From the “weather is not climate unless it supports global warming department”, Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. responds to the claim elevated by Joe Romm (and now picked up by Time Magazine) that the east coast snowstorms are indicators of global warming. While you ponder that, click to watch the DC blizzard in progress via the US Senate live stream:
Comment on Time Article “Another Snowstorm: What Happened to Global Warming?”
There is an article in Time magazine (h/t to Marc Morano for alerting us to it) by Bryan Walsh titled
Another Snowstorm: What Happened to Global Warming?
The article correctly writes
“….it’s a mistake to use any one storm — or even a season’s worth of storms — to disprove climate change (or to prove it)…”
and
“Weather is what will happen next weekend; climate is what will happen over the next decades and centuries. And while our ability to predict the former has become reasonably reliable, scientists are still a long way from being able to make accurate projections about the future of the global climate.”
However, the article contains misinformation. I briefly comment on two issues presented in the article.
1. It is written
“The 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report found that large-scale cold-weather storm systems have gradually tracked to the north in the U.S. over the past 50 years.”
The current set of snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic states this winter actually have become intense further south than average. New England is certainly accustomed to these nor’easters. In an earlier post (see figure top), illustrates that the jet stream (as represented by the lower tropospheric temperature anomalies) was well south of its average position across the northern hemisphere. It is the polar jet stream which is where winter storms develop and intensify.
2. It is written
“As global temperatures have risen, the winter ice cover over the Great Lakes has shrunk, which has led to even more moisture in the atmosphere and more snow in the already hard-hit Great Lakes region, according to a 2003 study in the Journal of Climate.”
A new paper in EOS titled Severe Ice Cover on Great Lakes During Winter 2008–2009 [subscription needed]
writes
“After a decade of little ice cover, from 1997–1998 to 2007–2008, the Great Lakes experienced extensive ice cover during the 2008–2009 winter. The area of Lake Superior covered by ice during the 2008–2009 winter reached 75,010 square kilometers on 2 March 2009, nearly twice the maximum average of nearly 40,000 square kilometers. By this time, Lake Superior was nearly completely ice covered, as were Lake Huron, Lake Erie, and Lake St. Clair, a small basin between Huron and Erie (Figure 1a). Even northern Lake Michigan experienced severe ice cover.”
These news articles would be more accurate (and effective) if the actual behavior of the climate system were presented.
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For those interested, here is a typical winter pattern when we have an El Nino – Anthony
Luboš Motl also weighs in on the issue of linking these snows here
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Not quite clear here …
Why is a respected Scientist like Pielke Sr. responding to any claim “elevated” by Joe Romm? Romm is a complete wack-job who, if he were in the latter stages of hypothermia and Goldman Sachs reps arrived at his door to steal his last winter fuel dime, would still be claiming that the forests are on fire and we are all going to die. [snip], if the guy had no money he would be wandering up and down high street with a placard.
The guy lives in his own world with a few accollites (I went to CP earlier, just to check). I wish I could claim that he just does it all for the money but no – he really has simply lost the plot.
I once had a Prof. who, when questioned (about a very basic matter), headed to the door with her fingers stuck in her ears chanting la..la..la (no joke)
Romm is that Prof. I wish I could offer some sympathy (and a dime or two in his can) but he really is such a nasty piece of work that I just have to laugh as each piece of the collapse hits him square on the head.
Should Pielke Sr. really be spending any valuable time on “Romm Rants”?
How about – yea Joe, warming is cooling, more is less, high is low and blow me – we are the anti-science. [self snip rest of rant…]
Jeff Alberts (12:49:23) :and Bob (Sceptical Redcoat)
But does any self respecting US show have this?
The WINTER OLYMPICS should have been held in DC and Virginia this year.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
What with the snow in the UK a few weeks ago and what looks like a bit more snow tomorrow, I got to thinking about the whole ‘models say increased winter precipitation will occur; hence more snow’ idea. The first thing was to Google winter precipitation and the general idea and impression is this will mean milder winters i.e. more water vapour in the air, and the chance of cold but more rain. Now there is a reason for this which I’ll come to in a minute.
The second little surprise to me (being an empirical physicist and engineer) was Nature’s little show and tell when the snow had come down and took a long time to melt/be cleared (please insert comment about councils here if you see fit). I found out a number of things:
1) When the snow is lying on the ground the surface temperature is colder than when its not (I’m not messing around with this one, just saying)
2) Humidity goes down i.e. the air is a lot dryer
3) The air is generally a lot stiller as well on average (yes there are biting winds) but the air doesn’t feel as warm. Clouds are not as low or as heavy except when another dump or rain is coming.
Now with regards to physics this makes sense. Snow drops surface temperatures, freezes out any vapour close to the surface, thus reducing humidity and dew point, takes a long time to melt and in the process keeps the surface colder (latent heat of fusion) and lets not forget the increased albedo. It’s one big carpet of negative feedback. In fact you could even go as far to say that the heat transfer process becomes dominated by radiative heat transfer because local convection is reduced. The only way the snow goes away in fact is if a warm or wet weather front comes in from somewhere warmer and wetter, otherwise it just sits there waiting on the seasons. Now this may be a bit of a generalisation but how exactly is this snow fall caused by ‘winter precipitation’ going to produce more winter precipitation in the same region once the snow has fallen and sticks? And how is this going to be congruent with an increased surface temperature throughout the winter to produce more winter precipitation?
A logical answer would be well it doesn’t does it? If there is increased winter precipitation then the only chance of maintaining it is if it falls as rain and the surface never freezes over to cause a negative feedback. Then the local evaporation cycle would be maintained without dealing with phase changes in water (as in ice to water) and the shift in local atmospheric constituents and thermodynamics. So either I’m just way off the mark or using the winter precipitation is snow argument is all a load of porkies
@Tenuc (14:47:25) :
“Snowing again at the moment down here in Sunny Sussex b the sea. Very unusual to get this much snow in this part of England!”
Glad to see there are other South Saxons around, feels comradely. Easy to imagine one’s alone in heresy. I’ve been in Sussex for 24 years now and these last winters have certainly been harder than I remember (not that I’ve kept records). As you say …
“Thank goodness it’s only weather :-)” 🙂
“supercritical (12:55:30) :
The BBC’s Media Show today had an interesting discussion on the media’s involvement in hyping AGW, between Simon Jenkins of the Times, and Professor Lewis of the Cardiff school of journalism. ”
Simon Jenkins now writes for the Guardian (and the Sunday Times but was there for the Guardian) and smugly said that his paper had reviewed all the IPCC information and found that it was all still correct (my bad paraphrasing). So that’s all right then. I guess the next review can cite the Guardian as having peer reviewed their work to add gravitas.
“Jeff Alberts (12:49:23) :
Bob (Sceptical Redcoat) (12:41:19) :
You damn Yanks, your snow is falling on us here in the British Isles again. I want a Cap&Trade agreement between us immediately, whereby the USA pays Britain Billions of $ a year to cover the added costs of your cold weather – IPCC please note for AR5.
Only if you can get the Top Gear guys to pronounce Prius, Hyundai, Nissan, and every other car name properly ;)”
Get real, you yanks, it’s you lot that can’t speak proper english!!!
Magazines like Time were probably feeding us as much BS two decades ago as now, but how would we know? The web has made it much harder to economize with the truth. Though the print media are certainly trying.
Romm is clearly a malignant narcissist. You can easily see that in his blog. As such, he will never admit he was wrong. To do so would destroy him as he has to believe he is smarter and better than everyone else.
In addition, he also believes that everyone else is just like him and has exactly the same motivations. People like Romm project constantly. If you want to know what he thinks of himself just read his comments on others.
Bridget H-S (16:00:45):
“Get real, you yanks, it’s you lot that can’t speak proper english!!!”
That is no doubt true. But remember, we learned it from our British ancestors ☺
“weather is not climate unless it supports global warming department”,
this is a more perfect way to put it
http://global-warming.accuweather.com/2009/03/great_lakes_have_seen_a_30_dro.html
This article shows 30% drop in ice coverage since 1979. Actually I’m surprised the article above put all its eggs in one basket with 2008 2009 larger ice extent. After all one winter does not disprove AGW. Its the long term average.
I think Time magazine is just after some of that sweet “Onion” ad revenue.
re: the lights on the dome. So much for making sure the grid stays on for folks who need to warm their apartments and houses during this blizzard. Tell you what Obummer. Turn the damn lights off, those big ones that light up the sky, and give the saved dollars and cents to the little ol’ lady who collects cats so that she can heat her house. On your dime. Now that would make perfect climate sense.
Smokey (10:16:52) : “It’s actually worse than we thought:”
I followed the link. You debbil, you!
Bill Nye (the Science Guy) declared only minutes ago on the Rachael Maddow show that those who’ve responded to the unprecedented snow (72″ in DC?!) from the ongoing blizzards on the Atlantic Coast with any second thoughts about Climate Change are “unpatriotic.”
No kidding…
Any lingering doubts over whether celebrity alarmist “science guys” have become downright political street walkers are, I think, at an end.
Great Lakes Ice, I’m not seeing much yet this year and I live about a half mile north of the bridges in Port Huron MI. Right now I can see water all the way east to Canada, and I actually expected a lot of ice this year. All summer the weatherman said “record lows” or “near record lows” all summer so I figured the big water would be cooler than normal but it’s actually disappointing. actually the local weather was worried that last week’s storm would be a Nor’easter for us because the lakes weren’t frozen but nothing special happened.
Oh you poor things….
I sit here watching birds flutter about a sun splashed back yard in tropical North Queensland… It’s 32 degree celsius, a soft breeze is blowing…. It’s hard. But somebody has to do it.
…. oh, there’s a spangled drongo…..
Sure is a truckload of really angry Rommulans over on CP…all 10 of them!!
Seems even the CRU thought something was rotten in the state of Denmark.
http://yidwithlid.blogspot.com/2010/02/new-climategate-shocker-even-cru.html
J.Hansford (19:25:16) :
Oh you poor things….
I sit here watching birds flutter about a sun splashed back yard in tropical North Queensland… It’s 32 degree celsius, a soft breeze is blowing…. It’s hard. But somebody has to do it.
…. oh, there’s a spangled drongo…..
——
Whatever happened to Spangled Drongo? I miss his contributions – but especially seeing his tag.
I enjoy it when people post what the weather is doing where they are. Learning that it’s snowing in Normandy is oddly comforting, as is the weather report from J. Handsford’s backyard in North Queensland. My beloved late aunt in Cardiff always used to send long missives with half the pages devoted to weather details, which I was puzzled at when young but now understand. Learning about what the weather’s doing elsewhere right now makes the rather grim (and this year boring) Toronto winter seem more evanescent. BTW my sons are envious of the people in Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. – they have the snowballs and snow days that we’re not getting here.
3×2 (15:29:57):
I don’t believe he is wasting his time. Every time one of this myth mechants lies we need to call for the truth. I am grateful to Dr. Pielke for risking his refutation to refute the false accusations that every crisis in the world is caused by AGW.
Please, please, please Anthony do introduce all your weather posts with
This short phrase lets warmists who read your website know that we are onto their double standards and hypocracy.
@Kevin MI
“Some have argued that the snow storms in the mid-atlantic are stronger because of the increase in water vapor in the atmosphere due to global warming. I don’t know what to make of that. ..”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance
Note the examples about end-of-the-world religions. When the end of the world does not arrive, the faithful do not give up their religion. Instead, they invent new excuses for why it did not happen, which often become increasingly bizarre in an attempt to retain the critical parts of their belief against overwhelming evidence….
Quit reading Time magazine years ago. My father always read it and I followed suit, being a faithful subscriber for years, even when we were really hard up for cash.
Then I started noticing something. When covering topics I knew something about, Time always had a subtle twist on the story. Not really false, but not really in line with the facts either. Once I noticed this, it became obvious the writers were twisting the story to fit their view.
I asked myself a very simple question: If Time is not getting it right on the things I know something about, how do I know they are telling the whole truth about matters I am ignorant of?
At that point, I swore I would never read another Time magazine as long as I lived. Haven’t and won’t.
All the comments here about the demise of Time as a source of news are right on the nail. It is only a matter of time before time runs out on Time.
Kevin MI (10:18:39) :
“The thing I have seen that does not support global warming is the cold that was experienced in Florida in January. ”
This has been particularly hard on the manatee.
As feared, Manatee mortality due to cold stress shot through the roof in January. Year-to-date perliminary numbers indicated 77 deaths through January 23:
http://myfwc.com/NEWSROOM/10/statewide/News_10_X_ManateeCold1.htm
But in the most up-to-date numbers, current thrrough February 7, the number has shot to 165!
http://research.myfwc.com/engine/download_redirection_process.asp?file=Feb09.pdf&objid=19105&dltype=article
The average cold stress death total for the same time period, over the last 5 years is only 10!
“climate is what we expect weather is what we get”
M. Twain
DM Dickson (18:37:10) :
Bill Nye (the Science Guy) declared only minutes ago on the Rachael Maddow show that those who’ve responded to the unprecedented snow (72″ in DC?!) from the ongoing blizzards on the Atlantic Coast with any second thoughts about Climate Change are “unpatriotic.”
No kidding…
Any lingering doubts over whether celebrity alarmist “science guys” have become downright political street walkers are, I think, at an end.
Well, maybe not in this case.
Bill Nye and Ed Begley Jr. have been in a “greener than thou” competition for years, starting when they became neighbors. Both are very eco-minded, with the cash and time to invest in whatever looks best, never mind any “payback period.” Solar panels, home gardens, rainwater collection, etc.
And both are now seeing just how badly they have been lied to, and both are… going nuts.
Now would be a good time for Hollywood mental health professionals to offer Green Disease recovery. Maybe Bill and Ed can join a therapy group.