Guest post by Steven Goddard
(UK Pic Photo: NASA/GSFC, MODIS Rapid Response)
England, Scotland and Wales completely covered in snow, January, 2010
In my last article, I discussed the current theory that global warming is going to turn England into a tropical paradise. And ten years ago we were told by The Met Office that “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.” But five years ago the theory was that global warming will turn England into a frozen wasteland.
THE Gulf Stream currents that give Britain its mild climate have weakened dramatically, offering the first firm scientific evidence of a slowdown that threatens the country with temperatures as cold as Canada’s.
The Atlantic Ocean “conveyor belt” that carries warm water north from the tropics has weakened by 30 per cent in 12 years, scientists have discovered. The findings, from the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton, give the strongest indication yet that Europe’s central heating system is breaking down under the impact of global warming.
Scientists have long predicted that melting ice caps could disrupt the currents that keep Britain at least 5C (40F) warmer than it should be, but the new research suggests that this is already under way. It points to a cooling of 1C over the next decade or two, and an even deeper freeze could follow if the Gulf Stream system were to shut down altogether.
The British Isles lie on the same latitude as Labrador on the East Coast of Canada, and are protected from a similarly icy climate by the Atlantic conveyor belt, which carries a million billion watts of heat. Although oceanographers still think it unlikely that the currents will stop completely, this could reduce average temperatures by between 4C and 6C in as little as 20 years, far outweighing any increase predicted as a result of global warming.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article598464.ece
What the scientists were saying is that the melting Arctic is going to flood the North Atlantic with cold fresh water, and will slow down the Gulf Stream. The BBC explained it like this :
Global Warming will cause the Greenland ice cap to melt which, when combined with increased rainfall at high latitudes, will potentially disrupt the THC by adding freshwater and decreasing sea water salinity in the North Atlantic…. Winters would be much colder than now “along the lines of the winter of 1962-1963” suggests Jenkins, with summers being cooler and shorter. This would have many social implications including (not surprisingly!) transport and agriculture. 3-4°C may not sound much, but the average air temperature difference between the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ when vineyards thrived in southern England and the ‘Little Ice Age’ when the River Thames regularly froze over was only 1-2°C.
Sun photo : English cars buried in global warming
The Guardian explained it like this:
“Based on climate simulations we think that UK winters would be around 5-10C colder on average if the Gulf Stream shut down,” says Michael Vellinga, of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. For those who can remember back that far, this would make the average UK winter feel more like 1963, when February temperatures hovered around -5 C.
So here is the climate cycle timeline:
- 2000 – Snowfalls are a thing of the past in Britain
- 2005 – Britain to turn into a frozen wasteland
- 2010 – Britain to become a tropical paradise like Portugal
Climate science in England shows a statistically significant cycle, alternating between tropical forecasts and ice age forecasts every five years.
What do readers think?
England’s Five Year Climate Forecast Cycle
England, Scotland and Wales completely covered in snow, January, 2010
In my last article, I discussed the current theory that global warming is going to turn England into a tropical paradise. And ten years ago we were told by The Met Office that “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.” But five years ago the theory was that global warming will turn England into a frozen wasteland.
THE Gulf Stream currents that give Britain its mild climate have weakened dramatically, offering the first firm scientific evidence of a slowdown that threatens the country with temperatures as cold as Canada’s.
The Atlantic Ocean “conveyor belt” that carries warm water north from the tropics has weakened by 30 per cent in 12 years, scientists have discovered. The findings, from the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton, give the strongest indication yet that Europe’s central heating system is breaking down under the impact of global warming.
Scientists have long predicted that melting ice caps could disrupt the currents that keep Britain at least 5C (40F) warmer than it should be, but the new research suggests that this is already under way. It points to a cooling of 1C over the next decade or two, and an even deeper freeze could follow if the Gulf Stream system were to shut down altogether.
The British Isles lie on the same latitude as Labrador on the East Coast of Canada, and are protected from a similarly icy climate by the Atlantic conveyor belt, which carries a million billion watts of heat. Although oceanographers still think it unlikely that the currents will stop completely, this could reduce average temperatures by between 4C and 6C in as little as 20 years, far outweighing any increase predicted as a result of global warming.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article598464.ece
What the scientists were saying is that the melting Arctic is going to flood the North Atlantic with cold fresh water, and will slow down the Gulf Stream. The BBC explained it like this :
Global Warming will cause the Greenland ice cap to melt which, when combined with increased rainfall at high latitudes, will potentially disrupt the THC by adding freshwater and decreasing sea water salinity in the North Atlantic…. Winters would be much colder than now “along the lines of the winter of 1962-1963” suggests Jenkins, with summers being cooler and shorter. This would have many social implications including (not surprisingly!) transport and agriculture. 3-4°C may not sound much, but the average air temperature difference between the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ when vineyards thrived in southern England and the ‘Little Ice Age’ when the River Thames regularly froze over was only 1-2°C.
Sun photo : English cars buried in global warming
The Guardian explained it like this:
“Based on climate simulations we think that UK winters would be around 5-10C colder on average if the Gulf Stream shut down,” says Michael Vellinga, of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. For those who can remember back that far, this would make the average UK winter feel more like 1963, when February temperatures hovered around -5 C.
So here is the climate cycle timeline:
2000 – Snowfalls are a thing of the past in Britain
2005 – Britain to turn into a frozen wasteland
2010 – Britain to become a tropical paradise like Portugal
Climate science in England shows a statistically significant cycle, alternating between tropical forecasts and ice age forecasts every five years.
What do readers think?
1. Ice age for the UK
2. Tropical paradise for the UK
3. Just the usual cold, rainy mess
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I know correlation is not causation but… the frozen wasteland prediction came just a year after The Day After Tomorrow.
Willis Eschenbach (01:14:57) :
Probably worth noting that the Meridional Overturning current is not shutting down …
As Journalists like to say, ” Never let the facts ruin a good story.”
National Trust campaign highlights how gardens will look if global warming brings Mediterranean weather to Britain:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1260213/National-Trust-campaign-highlights-gardens-look-global-warming-brings-Mediterranean-weather-Britain.html#
Who says the Arctic is melting?…data does not back it up. The Arctic has been recovering from all reports I have seen.
Is the “political” climate going to change in the UK?
If you don’t like the climate forecast, wait 5 years and it will change.
No way> They say it is CO2 and nothing else. Currents? Can’t be. The vancouver Olympics were warm because of a warm ocean current nearby. Accross the mountans but still not far away, it hit 46 below in Edmonton.
“at least 5C (40F) warmer than it should be”
Who wrote this crap? They don’t know how to convert celsius to farenheit.
A 5C increase is a 9F increase. They confused absolute temperature with temperature changes.
Well, if their models predict that “UK winters would be around 5-10C colder on average if the Gulf Stream shut down” then that would explain why their seasonal forecasts are always utter garbage.
The idea that the British Isles are protected from a Northern Canada style winter by the Gulf Stream is one of those urban legends that goes round and round and is accepted as fact simply because – it goes round and round.
I first wondered about this proposition after I first heard the Gulf stream panic 5 years ago. I remember being on holiday in SW Wales and wading into the supposedly warmed Gulf Stream waters only to be rudely disabused of my notions. It was pretty damn cold. How much colder would it be if the Gulf stream shut down? I don’t know, but I do know it wouldn’t be any colder than 4C, the average winter sea temperatures on the East coast.
And that is the bottom line. The British Isles are protected from Canadian style winters because they enjoy maritime climate – the wind predominately blows from the Atlantic. The only time Britain gets cold winters is when polar air masses or Russian continental air masses move in. The winter will always be (in fact must be) above freezing when the Atlantic air masses move in, regardless of what the Gulf stream does or does not do.
As long as the Earth spins on it’s axis, the oceans will circulate.
N’est-ce pas?
Sorry: ‘…its axis’.
Just an observation … if the gulf stream stops – why the hell would Greenland melt ….
Obama is set on forcing Cap & Trade onto a disbelieving public.
This is from a leading American commentater today in the Sunday Times:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article7078817.ece
“…On to energy and education, both on Obama’s “transformation” list. Congressional reluctance to give the president the cap-and-trade legislation he wants is no longer an obstacle to his plans to confront climate change. The Environmental Protection Agency already has wide powers to reduce carbon emissions, and the president has shown in the healthcare fight that voter opposition cannot deflect him from his drive to change America. He will do by rule what he cannot get from the votes of the people’s representatives.”
So there you have it. One way or another C&T is coming, whether you like it or not.
==============================================
An interesting article is hiding away deep in the labyrinths of the Observer today, and it’s all about how this world-wide carbon taxation plan is going to be put back on track after the Copenhagen train wreck.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/mar/28/un-climate-change-meeting-london
What is of major concern to believers in freedom and democracy is that the prime movers of this process are not environmentalists, but bankers and financiers who seem to have most politicians by the balls. Notice the word “paymasters” below:
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“…Some of the planet’s most powerful paymasters will gather in London on Wednesday to discuss a nagging financial problem: how to raise a trillion dollars for the developing world. Those charged with achieving this daunting goal will include Gordon Brown, directors of several central banks, the billionaire philanthropist George Soros, the economist Lord (Nicholas) Stern and Larry Summers, President Obama’s chief economics adviser…
…As an array of expertise, it is formidable: but then so is the task they have been set by the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon. In effect, the world’s top financiers have been told to work out how to raise at least $100bn a year for the rest of this decade, cash that will be used to help the world’s poorest countries adapt to climate change…
…Consider the US. Obama – fresh from his successes in passing his health bill and his nuclear arms talks with Russia – has indicated he is turning his attention to climate change. At an hour-long meeting last week, his climate and energy adviser Carol Browner and White House legislative affairs director Phil Schiliro discussed the prospects of a climate change bill with Senate leader Harry Reid and other senior Capitol Hill Democrats. Three senators – Democrat John Kerry, independent Joe Lieberman and Republican Lindsey Graham – have also been holding talks to draw up legislation. Their planned bill looks set to be released next month.
…Significantly, this latter group is backed by the distinguished UN climate chief Yvo de Boer. “I think we’ll continue on the two-track approach. For the developing countries, the presence of the Kyoto protocol is very important,” he said. He is also supported by more than 200 of the world’s largest environment and development groups, including Friends of the Earth International, Christian Aid, Third World Network, Jubilee South and the World Development Movement, which have called for a total rejection of the Copenhagen accord and urged countries to resume twin-track talks.”…
etc…
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If this is democracy, God help us all!
It can now confirmed that the Met Office has determined the attention span of the average Brit to be precisely five years.
The science is settled.
In the interest of full disclosure, I know a scientist.
Mann comes out of hiding.
Somebody call the troops.
Gotta be a story there somewhere.
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-global-warming-interview-whole,0,5661907.story
…but the average air temperature difference between the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ when vineyards thrived in southern England and the ‘Little Ice Age’ when the River Thames regularly froze over was only 1-2°C.
1-2C ? is this Mann made math?
Doesn’t 5C warmer covert to 9F warmer? If not, I think England would already be that tropical paradise.
But, but, but…..
There wasn’t a ‘Medieval Warm Period’!
/sarc
DaveE.
With that track record, why would they be believed this time?
Just wondering…
Needed this humor on a cold, wet (yeah, yeah – global warming) Ohio spring morning.
Thanks!
Having lived in England all my life it wasn’t that difficult to choose the 3rd option in the poll. Seems I was right!
I voted for Ice Age but only for dramatic purposes.
The beauty of the internet is what these jokers say lasts forever. You can delete an article from off your server, but you cannot stories that talks about your article from other websites.
Remarkable that they can include a reference to the MWP in the BBC article. Doesn’t it occur to them that the Medieval Warm Period had a warmer
Greenland than exists now, and that the Greenland icecap didn’t melt and shut down the Gulf conveyor? I think it’s called cognitive dissonance.
Cooling is the new warming.