From NASA News: Solar ‘Current of Fire’ Speeds Up
What in the world is the sun up to now?
In today’s issue of Science, NASA solar physicist David Hathaway reports that the top of the sun’s Great Conveyor Belt has been running at record-high speeds for the past five years.
“I believe this could explain the unusually deep solar minimum we’ve been experiencing,” says Hathaway. “The high speed of the conveyor belt challenges existing models of the solar cycle and it has forced us back to the drawing board for new ideas.”
The Great Conveyor Belt is a massive circulating current of fire (hot plasma) within the sun. It has two branches, north and south, each taking about 40 years to complete one circuit. Researchers believe the turning of the belt controls the sunspot cycle.
Above: An artist’s concept of the sun’s Great Conveyor Belt. [larger image]
Hathaway has been monitoring the conveyor belt using data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). The top of the belt skims the surface of the sun, sweeping up knots of solar magnetism and carrying them toward the poles. SOHO is able to track those knots—Hathaway calls them “magnetic elements”–and thus reveal the speed of the underlying flow.
“It’s a little like measuring the speed of a river on Earth by clocking the leaves and twigs floating downstream,” Hathaway explains.SOHO’s dataset extends all the way back to 1996 and spans a complete solar cycle. Last year, Lisa Rightmire, a student of Hathaway from the University of Memphis, spent the entire summer measuring magnetic elements. When she plotted their speeds vs. time, she noticed how fast the conveyor belt has been going.
A note about “fast”: The Great Conveyor Belt is one of the biggest things in the whole solar system and by human standards it moves with massive slowness. “Fast” in this context means 10 to 15 meters per second (20 to 30 miles per hour). A good bicyclist could easily keep up.
Below: The velocity of the Great Conveyor Belt (a.k.a. “meridianal flow”) since 1996. Note the higher speeds after ~2004. credit: Hathaway and Rightmire, 2010. [larger image]
The speed-up was surprising on two levels.
First, it coincided with the deepest solar minimum in nearly 100 years, contradicting models that say a fast-moving belt should boost sunspot production. The basic idea is that the belt sweeps up magnetic fields from the sun’s surface and drags them down to the sun’s inner dynamo. There the fields are amplified to form the underpinnings of new sunspots. A fast-moving belt should accelerate this process.
So where have all the sunspots been? The solar minimum of 2008-2009 was unusually deep and now the sun appears to be on the verge of a weak solar cycle.
Instead of boosting sunspots, Hathaway believes that a fast-moving Conveyor Belt can instead suppress them “by counteracting magnetic diffusion at the sun’s equator.” He describes the process in detail in Science (“Variations in the Sun’s Meridional Flow over a Solar Cycle,” 12 March 2010, v327, 1350-1352).
The second surprise has to do with the bottom of the Conveyor Belt.
SOHO can only clock the motions of the visible top layer. The bottom is hidden by ~200,000 kilometers of overlying plasma. Nevertheless, an estimate of its speed can be made by tracking sunspots.
“Sunspots are supposedly rooted to the bottom of the belt,” says Hathaway. “So the motion of sunspots tells us how fast the belt is moving down there.”
He’s done that—plotted sunspot speeds vs. time since 1996—and the results don’t make sense. “While the top of the conveyor belt has been moving at record-high speed, the bottom seems to be moving at record-low speed. Another contradiction.”
Above: An artist’s concept of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Launched in Feb. 2010, SDO will be able to look inside the sun to study the conveyor belt in greater detail, perhaps solving the mysteries Hathaway and Rightmire have uncovered. [larger image]
Could it be that sunspots are not rooted to the bottom of the Conveyor Belt, after all? “That’s one possibility” he notes. “Sunspots could be moving because of dynamo waves or some other phenomenon not directly linked to the belt.”
What researchers really need is a good look deep inside the sun. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, launched in February 2010, will provide that when its instruments come online later this year. SDO is able to map the sun’s interior using a technique called helioseismology. SOHO can do the same thing, but not well enough to trace the Great Conveyor Belt all the way around. SDO’s advanced sensors might reveal the complete circuit.
And then…? “It could be the missing piece we need to forecast the whole solar cycle,” says Hathaway.
Stay tuned for that.
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Leif @ur momisugly 9:04:02
Thanks for the correction. Does anyone have any idea why the sunspots during the Maunder Minimum were predominately southern hemispheric?
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Re: Just The Facts (10:18:02):
Or, how about the much simpler fact that we are seeing the highest CO2 levels in centuries?
Yes, all these things play a role in the climate, but the role GH gases play in the troposphere is really not all that complicated, nor poorly understood, and is simpler. The way GH gases “trap” radiation, the warming effect on the troposphere as well as the oceans, land, and the subsequent cooling effect on the stratosphere, is not all that complicated. Occam’s razor would favor the simpler AGW hypothesis…
a little carelessness (apologies for the redo)
It is more than a proposition that the galactic environment that the sun encounters changes its mechanisms of energy action. The sun’s core becomes protonically heavier as part of the process causing the bottom layers of its conveyor belt (convective currents) to slow. This process involves how the sun’s ability to fight off the influx of cosmic rays is overcome. In this fight the rate of flow of the top layers of the sun’s conveyor belt should be expected to speed up as their magnetic potential become more eclipsed by the ionically differentiated magnetic strength of the Interstellar cloud (as part of the star renewal process).
These changes interact with earth’s magnetosphere by allowing it to densify because of the declining impact of the solar wind. Subsequently, earth’s outgoing radiation budget increases and with elemental lags attached the heat budget of all atmospheric layers changes in the only possible abruptly forced turns.
L (10:13:52) :
has a considerably shorter distance to travel before reaching the upwelling zone, no?
The real factor is the density, the distance doesn’t matter much [you also have to add getting down there and back up]
And a nitpicking observation: I think it is unhelpful to refer to the Sun’s axial tilt when what is being described is the tilt of the Earth’s orbital plane.
It depends on from where you look. From a physical standpoint it is the Sun’s axis that is tilted with respect to the ‘invariant plane’ of the planets as a whole.
rbateman (10:21:22) :
Can you elaborate on the loss of C02 (or carbon in particular)?
Loss to space and/or geologic sequestration can accomplish that.
As the Sun heats up [10% per billion year], erosion increases [more evaporation, more rain, and general increase of chemical processes with temperature – about a doubling per 10C increase] so geological sequestration increases. Once you get below some 150 ppm plants starve.
andy adkins (10:30:51) :
With out going into details, your idea is not how things work.
Vuk etc (10:33:26) :
And hey presto no need for plants.
The rest of the biosphere needs plants. And the H2O will also disappear perhaps another billion years thereafter.
Pascvaks (10:35:27) :
Were the sunspots during the Dalton so different?
probably not, but the Sun is messy so don’t expect things to stay constant and nice.
If conveyor belt increses its velocity it means frequency increases and wave length (diameter) decreases.
DoctorJJ (02:45:55) :
I’m kinda lost here. I read that entire article twice and never saw the word “robust”. I’m not sure what to make of this. Without something being robust, I don’t really know what to do.
LOL!
J.Hansford (02:48:30) :
I got no qualms with Hathaway being wrong on previous occasions….. Science is about being wrong, usually more times than you are right….
Dang! Then AGW must be good science, really good!!
Here I been thinking it’s all politics and environmentalism. What was I thinking!
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But seriously maybe he could learn this from Einstein and be more careful before asserting things:
“If A equals success, then the formula is A equals X plus Y plus Z. X is work. Y is play. Z is keep your mouth shut.”
The Solar stuff is definately sexy! I imagine science departments to be organized that the Solar guys get the offices with the big windows over looking the quadrant where all the girls hang out and the weather guys are down the hall, left, then right, next to the maintenance room. AGW is their revenge!!
Anyway, don’t know anything about this so…… the LHC reveals the Higgs and confirms Superstring which reveals that the mechanism underlying entanglement to be little understood. As entanglement occurs over unknown distances; entangled particles seperated a birth by supernovae reconstitute in seperate bodies/planets and remain entangled and pull on each other. Hence the earthquakes when the sun is quiet.
Just kidding!
Leif and I had an interesting discussion over at a thread called ‘social networking’ about solar issues. The sun is definately fun.
Mike Ramsey (10:25:40) :
anna v (07:27:55) :
Ross McKitrick on the development of poor countries and coal:
a little carelessness (apologies for the redo. Also html link changed )
It is more than a proposition that the galactic environment that the sun encounters changes its mechanisms of energy action. The sun’s core becomes protonically heavier as part of the process causing the bottom layers of its conveyor belt (convective currents) to slow. This process involves how the sun’s ability to fight off the influx of cosmic rays is overcome. In this fight the rate of flow of the top layers of the sun’s conveyor belt should be expected to speed up as their magnetic potential become more eclipsed by the ionically differentiated magnetic strength of the Interstellar cloud (as part of the star renewal process).
These changes interact with earth’s magnetosphere by allowing it to densify because of the declining impact of the solar wind. Subsequently, earth’s outgoing radiation budget increases and with elemental lags attached the heat budget of all atmospheric layers changes in the only possible abruptly forced turns.
Mike Ramsey (10:25:40) :
anna v (07:27:55) :
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
John Christy on the morals of energy use for development:
KimW (03:37:25) :
I vividly recall as a second year geology student, ‘Lo, all those years ago’, – 42 actually, – writing as part of a response to a question on a solar cause for the Pleistocene Ice Ages, “The Sun’s energy output is relatively constant and not variable enough to cause or end an Ice Age. Solar physics are well understood.”
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I feel your pain! Though it’s in a different topic.
I find it so fascinating that Nir Shaviv has found that the spiral arms of the galaxy have an important role in climate on earth over the ages.
He’s in this 5 part series in YouTube on the sun and cosmic rays:
Re: JMANON (Mar 13 09:32),
The advantage in space is that materials can be very thin and the solar energy can be used with ion ejection to keep the orbit stable despite the solar wind on the sail like shades. The same method could be used to move them to a desired orbit if used as mirrors. I do not know how long the sail material would last, but it could be replaced the way astronauts do repairs to their ships now.
If the danger of overheating were real then the cheapest and safest solution are the self propelled ships that would seed with salt to increase albedo. They can be stopped on a penny and the salt will fall down with the first rains.
I do believe though that there should be geo engineering studies for the case of an ice age coming. A volcano explosion could trigger it at any time.
I’m a bit confused. If I look at the the graph of conveyor velocity, the 2006 values are substantially higher than those of, say, 2001. How could Hathaway have said in 2006 that the conveyor is crawling so slowly, like never before?
andy adkins (10:56:53) :
a little carelessness (apologies for the redo)
sorry andy, still a bit of nonsense. Here http://solar-center.stanford.edu/activities/ you can learn more.
Anthony, I was struck by the resemblance of the solar conveyor belts to Earth’s “Hadley Cells,” which are responsible for wet tropics. Nice animation:
http://www.nodvin.net/snhu/SCI219/demos/Chapter_7/Chapter_07/Present/animations/50_1_2_1.html
The circulation of the sun’s belts is due to different physical reasons, but the resemblance is striking.
Amino Acids in Meteorites (11:09:12) :
But seriously maybe he could learn this from Einstein and be more careful before asserting things
It is only by asserting things [and making it so clear in your mind that you can assert something] that you find out if it is right or wrong. The problem here is NASA’s incessant hype on this. Hathaway is an enthusiastic scientist and is thus a willing ‘victim’. He loves to talk about his thoughts and work [as many of us do].
OT….as I read and contribute to these comments, I’m really awe-struck by the depth of analysis, seriousness of discussion and attention to detail! Solar physics, atmospheric chemistry, evolutionary biology….
The climate change crowd seem to think we are ignorant, Neanderthal “deniers” without science…..quite honestly, I see MUCH more honest peer review going on these comment threads than in the published climatology literature!
Well done, everyone!
I question a couple of minor items in the figures that are part of this story.
The first figure, an artist’s concept representing the Sun, its core, and the “Conveyor Belt”, shows a partial cross-section with two somewhat elliptically-shaped diagrams that I presume represent the circulating meridional flow. The excerpt from Hathaway’s paper states “The average flow is poleward at all latitudes up to 75 degrees, which suggests that it extends to the poles.” I believe this motion, visible on the Sun’s surface, starts at the equator and proceeds toward each pole, one traveling towards the Sun’s north pole, the other toward the south pole, where it dives down deeply and proceeds at such low levels in the reverse direction until regaining the vicinity of the equator, where it rises and continues toward the poles once again on the surface.
The upper ellipse in the artist’s concept shows an arrowhead that correctly indicates the direction of flow, but the arrowhead on the lower figure appears to be incorrect, as this would imply a flow on the surface FROM the Sun’s south pole TOWARD the equator. And what function is intended for the wobbly vertical line, with an arrow indicating a flow of some sort from near the north pole and ending near the south pole? If it is intended to indicate direction of flow on the Sun’s surface, the line should be broken in two at the equator, with an arrow on one half pointing toward the north pole, the other toward the south pole.
Also, the second figure, whose verticle scale is identified as “Velocity Amplitude” includes a red curve identified as “Sunspot Number 20”. I believe the intent is to represent sunspot numbers for Cycle 23 between 1995 and near the end of 1999, illustrating the apparently odd relationship of sunspot number with sunspot velocity. There appears to be either a wild point or a peculiar discontinuity showing a 50% drop in velocity at the 2008 tick mark.
kim (10:43:04) :
Leif @ur momisugly 9:04:02
Thanks for the correction. Does anyone have any idea why the sunspots during the Maunder Minimum were predominately southern hemispheric?
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Kim, you go girl!
Yes indeed, that’s my kind of question.
Group W thinks at the time of Maunder we were clipped by a passing interstellar cloudlette that predominately hung above the heliosphere as it passed. Just messy enough to mess up the grids of magnetic field reconnections that occur between the ISMF and IMF. (you know fill em full of dust, and cool gas traps, so heliosphere can’t breath properly) Ya know the interstellar region is a messy and chaotic place, (probably where the sun gets some of its chaotic attitude lol)
How about a Medieval warm period created by warm interstellar cloudlette (warm ionized cloudettes too sure) wafting over and around your helisophere bubble or a shock zone. Your ambient background in interstellar space has like moving scenery.
Just passed thru a shock zone lasting maybe 50 years, wouldn’t we expect the region around a collision zone to have wafting cloudlettes travelling in the same direction as the interstellar clouds themselves?
The solar cycle varies? Well so does the so called ambient background and we are learning just how frequent those changes can be within the local interstellar neighborhood this heliosphere is embedded in.
Here’s a bizarro..
The local cavity is open above the halo as well as below. (it’s chute) vizualize a blast coming down the chute and taking us all out to become one of those little merging galaxies we see wrapped around the Milky Way.
“While the top of the conveyor belt has been moving at record-high speed, the bottom seems to be moving at record-low speed. Another contradiction.”
Perhaps it’s just volume. To use the river analogy, when a river across as a shallow bar, the current is always faster than when it is in the deeper channels.
I know absolutely nothing about the Sun. But have a fair bit of experience working with agricultural research scientists. As a result I’m no longer surprised by any research scientist’s ability to overlook the obvious.They seem to hate simple answers.
Leif
You realize that I had the advantage of reading the investigative studies at http://www.leif.org. None of which are disputed. What is however asserted is that the mechanisms driving the solar dynamo are dependent upon its location in the galaxy….I am quite confident that data obtained from SDO will correspond with the data events registered by Voyager and next generation Voyagers….As will the continuation of earthbound events associated with the 700 years young Ice Age
As long as were on a hemispheric rant.. why doe the IBEX see an eqautorial and N. Hemispheric ribbon? Interaction region is T shaped not X?
kim (10:43:04) :
Does anyone have any idea why the sunspots during the Maunder Minimum were predominately southern hemispheric?
No, but such asymmetry is not unusual and does not need any special pleading for an explanation.