Devastating non-trends in US Climate

From Warren Meyer, who was discussing the recent announcement from the White House Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force.

If one wonders why the climate alarmist movement is suffering from a credibility problem, one only needs to read some of the claims:

Climate change is already having “pervasive, wide-ranging” effects on “nearly every aspect of our society,” a task force representing more than 20 federal agencies reported Tuesday.

Here are some of the devastating non-trends in US Climate:

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Sou
March 20, 2010 6:13 am

Willis, lol – you choose not to believe the experts at our Bureau of Meteorology so I won’t point you there. And you obviously don’t care for the accounts of people who have had to live through the recent drought, fires, floods and record temperatures, except for the rabid anti-environmentalists who spout a lot of unsubstantiated rubbish.
But for others who might have a more sceptical bent than many people on these boards, have a geek at this chart of south eastern australia temperature trends.
Warning – it helps if you can read charts, look at the mean temp since about 1950 where it’s risen more than 1.5C already. Or the max temp which has gone up nearly 2C over the same period. It’s the extremes that get you. Or look at the rainfall to 2009, with nine years of below average rain, the longest consecutive period since 1900. Or if you want to look at the history of the main reservoirs, check out the Melbourne Water website or the Goulburn Murray website – and compare the water levels this decade to last year with the early 1990s.
Or have a gander at this Statement of the Climate.
Sure, maybe I’ve become suddenly sensitive to a bit of heat, but then everyone I know has suffered the same malady. And my own thermometers might have gone awry, but if they did, so did the thermometers of everyone else who has one. And my eyes might have deceived me when I saw near empty reservoirs and rivers, but then so did everyone elses. And the fires I’ve experienced might have been my imagination and the fact that there have been more fierce ones this decade than in my entire 60 years here could be a faulty memory – but then everyone else I know must also have false memories.

Bruce Cobb
March 20, 2010 6:17 am

Sou (22:41:16) :
Obviously some people have an open mind and some people have already made up their mind. I know if anyone is reading this and wants to investigate further, they will do so. Others will continue to make comments that reinforce their personal view of the world, regardless of any evidence.
Yes, we can certainly agree on that. Unfortunately, the people who have made up their minds, who allow their own personal views of the world and for whom neither facts nor actual science will convince them that they are wrong perfectly describes you and your ilk. Obviously, you feel an emotional need to blame the bush fires, and the resulting deaths on something other than the actual facts. It is easier to just blame the boogeyman of manmade climate change instead of facing reality: that you happen to live in a part of the world with a harsher climate than others, and that often times the effects of that harsher climate can be made even more severe by the wrongheaded governmental policies.
But, go ahead, continue to blame C02, as you undoubtedly will.

A C Osborn
March 20, 2010 7:08 am

Sou (06:13:16) :
Or look at the rainfall to 2009, with nine years of below average rain, the longest consecutive period since 1900 – so what happened in 1900, CO2.
Or if you want to look at the history of the main reservoirs, check out the Melbourne Water website or the Goulburn Murray website – and compare the water levels this decade to last year with the early 1990s. Of course it wouldn’t have anything to do with Water mismanagement or the increases in Population.
No blame CO2.

Sou
March 20, 2010 7:26 am

Bruce, I blame last year’s fires on the catastrophic weather conditions. Record high temperatures reaching an unheard of 47C in Melbourne, and higher in other parts of the state. The temp where I live reached 45.6C, about 3.2C more than the previous high. We’d had more than a week of these record temperatures without the wind. Add wind and a spark to the mix and whoosh! The tinder dry vegetation and the hot, strong winds, with a predicted shift from northerlies to southerlies, which would shift the fire front and make it burn on the long front. The conditions were unprecedented in the region and the warnings were long loud and clear. The fire danger rating was off the charts. Any aware person would have known that a spark from any source would set off a conflagration that day. That was the reality and I assure you I was most definitely prepared.
However it is very likely that the record high temperatures, in line with the increasing mean, min and max temps each successive decade, plus the nine years of below average rainfall have been the result of a climate shift in our region, which is highly likely to be the result of the rising CO2, and is well in line with predictions made for our region some decades ago. It’s commonly called the greenhouse effect. You might like to look it up. It’s not that hard to grasp the basics, and all the evidence points to it having a real effect as most people know (unless they live in the USA perhaps where some polls suggest only about half the people know this?)
Time will tell if there is indeed a permanent shift to drier and hotter conditions in south eastern Australia. We’ve had a spell this summer, even though the temps are still above average we haven’t had too many days above 38C to 40C, thankfully. And we’ve had a lot of rain, even though much of it has fallen as torrents rather than more steady, soaking rain. It would be nice if we get at least a couple more years of decent rain so that the reservoirs and rivers can start to fill up again.
Nothing is black and white and the future is unknown. Much as it would be comforting to have certainty, we don’t. But I’m preparing for the change in any case, which seems the wise course to take, as it is most likely going to be the reality for the future. If our local climate changes back again, no harm no foul and I’ll still be better off.
I agree with you that wrongheaded government policies can make a harsh climate even more severe. We aren’t yet used to harsh climates like we have now in our temperate zone (or what used to be a temperate zone). (Other parts of the country are used to the sort of weather we’ve started to get.) Let’s hope that governments can put some decent policies in place so the future is less bleak.

mpw280
March 20, 2010 7:36 am

Cyclical spikes in both dry and wet weather roughly approximating the el nino/la nina cycle, I can’t imagine that. The nino/nina cycle has been known for near a century yet it is news to lots of climate people out there, willful ignorance is great. Even poor dirt farmers in south east asia with no tv or internet know that about every 4-5 years there will be an el nino event which will cause problems with their crops, but it is a huge agw mystery why there are dry spells in the US southwest and then wet spells. Maybe the agw people need to get their weather information from people who make a living forecasting for traders and therefore need to be right rather than people who forecast weather and climate for grant money and need to suck up to politicians with a cause rather than show what is really out there. mpw

Editor
March 20, 2010 9:54 am

Willis Eschenbach (01:18:52) :
Here’s my comment:
Gentlemen:
I’ve read your Progress Report several times now and have found it neither accurate nor informative. It is a vacuous piece of propaganda intended to achieve partisan political goals at the expense of the tax-paying public. “… it is imperative to take action now to adapt to a changing climate…” Gentlemen, the climate is always changing and the changes we are witnessing are not new, unprecedented or a crisis. What is unprecedented is the sheer effrontery of public servants attempting to convince a free people to accept authoritarian government.
This document and the earlier report it references (Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States) is false and misleading and directly aimed at influencing members of Congress. It is my hope that Congress and the American people realize the extent of this deception and the corruption of science and take firm, appropriate action.

rbateman
March 20, 2010 10:32 am

Sou (07:26:08) :
However it is very likely that the record high temperatures, in line with the increasing mean, min and max temps each successive decade

Put forth your station data.
What stations are you basing your claim of AGW on?

CRS, Dr.P.H.
March 20, 2010 11:04 am

As if the wildfires aren’t bad enough, the Aussies have other problems directly related to global warming! Here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3353693/Giant-spider-eating-a-bird-caught-on-camera.html

Editor
March 20, 2010 11:53 am

Sou (07:26:08) : edit

Bruce, I blame last year’s fires on the catastrophic weather conditions. Record high temperatures reaching an unheard of 47C in Melbourne, and higher in other parts of the state. The temp where I live reached 45.6C, about 3.2C more than the previous high. We’d had more than a week of these record temperatures without the wind. Add wind and a spark to the mix and whoosh! The tinder dry vegetation and the hot, strong winds, with a predicted shift from northerlies to southerlies, which would shift the fire front and make it burn on the long front. The conditions were unprecedented in the region and the warnings were long loud and clear. The fire danger rating was off the charts. Any aware person would have known that a spark from any source would set off a conflagration that day. That was the reality and I assure you I was most definitely prepared.
However it is very likely that the record high temperatures, in line with the increasing mean, min and max temps each successive decade, plus the nine years of below average rainfall have been the result of a climate shift in our region, which is highly likely to be the result of the rising CO2, and is well in line with predictions made for our region some decades ago. It’s commonly called the greenhouse effect. You might like to look it up. It’s not that hard to grasp the basics, and all the evidence points to it having a real effect as most people know (unless they live in the USA perhaps where some polls suggest only about half the people know this?)

Sou, you seem to think I disagree with you about the conditions leading to the fire. Yes, the temperatures were high, and the state was dry, and when that happens, you get catastrophic fires. We agree on that 100%.
But when you take the huge jump from that to it being “very likely” that this is from rising CO2, you’ve gone from facts to fantasy.
To establish cause and effect, you need to have this thing we call “evidence”, I’m sure even Australians have heard of it. You have not provided any … nor has anyone. Yes, we have plenty of climate models written by people who support the CO2 hypothesis, and surprise of surprises, the climate model results support the CO2 hypothesis, but where is the evidence?
Yes, CO2 is rising, and so is the price of stamps. Does that mean CO2 is responsible for rising stamp prices?
And yes, temperatures have risen in Australia over the last century. This should not be a surprise to anyone, as temperatures have been slowly rising since the Little Ice Age. See Akasufo here, or the Armagh and CET records here.
But if you think the rising temperatures are due to CO2, you’ll have to explain why “global warming” started in 1650 or so.
I await your explanation of the post-1650 warming, and how it relates to CO2 …

Bruce Cobb
March 20, 2010 12:36 pm

Sou (07:26:08) :
it is very likely that the record high temperatures, in line with the increasing mean, min and max temps each successive decade, plus the nine years of below average rainfall have been the result of a climate shift in our region, which is highly likely to be the result of the rising CO2, and is well in line with predictions made for our region some decades ago. It’s commonly called the greenhouse effect. You might like to look it up. It’s not that hard to grasp the basics, and all the evidence points to it having a real effect as most people know (unless they live in the USA perhaps where some polls suggest only about half the people know this?)
Sorry, bub, but the greenhouse effect has been vastly overrated, which you would know if you bothered to read beyond the narrow sphere of the CAGW/CC bilge you obviously imbibe. The evidence certainly might “suggest” C02 as the culprit, to either the hopelessly naive, the willfully ignorant, or the disingenuous.
Some of us prefer to actually delve into things a bit deeper, though, you know, for something closer to the truth, rather than the pablum the truth-challenged folks of the IPCC, and your heroes, Hansen, Mann, and Gore dish out. But, different strokes, I guess.

Rich Grant
March 20, 2010 2:02 pm

The corn yields are not indicating anything about climate- the increase you see is the genetic yield improvement of varieties and the use of fertilizer- what is generally described as technology factors. Deviations from the trend line is a result of weather/climate variability. As far as corn liking warm weather- it does provided it does not go above 90F and it has sufficient precip.

Sou
March 20, 2010 4:19 pm

Hmmm, it looks as if a few people posting here are not very familiar with the known and established properties of CO2 and other greenhouse gases and would like me to explain it to them. They are asking me to give a basic science lesson on why rising concentrations of CO2 lead to an increase in global temperature, and why the reverse happens. This is not new science. I’d erroneously thought that, given the amount of space this site devotes to climate change, most people here would know about the properties of CO2 and other greenhouse gases and how they keep the earth warm and supporting life as we know it.
There is ample information elsewhere on the internet, from popular articles for the non-scientist to detailed scientific books and publications and excellent series of videos.
Do a search on greenhouse effect, or CO2 and climate or similar. A knowledge of high school physics will help, but isn’t essential if you’re prepared to put your mind to it. A lot of general science textbooks for schools will have a description. Be aware that there are a lot of popular sites on the internet that don’t explain things properly. Some are even set up to deliberately misinform. You will learn which sites are reliable if you read sufficient of the literature or seek out sites of proper scientific organisations rather than amateur blogs or political and policy websites.

March 20, 2010 5:04 pm

Sou (16:19:35) :

Hmmm, it looks as if a few people posting here are not very familiar with the known and established properties of CO2 and other greenhouse gases and would like me to explain it to them. They are asking me to give a basic science lesson on why rising concentrations of CO2 lead to an increase in global temperature, and why the reverse happens.

I read through the rest of your post, hoping to be enlightened by your explanation and basic science lesson. Sadly, no explanation was there. I’m disappointed.
I was hoping for your explanation, because I suspect I would have had a few questions for you.

Eric (skeptic)
March 20, 2010 7:02 pm

Sou first says “And most fires get put out, including those started by humans.”
Later Sou says “Precautionary off-season burning has been happening as much as if not more than ever, so the increasing frequency and ferocity of fires can’t be blamed on lack of burning off by government agencies.”
Sou seems to think government control is the answer to all problems. But the “burning off by government agencies” or lack thereof is not the answer when the humans are interfering with “most fires”. That doesn’t include the local policies not allowing clearing and other insanities.
Then Sou says “BTW I also realise that lots of people don’t want to believe the facts, preferring to blame the ‘greenies’, or the ‘conservationists’ or the ‘government’ or anyone at all that they fear or loathe. Some of you have basically accused me of lying or being deluded.”
Red herrings. The facts don’t point to unprecedented drought. The 117 year low in river input (Murray-Darling Basin) is from cotton irrigation and other wasteful forms of agriculture. Otherwise you have some drought, but not unprecedented (something like sixth or seventh worst).

Eric (skeptic)
March 20, 2010 7:11 pm

Sou says “Hmmm, it looks as if a few people posting here are not very familiar with the known and established properties of CO2 and other greenhouse gases and would like me to explain it to them.”
True. CO2 causes warming by reflecting back IR that leaves the earth’s surface. Unlike some have implied above, N2 and O2 do not have this effect. The real scientific debate is the sensitivity of climate to the extra warming from extra CO2. The alarmists believe that the effects of water vapor increases will double or triple the warming from CO2. Other legitimate science points to a reduction in the warming from CO2 from weather changes that temper the warming.

Editor
March 20, 2010 8:30 pm

Sou (16:19:35) : edit

Hmmm, it looks as if a few people posting here are not very familiar with the known and established properties of CO2 and other greenhouse gases and would like me to explain it to them. They are asking me to give a basic science lesson on why rising concentrations of CO2 lead to an increase in global temperature, and why the reverse happens. This is not new science. I’d erroneously thought that, given the amount of space this site devotes to climate change, most people here would know about the properties of CO2 and other greenhouse gases and how they keep the earth warm and supporting life as we know it.
There is ample information elsewhere on the internet, from popular articles for the non-scientist to detailed scientific books and publications and excellent series of videos.
Do a search on greenhouse effect, or CO2 and climate or similar. A knowledge of high school physics will help, but isn’t essential if you’re prepared to put your mind to it. A lot of general science textbooks for schools will have a description. Be aware that there are a lot of popular sites on the internet that don’t explain things properly. Some are even set up to deliberately misinform. You will learn which sites are reliable if you read sufficient of the literature or seek out sites of proper scientific organisations rather than amateur blogs or political and policy websites.

Oh, great, the “it’s just basic science” argument again. Don’t you think we’ve discussed this question?
Sou, you seem like an intelligent guy. Please see my post here regarding why basic science is usually not relevant to complex systems.
Next, we know that CO2 is a greenhouse gas … but that doesn’t mean it will warm the earth. If I go from a cool shaded house into the open sun, the forcing on my body increases by 500W/m2 or so. But my body doesn’t warm up correspondingly. Why not? Because my body has a thermostat. I think that the globe does as well, as I discuss here.
Let me know your comments on those before we move forwards … if you don’t come back to tell me where I’m wrong, I’ll assume that you agree with my hypotheses.

Sou
March 20, 2010 10:46 pm

@Willis. You don’t need me to tell you where you are wrong. Even your statement ‘we know that CO2 is a greenhouse gas…but that doesn’t mean it will warm the earth’ – is a contradiction and shows you don’t understand what is meant by a greenhouse gas. Also, you said previously that you don’t believe official records of national and global temperatures. So it’s quite pointless to try to engage in any discussion.
Same with Eric Skeptic who for some reason thinks the longest, hottest drought ever recorded in south eastern Australia was in fact only the sixth or seventh worst drought for south eastern Australia. He thinks that the longest recorded period of below average rainfall (nine years) during the hottest period ever recorded, is not as bad a drought as a shorter period, when there was six years of below average rainfall in a much cooler period, or three years of below average rainfall in a cooler period or two years of below average rainfall in a cooler period etc etc. Weird.
I’ll leave to you to it. Nature doesn’t care at all what you think (and neither do I). It might be interesting to to those who study human motivation and psyche, but I’m a more practical type.

Editor
March 21, 2010 1:54 am

Sou (22:46:15)

@Willis. You don’t need me to tell you where you are wrong. Even your statement ‘we know that CO2 is a greenhouse gas…but that doesn’t mean it will warm the earth’ – is a contradiction and shows you don’t understand what is meant by a greenhouse gas. Also, you said previously that you don’t believe official records of national and global temperatures. So it’s quite pointless to try to engage in any discussion.

In other words, you haven’t taken the time to read what I wrote … I’m shocked, I tell you, shocked. I can sympathize, your mind is made up, you don’t want to disturb it with facts …
If you believe the “official records” (whatever you think that means), well, I have a bridge you might be interested in buying. You did read about Climategate, where it was revealed that the “official” records had been lost, and all that was left was the “official adjusted data”? Do you believe those official records as well?
The “official record” of Darwin has been adjusted until it is unrecognizable. A totally imaginary trend has been added, a trend of an amazing 6°C per century … but hey, Sou, you’re welcome to believe it, after all, it’s the “official record” …

He thinks that the longest recorded period of below average rainfall (nine years) during the hottest period ever recorded, is not as bad a drought as a shorter period, when there was six years of below average rainfall in a much cooler period, or three years of below average rainfall in a cooler period or two years of below average rainfall in a cooler period etc etc.

You would be more believable if you provided citations for your claims. I showed the Australian BOM record of the Yan Yean rainfall above. It shows only five consecutive years of below average rain, compared to ten years below average rain around 1900 … so as you might imagine, people might withhold judgement on your unsubstantiated claims until you let us in on your secret sources. Until then, the Yan Yean record says your claims are wrong, and that’s the record that’s generally used for Victoria.
Do I think that you have had one of the hottest and dryest periods in a long time? Yes. But that doesn’t mean that CO2 is to blame.
Here’s a more nuanced look at the Yan Yean rainfall data, this time monthly rainfall:

This shows the monthly rainfall anomaly, which is how much the monthly rainfall is above or below the long term monthly average. What is interesting is the dark blue line. This shows the cumulative anomaly. When it is dropping, it means that overall long-term rainfall is below average. When it is level, rainfall is average, and when it is rising, rainfall is above average.
So we can see four periods in the record. From 1850 to 1900, rainfall was generally below the long term average. From 1900 to 1950, it was about average. From 1950 to 2000, it was above average. And from 2000 to 2010, it has once again been below average.
Note that Victoria has been living through a historically wet period for fifty of the last sixty years, with only two short periods when the rainfall was below average. So to everyone living, the last decade seems like a period that is way drier than anything in living memory. And it is.
But that is because living memory is so short. In terms of the historical record, this is not the case. Yes, it has been dry, but it was below average for fifty years from 1850 to 1900 …
So you may be in for another long dry spell, like 1850-1900. But that does not mean that there is a human hand in the current dry spell. You’ve seen them before, long before CO2 started rising.
Again I suggest that you read the papers I cited above, here and here. Hey, they won’t poison your mind, and if they are wrong, come back and quote my wrong statements and tell us why they are wrong … you know, scientific discussion. You should give it a try, we both might learn something.

Sou
March 21, 2010 4:20 am

I understand it’s not unprecedented for some people to pick a single station and extrapolate it to a region or even the world, although it’s not normally done.
Sorry to repeat myself, but for those who have come late or missed the earlier references, I was referring to south eastern Australia as shown in the link below. Many parts of Australia have extremes of weather. For Australia overall the temperatures are rising. For south eastern Australia there was a drought of unprecedented duration during an unprecedented period of high temperatures – as far as the records trace back in the past 100+ years. Click on the various temperature and rainfall anomalies:
South eastern australia temperature trends with thirteen consecutive years of above average mean temperature, including two years of the highest mean annual temp on record, and the hottest decade on record.
Nine years below average rainfall, following one year of just above average, following three years of below average. This was a drought during a decade having the highest temperatures on record.
Here is what happened to Melbourne’s water supply:
Melbourne water storage as it dropped from 1997 to 2009. Melburnians managed to restrict their water usage or the storage would have dropped even lower. If the the length of the drought could have been anticipated, the severe water restrictions would have been introduced even earlier.
And here again is the Statement of the Climate report, which was released recently.
As for the rest, I appreciate the invitation, but no thank you.

Bruce Cobb
March 21, 2010 7:14 am

Sou (04:20:42) :
As for the rest, I appreciate the invitation, but no thank you.
Translation: Don’t confuse me with the facts. My mind is made up!

Jan Pompe
March 21, 2010 7:19 am

“Here is what happened to Melbourne’s water supply:”
Like Sydney the population outgrew the dam capacity but Melbourne unlike Sydney which has no more damable rivers the greenies have prevent extending the capacity by building new dams.

Editor
March 21, 2010 12:09 pm

Sou, I was sorry (but unsurprised) when you refused my invitation to read about and discuss the issues, saying:

As for the rest, I appreciate the invitation, but no thank you.

Unfortunately, I find this closed mindset all too common among AGW supporters, viz …

… and it is folks on your side of the issue that call us “deniers”. Ironic, huh?
For those who, unlike you, are actually interested in learning something about Melbourne and the climate history of Victoria, there’s an excellent and well-cited three-part series that starts here.
In one of the sources cited in that three-part report, I find this curious assertion:

Over the last century, the approach to managing drought was to build new reservoirs to meet increasing demand for water. Today, the Government and Melbourne Water recognise this approach is no longer sustainable.

(Note that the drought shown graphically on that page is not the current drought, but a drought a quarter century ago … sneaky water managers, no cookies.)
When I follow up to find out why dams are “no longer sustainable”, the answer is it takes too long to build them. Think I’m joking? Here’s the quote …

Time is also a factor. It took well over a decade for the Thomson Dam to be designed, approved and built. This means a new dam anywhere in the State would come far too late to help with the sudden drops in inflows, like the one we saw in 2006.

Oh, and also it’s not worth building dams because there’s less rain …

Our reservoir storages need a steady rain over days and weeks, to wet the ground and then generate runoff.
Unfortunately, we cannot rely on this kind of rainfall like we used to. Any new dam we build in the Melbourne catchment will face the same problem.

Well, ya poor babies. Dams take so long to build, and there’s less rain, so we can’t build new dams, so Melbourne is running out of water, boohoo. Man, it’s a good thing those folks weren’t the pioneers in Australia, Sou, or you wouldn’t have any roads or railroads or dams at all …
At least we can see that you come by your reluctance honestly.

Editor
March 21, 2010 12:16 pm

Sou, you say:

And here again is the Statement of the Climate report, which was released recently.

Riiight … that’s the report that simply makes a host of assertions, and doesn’t contain one single solitary citation. That’s a real impressive piece of work, Sou, right up there with your uncited assertions. I was particularly impressed when they said:

CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology use scientific modelling based on the laws of physics and thoroughly tested against recorded observations.

Hey, that convinces me, say no more, say no more …

kwik
March 21, 2010 2:35 pm