From the Rice University Spaceweather listserver:
The listserver moderator writes in a separate email:
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WOW – a real honest substorm coming!
As those in our “spacalrt” email listserver have just heard, the ACE spacecraft is measuring a high speed southward IMF, so the the Boyle Index (BI) went above 200 for the first time in a number of years! If this level of solar wind continues (it is falling slowly), there will be geomagnetic activity with Kp of 5 or more in the next three hours, according to our neural net predictions. Depending on how sustained the solar wind is, the prediction may go above 6… stay tuned!! At the very least this may be the best event of the new solar cycle… whew!
Unfortunately for skywatchers in the western hemisphere, we will be in daylight, but European and Asian colleagues should be on the lookout for auroras in the next few hours.
To watch the BI and our real-time 3 and 1-hour ahead Kp predictions, go to
(it also shows the “realtime” Kp estimates in red, which arrive well after our predictions for that time interval).
The Boyle index (BI) gives the value of the “asymptotic polar cap potential” – i.e. the value that the electric potential across the ionospheric flow WOULD get to if the solar wind is steady for 4 hours. It does NOT include a saturation term, so it will overestimate the true potential for major storms. However, since certain measures of geomagnetic activity don’t saturated, a
BI of 300 does imply a stronger storm than a BI of 200, even though the actual polar cap potential may turn out to be about the same because of saturation.
For those not yet on our “spacalrt” email warning system, you can get free email warnings by sending an email to:
spacalrt-subscribe@mailman.rice.edu
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Unrelated to Rice U, but also of interest, is the recent plot of TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) by the SORCE spacecraft. – Anthony
Carla (18:38:04) :
Thanks Leif. Why is it that your observations read so much better than that of Group W?
‘Cause I’m da man!
Leif and Bill and everyone here:
BBC 2 let Brian Cox loose with a budget and he came up with ‘Wonders of the Solar System” a 5- part documentary available over at Youtube
It’s a good accretion of the graphics and film clips. You can cut and paste this link.
http://www.youtube.com/user/AnonH5N1
Leif:
Were you succesful in getting the minimum named as a ‘Eddy Minimum’?
The Amazon River/Solar correlation is asserted in this part of 3 of Episode one.
Which you may or may not find interesting, or worse.
johnnythelowery (06:41:10) :
Were you succesful in getting the minimum named as a ‘Eddy Minimum’?
We only name ‘significant’ minima and it is not certain that the current one will qualify. In 30 years time we’ll know.
The Sun is still exhibiting very low activity, correct Leif dahling? So what’s with all the pressure on our magnetosphere:
http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/
What is hitting us so vehemently? Cosmic rays from the local fluff?
And why all the earthquake activity? I can’t apply my woo-woo understanding that the sunspots create earthquakes, now can I? Is it connected with the big bang collider and finally getting their particle to wham bam thank you mam?
Suranda (08:42:05) :
The Sun is still exhibiting very low activity, correct Leif dahling? So what’s with all the pressure on our magnetosphere:
What is hitting us so vehemently? Cosmic rays from the local fluff?
We were ‘hit’ by a coronal mass ejection from the Sun. These can occur at any time [although much more often at solar maximum]. Cosmic rays don’t do anything to the magnetosphere, except being instrumental in slowly [perhaps hundreds of years] eating away at the inner radiation belt, which we won’t feel on the ground. The bulk of the cosmic rays comes from very far away, not from the local fluff.
Thank you Dr Svalgaard. I guess I’m just a bit confused because I thought the effects from the CME had already manifested here (the red alert).
I know you’ve addressed the question of cosmic rays from me before, so I’ll be happy with that. I just have this bad feeling there’s something out there that’s causing alot of problems and it isn’t the Sun (and of course it isn’t that Planet X nonsense).
I guess patience is a beautiful thing.
Suranda (11:56:07) :
I know you’ve addressed the question of cosmic rays from me before, so I’ll be happy with that.
In fact the CME on April 5th, caused a small drop in cosmic rays [called a Forbush Decrease]. You can see it here: http://www.leif.org/research/Neutron-Monitors-Real-Time.htm or here: http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/
Leif Svalgaard (12:14:21) :
Suranda (11:56:07) :
I know you’ve addressed the question of cosmic rays from me before, so I’ll be happy with that.
In fact the CME on April 5th, caused a small drop in cosmic rays [called a Forbush Decrease]. You can see it here: http://www.leif.org/research/Neutron-Monitors-Real-Time.htm or here: http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/
~
3 kinds of cosmic rays. Solar, galactic, anomalous.
If anomalous ACR are generated within the heliosphere due to interactions between heliosphere and interstellar, if interstellar density increases, wouldn’t this increase the amount of ACR generated?
Thank you Carla! Now I can finally get my head around this cosmic ray thing.
Looks like Charlie Parker had a pretty good understanding (for your admiration of good music, Carla!):
Cheers,
Suranda
Hey thanks Suranda, maybe needed a little sax, for the relax. Pretty frustrating when everytime you open a page places these days, it’s loaded with the little 3 letter, CO2 abbrev. arrgghh. Starting to cringe whenever I see it. Keep your head on tight. be around.