From Warren Meyer, who was discussing the recent announcement from the White House Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force.
If one wonders why the climate alarmist movement is suffering from a credibility problem, one only needs to read some of the claims:
Climate change is already having “pervasive, wide-ranging” effects on “nearly every aspect of our society,” a task force representing more than 20 federal agencies reported Tuesday.
Here are some of the devastating non-trends in US Climate:
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Who believes we can trust Warren Meyer to tell the unvarnished truth and always exercise due scientific diligence?
Not me.
Here is a post where his ‘Coyote’ blog reveals that ‘Nearly all the reported warming in the USHCN data base, which is used for nearly all global warming studies and models, is from human-added fudge factors, guesstimates, and corrections.’
http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2007/07/an-interesting-.html
One small problem. The adjustments are in degrees Farenheit, the increase is in Celsius. Shall I repeat that? Ok. Warren Meyer has a web page up where he compares measurements in two incompatible units as if they were the same. The error has been pointed out in comments, yet the page remains up, misleading readers. Imagine for a moment the fuss if (say) Professor Phil Jones made such a schoolboy howler, and failed to retract it ….
Meyer is demonstrably not a reliable source. Warren remains on Anthony’s ‘blogroll’. Need we say more?
Sou (17:43:06),
You’re new here. The AU fire has been thoroughly discussed in real time, in several articles. Here’s one of them: click
Phil Clarke (17:59:50),
By your very own example, we can’t trust NASA: click
Sou (17:43:06),
You’re new here. The AU fire has been thoroughly discussed in real time, in several articles. Here’s one of them: click
——
REPLY: Sou, we are terribly sorry for your personal losses, and the losses of all our Aussie friends. I’m familiar with these fires, they were devastating to the koala population and local ecosystems. Bad stuff, eucalyptus burns like gasoline when dry.
However, to blame any world drought conditions on global warming in general is misleading, as proof of absolute temperature increases is lacking.
Contributors to this blog spend many hours analyzing the data, presenting alternative hypothesis and discussing results, and we do not believe that this science is settled. Many of us are scientists who are at least as qualified as the climatologists who control the peer review process in the journals.
That being said, we praise our friends down under for their resilience and hope such fires never occur again, for whatever reasons.
@Warrick
Heat units and corn for the interested. Yes corn likes it warm
http://www.farmwest.com/index.cfm?method=library.showPage&librarypageid=131
It’s and American report — you can get the full report where it says [here] at the bottom of the extract.
http://www.environmentamerica.org/news-releases/global-warming-solutions/global-warming-solutions/new-report-global-warming-will-cost-american-corn-growers-billions
It’s simpler just to provide the facts.
But I will say that Tim should get his facts straight or explain why his report flies in the face of current knowledge.
I have grown lots of corn (American / Canadian definition) — Corn Like it Hot!
Sou (17:43:06) :
I don’t know what country you live in but i live in Oz and this year it has been rather a mild summer for us on the east coast.
An item from
http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=globalwarming&thread=1128&page=4#43726
” … a really good view of what this passing winter meant to the continental US go to the following link.
http://www.gasalberta.com/pricing-supply.htm
Scroll down to US Storage. They blew through record natural gas storage. Most analysts believed it would take two very cold winters to do that with the collapsed industrial demand and the prolific nature of the new shale gas discoveries when they first go into production.
It’s a differently structured site. You might want to just go to the following and go to ‘Pricing’, then ‘Gas Pricing’, and then ‘Supply and Demand’ in the menu on top and click around and look at stuff.
http://www.gasalberta.com/ ”
There does exist a measurement called “degree days”
which inversely relates temperature to gas usage …
Probably at least as good as tree rings.
Sou (17:43:06) :
You need to get two things: a grip and a clue. If you supported or approved of the regulations preventing property owners from cutting back the brush on their properties, then I have zero sympathy. The drought is not new, the temperatures are not unprecedented and my friends in Victoria refer to the place as OZ. Do as many others here have done, investigate the records for yourself and don’t rely on the self-serving, pre-chewed press-release stuff from CSIRO. You’ve been lied to and manipulated. Direct your outrage to where it belongs.
@ur momisugly Smokey (18:07:39)
I know that some people believe everything they read but just as with much in the media, that story is not at all as some would have you believe. In the heat of the moment no journalist bothered to check the facts, as told here:
http://uydec.org.au/dp/node/298
But Smokey’s linking to the above non-story is a rather ordinary example of an attempt to move discussion away from the issue, which was the question about who has been adversely affected by climate change. In this case it just threw the spotlight on more people who’ve been affected adversely by our changing climate. And it’s not just more frequent and larger and fiercer fires.
The thing is, a few people who live in cold climates think global warming would be great. Thankfully, most sensible people know that by taking no action and thereby warming their own cool climate, they are also making some hot places unbearably hot, which will have unintended consequences.
BTW, Smokey, good to see you’re still a fan 😀
Sou (19:06:31),
I have plenty of sympathy for the poor guy in the article that was linked. Natural disasters like that are extremely hard on everyone concerned.
That link was commented on by quite a few Aussies who were there, or had friends and relatives affected. You might read their comments under the article. Similar stories and comments about the fire were posted on WUWT around the same time.
But as far as climate change goes, the climate always changes. CO2 has very little to do with it, if anything. Only people like Michael Mann want us to believe the climate was unchanging throughout the past thousand years, even during the MWP and LIA, as his Hokey Stick chart claims.
Much damage and loss of life in that fire would have been averted with sensible regulations, such as allowing homeowners to clear the trees and brush from around their dwellings.
There have always been terrible fires. We had one in my area, in Berkeley, California in 1991. Dozens of people were killed, hundreds injured, and over three thousand homes were burned to the ground. As in Australia, climate change had little or nothing to do with the Berkeley fire. The major cause was bad planning.
@Sou:
Here are other WUWT threads on Australian fires, droughts, etc., most recent first. The ones without asterisks are low-relevance.
* http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/08/ipcc-gate-du-jour-aussie-droughtgate/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/18/summer-snow-in-australia/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/12/australias-restrictiv-rudd-government-about-to-claim-its-first-carbon-bureaucracy-victim/
* http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/08/high-fire-danger-in-south-australia-as-temperatures-soar/
* http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/23/the-australian-dust-storm-from-space/
* http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/01/reporter-down-under-dont-blame-climate-change-for-hottest-august-on-record/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/12/caption-this-photo/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/29/new-australian-continent-wide-low-record-set-for-april/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/13/a-brick-through-australias-agw-window/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/03/big-chill-a-symptom-of-climate-chaos/
“Smokey (18:07:39) :
Sou (17:43:06),
You’re new here. The AU fire has been thoroughly discussed in real time, in several articles. Here’s one of them: click”
yup, environmental policies lead to an increase in fuel load. Worse bushfires are then (laughably) blamed on climate change when in fact they are largely the direct result of ‘green’ politics.
Sou
I cannot even describe the conditions but if you can imagine several years of below average rainfall (AKA drought) making the vegetation tinder dry, a fortnight where it reached temperatures (up to 117F) never before reached in the region (AKA a most serious and long-lasting heat wave after a long and very hot summer during a decade-long drought), and after that fortnight fierce hot dry winds roaring across the state.
End
Knowing all that why were residents advised to stay or go?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/victoria-bushfires-inquiry-recommends-overhaul-of-stay-or-go-policy/story-e6frg6n6-1225762875329
http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/dse/nrenfoe.nsf/childdocs/-D79E4FB0C437E1B6CA256DA60008B9EF?open
Speaking of droughts:
These data sets are from Phil Jones 91 and 99 CRU (raw and slightly modified)
Sacramento:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/SacCRU.GIF
flat as a pancake
Red Bluff:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/RedBluffAveCRU.GIF
Showing the 1870’s 10-11 year drought and one very hot 1875
(no…that’s not an errant report…check out more below)
Redding:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/ReddingCRU99.GIF
Still showing the 1875 hot year even though Phil edited it
Livermore:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/LiverMCRU99.GIF
Cooking as well in the 1870’s.
Santa Cruz:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/SantaCruzCRU.GIF
What were you expecting? Santa Cruz is on the ocean. It’s just warm in the early part before starting another long cycle.
The only station that was involved directly in the drought but doesn’t show it is Sacramento…Delta Breezes. I’m guessing that’s what got cut off in the drought and make those awful hot years, the likes of which we haven’t seen since.
Just wanted to pre-empt those pesky warmist who jump up & down every time there’s a dry year. When the brown stuff hits the fan next time, don’t claim it never happened before, because it surely did.
And, according to AMS, Spring was very late and Winter very early for everything East of the Rockies in 1875. A devastating nationwide non-trend if there ever was one we got the records on.
The drought of the 1870’s info. comes from the book:
Treatise on Hydraulic Mining by Augustus J. Bowie.
The library system can’t get it for me because the Univ. system has it impounded for academic reasons given. This is what our librarian in town told me.
Fine by me, I read the book in the 1970’s, and you don’t forget data like that.
The rest of you might want to pull some weight and get it.
Key vintage volume / highly damaging to AGW theory.
Precipitation data is not available anywhere else that I know of back that far.
NickB. (12:39:30)
You missed the fine print. The graph is for yield (production per acre), not total production. If anything, increased demand should drive yield down, not up, because land less suitable for corn will be pressed into production.
Never mind the facts – it is the theory and computer models you need to take notice of.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/abs/ngeo779.html
“Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms……”
Jim Clarke (06:21:26) :
Loss of about 200 lives in bushfires last year…
err, no
I will provide a local Australian perspective:
There have been bigger and more devastating bushfires in Victorian history. 1939 was bigger.
The devastation of the Black Saturday bushfires last year in Victoria, Australia, was caused by higher population densities in bushfire prone area, and a failure to control burn forest undergrowth.
This failure to control burn scrub and undergrowth was due to the deep green policies of green state and local politicians. You voted for this, you got it.
Multi-year water restrictions and locals having no water supply left for domestic use. Followed by unparalleled torrential rain and hail. Record floods covering huge areas of land.
Floods and droughts are part of the Australian landscape. Always has been, always will be. What we have seen over the last 10 years in not unprecedented. BoM data will confirm this.
Water restrictions are again due to anti development green politicians who refuse to build dams to supply water to a growing population.
Sorry guys, I didn’t mean to distract you from the topic of the thread. I realise many of you don’t understand what’s happening because you’re not living it, and because blogs like this tend to attract people who may not be very aware of the actual situation and unintentionally post or link to misleading reports. (Some people even seem to favour razing all the national parks, not allowing any trees except exotic deciduous varieties and maybe even just paving the whole state with concrete and asphalt.)
Anyway, just for the record:
Precautionary off-season burning has been happening as much as if not more than ever, so the increasing frequency and ferocity of fires can’t be blamed on lack of burning off by government agencies. Some people favour living on bush blocks and deliberately choose to cultivate such environments, accepting they are more risky when it comes to fire. Unfortunately, with warming, the safe windows for burning off are getting narrower so in future we can’t expect to be able to burn off the same areas. Also, after a ‘good year’, there will be more vegetation and more fuel for fires in drier hotter years. That’s just the result of the shift to a hotter and drier climate in this part of the world.
The go or stay policy has always applied in Victoria. We’re a democracy and reasonable laid back, and have managed to avoid implementing draconian martial law so far. What the policy means is if you decide to go, then go early. Only stay if you are physically fit, prepared to fight, have ample equipment, shelter and protection (ie a fully implemented bushfire plan.) Too many people waited till it was too late – or decided to stay even when there was no easy route out. Fallen trees blocked narrow roads so many people got trapped and couldn’t escape. Some people had nowhere to escape to – the fire turned on its side and a super-wide fire front tore across the state.
The go or stay policy works for people who live in rural areas and who are more attuned to the weather and more prepared for fires. Those living in peri-urban areas, where there was the greatest loss of life, often spend most of their lives in the city and are less aware of bushfire behaviour, and didn’t take sufficient heed of the multiple dire warnings broadcast all over the radio and television in advance of Black Saturday.
Maybe for these peri-urban and suburban areas there does need to be a re-think of the approach and some sort of mandatory evacuation procedure legislated. I’m not convinced it would work. Some people will always choose to stay even when it’s most risky. Some people still have no understanding of how fire can behave.
BTW I also realise that lots of people don’t want to believe the facts, preferring to blame the ‘greenies’, or the ‘conservationists’ or the ‘government’ or anyone at all that they fear or loathe. Some of you have basically accused me of lying or being deluded. But for me and my neighbours and other Victorian’s this ‘delusion’ is our reality, because we actually live here. And it’s not just our ‘memories’ or recollections. The weather records of the past several decades show exactly what is happening.
The thing is, of course, that this is just the start. There is more to come with CO2 still rising. Some people apparently think that if the best or even the worst projections for 2100 haven’t happened by 2010 then they won’t happen at all. There are 90 more years of trends yet to come.
That’s enough from me on this topic. Obviously some people have an open mind and some people have already made up their mind. I know if anyone is reading this and wants to investigate further, they will do so. Others will continue to make comments that reinforce their personal view of the world, regardless of any evidence.
Sou (22:41:16) :
‘The weather records of the past several decades show exactly what is happening.’
I happen to live in a very mis-managed forest. Every other year we choke as the ‘let it burn’ policy allows fires to run out of control, and no salvage allowed due to greenie lawsuits, so it burns again and again.
Where exactly is YOUR raw data layout?
I have given mine at:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/WhatGlobalWarming.htm
It ain’t happening here.
The author of the original Reuters AlertNet article is Frances Beinecke, with no affiliation or other identification is given.
Google turns up the fact that Ms Beinecke is no Reuters reporter and far from a disinterested party. Actually she is president of the NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council), the notorious activist group. She has evidently worked for NRDC her entire working life.
http://www.nrdc.org/about/frances_beinecke.asp
According to Activist Cash website, while at NRDC Francis was also responsible for the infamous, and later completed discredited, Alar (apple) scare.
http://activistcash.com/biography.cfm/b/1391-frances-beinecke
I believe the CIA term for the placement of this type of article with no identifying information for the author is called a “false flag” operation.
Both the article and the “White House Report” are essentially 100% propaganda, not science.
Sou (22:41:16) :
Well, since I hadn’t made up my mind, I thought I’d look at the data. The Victoria fires were roughly bounded by the area Latitude Range -37.5 to -35, Longitude Range -145 to -142.5.
The temperature trend 1995-2009 in that area, per the MSU dataset, is -0.1°C per year.
So I know you live there and all, but you really should check the data before claiming that there is a “shift to a hotter … climate in this part of the world.” Because the “weather records of the past several decades” don’t bear you out.
Even looking at the trend of the entire satellite record, we see a warming of just under half a degree in thirty years … be still my beating heart. The human body can’t even detect that small of a warming. You’ll have to pick something else to blame the fires on, because whatever the reason is, it’s not a half a degree of average warming in a third of a century …
Regarding the drought, yes, 2009 was a dry year, and so were the previous three years. But overall? Here’s the closest station with a long-term rainfall record:
So the recent drought in the area is not anomalous. It was drier in the forties, heck, 2009 wasn’t even among the top ten driest years … and the overall trend of the entire dataset is wetter, not dryer, and is basically flat.
Conclusion? You are not in any kind of a shift to a “drier climate” as you claim. You are in one of the many dry periods in Australia, the dryest continent on the planet.
PS – Don’t trust the Australian BOM temperature database, it is chock full of UHI and curious adjustments.
We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming …
Robert E. Phelan (09:48:33)
I submitted my comment to the fools that wrote the report, you should too. The site for comments is here.
Yeah, I wasn’t as polite as I should be. I respect both the President and the office he holds as Robert suggests … but respect the bureaucrats that are staffing the Climate Change Adaptation Task Force just because it says “White House” in the title?? Respecting the President and his office is one thing, I’m proud to do that, but respecting his house is another thing entirely. Sorry, I wouldn’t be Willis the Merciless™ if I did that, but as always, YMMV …
w.
Here’s my comment:
Willis Eschenbach (01:18:52) :
You’re right, of course. I’m still working on my comment…. as should everyone else here. The interim report is vacuous, the 2009 report is simply a falsehood. It was written to mislead Congress.
“Climate change is already having “pervasive, wide-ranging” effects on “nearly every aspect of our society,”
This statement is obviously nonsense. But if you change “climate change” to “the climate change delusion”, then it makes perfect sense.
It’s one thing to forecast all kinds of doom some time in the future. People have been doing this for centuries. The fact that I’m sitting at my keyboard and typing this post strongly suggests that the doom-mongers are always wrong.
But it’s another thing to claim that the mild 20th century warming is already having terrible effects, and maybe already killing millions. That’s a lie, pure and simple. And these graphs show that it’s a lie.
If the warming really has had a bad effect then there should be lots of hockey stick graphs from around the world, showing an increase in droughts, floods, storms, species extinctions etc etc. But as far as I’m aware these kinds of hockey sticks are as illusory as the Mann variety.
The collection of graphs shown here is very useful, but it’s just a start. I’ve spent some time searching for such data, but with limited success. I found some Palmer Drought Index for regions of the US, which of course showed no trend.
I found the rainfall data for Australia (they have an excellent site with all the data from around 1900). Of course, there has a been a serious drought problem in some Australian regions. Surprisingly, the data shows that in fact the overall rainfall for the continent has been steadily increasing over recent decades. For the regions that have experienced drought, there was some decline, but rainfall levels were merely returning to their early 20th century levels.
It would be great if all data of this kind from around the world could be collected and made available at one place, maybe at WUWT. Of course, there should be no cherry-picking of the data. If there really are drought or storm hockey sticks, they should be included if available.
My expectation is that this collection of data would demonstrate clearly that the world is actually in pretty good shape, for example with global food production growing faster than the population.
The real problem isn’t caused by climate change, unless the world continues to get colder. The real problems are caused by some of the people that live on it. No names, but you can probably guess who!
Chris
Juraj V. (07:19:52) :
“This is also very good read – GLOBAL drought myths debunked.”
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2010/02/24/update-on-global-drought-patterns-ipcc-take-note/
Many thanks, that’s very useful. I was particularly interested in the graph for Africa, which shows no trend.
Several years ago I heard David Miliband on the BBC Today program. He was at the sight of an African drought where people were probably dying. He said something like (with reference to climate change):
“The debate is over. The evidence is all around me….”
Well, I have news for Miliband. There were droughts long before carbon dioxide was invented. Did he have scientific evidence that drought in that region had increased with global warming? I doubt it. There’s no trend for Africa overall. To be honest, I found his attempt to use the suffering of people to push his deranged beliefs in CAGW pretty sickening….
Chris