Images spanning 130 years show non-effects of sea level rise
By Steve Goddard
Above, imaginary alarmist imagery: London Drowning from the BBC
One of my favorite CAGW climochondrias is worry about sea level. From Wikipedia:
Hypochondriasis (or hypochondria, often referred to as health phobia or health anxiety) refers to an excessive preoccupation or worry about having a serious illness. Often, hypochondria persists even after a physician has evaluated a person and reassured them that their concerns about symptoms do not have an underlying medical basis or, if there is a medical illness, the concerns are far in excess of what is appropriate for the level of disease.
Warming to Cause Catastrophic Rise in Sea Level?Stefan Lovgren for National Geographic NewsUpdated April 26, 2004Most scientists agree that global warming presents the greatest threat to the environment. There is little doubt that the Earth is heating up. From the melting of the ice cap on Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa’s tallest peak, to the loss of coral reefs as oceans become warmer, the effects of global warming are often clear. However, the biggest danger, many experts warn, is that global warming will cause sea levels to rise dramatically.
The esteemed Dr. Hansen has made the threat clear :
a study led by James Hansen, the head of the climate science program at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and a professor at Columbia University, suggests that current estimates for how high the seas could rise are way off the mark – and that in the next 100 years melting ice could sink cities in the United States to Bangladesh.
That sounds serious. New Year’s Eve in Manhattan could be rough if Times Square was underwater.
But I keep thinking that if sea level was rising significantly, some of the billions of people who live along the coasts might have noticed? My favorite snorkeling beach in California is The Cove in La Jolla. I first went there around 1960, when Raquel Welch (Tejada at the time) was named Homecoming Queen at La Jolla High School. I went snorkeling there again last summer. The beach is still there and hasn’t changed. Below is a photo of The Cove from 1871.
https://www.sandiegohistory.org/timeline/images/80-2860.jpg
And a recent photo :
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/da/090207-LaJollaCove.jpg
And here is the animation with the two images matched to scale and overlaid:
(click on the image to see animation if is is not visible)
A lot of erosion has occurred over the last 130 years. In the blink animation above (click on the image to see animation) note that the rock under the three people standing on the right in the 1871 image is gone, and has formed a small island of boulders with three people sitting on it in the recent image. There is no evidence that sea level has risen.
A few Palm Trees have been planted, but the sea appears to be in exactly the same place it was 130 years ago. In fact the rocks on the upper right are higher above the water now than in the earlier picture (high tide.) There is no glacial rebound in San Diego, and the faults in the region are strike-slip (horizontal) faults. They don’t cause vertical movement. Prior to the March quake this year, the last large quake to hit the region was in 1862.

http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/FaultMaps/117-33.gif
The land in La Jolla hasn’t moved up or down in the last 130 years. Neither has the ocean. Where is this sea level catastrophe happening? On a sandbar? At current melt rates, it will take 300,000 years for Antarctica to melt.
Often, hypochondria persists even after a physician has evaluated a person and reassured them that their concerns about symptoms do not have an underlying medical basis or, if there is a medical illness, the concerns are far in excess of what is appropriate for the level of disease.
WUWT has hundreds of thousands of readers around the world. If any of you have personally seen sea level rise at your favorite beach over the last few decades, please speak up!
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Don’t the La Jolla photos need to have been taken at the same tidal phase to make a meaningful comparison?
REPLY: We don’t know that they are or are not. Large changes, such as the oft cited “catastrophic sea level rise” are not evident. -A
I’ve been going to beaches in the Florida Keys to snorkel since 1972. One in particular, Little Duck Key, is a very low-lying beach with a very gradual incline from the shoreline. Even 2.7 inches of sea level rise (1.8mm * 38 years) should cause a significant decrease in the land area, yet the beach is no smaller than when I first went there.
“If any of you have personally seen sea level rise at your favorite beach over the last few decades, please speak up!”
Anthony: Check with the Newshour’s Heidi Cullen. She put Laura Devendorf on national TV May 19 of last year with the following unrebutted statement:
LAURA DEVENDORF, Sunbury, Georgia: We’re worried about sea level rise, indeed. I think everyone on the coast is. You can just sit there and see the tides getting bigger.
Complete text at:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/environment/jan-june09/georgiacoal_05-19.html
Laura must have pretty good eyes…. : > !
Many times erosion or subsidence is taken to be proof of sea level rise. Consider how we’re wrecking the Mississippi delta with levees for flood control. The Chesapeake bay has numerous islands some of which are disappearing more from simple erosion than anything else. Same thing with barrier islands (sand bars) which use to move but because we’ve built on them we’ve attempted to stabilize the unstable.
GeoFlynx
If sea level rise has to be measured in millimeters, perhaps it is not so catastrophic after all?
Perhaps the measured error is greater than the trend?
In one lifetime I doubt anyone would notice, but there is the concern that future generations will suffer. But how many adults still live in the house where they were born, the same neighborhood, or even the same city? And even if the sea were to rise most infrastructure would need to be replaced long before the water got there.
Saw the picture of a flooded (and, if I predict the predictions these days, probably doomed too) London and thought…
London bridge is gonna drown
Gonna drown, gonna drown…
Anyway, if I see any sea level rises, I’ll let you know! 🙂
Sea level rise is not uniform around the world. In some places, like around the Maldives, the sea level is declining. This makes the claims about the Maldives being imperiled by sea level rise both a lie and a stunt. A large region of the Indian Ocean (where Maldives are situated) has shown a measurable decline over the period 1950-2000, and the rate of decline measured by satellite altimetry exceeds 10mm per year in places.
Sea level all along the west coast of USA is stable or declining. At La Jolla it is very slightly declining. Check out the facts in paper by John A. Church et al (Journal of Climate, July 2004).
Church shows that most regions of the oceans are stable or in slight decline, but there are some regions with steep increases, especially around Indonesia. So we have the same situation as ‘global temperature’ – we can have most of the globe with stable or declining temperatures, but the ‘global average’ can be record high due to a local hotspot, as we saw in Canada earlier this year. So it is with sea level – a relatively small region around Indonesia dominates to give a ‘global average’ sea level rise. But for most of the world – no change!
Doubtless there are statistical artifacts, and then there is calibration by a tide gauge in Hong Kong which is subsiding. So we have the marine equivalent of UHI as well!
See all this and more in my post here (which includes some figures):
http://buythetruth.wordpress.com/2008/11/15/sea-level-scam/
Who needs science when you can make fantasy photoshopped images of London drowning? The sort of creative and imaginary science one comes to expect of the full color Sunday newspaper supplements … or the comics. So much sexier than mundane facts. Meanwhile, photos from nearly 140 years ago aren’t very useful unless they show extensive fields of ice that have since melted. Images of an unchanging landscape (or seascape) just don’t drive scare stories (and print media circulation).
pho99 says:
May 1, 2010 at 4:30 pm
The simple answer to the tides in the photos is to look at places where there was/is soil.
If the sea were truly rising catastropically, then the soil/sand line would recede as ever higher sea levels led to storms/tides that continued to wash off more soil.
Look at the horse & carraige in Steve’s photos. Is that land is still there?
I thought that the issue of sea level rise was global average. Can you tell me why a single spot matters in that context?
The U.S. Gulf Coast has rising sea levels, but not from global warming and ocean volume expansion. It’s due to land subsidence, defined as “the lowering of the surface of the Earth with respect to a datum or point of reference.”
From the American Geophysical Union (2006): http://www.agu.org/report/hurricanes/subsidence.html
“An enormous volume of debris eroded from the Rocky Mountains and the Appalachians is carried by the waters of the Mississippi [River]. Upon entering the Gulf of Mexico, the river slows to a stop and the sediments come to rest, forming the Mississippi River delta. Over time, the Gulf of Mexico basin has accumulated an aggregate thickness of sedimentary deposits of nearly 60,000 feet (more than 10 miles). This massive pile of sediments at the edge of the continent has two characteristics. First, its colossal weight has depressed and continues to depress the Earth’s crust. Second, the pile of sediment is weak and unable to support itself laterally. Over time, large tracts of the unstable pile have been displaced southward along sloping faults.
Geological and geophysical investigations have shown that subsidence is widespread, extending beyond the Mississippi River delta and coast, and is occurring more rapidly than previously thought. Several natural and human-related processes are known to be causing subsidence in the Gulf Coast today.”
Also, regarding the before-and-after La Jolla cove photos, I urge caution on drawing conclusions. The impact of the local tide at the time of each photo can give erroneous results. For example, if the earlier photo was taken at high tide, and the more recent photo taken at low tide, there would have been considerable overall sea level rise. On May 13th – 14th of this year, the difference between high tide and low tide will be 7 feet at La Jolla, at the new moon. (high tide of 6 feet on 4/13 at 9:14 p.m., and low tide of -1 feet on 4/14 at 4:17 a.m.) The high-low tide difference will be 7.5 feet two weeks later, when the moon is full.
Here is a good sea level page.
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/SeaLevelRising.htm
The assertion that LaJolla seems stable (strike slip don’t cause uplift? (not so)) and a good proxy for sea level NOT rising doesn’t seem quite right to me. Is that what you are saying?
Matching photos (not referenced to tides?) doesn’t seem to be proof to me. Sorry – I’m skeptical – lots of evidence to the contrary in other places (stable and with continuous measure).
Further, one shouldn’t confuse relative sea level rise with absolute sea level rise.
Changes in relative sea level might occur due changes in subsidence (due to ground water withdrawal, faulting, etc), sediment supply and land use / cover changes (stabilization and deforestation).
These are not proof of sea level rise.
[no masquerading as Hansen ~ ctm]
Hush! I’m hoping that the hype will cause seaside real estate to drop to the level where I can buy my own shoreline!
The seawalls and improvements at Nawiliwili and Ahukini Harbors , Kauai ,remain exactly at the level they were constructed by eye measure. The former 90 years in place, the latternow a park, well over a hundred.
Been saying this for years has anyone noticed it getting hotter or colder over the past 20 years?. More storms less storms?, more rain less rain?, No, you haven’t and you never will because you will not live long enough to notice climate change which occurs over 1000’s of years and reverts to default status every time anyway until the sun explodes LOL.
But – the most important question is: did Ýou ever talk to Raquel? Ha ha ha!
Are we arguing that sea levels are not rising now? Because they most certainly are.
Better arguments might be that sea levels have been rising for at least 150 years (probably much longer), that the rate of sea level rise has slightly decreased over the last few year and was rising much, much faster in the distant pass, and that the amount of sea level rise is dwarfed by other natural factors we already deal with, such as tides.
Nice, France 1840, rue des ponchettes by Clément ROASSAL
http://peintres.nicehistorique.org/img/img_contenu/img_high/tableau_95_nice.jpg
Today
http://www.raubacapeu.net/people/yves/pictures/2001/03/31/dsc20010331006.jpg
Two things to note in your photos. The modern picture was taken at low tide by the look of the rocks in the foreground. Second is that people in the past appear to be a lot taller. Clearly there is some distortion in the photos and they may have been taken from different vantage points. Tidal gauge readings and records in this area of California are available would give a much more convincing record of sea level changes.
Unfortunately Anthony has stopped inline images from being put into comments. Here goes another attempt
This is the daily MSL from Halifax, Nova Scotia from 1920-2009. It looks like sea-level rise to me.
http://lh6.ggpht.com/_oCeMiYptlC8/S9y1rHkVWYI/AAAAAAAAAvc/_1DdxEqAc1M/s800/halifaxmsl19202009.jpg
REPLY: Unfortunately JohnA is blaming me for something I didn’t do and have no control over since this blog is hosted on wordpress.com, who control how blogs and content are viewed. Also – I never had the feature for commenters, though administrators and editors (like Willis) can put inline images in. – Anthony
@ur momisugly stevengoddard says: “Water is extremely fluid. It isn’t very good at forming hills.”
I believe the Maldives is below Mean Sea Level, so I guess sailing outta there is uphill 😉 Mind you, local sea level in the Maldives was higher during the Little Ice Age.
Steve Goddard said
Actually, that’s not quite true. Water levels react to air pressure as well as tidal forces. If you have a low pressure cell then the water will ramp up a bit higher under it. In the same way, a high pressure cell will depress the ocean surface.
You can and do get regions with different mean air pressures and the water levels behave accordingly.
In the extreme case of hurricanes the low pressure causes much higher water levels – the storm surge.