From the Rice University Spaceweather listserver:
The listserver moderator writes in a separate email:
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WOW – a real honest substorm coming!
As those in our “spacalrt” email listserver have just heard, the ACE spacecraft is measuring a high speed southward IMF, so the the Boyle Index (BI) went above 200 for the first time in a number of years! If this level of solar wind continues (it is falling slowly), there will be geomagnetic activity with Kp of 5 or more in the next three hours, according to our neural net predictions. Depending on how sustained the solar wind is, the prediction may go above 6… stay tuned!! At the very least this may be the best event of the new solar cycle… whew!
Unfortunately for skywatchers in the western hemisphere, we will be in daylight, but European and Asian colleagues should be on the lookout for auroras in the next few hours.
To watch the BI and our real-time 3 and 1-hour ahead Kp predictions, go to
(it also shows the “realtime” Kp estimates in red, which arrive well after our predictions for that time interval).
The Boyle index (BI) gives the value of the “asymptotic polar cap potential” – i.e. the value that the electric potential across the ionospheric flow WOULD get to if the solar wind is steady for 4 hours. It does NOT include a saturation term, so it will overestimate the true potential for major storms. However, since certain measures of geomagnetic activity don’t saturated, a
BI of 300 does imply a stronger storm than a BI of 200, even though the actual polar cap potential may turn out to be about the same because of saturation.
For those not yet on our “spacalrt” email warning system, you can get free email warnings by sending an email to:
spacalrt-subscribe@mailman.rice.edu
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Unrelated to Rice U, but also of interest, is the recent plot of TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) by the SORCE spacecraft. – Anthony
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No, But Samantha Carter and SG-1 can time travel and/or travel the Multiverse.
Did you see the news story about Eloi being arrested at the Large Hadron Collider?
Let me guess…Al is going to announce that the Solar Wind disrupting the electrical grid and global communications are due to the Sunspots caused by Global Warming and Climate Change?
That TSI drop is significant. At first glance, that’s the lowest its been since early 2008.
I saw this in the movie 2012. Watch out! Next the neutrinos will mutate and melt the earth’s mantle. Get to China now!!!
Four female astronauts in space at once (a record), first spaceweather “red alert” in six years…
We need to explore this possible correlation and investigate whether causation can be demonstrated. More female astronauts are urgently needed for this vital research. Inform NASA it must immediately start a recruitment drive and aim for ever-increasing numbers of women in space for further measurements. The possible dangers of severe spaceweather are too great to allow this to go unstudied.
Oh, and NASA having their own way of actually transporting them to space would also be a good idea…
Squatter man did it.
http://www.theplasmaverse.com/verse/squatterman-plasmadischarges-petroglyphs.html
The solar magnetic field seems to be taking a nosedive:
http://leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-Latest.png
Leif, please explain what is happening.
This is indeed the first serious magnetic storm of cycle 24. It is still only a moderate storm [K-index = 7; a really big storm has K-index = 9; the K-index is approximately logarithmic: a doubling of the storm amplitude adds another unit to the K-index]. The storm is caused by a CME in the form of a helical magnetic flux-rope still rooting in the Sun at both ends. At the front end of the approaching rope the field was pointing North, so not much reconnection happened and the effect was minor. The back-end had Southward pointing field and that feed energy into the magnetosphere. Because the event was short-lived and the magnetic field modest within the rope, the storm did not develop into an extreme event. There is an interesting twist to this: The North-South component of the heliomagnetic field [HMF] when it impacts the Earth controls largely the strength of the interaction. The result is an intensification of the auroral oval at [magnetic] latitude ~67 degrees [called a substorm; a big storm has several of these in succession] with magnetic effect underneath it. But the East-West component has a more subtle effect: it creates a vortex at much higher latitude [around 80 degrees], with a current flowing one way around the [magnetic] pole for one polarity [away or towards the Sun] of the HMF and the other way for the opposite polarity. The effect of this current can be bigger than the ‘normal’ substorm at the auroral zone. This was the case for today’s storm. The DMI operates a chain of magnetometers along the West Coast of Greenland. Here are records from these stations [first the horizontal component, on the next page the vertical component]. The ordinary substorm occurred around 9-10 hour UT and you can see it clearly in the five or so lower records [southern most stations]. As you proceed North [up] the substorm gets smaller ans smaller, because of increasing distance from the current [which flows at 100 km altitude], but another perturbation begins around 13h UT lasting several hours. This is the East-West effect [also called the Svalgaard-Mansurov effect after its discoverers – around 1967-1969]. On the next page, the effect is shown in the vertical component.
The S-M effect is always present, but rarely as clear and as large as today.
This little CME will travel out through a sector of the Heliosphere and add to the general turbulence, that eventually modulates cosmic rays.
Forgot to include the link: http://www.leif.org/research/April-5th-Storm.pdf
Jason Bair (14:02:44) :
That TSI drop is significant. At first glance, that’s the lowest its been since early 2008.
Because last week there was a large and dark sunspot. TSI is already heading back up again:
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
or hi-res:
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-Latest.png
Gerry (14:54:52) :
The solar magnetic field seems to be taking a nosedive:
Leif, please explain what is happening.
The solar magnetic field on my plots, see: http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
is just resuming its normal variation. The Mean Field [MF} is basically an average over low- and mid-latitude coronal holes. These are present most of the time and result from decaying sunspots, so when sunspots are scarce, the coronal holes die and the MF goes quiet. With sunspots coming back, coronal holes reform and the MF goes up. Because coronal holes are localized in longitude, the rotation of the sun, makes the MF go up and down.
bubbagyro (12:16:58) :
Also, the speed of the wind is indeed high, but it is very cool. How does that compute?
In very general terms, the solar wind is expansion of the solar corona, and expanding gas cools. Reality is a bit more complicated: The faster solar wind also plows into the ambient slower wind, and compresses it on the front side of the CME, thus heating it there, so you see both cooling and heating. Look at the temperature curve [green] at the bottom of: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
No answer to my query.
I know magnetic fields are the best measure of solar intensity. My question has to do with calculation of sunspot number, and this is based on visual data.
Why is the number 40, when the latest group has disappeared over the horizon, and the new one is tiny? Are they using the same standard for calculation of the VISUAL sunspot number? If there is a change in algorithm used to calculate the number, or if they are using the European method now, I would like to know. Because some predictable events based on historical methods of counting would lose their thread to historic numbers, I fear.
bubbagyro (15:27:48) :
No answer to my query.
There were at some point today three tiny groups on the sun, with about 10 small spots between them. The sunspot number is calculated as 10 * groups + spots, so 40 = 10*3 + 10.
Well, if you drive a Toyota, you might want to stop and get out and legg it!
To Leif:
Perhaps i can ask a question? Leif: this one is for you. I was wondering if you’ve changed your mind about this statement…um…from New Scientist 2006 and if the article was discussed in a thread over here on WUWT
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‘…….The coming years could settle the sun’s role on temperatures once and for all. If the expected sunspot crash does takes place, Solanki’s work could receive dramatic confirmation. “Having a crash would certainly allow us to pin down the sun’s true level of influence on the Earth’s climate,” says Weiss.
None of this means that we can stop worrying about global warming caused by emissions into the atmosphere. “The temperature of the Earth in the past few decades does not correlate with solar activity at all,” Solanki says. He estimates that solar activity is responsible for only 30 per cent, at most, of the warming since 1970. The rest must be the result of man-made greenhouse gases, and a crash in solar activity won’t do anything to get rid of them.
What might happen is that the sun gives the planet a welcome respite from the ravages of man-made climate change – though for how long, nobody knows. During the Little Ice Age, the fall in average global temperature is estimated to have been less than 1 °C and lasted 70 years. The one before that persisted for 150 years, but a minor crash at the beginning of the 19th century lasted barely 30. For now, we will have to keep watching for falling sunspot numbers. “The deeper the crash, the longer it will last,” Weiss says.
There is a dangerous flip side to this coin. If global warming does slow down or partially reverse with a sunspot crash, industrial polluters and reluctant nations could use it as a justification for turning their backs on pollution controls altogether, makingmatters worse in the long run. There is no room for complacency, Svalgaard warns: “If the Earth does cool during the next sunspot crash and we do nothing, when the sun’s magnetic activity returns, global warming will return with a vengeance.”
From issue 2569 of New Scientist magazine, 18 September 2006, page 32-36
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I suppose my question is if you believe that….the warming will return once sun’s magnetic activity returns?? Cheers…. johnnnnny (I am not a spotty German. My German is spotty!!! : ) )
Thanks Dr. Svaalgard!
Bob G
BUT, it has been shown to this scientist’s satisfaction that CO2 does not correlate with warming, but is a result of it.
CO2 appears to be one of many buffer systems, like oscillations and Ninos and polar seesaw that keeps the earth in balance, but it does so at minimal levels of CO2. After that the absorption quenches.
Remember, we had much higher biota loads when CO2 was much higher in the past, and dinosaurs were larger to take advantage of plant high growth rates.
I would be very happy to see CO2 at a one part per thousand, as we have in the most productive greenhouses. Plants could accommodate drought much better, also.
To share a little less technical observation…last night around 11 pm, we observed a straight line aurora from our NNW horizon to the ESE. It was the width of my hand outstretched, brilliant, intense, not “flowing”, looking similar to a supersonic jet trail; however, it did not spread out and disperse. It continued for almost an hour, gradually diminishing at the horizons. There were minor, pale curtains of aurora in the NE during and afterward for another hour…when I retired for the night. I live in northern British Columbia. We hope to see more this evening…
johnnythelowery (15:44:27) :
There is no room for complacency, Svalgaard warns: “If the Earth does cool during the next sunspot crash and we do nothing, when the sun’s magnetic activity returns, global warming will return with a vengeance.”
New Scientist did some cleaver writing back then. The ‘no room for complacency’ is their statement, not mine. The direct quote “if the Earth …”, is cleverly taken out of context as it was my response to their hypothetical: ‘assuming that solar activity had significant effect, then what would be the result of impending cooling during cycle 24 given that global warming was occurring?’
Lesson learned: be careful with what you say to a journalist and demand to see the report before publication.
So, the answer is that I have not changed my mind as no new information has come to light forcing such a change. In fact, the recent temperature anomalies [March Temps etc], might indicate that cycle 24 may not be the cause of the much heralded [but seemingly not happening] global cooling.
Thanks, Leif! Always good to hear from you! Cheers!
Dr. Svalgaard always get me a little closer to an understanding of the Sun’s mysterious actions. I’m sure I won’t ever arrive at his level because he certainly takes much bigger steps than I do.
West Houston (16:54:28) :
he certainly takes much bigger steps than I do.
A large stride can also be achieved by many small steps.
With the solar wind high,geomagnetic storms raging and auroras at their recent peak, this was the best time to fly at high altitude across the pole:
therefore
Jean-Louis Etienne to cross North Pole in a rozière balloon
http://explorersweb.com/air/news.php?id=19219
”In embarking on this daring adventure, worthy of the novels of Jules Verne, I want to draw the world’s attention to: the shrinking of the Polar sea ice and its impact on the lifestyle of the native peoples of the North; the state of Arctic biodiversity; and the planet-wide climatic chaos that will ensue if the Polar ice disappears. The sea ice is the best indicator we have of the effectiveness of the measures that Man must take to curb global warming.”
Hal
A petition drive on Etienne’s website contains this request:
URGENCE CLIMATIQUE !
The Council of the European Union, under the presidency of France, and the Principality of Monaco have joined forces to organise an international conference on the situation in the Arctic, involving representatives of the 17 member states of the European Union.
The aim of the conference is to set up an Arctic observatory to monitor, starting at the end of the International Polar Year, the long-term impact on the region of climate change and pollution.
Networking of data on this subject is a very positive initiative, but the rapid reduction in the polar ice creates an urgent need to address the causes of the problem too, i.e. to make every possible effort to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
The melting of the polar sea ice is already having a serious impact on the life of the indigenous peoples and on the polar ecosystem itself, and particularly on that symbol of the polar zone: the polar bear. But going beyond the local consequences, the disappearance of the sea ice at the North Pole will inevitably trigger a period of climatic chaos, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere.
Saving the sea ice is of great importance, and every inhabitant of our planet has a responsibility to take action. Saving the sea ice can be an indicator of Mankind’s ability to curb greenhouse gas emissions on a world scale.
France played a key role in bringing about the moratorium that currently ensures the protection of the Antarctic zone. It is my wish that France, which today holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, sends a strong signal to the international community, by urging the General Assembly of the United Nations to pass a resolution declaring the Arctic Ocean a “zone of common interest for all humanity”.
This is an important and non-partisan political initiative that will commit the international community without infringing the sovereignty of any country around the polar rim.
If you would like to express support for this initiative, we invite you to sign our on-line petition.
http://www.jeanlouisetienne.com/EN/
This might be worth a post.
Hal
Reply: Is there some reason you are unable to click on the Tips and Notes button above? ~ ctm
Dr Svalgaard, you know how much I respect you, dressed or undressed. But please dear friend of the Great Science of the Sun, explain how this paper written in the wee hours of 1978, is warning of the interstellar fluff. The Sun is going bezerkoroid, but what about the interstellar cloud:
http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1978ApJ…223..589V
Leif @16:20:33 Your answer to 15:44:27
You have added to my understanding today with your other responses and I thank you for that. The writer of the New Scientist article must have known what she/he was doing and should have been involuntary retired from the organization. I know reporters often get things wrong but this seems to go beyond incompetence. This is the first time I’ve encountered this particular episode and maybe you have explained it elsewhere. I hope so, but if not, I think it should be widely known.