From The Declining Spring Snowcover Department
Experts tell us that spring snowcover has seen rapid declines in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 20 years. As of today, western US snowpack averaged by state is 137 percent of normal.
According to USDA Snotel measurements, Arizona is 446% of normal. California is 131% of normal. New Mexico is 184% of normal. Nevada is 126% of normal. Montana is 104% of normal.
Lake Powell water levels have risen four feet in the last month and are 56 feet higher than they were on this date in 2005.
http://lakepowell.water-data.com/graphingengine.php?graphing=1+back_days=150
Salt Lake City just had its latest spring snow on record. Mammoth is expecting a big Memorial Day snow storm.
The Obama administration (42% approval) forecasts heat and drought for the western US. Let’s see how they are doing!
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/wrcc/WaterTDeptWRCC.png
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/wrcc/WaterPNormWRCC.png
Apparently Arnie’s efforts to stop global warming have been successful.
Schwarzenegger has emerged as a national leader on global warming, the one whose name most frequently comes up in foreign capitals when international cooperation on reducing carbon emissions is discussed. Al Gore might have a Nobel Prize, but Schwarzenegger heads a state that, if it were a country, would rank among the 10 biggest economies in the world. Given the Bush administration’s unwillingness to seriously address the problem, Schwarzenegger’s initiatives to mandate hard emissions targets and set up carbon-trading schemes with other states and Canadian provinces make him this country’s most forward-thinking governor, and its greenest Republican.
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Larus says:
May 26, 2010 at 12:24 am
do you actually believe “20 years trend” is longterm trend. the alarmists used to claim 30 years is what is needed ( actually that might not be enough either ). now 20 years is enough for a “trend”? so, if by 2018, the “hottest year” is still 1998, would you then be talking about “20 year trend” as well?
and you are doing the same as what you are ridiculing…. 20 years make it a trend in a world as complex as this.
Everyone and anyone who doubts AGW has to understand that the warming that started in 1850’s and continues to this day. Was in anticipation of increased output of C02 by mankind.
If for some reason the cooling trend continues this would be great news. It means that temps are starting to fall in anticipation that mankind has stopped emitting C02. Now since we can’t have a universe ending time paradox, it is imperative that the governments of the world, especially the ones from the West be given the power to enforce C02 cuts. This means that they have to tax and tax again, and they will probably have to imprison anyone who questions their methods for treason and crimes against humanity. It is the only way, and anybody who says differently is evil.
Furthermore the horrible personal attacks on our leaders need to stop, and the perpetrators punished for all time. Al Gore works hard, and he has worked on the side of good. What does it matter if he has a few perks at our expense. Yes Mann, and Jones and Briffa and Hansen lied to us, but it was all for a good cause, not like those meanyhead individuals that keep yammering for silly things like raw data, and the methods used to achieve uhhhh everything that they have achieved of course. They are great men, and like all great men they have thier failings. Pay no attention to our Great Leaders actions, they only have our best interests at heart. You know what they say, to make a hockey stick you have to break a few laws, both natural and Mannmade.
The water basins in Co may be below average but very few front range cities have mandatory watering restrictions. For current and historical levels, take a look at:
http://www.co.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/snow/watershed/current/daily/maps_graphs/swe_hilo.html
Yes, the desert is blooming this spring. I can attest to that. There is still snow showing on the southern side of Sierra Blanca. (12,000 ft. Southern New Mexico) It’s usually bare by now. I note that the increased snowpack is predominantly in the SW. BC and Alberta, not so much. But one spring does not make a trend. Let’s wait at least a couple of years, if not ten.
Richard Sharpe says:
May 26, 2010 at 7:25 am
Honestly, how hard is it to grasp the concept of cycles and that parts of a sine wave look like a downward or upward trend until you have enough data?
And how hard is it to grasp the concept of forcing on any cycle? Like: sin[x] + exp[a x], a a small positive constant?
USGS on streamflows: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/
George Taylor, previously long-time Oregon State Climatologist, wrote an article in 2005 responding to those who started snowpack calculations in the 1950s, thus accentuating the trend compared to using a longer view.
Regardless, he showed how snowpack is more dependant on precipitation than on temperature.
http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=052605X
From the “Weather isn’t climate” department…. There’s been a persistent trough in the eastern Pacific this spring which usually means ridging in the east so that part of the continent has been warmer than average.
Still not a single 80 degree day at my location in the Sierra foothills of California. Last year we had 95 by this date. Rainfall is 120% of an average season at my house which ends June 30th.
Just checked some of the high Sierra roads. Hwy 4 is still closed due to snow. Hwy 120 over Tioga Pass in Yosemite is still closed with 4-6 feet of snow and rock slides and downed trees. Glacier Point road in Yosemite is still closed with 4 feet of snow on it. The Sierra received more snow last night and probably more tomorrow. In an average year these roads are open by Memorial Day weekend. Maybe 4th of July this year?
When it finally does stop raining and warms up the “Bad Fire Season Expected” headlines will start because the rain made the grass and brush grow like crazy.
Robert M
You said the warming started in 1850. That must be when the Hummer was introduced.
“How large a fraction of the Northern Hemisphere comprises the western US?
Why suggest this fraction is 100%?”
I believe this year’s satellite data (same data used to show Arctic ice) showed greatest Northern Hemisphere snow cover since they started recording data in 1979.
crosspatch says: at 12:14 am
And on the news tonight (I live in California) the story is that May precipitation is below normal so expect reduced water deliveries. Go figure.
Just as a reminder, because I know you know this – “precipitation” is from Mommy Nature, “water deliveries” are from Daddy Government. And Mommy and Daddy have never been married and do not talk to each other. The AWG crowd is as much (or more) about control of your life, and specifically therein – water, as they are about CO2 emissions.
And you say Sonora Pass is still closed? Do you know which level? There are three. Just east of Strawberry (which I have to believe is open), almost at the top (Dardanelle, which would not be surprising that it’s still closed) and about have way between the two (Forest Rd 5N28). Yes, and there was a – “year of little trade” in Mi-Wuk Indian lore in which the snow was so deep through the summer that the Mountain Mi-Wuks on the western side of the Sierras could not trade with their Nevada brethren. Oh, and how I do miss Mi-Wuk Village and the Sierra Nevada Mts. and especially the Diamondback Grill in Sonora. Best dang hamburgers West of the Pecos!
Ed Zuiderwijk says:
May 26, 2010 at 2:25 am
“The rise in Lake Powel is good new for Vegas. Is there any info about the Utah salt planes, which periodically become lakes again? Time to prepare the sandbags in Salt lake City?”
This is a fascinating process: Each year, the salt flats become shimmering mirrors of 6 inch deep water. The water evaporates, leaving minerals behind, and late in the summer, they are the Bonneville Salt Flats, known for land speed records set there.
Here is a photo during the wet period.
http://static.howstuffworks.com/gif/family-vacations-in-utah-5.jpg
and then dry:
http://www.westcountygazette.com/blog/uploaded_images/Salt-Flats-of-Utah-792990.jpg
http://static.howstuffworks.com/gif/salt-3.jpg
The freeway is elevated thru this area.
And speaking of Global Warming, have a look at the size of Lake Bonneville before it all evaporated, leaving behind The Great Salt Lake. Makes Lake Powell look like a puddle!
http://www.bonnevilleshorelinetrail.org/geology/geologiclake.gif
But this was not related to the flood of 1983, which was caused by “City Creek” overload. The overflow was diverted thru the city via sandbagged streets and they made little bridges for us to drive over it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:SLCfloodphoto.jpg
Salt Lake City
I think my comment is in the spam filter…. 🙂
[Rescued & posted. ~dbs, mod.]
Western parts of continents show similar weather patterns.
In Spain reservoir capacity (quite large indeed) is nearly 85% ¡Fantastic!
¿See it in the news? Spain is officially supposed to get drier and drier, hotter and hotter…
http://www.embalses.net/ – interesting web it shows all the reservoirs, trends, variations, inflows, outflows, etc.
Everyone should remember, NO ONE experiences “climate”. We all experience “weather”, and we adapt to it on a constant and rapid basis.
As far as NH snowpack, WHERE IS MOST OF THE NH SNOWPACK IN MAY??? Oh yeah, up in the mountains… DUH. People claiming that an average of mountain state snowpack as faulty must not realize this. Now, the Canadian Rockies and Alaska should probably be thrown in as well, and the Alps, and the Urals, and any other NH mountains high enough to have snow-pack in May, that would indeed be a better NH snowpack average than just the Western US, yes, I would agree with that assertion.
…and after all that discussion about “it’s” vs. “its” on the previous post… tsk tsk.
[Thank’s, fixed. ~dbs]
Pamela Gray says:
May 26, 2010 at 6:24 am
That is because they don’t see reality on the field, just sitting in front of their computers watching anything (hope not pornography)and the computer itself counting pixels in the background.
That “stasis” for so many hours is bound to produce clots in their arteries and heart attacks for sure.
Beneath the “Posts By Date” calendar for May there is a little link to “Apr.”, which in turn will no doubt lead further back. And there is the Categories click-line, which opens up to a set of article-topics that can be selected. I don’t know where the old Archives link has gone.
All the leaves are brown (ish green)
And the sky is grey(ish pink)
….
California dreaming
On such a winter’s day.
#
RR Kampen says:
May 26, 2010 at 5:46 am
R. de Haan, “The weatherman told his public this was due to a lack of rain.”
“That surprised me too. Correct, it was because of the cold. We did some analysis within the met community here and also ruled out the possibility they were different potatoes.
It is the cold. May 2010 is in the 5-10 percentile coldest and after the fairly warm weekend today is very cold indeed again.
http://www.knmi.nl/klimatologie/grafieken/maand/txgn/txgn260_201005.png
Today’s max may hardly exceed 12° C.”
That’s why farmers, independent weathermen and skeptics don’t buy the the AGW crap. They know when someone lies.
RR Kampen
Normally the oceans don’t retain snow, so it might not make a lot of sense to figure them in to snowcover calculations.
The small percentage of weatherman that tell us AGW is real do so because they fear losing their job if they say otherwise.
Others are paid to say AGW is real but most of them don’t act like it.
So what’s left is an absolute minority of people who do believe AGW is real but they are such a small crowd, too small to explain any “consensus” on the subject.
Therefore the consensus on AGW is a lie too.
Those who do or did believe AGW was real keep telling us that weather is not climate.
But with this we agree. Because it’s true.
Layne Blanchard said at 8:56 am
Makes Lake Powell look like a puddle!
But this was not related to the flood of 1983, which was caused by “City Creek” overload. The overflow was diverted thru the city via sandbagged streets and they made little bridges for us to drive over it.
I was there also! (Had lake front property 🙂 in Sandy, 106S) I filled a lot of those sand bags. It still ranks (in my mind) as the most efficient and amazing successful volunteer task of all time! We literally rerouted a RIVER (or soon to be river because “Creek” it was not!) thru the heart of downtown SLC! Thousands of volunteers, magnificently coordinated, filled and placed sand bags along a very snake like route thru the city to guide the melt runoff that was about to come. That’s right! It was done well AHEAD of the flood that the planners knew was coming. Yes, we were in a hurry and there was water while we were still laying bags, but it work perfectly (as I recall) and was a stunning sight at the peak of runoff! Tens of thousands of cubic feet of water per minute rushing down its “commanded course” from mountain to The Great Salt Lake…. “Unbelievable planning and execution” I kept saying to myself as I watched it go by – – dead tired and with much increased respect for the leaders of the City as well as the Mormon Church. When “they” call for help – – – it happens! and no, I’m not Mormon.
“…Schwarzenegger heads a state that, if it were a country, would rank among the 10 biggest economies in the world….”
He’ll soon fix THAT! Back to Hollywood with him!
RR Kampen says: “And how hard is it to grasp the concept of forcing on any cycle? Like: sin[x] + exp[a x], a a small positive constant?”
The concept is easy. What’s hard is proving the forcing really exists when you have no data that shows causation.