 50% wt of the algae) and is a vegetable oil (tri-glyceride) and does a transesterfication on it to make a methyl-ester or ethyl-ester. This is easy and I’ve done it in my kitchen. ( Oil – 80%, lye – 1%, methanol 19%, mix at about 80 F or more, wait, phases form, decant.) Greens and home brewers like this one.
Another process just feeds it to the ‘hydrotreater’ at a regular oil refinery. Oil companies like this one.
The process you are talking about is making a new algae that directly emits a hydrocarbon ( i.e. not an alcohol and not a tri-glyceride or fat). It is beloved of biological researchers and genetic engineers. It’s still lab scale, but has promise for ‘someday’…
Oh, I ought to add: Origin Oil ticker OOIL is trading at 22 cents and Petrosun PSUD is at 3 cents, so $300 will get you 10,000 shares and you can sound important by saying you own “5 figures of stock” in an oil company… 😉 Not exactly a thriving business yet…
And, as several common taters have observed, you’ll get a good quick read of real (i.e. able to be made $ from) snow conditions from skifields. The ski reports and webcams aren’t subject to the biasses of Gubmint drones, and are generally not UHI, either, for some reason.
Here in the SH, our southern NZ fields are <a href="http://www.nzski.com/newsletter.jsp?id=71246543-0DA7-4D32-9023-192F50695A09" title = "preparing for a good season", and currently on the east coast of the South Island, literally at the beach, there are freezing showers, hailstones and slushy raindrops, coming out of clouds propelled by a southerly straight out of Antarctica.
So one can just imagine what the mountain basins are like, and in a few short weeks, there’ll be the click of boots on bindings, and we can report back for real….
Just like plants, crops and animals, skifield webcams don’t lie.