Spaceweather alert – first "red alert" in 6 years

From the Rice University Spaceweather listserver:

The listserver moderator writes in a separate email:

===================================

WOW – a real honest substorm coming!

As those in our “spacalrt” email listserver have just heard, the ACE spacecraft is measuring a high speed southward IMF, so the the Boyle Index (BI) went above 200 for the first time in a number of years!   If this level of solar wind continues (it is falling slowly), there will be geomagnetic activity with Kp of 5 or more in the next three hours, according to our neural net predictions.  Depending on how sustained the solar wind is, the prediction may go above 6… stay tuned!!  At the very least this may be the best event of the new solar cycle…  whew!

Unfortunately for skywatchers in the western hemisphere, we will be in daylight, but European and Asian colleagues should be on the lookout for auroras in the next few hours.

To watch the BI and our real-time 3 and 1-hour ahead Kp predictions, go to

http://space.rice.edu/ISTP/wind.html

(it also shows the “realtime” Kp estimates in red, which arrive well after our predictions for that time interval).

The Boyle index (BI) gives the value of the “asymptotic polar cap potential” – i.e. the value that the electric potential across the ionospheric flow WOULD get to if the solar wind is steady for 4 hours.  It does NOT include a saturation term, so it will overestimate the true potential for major storms.  However, since certain measures of geomagnetic activity don’t saturated, a

BI of 300 does imply a stronger storm than a BI of 200, even though the actual polar cap potential may turn out to be about the same because of saturation.

Our newest models also predict the AE index and Dst Index three hours in advance… but these predictions are not yet posted to our website, (Ramkumar is finishing up his thesis), but this event should be one that is the first good predictive test of his neural net predictions for those values.

For those not yet on our “spacalrt” email warning system, you can get free email warnings by sending an email to:

spacalrt-subscribe@mailman.rice.edu

It will send email if the BI goes over 200 or if the Kp prediction goes above 6.  This was our first “red alert” email in several years!

=============================

Unrelated to Rice U, but also of interest, is the recent plot of TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) by the SORCE spacecraft. – Anthony

0 0 votes
Article Rating
88 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
G.L. Alston
April 5, 2010 10:48 am

I take it that the ISS is alerted accordingly well before we are?

rogan
April 5, 2010 10:55 am

Large clouds over Sweden. Won’t be able to see it 🙁

R. Gates
April 5, 2010 11:01 am

Thanks for the update…
BTW, when looking at total solar irradiance, I find it most helpful to show a longer term chart, like here:
http://www.climate4you.com/Sun.htm#Recent solar irradiance
As the sun gets more active, with more spots, you’ll see these large spikes downward before rebounding back to higher levels. During the recent solar minimum the total solar irradiance didn’t have big spikes down or up, but stayed far more constant as the sunspots, as we all know, were few.
We are definitely in for a very interesting time with the sun over the next few years as Old Sol is waking up and I suspect will have a few surprises in store to complement the surprizing long and deep solar minimum we’ve just passed through…

April 5, 2010 11:01 am

The sun has suddenly become rather quiet again in terms of sunspots, I still don’t think we’ve escaped the ongoing minimum:
http://www.spaceweather.com/
Interesting stuff, thanks for posting, Anthony!

PJB
April 5, 2010 11:07 am

Over the weekend, I live 100 km north of Montreal and hoped to see aurorae due to the coronal holes of last week. Sadly, nothing occured and I won’t be back there (no urban light to spoil the show as the closest town is 10 km and it is only 1000 people or so)
It has been some 20 years since my last experience seeing an aurora so I am hoping the recent uptick in activity will provide some interesting phenomena. On the downside, with the ongoing fluctuations in the earth’s magnetic field, this may not be the best time for incoming radiation…

Enneagram
April 5, 2010 11:15 am

R. Gates (11:01:03) :
Old Sol is waking up and I suspect will have a few surprises in store to complement the surprizing long and deep solar minimum we’ve just passed through
“we’ve just passed through?????????”. NO!, didn’t you know that there is a time lag of 6 to 8 years? Surprises will be a bit different of what you expect.

Tenuc
April 5, 2010 11:27 am

It will be interesting to see how this pans out, I shall be out tonight looking for electrical effects, although I think I’m too far south to see anything even if it turns out to be a big one.
The drop of 0.6w/m^2 in TSI from it’s March 18 high seems quite rapid – I wonder if this has had anything to do with the late start to the Arctic sea ice decline?

red432
April 5, 2010 11:30 am

How can I change my lifestyle to solve this problem? If I buy an SUV will that increase or decrease the solar wind? And which way is bad?

Bill Parsons
April 5, 2010 11:43 am

As those in our “spacalrt” email listserver have just heard, the ACE spacecraft is measuring a high speed southward IMF, so the the Boyle Index (BI) went above 200 for the first time in a number of years! If this level of solar wind continues (it is falling slowly), there will be geomagnetic activity with Kp of 5 or more in the next three hours, according to our neural net predictions. Depending on how sustained the solar wind is, the prediction may go above 6… stay tuned!!

Perhaps someone could translate some of this.
Meanwhile, the pictures are nice…
http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery_01apr10_page2.htm?PHPSESSID=62pf5aiq49fodhbiip5eapnvs4

anna v
April 5, 2010 11:51 am

Re: CRS, Dr.P.H. (Apr 5 11:01),
No, the sun is not quiet. There are three sets of spots at the moment. They are just of small area, so maybe it is the Livingston and Penn effect at work.

Joel
April 5, 2010 11:53 am

CRS, Dr.P.H. (11:01:19) :
Not to mention the 10.7 wavelength radio flux is at 79, still very low. It seemed like it was rising a few weeks back along with larger, more robust spot groups. But now here we are with little specs dotting the sun, with radio flux in the 70s.
Not that I’m qualified in any way to offer an opinion on the subject. I’m just very fascinated by the subject and hope that Dr. Svalgaard and other studied contributors will be along shortly to feed my craving for info.

Peter Taylor
April 5, 2010 12:00 pm

Can anyone tell me where I can get an log of the UV signal separated from the TSI?

April 5, 2010 12:14 pm

Too much dust reflecting and scattering the surrounding lights to see anything — it’s 22:15 local, and I can read a newspaper outside.
Nuts. Last time I saw any decent aurora activity was in ’78.

bubbagyro
April 5, 2010 12:16 pm

I see a tiny little sunspot today, but the number on spaceweather says there are 40 spots? Watts up wid dat? Are they erring on the side of “more crazy sun make me happy”, or are they keeping the same standard?
Also, the speed of the wind is indeed high, but it is very cool. How does that compute?

Peter Pan
April 5, 2010 12:19 pm

The governing force is solar magnet field strength not the sunspots number.
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif

kadaka
April 5, 2010 12:21 pm

Could this be why cellphone reception was extra cruddy today? Just got done calling Verizon on my Verizon Wireless cellphone (three times total), had a really static-filled connection the one time.
Side note, Bureaucratic Insanity: They have a main cable strung across our property serving customers down the lane, supported by a power company pole in our back yard (public road was moved over a few decades ago), so they get the benefit of it. Over time trees have grown up and out, there are large branches that look likely to break off soon and knock it out. However, it is the property owner’s responsibility (they say) to take care of trees, so the property owners (us) have to maintain the space around the cable that they derive the benefit from having there (that one doesn’t serve our house) basically for the phone company’s benefit. Well, we can’t afford a tree surgeon to carefully trim those branches, the phone company technicians don’t do trimming… So we wait until the branches fall and take the cable out, inconveniencing lots of customers, then the technicians can come and put up a new one!
Does anyone here either know or is a sane phone company employee?

bikermailman
April 5, 2010 12:23 pm

The old Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times. We certainly do, and in the solar aspect, it must be great being a solar scientist!

Stephen Wilde
April 5, 2010 12:30 pm

Now what I want to know is whether this spike in solar activity is accompanied by a commensurate warming of the upper atmosphere and cooling of the stratosphere but I’m not sure whether our satellite sensors are capable of such a fine resolution given that in terms of late 20th century solar activity levels this is a puny event.

Robert A
April 5, 2010 12:36 pm

I don’t know if it means anything, but I just walked past a Toyota and it was making a sound like Darth Vader breathing.
“Vigo?” I called out, but the word was lost in the wind.

Allen C
April 5, 2010 12:42 pm

I wonder how many satellites will be negatively affected (damaged) by this IMF

Urederra
April 5, 2010 12:47 pm

a real honest substorm coming!

substorm or sunstorm?

Suranda
April 5, 2010 12:48 pm

First thing this morning I looked at the solar wind being 700+ and almost peed in my pants. I don’t know how the magnetosphere is going to keep it together with this kind of pressure:
http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/images/test_6.20100405193806.jpg
Check out the intensity here:
http://i42.tinypic.com/kbdu1u.jpg
I swear we are seeing the effects of that interstellar cloud.
I wish I could see how the heliosphere is doing about now.

wws
April 5, 2010 12:53 pm

hmmm, space substorm – isn’t this when time loops in on itself and evil Spock comes through a wormhole?

Enneagram
April 5, 2010 1:26 pm

Peter Pan (12:19:59) :
The governing force is solar magnet field strength not the sunspots number.
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif

And if the following extrapolation is considered, we are done!.☺
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PolarFields.gif

Suranda
April 5, 2010 1:30 pm

Dr Svalgaard, where are you? Yooohooo! We need you again please!

D. Patterson
April 5, 2010 1:32 pm

No, But Samantha Carter and SG-1 can time travel and/or travel the Multiverse.
Did you see the news story about Eloi being arrested at the Large Hadron Collider?

D. Patterson
April 5, 2010 1:48 pm

Let me guess…Al is going to announce that the Solar Wind disrupting the electrical grid and global communications are due to the Sunspots caused by Global Warming and Climate Change?

Jason Bair
April 5, 2010 2:02 pm

That TSI drop is significant. At first glance, that’s the lowest its been since early 2008.

Jerry
April 5, 2010 2:03 pm

I saw this in the movie 2012. Watch out! Next the neutrinos will mutate and melt the earth’s mantle. Get to China now!!!

kadaka
April 5, 2010 2:15 pm

Four female astronauts in space at once (a record), first spaceweather “red alert” in six years…
We need to explore this possible correlation and investigate whether causation can be demonstrated. More female astronauts are urgently needed for this vital research. Inform NASA it must immediately start a recruitment drive and aim for ever-increasing numbers of women in space for further measurements. The possible dangers of severe spaceweather are too great to allow this to go unstudied.
Oh, and NASA having their own way of actually transporting them to space would also be a good idea…

Suranda
April 5, 2010 2:27 pm
Gerry
April 5, 2010 2:54 pm

The solar magnetic field seems to be taking a nosedive:
http://leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-Latest.png
Leif, please explain what is happening.

April 5, 2010 2:56 pm

This is indeed the first serious magnetic storm of cycle 24. It is still only a moderate storm [K-index = 7; a really big storm has K-index = 9; the K-index is approximately logarithmic: a doubling of the storm amplitude adds another unit to the K-index]. The storm is caused by a CME in the form of a helical magnetic flux-rope still rooting in the Sun at both ends. At the front end of the approaching rope the field was pointing North, so not much reconnection happened and the effect was minor. The back-end had Southward pointing field and that feed energy into the magnetosphere. Because the event was short-lived and the magnetic field modest within the rope, the storm did not develop into an extreme event. There is an interesting twist to this: The North-South component of the heliomagnetic field [HMF] when it impacts the Earth controls largely the strength of the interaction. The result is an intensification of the auroral oval at [magnetic] latitude ~67 degrees [called a substorm; a big storm has several of these in succession] with magnetic effect underneath it. But the East-West component has a more subtle effect: it creates a vortex at much higher latitude [around 80 degrees], with a current flowing one way around the [magnetic] pole for one polarity [away or towards the Sun] of the HMF and the other way for the opposite polarity. The effect of this current can be bigger than the ‘normal’ substorm at the auroral zone. This was the case for today’s storm. The DMI operates a chain of magnetometers along the West Coast of Greenland. Here are records from these stations [first the horizontal component, on the next page the vertical component]. The ordinary substorm occurred around 9-10 hour UT and you can see it clearly in the five or so lower records [southern most stations]. As you proceed North [up] the substorm gets smaller ans smaller, because of increasing distance from the current [which flows at 100 km altitude], but another perturbation begins around 13h UT lasting several hours. This is the East-West effect [also called the Svalgaard-Mansurov effect after its discoverers – around 1967-1969]. On the next page, the effect is shown in the vertical component.
The S-M effect is always present, but rarely as clear and as large as today.
This little CME will travel out through a sector of the Heliosphere and add to the general turbulence, that eventually modulates cosmic rays.

April 5, 2010 3:01 pm

Forgot to include the link: http://www.leif.org/research/April-5th-Storm.pdf
Jason Bair (14:02:44) :
That TSI drop is significant. At first glance, that’s the lowest its been since early 2008.
Because last week there was a large and dark sunspot. TSI is already heading back up again:
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
or hi-res:
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-Latest.png

April 5, 2010 3:11 pm

Gerry (14:54:52) :
The solar magnetic field seems to be taking a nosedive:
Leif, please explain what is happening.

The solar magnetic field on my plots, see: http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
is just resuming its normal variation. The Mean Field [MF} is basically an average over low- and mid-latitude coronal holes. These are present most of the time and result from decaying sunspots, so when sunspots are scarce, the coronal holes die and the MF goes quiet. With sunspots coming back, coronal holes reform and the MF goes up. Because coronal holes are localized in longitude, the rotation of the sun, makes the MF go up and down.

April 5, 2010 3:21 pm

bubbagyro (12:16:58) :
Also, the speed of the wind is indeed high, but it is very cool. How does that compute?
In very general terms, the solar wind is expansion of the solar corona, and expanding gas cools. Reality is a bit more complicated: The faster solar wind also plows into the ambient slower wind, and compresses it on the front side of the CME, thus heating it there, so you see both cooling and heating. Look at the temperature curve [green] at the bottom of: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

bubbagyro
April 5, 2010 3:27 pm

No answer to my query.
I know magnetic fields are the best measure of solar intensity. My question has to do with calculation of sunspot number, and this is based on visual data.
Why is the number 40, when the latest group has disappeared over the horizon, and the new one is tiny? Are they using the same standard for calculation of the VISUAL sunspot number? If there is a change in algorithm used to calculate the number, or if they are using the European method now, I would like to know. Because some predictable events based on historical methods of counting would lose their thread to historic numbers, I fear.

April 5, 2010 3:44 pm

bubbagyro (15:27:48) :
No answer to my query.
There were at some point today three tiny groups on the sun, with about 10 small spots between them. The sunspot number is calculated as 10 * groups + spots, so 40 = 10*3 + 10.

johnnythelowery
April 5, 2010 3:44 pm

Well, if you drive a Toyota, you might want to stop and get out and legg it!
To Leif:
Perhaps i can ask a question? Leif: this one is for you. I was wondering if you’ve changed your mind about this statement…um…from New Scientist 2006 and if the article was discussed in a thread over here on WUWT
————————————————————-
‘…….The coming years could settle the sun’s role on temperatures once and for all. If the expected sunspot crash does takes place, Solanki’s work could receive dramatic confirmation. “Having a crash would certainly allow us to pin down the sun’s true level of influence on the Earth’s climate,” says Weiss.
None of this means that we can stop worrying about global warming caused by emissions into the atmosphere. “The temperature of the Earth in the past few decades does not correlate with solar activity at all,” Solanki says. He estimates that solar activity is responsible for only 30 per cent, at most, of the warming since 1970. The rest must be the result of man-made greenhouse gases, and a crash in solar activity won’t do anything to get rid of them.
What might happen is that the sun gives the planet a welcome respite from the ravages of man-made climate change – though for how long, nobody knows. During the Little Ice Age, the fall in average global temperature is estimated to have been less than 1 °C and lasted 70 years. The one before that persisted for 150 years, but a minor crash at the beginning of the 19th century lasted barely 30. For now, we will have to keep watching for falling sunspot numbers. “The deeper the crash, the longer it will last,” Weiss says.
There is a dangerous flip side to this coin. If global warming does slow down or partially reverse with a sunspot crash, industrial polluters and reluctant nations could use it as a justification for turning their backs on pollution controls altogether, makingmatters worse in the long run. There is no room for complacency, Svalgaard warns: “If the Earth does cool during the next sunspot crash and we do nothing, when the sun’s magnetic activity returns, global warming will return with a vengeance.”
From issue 2569 of New Scientist magazine, 18 September 2006, page 32-36
————————————————————-
I suppose my question is if you believe that….the warming will return once sun’s magnetic activity returns?? Cheers…. johnnnnny (I am not a spotty German. My German is spotty!!! : ) )

bubbagyro
April 5, 2010 3:56 pm

Thanks Dr. Svaalgard!
Bob G

bubbagyro
April 5, 2010 4:02 pm

BUT, it has been shown to this scientist’s satisfaction that CO2 does not correlate with warming, but is a result of it.
CO2 appears to be one of many buffer systems, like oscillations and Ninos and polar seesaw that keeps the earth in balance, but it does so at minimal levels of CO2. After that the absorption quenches.
Remember, we had much higher biota loads when CO2 was much higher in the past, and dinosaurs were larger to take advantage of plant high growth rates.
I would be very happy to see CO2 at a one part per thousand, as we have in the most productive greenhouses. Plants could accommodate drought much better, also.

EH
April 5, 2010 4:16 pm

To share a little less technical observation…last night around 11 pm, we observed a straight line aurora from our NNW horizon to the ESE. It was the width of my hand outstretched, brilliant, intense, not “flowing”, looking similar to a supersonic jet trail; however, it did not spread out and disperse. It continued for almost an hour, gradually diminishing at the horizons. There were minor, pale curtains of aurora in the NE during and afterward for another hour…when I retired for the night. I live in northern British Columbia. We hope to see more this evening…

April 5, 2010 4:20 pm

johnnythelowery (15:44:27) :
There is no room for complacency, Svalgaard warns: “If the Earth does cool during the next sunspot crash and we do nothing, when the sun’s magnetic activity returns, global warming will return with a vengeance.”
New Scientist did some cleaver writing back then. The ‘no room for complacency’ is their statement, not mine. The direct quote “if the Earth …”, is cleverly taken out of context as it was my response to their hypothetical: ‘assuming that solar activity had significant effect, then what would be the result of impending cooling during cycle 24 given that global warming was occurring?’
Lesson learned: be careful with what you say to a journalist and demand to see the report before publication.
So, the answer is that I have not changed my mind as no new information has come to light forcing such a change. In fact, the recent temperature anomalies [March Temps etc], might indicate that cycle 24 may not be the cause of the much heralded [but seemingly not happening] global cooling.

April 5, 2010 4:42 pm

Thanks, Leif! Always good to hear from you! Cheers!

West Houston
April 5, 2010 4:54 pm

Dr. Svalgaard always get me a little closer to an understanding of the Sun’s mysterious actions. I’m sure I won’t ever arrive at his level because he certainly takes much bigger steps than I do.

April 5, 2010 5:00 pm

West Houston (16:54:28) :
he certainly takes much bigger steps than I do.
A large stride can also be achieved by many small steps.

April 5, 2010 5:29 pm

With the solar wind high,geomagnetic storms raging and auroras at their recent peak, this was the best time to fly at high altitude across the pole:
therefore
Jean-Louis Etienne to cross North Pole in a rozière balloon
http://explorersweb.com/air/news.php?id=19219
”In embarking on this daring adventure, worthy of the novels of Jules Verne, I want to draw the world’s attention to: the shrinking of the Polar sea ice and its impact on the lifestyle of the native peoples of the North; the state of Arctic biodiversity; and the planet-wide climatic chaos that will ensue if the Polar ice disappears. The sea ice is the best indicator we have of the effectiveness of the measures that Man must take to curb global warming.”
Hal

April 5, 2010 5:39 pm

A petition drive on Etienne’s website contains this request:
URGENCE CLIMATIQUE !
The Council of the European Union, under the presidency of France, and the Principality of Monaco have joined forces to organise an international conference on the situation in the Arctic, involving representatives of the 17 member states of the European Union.
The aim of the conference is to set up an Arctic observatory to monitor, starting at the end of the International Polar Year, the long-term impact on the region of climate change and pollution.
Networking of data on this subject is a very positive initiative, but the rapid reduction in the polar ice creates an urgent need to address the causes of the problem too, i.e. to make every possible effort to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
The melting of the polar sea ice is already having a serious impact on the life of the indigenous peoples and on the polar ecosystem itself, and particularly on that symbol of the polar zone: the polar bear. But going beyond the local consequences, the disappearance of the sea ice at the North Pole will inevitably trigger a period of climatic chaos, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere.
Saving the sea ice is of great importance, and every inhabitant of our planet has a responsibility to take action. Saving the sea ice can be an indicator of Mankind’s ability to curb greenhouse gas emissions on a world scale.
France played a key role in bringing about the moratorium that currently ensures the protection of the Antarctic zone. It is my wish that France, which today holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, sends a strong signal to the international community, by urging the General Assembly of the United Nations to pass a resolution declaring the Arctic Ocean a “zone of common interest for all humanity”.
This is an important and non-partisan political initiative that will commit the international community without infringing the sovereignty of any country around the polar rim.
If you would like to express support for this initiative, we invite you to sign our on-line petition.
http://www.jeanlouisetienne.com/EN/
This might be worth a post.
Hal
Reply: Is there some reason you are unable to click on the Tips and Notes button above? ~ ctm

Suranda
April 5, 2010 5:49 pm

Dr Svalgaard, you know how much I respect you, dressed or undressed. But please dear friend of the Great Science of the Sun, explain how this paper written in the wee hours of 1978, is warning of the interstellar fluff. The Sun is going bezerkoroid, but what about the interstellar cloud:
http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1978ApJ…223..589V

John F. Hultquist
April 5, 2010 6:14 pm

Leif @16:20:33 Your answer to 15:44:27
You have added to my understanding today with your other responses and I thank you for that. The writer of the New Scientist article must have known what she/he was doing and should have been involuntary retired from the organization. I know reporters often get things wrong but this seems to go beyond incompetence. This is the first time I’ve encountered this particular episode and maybe you have explained it elsewhere. I hope so, but if not, I think it should be widely known.

Gerry
April 5, 2010 6:15 pm

Leif,
I see that the Mean Field (MF) was lower in 2008:
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
Also though, Figure 13 of http://leif.org/research/Heliospheric%20Magnetic%20Field%201835-2009.pdf shows the Heliospheric Magnetic Field B (HMFB) as being dramatically lower at the end of 2009. Is it not true that HMFB is closely related to solar wind strength? What is happening to HMFB in 2010?

johnnythelowery
April 5, 2010 6:18 pm

Leif: Cheers. I’ve never known the media to get it even closely right when i’ve known the actual source…and checked. Like here. Was what ever was left of your thoughts regurditated by the Gannet New Scientist discussed in a thread i can go to here at WUWT?
About my German. I tried to summarize the Der Spiegel articles thus:
————————————————————–
My German is a bit spotty, but, let me summarize:
Eein AGW Dumpfkoff Science Fraudenscheitz CRU fahrt un Frankenstein Jones. Schnitzel Mann mat un Convalute Data to Stick Hockey for Gore under table transact Billion Kroner/Deutsch with Carbon Credit sgeem. Attencion Alert Max +1.0c/100 yr GATA with Thermometer +/- .5 F accurate to Flugshaft Bomb Pattern WWI. Real Data and Science lookalike Smeagol. Like Tiger: PAtchy Morals, IPCC, CRU, Hardley Ever Center, GITS, Et. Al. prefer laissez-faire with Hot, even Hotter, loose models which niet reveal enigma. Nein to Smeagol, McKintyre, Lief and WUWT science! Disaster..Arctic, UK, EU, and USA all trap eh foit 2009. Re Ipsa (Science) Loquitor. Dankshun Herr Smeagol !

bubbagyro
April 5, 2010 6:57 pm

Hahaha!
Brilliant, Herr Schadenfreude! Das macht meine kennung sehr besser als alle die andere schmuckkaufspieler von CRU! Mit Lobster Bisque, also sprach Zarathustra.

April 5, 2010 7:00 pm

Suranda (17:49:00) :
this paper written in the wee hours of 1978, is warning of the interstellar fluff.
The paper suggests that we will enter the cloud in 10,000 years or so. at any rate this will be a slow protracted affair and will have little or no influence on the inner solar system as the supersonic solar wind is keeping such stuff well away from us.
Gerry (18:15:39) :
shows the Heliospheric Magnetic Field B (HMFB) as being dramatically lower at the end of 2009. Is it not true that HMFB is closely related to solar wind strength? What is happening to HMFB in 2010?
HMF B the last few years [the numbers can vary from spacecraft to spacecraft in the last decimal place]:
2006: 5.01 nT
2007: 4.49 nT
2008: 4.20 nT
2009: 4.05 nT
2010: 5.19 nT ==== preliminary and not representative for the whole year as the data only goes up to today.
Solar wind strength? not sure what you mean precisely. How to define ‘strength’? Here is the typical variation of solar wind parameters (B=magnetic field, V=speed, n=density) over a solar cycle [repeated several time to show the pattern] based on the last 11 cycles. B varies with the sunspot number. V and n have more complicated [but understood] variations. Note that the speed peaks just before minimum.
http://www.leif.org/research/Climatological%20Solar%20Wind.png

April 5, 2010 7:03 pm

johnnythelowery (18:18:41) :
Was what ever was left of your thoughts regurditated by the Gannet New Scientist discussed in a thread i can go to here at WUWT?
Try to translate it into German so I have a chance of understanding it. The English is a bit incoherent…

Weeble
April 5, 2010 7:40 pm

Quick, wrap your electronics in tinfoil!

Gerry
April 5, 2010 7:41 pm

Leif Svalgaard (19:00:58) :
Here is the typical variation of solar wind parameters (B=magnetic field, V=speed, n=density) over a solar cycle [repeated several time to show the pattern] based on the last 11 cycles. B varies with the sunspot number. V and n have more complicated [but understood] variations. Note that the speed peaks just before minimum.
http://www.leif.org/research/Climatological%20Solar%20Wind.png
Thank you. I see that n is negatively correlated with magnetic field strength and V is positively correlated, though a slight lag for V is evident.

April 5, 2010 7:56 pm

Gerry (19:41:56) :
Thank you. I see that n is negatively correlated with magnetic field strength and V is positively correlated, though a slight lag for V is evident.
The dip in n when V has a maximum is simply die to the solar wind being rather steady as regards its mass flux, so that a faster wind has to be thinner. V has its maximum just before solar minimum, when conditions for forming of low-latitude coronal holes are optimal.

johnnythelowery
April 5, 2010 8:09 pm

Lief:
————————————————————-
Leif Svalgaard (19:03:36) :
johnnythelowery (18:18:41) :
Was what ever was left of your thoughts regurditated by the Gannet New Scientist discussed in a thread i can go to here at WUWT?
Try to translate it into German so I have a chance of understanding it. The English is a bit incoherent…
——————————————————-
Was your article from 2006 @ New Scientist ever discussed on a thread here @ WUWT? So I can read it and not bother you with stupid questions (Gannet, the bird, caughs up pre-digested food for it’s young that looks nothing like the original! : …Good for Gannetts but not the press)? I have looked for it but couldn’t find anything. Thx

johnnythelowery
April 5, 2010 8:17 pm

Bubbagyro:
————————————————————-
bubbagyro (18:57:02) :
Hahaha!
Brilliant, Herr Schadenfreude! Das macht meine kennung sehr besser als alle die andere schmuckkaufspieler von CRU! Mit Lobster Bisque, also sprach Zarathustra.
————————————————————-Fantastic! Herr…..Scmukkaufspieler….
I am angling for the post of ‘German Bureau Correspondent @ WUWT’ appointment but i’ve got serious competition! There are just some feelings that are best expressed in German…no matter how incomprehensible my German is….I just feel like i’ve nailed it some how!

April 5, 2010 8:39 pm

johnnythelowery (20:09:52) :
Was your article from 2006 @ New Scientist ever discussed on a thread here @ WUWT?
Yes, I had a discussion with Harold Ambler about this somewhere on WUWT. Can’t find it right now. The Search function doesn’t work too well [or I’m not using it correctly]

April 6, 2010 12:15 am

My vote for quote of the week:
“What might happen is that the sun gives the planet a welcome respite from the ravages of man-made climate change”
which is actually from New Scientist 2006, courtesy johnnythelowery (15:44:27).
Oh the ravages. Would those be robust and rigorous ravages? Savage ravages? Is that where Rajendra got the idea for his bodice ripping novel? And thank goodness the sun winked out. Otherwise who knows how savage the ravages might have been…

April 6, 2010 1:16 am

Here you can see the [temporary] extra screening of cosmic rays the flux rope gave us: http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/ called a Forbush Decrease.

Tenuc
April 6, 2010 4:44 am

Went out several times last night, but no signs of anything unusual. It has to be a very large event to be visible in the UK.

johnnythelowery
April 6, 2010 5:08 am

Lief: I was feeling pretty smug telling everyone 2009/10 was going to be a bad winter because of the solar dip based on this article. I accept that probably none of it is accurate. But, if i may just pick your brains and I’m Mr. Layman.
1. Has Weiss gotten his ‘crash’?
2. Has Solanki been able to determine ‘the sun’s role’?
3. It’s been almost 5 years since it was published…have we learned anything since?
4. Who are these guys Weiss and Solanki? do they post over here?
Thanks Leif.
————————————————————-
From that New Scientist article:
‘…….The coming years could settle the sun’s role on temperatures once and for all. If the expected sunspot crash does takes place, Solanki’s work could receive dramatic confirmation. “Having a crash would certainly allow us to pin down the sun’s true level of influence on the Earth’s climate,” says Weiss
————————————————————-

April 6, 2010 7:34 am

johnnythelowery (05:08:00) :
1. Has Weiss gotten his ‘crash’?
Not yet
2. Has Solanki been able to determine ‘the sun’s role’?
Not yet
3. It’s been almost 5 years since it was published…have we learned anything since?
Yes, so below
4. Who are these guys Weiss and Solanki? do they post over here?
They are respected [and respectable] solar physicists. Respectable scientists do not blog, as such activity is viewed with a bit of disdain.
About the crash: cycle 23 was already a bit lower than cycle 22 and yet the past decade was one of the warmest in recent memory, although the solar influence enthusiasts would have expected some cooling. in 2005, it was widely believed that the next cycle [24] would be one of the biggest ever and that therefore temperatures would soar. The reason I was interviewed was that I was one of the few who predicted a very small cycle 24 http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf and possibly a series of smaller cycles This was the ‘crash’ that was referred to. We said in that paper: “Such low cycles will be important for calibration of various empirical relationships between solar and interplanetary conditions and terrestrial phenomena, many of those derived during intervals of rather high solar activity”
Since the maximum of cycle 24 is still some years away we do not yet know if the predictions of a crash are accurate [although they look good at this point], so we can’t verify/deny the role of the Sun. Ask me again in 10 years time 🙂
What have we learned? Many details, of course. As far as the bigger picture is concerned, we have experienced low solar/interplanetary activities not seen in a century and have already been able [and are working on] to integrate some of those observations into our ‘standard’ model of how it all hangs together. Many of those will be discussed at an upcoming meeting in May http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2010ScienceMeeting/ click here for details: http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2010ScienceMeeting/agendas.html#speakers

Bill Parsons
April 6, 2010 7:47 am

johnnythelowery (05:08:00) :

4. Who are these guys Weiss and Solanki? do they post over here?

Solanki is Director of the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research
http://www.mps.mpg.de/en/forschung/sonne/mitarbeiter.html

Bill Parsons
April 6, 2010 7:53 am

Solanki publications:
http://www.mps.mpg.de/homes/solanki/

April 6, 2010 8:18 am

Bill Parsons (07:53:41) :
Solanki publications
It is interesting to note that both Solanki and Weiss claim that they have also been misquoted. They [now] say they are strong believers in AGW.

Bill Parsons
April 6, 2010 9:20 am

Leif,

Solanki publications
It is interesting to note that both Solanki and Weiss claim that they have also been misquoted. They [now] say they are strong believers in AGW.

Yes, I saw the disclaimer, in bold, colored type, prominently displayed on Solanki’s web page. He wants people to know he (still) toes the line.

April 6, 2010 10:07 am

Bill Parsons (09:20:59) :
Yes, I saw the disclaimer, in bold, colored type, prominently displayed on Solanki’s web page. He wants people to know he (still) toes the line.
Weiss too: http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/now/

johnnythelowery
April 6, 2010 10:10 am

Leif:
It’s interresting that they can talk to the New Scientist and other MSM which just
does what they will with what is said but on a blog like here where they can say it the way the see it, it is frowned upon. Someday, NASA, Plancks, et al. will see the Blog as just another form of communication….like the Telegraph. But what New Scientist did there was one of the most eggregious misrepresentations which almost borders on Libel. I’ve had it since 2008 but never made the connection with you here but i’ve been telling everyone who’d listen, mostly my 9 year old son, the premise of the article! I’d like to see Anthony post it and let you set the record straight. Much thanks anyway and looking forward to your thoughts from the May meetings. Please let us know. Best regards, Johhnnnnny

MartinGAtkins
April 6, 2010 11:47 am

Peter Taylor (12:00:12) :
Can anyone tell me where I can get an log of the UV signal separated from the TSI?
I’m not sure if this is what you want, but you can get the wavelength analysis of TSI here.
http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/sorce/sorce_ssi/ts.html

Dan (Norway)
April 6, 2010 2:45 pm
Carla
April 6, 2010 6:38 pm

Leif Svalgaard (14:56:38) :
This is indeed the first serious magnetic storm of cycle 24. It is still only a moderate storm [K-index = 7; a really big storm has K-index = 9; the K-index is approximately logarithmic: a doubling of the storm amplitude adds another unit to the K-index]. .
~
Thanks Leif. Why is it that your observations read so much better than that of Group W? lol hahaha

April 6, 2010 6:59 pm

Carla (18:38:04) :
Thanks Leif. Why is it that your observations read so much better than that of Group W?
‘Cause I’m da man!

johnnythelowery
April 7, 2010 6:04 am

Leif and Bill and everyone here:
BBC 2 let Brian Cox loose with a budget and he came up with ‘Wonders of the Solar System” a 5- part documentary available over at Youtube
It’s a good accretion of the graphics and film clips. You can cut and paste this link.
http://www.youtube.com/user/AnonH5N1

johnnythelowery
April 7, 2010 6:41 am

Leif:
Were you succesful in getting the minimum named as a ‘Eddy Minimum’?
The Amazon River/Solar correlation is asserted in this part of 3 of Episode one.
Which you may or may not find interesting, or worse.

johnnythelowery
April 7, 2010 6:43 am

johnnythelowery
April 7, 2010 6:45 am

April 7, 2010 6:58 am

johnnythelowery (06:41:10) :
Were you succesful in getting the minimum named as a ‘Eddy Minimum’?
We only name ‘significant’ minima and it is not certain that the current one will qualify. In 30 years time we’ll know.

Suranda
April 7, 2010 8:42 am

The Sun is still exhibiting very low activity, correct Leif dahling? So what’s with all the pressure on our magnetosphere:
http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/
What is hitting us so vehemently? Cosmic rays from the local fluff?
And why all the earthquake activity? I can’t apply my woo-woo understanding that the sunspots create earthquakes, now can I? Is it connected with the big bang collider and finally getting their particle to wham bam thank you mam?

April 7, 2010 9:05 am

Suranda (08:42:05) :
The Sun is still exhibiting very low activity, correct Leif dahling? So what’s with all the pressure on our magnetosphere:
What is hitting us so vehemently? Cosmic rays from the local fluff?

We were ‘hit’ by a coronal mass ejection from the Sun. These can occur at any time [although much more often at solar maximum]. Cosmic rays don’t do anything to the magnetosphere, except being instrumental in slowly [perhaps hundreds of years] eating away at the inner radiation belt, which we won’t feel on the ground. The bulk of the cosmic rays comes from very far away, not from the local fluff.

Suranda
April 7, 2010 11:56 am

Thank you Dr Svalgaard. I guess I’m just a bit confused because I thought the effects from the CME had already manifested here (the red alert).
I know you’ve addressed the question of cosmic rays from me before, so I’ll be happy with that. I just have this bad feeling there’s something out there that’s causing alot of problems and it isn’t the Sun (and of course it isn’t that Planet X nonsense).
I guess patience is a beautiful thing.

April 7, 2010 12:14 pm

Suranda (11:56:07) :
I know you’ve addressed the question of cosmic rays from me before, so I’ll be happy with that.
In fact the CME on April 5th, caused a small drop in cosmic rays [called a Forbush Decrease]. You can see it here: http://www.leif.org/research/Neutron-Monitors-Real-Time.htm or here: http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/

Carla
April 7, 2010 6:25 pm

Leif Svalgaard (12:14:21) :
Suranda (11:56:07) :
I know you’ve addressed the question of cosmic rays from me before, so I’ll be happy with that.
In fact the CME on April 5th, caused a small drop in cosmic rays [called a Forbush Decrease]. You can see it here: http://www.leif.org/research/Neutron-Monitors-Real-Time.htm or here: http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/
~
3 kinds of cosmic rays. Solar, galactic, anomalous.
If anomalous ACR are generated within the heliosphere due to interactions between heliosphere and interstellar, if interstellar density increases, wouldn’t this increase the amount of ACR generated?

Suranda
April 8, 2010 5:23 am

Thank you Carla! Now I can finally get my head around this cosmic ray thing.
Looks like Charlie Parker had a pretty good understanding (for your admiration of good music, Carla!):

Cheers,
Suranda

Carla
April 8, 2010 11:55 am

Hey thanks Suranda, maybe needed a little sax, for the relax. Pretty frustrating when everytime you open a page places these days, it’s loaded with the little 3 letter, CO2 abbrev. arrgghh. Starting to cringe whenever I see it. Keep your head on tight. be around.

%d bloggers like this: