From The Declining Spring Snowcover Department
Experts tell us that spring snowcover has seen rapid declines in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 20 years. As of today, western US snowpack averaged by state is 137 percent of normal.
According to USDA Snotel measurements, Arizona is 446% of normal. California is 131% of normal. New Mexico is 184% of normal. Nevada is 126% of normal. Montana is 104% of normal.
Lake Powell water levels have risen four feet in the last month and are 56 feet higher than they were on this date in 2005.
http://lakepowell.water-data.com/graphingengine.php?graphing=1+back_days=150
Salt Lake City just had its latest spring snow on record. Mammoth is expecting a big Memorial Day snow storm.
The Obama administration (42% approval) forecasts heat and drought for the western US. Let’s see how they are doing!
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/wrcc/WaterTDeptWRCC.png
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/wrcc/WaterPNormWRCC.png
Apparently Arnie’s efforts to stop global warming have been successful.
Schwarzenegger has emerged as a national leader on global warming, the one whose name most frequently comes up in foreign capitals when international cooperation on reducing carbon emissions is discussed. Al Gore might have a Nobel Prize, but Schwarzenegger heads a state that, if it were a country, would rank among the 10 biggest economies in the world. Given the Bush administration’s unwillingness to seriously address the problem, Schwarzenegger’s initiatives to mandate hard emissions targets and set up carbon-trading schemes with other states and Canadian provinces make him this country’s most forward-thinking governor, and its greenest Republican.
nc said on May 26, 2010 at 11:31 am:
So are you requesting that the Western US ships the snow mistakenly sent there up to British Columbia? 😉
Anybody know how Lake Mead is doing?
Larus says:
May 26, 2010 at 12:24 am
“Yep, and Actic sea ice is back to average, right? Honestly, how hard is it to grasp the concept of “trend”? How can you think an anomaly negates a twenty-year trend?”
Because there is something called the Pacific Decadel Oscillation that is a 30 year naturally occurring trend.
To determine the ‘true trend’ one has to measure ‘peak to peak’ and ‘trough to trough’.
That takes 60 years.
Lake Powell is up 4 ft in the last month. If you look at data from other years, you will see that either the snowpack in the Rockies and Wind Rivers is low, or that the melt has not really started yet, which would make it late. Lake Powell will rise about a foot a day in peak snow melt. That is when they get 100,000+ CFS in Cataract Canyon, and wave train in the Big Drops is the stuff of legend.
The Colorado is a puny little river, but in May-June it is the raging Colorado.
http://graphs.water-data.com/lakepowell/
Milwaukee Bob says:
May 26, 2010 at 10:23 am
PeterB in Indianapolis said at 9:08 am
Everyone should remember, NO ONE experiences “climate”.
Well, actually we do. While technically “climate” is a made up condition found only in the mind of homo sapiens and their off-spring – computers, thereby making it impossible to “experience” as it doesn’t exist, it is by definition and in reality an average of weather. Therefore, when experiencing weather we ARE – experiencing climate.
Climate is what we expect. Weather is what we get.
It’s almost impossible to change the weather, millions of tons of atmosphere and billions of joules of energy dancing together is very hard to stop.
It’s easy to change the climate – just change your expectations.
I groan when I read that scientists predict some catastrophe based on their modelling of whatever subject.
As a scientist myself, I appreciate the power of modelling, yet there is a huge difference between a model based on known relationships and one which is based on assumptions or speculation.
The former should predict reality, the latter could predict anything at all. Yet, modelling is not just a calculation, it is an attempt to simulate an interactive, complex system. It seeks to answer the question “what if” and it can provide the means to measure the degree of understanding being applied, provided the results can be confirmed in reality.
Perhaps it is this last point that is important. A model is no good if it cannot predict reality. Some systems may be modelled and tested and this is the ideal. Others are deemed good if they can reproduce the outcome of past events. Alas, every financial modeller must realise that the past is not a good guide to the future. Climate scientists generally predict events that may lie beyond our lifetimes.
So where does that leave the science of modelling? A starting point would be to establish the accepted relationships and those that are based on assumptions. The assumptions need to be justified, otherwise we get into a whole new ball game.
Imagine you are creating the rules of a new computer game. Are you on the side of the bad guy or the good guy? If you are completely objective, the game will probably be boring. If you are creating a climate model, to what extent will your beliefs and prejudices influence the relationships that you assume? Will your model accurately mirror your prejudice? Of course it will. Is that objective science?
Is it any sort of science?
Perhaps modelling is valid when the scientist is scrupulously neutral. As soon as he or she becomes even subconsciously biased, then the objectivity is lost, the science is lost and the answer is the one that was wanted all along.
We might as well decide to install windmills on the toss of a coin. If it is heads, the warmists can install windmills. If it tails, we do no such thing. You are a warmist. It comes up tails.
“Best of three,” I hear you say.
I would be interested to hear a debate on this subject, particularly if modellers could comment on their experience of how to deal with the expectation of the paymaster.
Anthony – This is the Snotel Data for Arizona that you referenced on your site. The only Arizona data is from San Francisco Peaks Basin. I can’t seem to find where you came up with the 446% of normal figure. The Arizona State Snotel Map for May 26, 2010 is at the link below and shows this area to have less than 50% SWE of the 1971-2000 Normal. I would like to be critical but right now I’m just plain confused!
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/az_swepctnormal_update.pdf
Your Referenced Data Set:
ARIZONA
VERDE RIVER BASIN …………………………………………………… 5 of 7 * 120
SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS ………………………………………………. 1 of 1 25 71
CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM ………………………………………… 3 of 3 * 117
LITTLE COLORADO – SOUTHERN HEADWATERS …….. 5 of 5 * 118
UPPER SALT RIVER BASIN / WHITE MOUNTAINS …… 6 of 7 * 106
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER BASIN …………………………………… 5 of 5 0* 103
UPPER GILA RIVER BASIN ………………………………………….. 3 of 3 0* 115
The Snow Water Equivalent Percent of Average represents the snow
water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the
basin compared to the average value for those sites on this day.
The Accumulated Precipitation Percent of Average represents the
total precipitation (beginning October 1st) found at selected
SNOTEL sites in or near the basin compared to the average value
for those sites on this day.
* = Data are not available or data may not provide a valid measure
of conditions for over half of the sites within the basin.
Refer to the individual state reports for a complete data
listing and basin analysis.
Mari Warcwm, at May 26, 2010 at 12:54 pm
Global warming stocks are not faring so well these days. With oil prices low, they are likely to never compete without government mandates or massive subsidies.
http://sowellslawblog.blogspot.com/2010/05/global-warming-funds-as-investments.html
The data at this site (NRCS SNOTEL):
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/snotelbasin
shows that Arizona snowpack is at 446% of normal?
Curt says:
May 26, 2010 at 12:45 pm
Curt, I agree that looking at ANY statistical snapshot-in-time can be misleading. Especially regarding a water YEAR. No doubt that the Massive Spring snowpack levels are partially the result of extended cold weather patterns, that have delayed the snowmelt.
However ! If you couple the massive snowpack numbers ALONG with the ABOVE-AVERAGE reservoir water levels …
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGraphsMain.action
Then you cannot dismiss the EXTREMELY high snowpack numbers as a time-sensitive statistical oddity. Shasta is essentially FULL to the spillway … with 276% of normal snowpack/snowmelt … still coming. ANNNNND it is STILL RAINING and SNOWING in CA … into JUNE !!! This is also NOT NORMAL. This is NOT a DROUGHT … NOT even CLOSE
Yet the overpaid government bureaucrats INSIST CA is gripped in a drought. This reeks of the same LIES (and statistical manipulation) told by global warmists. Time to FIRE the LIARS … free-up some tax dollars for REAL science that can help humanity.
While Seattle did have a very mild winter (and the Howard Hanson Dam thanks mother nature), we’re more than making up for it now. We’re doing well to break 60, and Spokane set an all-time record low this week of 32.
The picture here has perhaps been going on for a couple months. Cool in the western US and skipping spring and going straight into summer in the midwestern US and, as noted above, Ontario.
http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/records/3day/us.html?c=maxtemp,mintemp,lowmax,highmin
I also read somewhere that the Jan through April global temps are the highest in the modern record.
Curt says:
May 26, 2010 at 12:45 pm
And Curt … what would you say about the CRISIS-mongers at the state DWR who declared that CA was gripped in the “WORST DROUGHT IN THE HISTORY OF CA” ?
The DWR made this statement in mid January 2009. Well-before the bulk of CA’s snowpack is typically recharged. As I recall, the Water year 2009 ended VERY close to NORMAL. This was massively irresponsible political-speak that passed for “science”. It is statistically irrelevant to make such a statement at such a snapshot-in-time. But our gullible public doesn’t stop to think about what they are being told … and sadly … our lapdog media laps it up without question.
Lies … Damn Lies … and statistical manipulation by scienci-sounding bureaucrats.
FIRE the LIARS !!!
, I agree that looking at ANY statistical snapshot-in-time can be misleading. Especially regarding a water YEAR. No doubt that the Massive Spring snowpack levels are partially the result of extended cold weather patterns, that have delayed the snowmelt.
They are trying to get the trail ridge road open in Colorado open for Memorial Day weekend
Larus says:
May 26, 2010 at 12:24 am
“Yep, and Actic sea ice is back to average, right? Honestly, how hard is it to grasp the concept of “trend”? How can you think an anomaly negates a twenty-year trend? “
________________________________________________________________________
Because the trend is part of a sine curve not a straight line headed always and for evermore up. The factors influencing that curve have changed from positive to negative for the most part. Six months of unusual weather in most of the northern hemisphere is the result and a pretty good indication that we are seeing a change in the “trend line” That is as long as no one “hides the decline” – that would be a travesty.
You might want to check that Arizona figure back against the data
Z said at 1:38 pm
Climate is what we expect. Weather is what we get.
It’s easy to change the climate – just change your expectations.
I like that and it’s true. We conceptualize (perceive?) everything and get reality. Climate is a concept, average weather during a specific period of time. Weather is real, what is or was happening at a specific location at a given moment of time.
Ask me what the weather is like where I am and I’ll tell you it’s partly sunny, about 88F and 60% +/- humidity. Ask me what the climate is like where I am and I have to ask – when; spring, summer, Nov., etc. because I CAN NOT tell you the “climate” at a specific time on a specific day because that would be “weather” and “climate” is average weather over a period of time.
jorgekafkazar says:
May 26, 2010 at 10:04 am
“…Schwarzenegger heads a state that, if it were a country, would rank among the 10 biggest economies in the world….”
He’ll soon fix THAT! Back to Hollywood with him!
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Gee I thought Schwarzenegger already had with the California AB32 greenhouse gas law
The results of California’s “green Policies”
Collapse of Tax Revenue has left California near Bankruptcy
Fiorina suggests California consider Bankruptcy
Rasmussen: Only 27% of nationwide voters believe federal government should bailout California. 55% say let the state go bankrupt.
Unemployment tops 20% in eight California counties
EPA Regulations Cause Drought in California – some farming towns like Mendota seeing unemployment numbers near 40% The area affected is the size of more than half of Denmark.
Flood Of California Businesses Abandon State
Weather varies a bit, and the alarmists howl “climate change”. How foolish. No more foolish than looking at the temperatures over the past century or so and imagining some sort of “trend”, certainly. The margin of error in those measured temperatuires is huge compared to the differences in the averaged temperatures. And, of course, averaging data does not lower the margin of error. The concept that errors “average out” is pure bilge.
Milwaukee Bob says:
May 26, 2010 at 10:23 am
PeterB in Indianapolis said at 9:08 am
Everyone should remember, NO ONE experiences “climate”.
Well, actually we do. While technically “climate” is a made up condition found only in the mind of homo sapiens and their off-spring – computers, thereby making it impossible to “experience” as it doesn’t exist, it is by definition and in reality an average of weather. Therefore, when experiencing weather we ARE – experiencing climate.
__________________________________________________________________________
As another commenter said. Weather is the derivative of climate. (mathmatically)
Enneagram says:
May 26, 2010 at 10:26 am
R. de Haan says:
May 26, 2010 at 9:52 am . This really made me laugh:
So what’s left is an absolute minority of people who do believe AGW is real but they are such a small crowd, too small to explain any “consensus” on the subject
because, that “minority” is those in power….so you are done!
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AHHhhhh, but that is what the French Aristocracy thought before the eruption of the Laki volcano led to a dust cloud smothering much of Europe and caused such a drastic crop failure that it led to the French Revolution.
In their greed the grain traders have set the modern world up for just such a disaster thanks to the WTO Agreement on Agriculture and the “Freedom to Farm” Act of 1996, both written by Dan Amstutz VP of Cargill the world’s largest grain trader.
“Recently there have been increased calls for the development of a U.S. or international grain reserve to provide priority access to food supplies for Humanitarian needs. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) and the North American Export Grain Association (NAEGA) strongly advise against this concept..Stock reserves have a documented depressing effect on prices… and resulted in less aggressive market bidding for the grains.” July 22, 2008 letter to President Bush http://www.naega.org/images/pdf/grain_reserves_for_food_aid.pdf
“Quietly, the last of the U.S. government’s wheat reserves, held in the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust, were sold in late May onto the domestic market for cash. The cash was put in a trust for food aid. With no other government wheat holdings, U.S. government wheat stocks are now totally exhausted….
“This lack of emergency preparedness is the fault of the 1996 farm bill [written by a VP of Cargill, the grain traders]which eliminated the government’s grain reserves as well as the Farmer Owned Reserve (FOR),” explained Matlack….” http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/07/us-govt-completely-out-of-wheat.html
For those who think I have been blowing smoke the last few years because of my concern about the food supply…
U.S. Food Inflation Spiraling Out of Control
FORT LEE, N.J., April 22 /PRNewswire/ — The National Inflation Association today issued the following food inflation alert to its http://inflation.us members:
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today released their Producer Price Index (PPI) report for March 2010 and the latest numbers are shocking. Food prices for the month rose by 2.4%, its sixth consecutive monthly increase and the largest jump in over 26 years. NIA believes that a major breakout in food inflation could be imminent, similar to what is currently being experienced in India…..” http://www.marketskeptics.com/2010/04/us-food-inflation-spiraling-out-of.html
Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production
by Eric deCarbonnel
“After reading about the droughts in two major agricultural countries, China and Argentina, I decided to research the extent other food producing nations were also experiencing droughts. This project ended up taking a lot longer than I thought. 2009 looks to be a humanitarian disaster around much of the world….” http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/02/2009-global-food-catastrophe.html
Plant your gardens now folks and brush up on your canning skills….
By the way how do you build a guillotine????/sarc
I can attest to Mt. Baldy here in SoCal being still snowed in. It is not visible
from this seat, but if I go to the garage I can see it.
There is some disconnect with the water agencies here in California.
A few years back here in SoCal we created a new reservoir Diamond Valley Lake,
which gets its water from Shasta at the other end of the state. Although Shasta
is 15 inches from cresting the dam, Diamond Valley reports 100 feet below full.
It will be interesting to learn the the combined Powell/Mead fullness on July 1,
2010.
Wayne Delbeke says:
May 26, 2010 at 11:55 am
Toronto heat wave:
I love watching the jet stream (and associated highs and lows) and how it wreaks havoc on the weather. The current snows in Alberta and Colorado and cool temperatures of the whole of the west of North America, and the hot weather on the east coast is simply a function of the position of the jet stream right now…..
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Hot weather on the east coast ????? It was 35F in my area of North Carolina on the 10th and normally we have temps into the nineties, often as hot as 98F. This year we have had only a couple of days reach 91F. My grass is FINALLY starting to grow this week.
Ross M says:
May 25, 2010 at 11:25 pm
Averaging state percentages doesn’t seems like a good way to Western snow cover – they are all different sizes. The first link doesn’t do it this way, so the comparison is invalid.
Sure Ross, there isn’t anything that means anything in this global warming world…… except co2 is going to bring disasters to the world. We know the drill.
Good point. Just because a reservoir is under capacity, doesn’t mean it’s caused by lack of snowfall. We just keep on building new homes in the semi-desert of California, fed by reservoirs built decades ago…