From the “weather is not climate unless it supports global warming department”, Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. responds to the claim elevated by Joe Romm (and now picked up by Time Magazine) that the east coast snowstorms are indicators of global warming. While you ponder that, click to watch the DC blizzard in progress via the US Senate live stream:
Comment on Time Article “Another Snowstorm: What Happened to Global Warming?”
There is an article in Time magazine (h/t to Marc Morano for alerting us to it) by Bryan Walsh titled
Another Snowstorm: What Happened to Global Warming?
The article correctly writes
“….it’s a mistake to use any one storm — or even a season’s worth of storms — to disprove climate change (or to prove it)…”
and
“Weather is what will happen next weekend; climate is what will happen over the next decades and centuries. And while our ability to predict the former has become reasonably reliable, scientists are still a long way from being able to make accurate projections about the future of the global climate.”
However, the article contains misinformation. I briefly comment on two issues presented in the article.
1. It is written
“The 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report found that large-scale cold-weather storm systems have gradually tracked to the north in the U.S. over the past 50 years.”
The current set of snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic states this winter actually have become intense further south than average. New England is certainly accustomed to these nor’easters. In an earlier post (see figure top), illustrates that the jet stream (as represented by the lower tropospheric temperature anomalies) was well south of its average position across the northern hemisphere. It is the polar jet stream which is where winter storms develop and intensify.
2. It is written
“As global temperatures have risen, the winter ice cover over the Great Lakes has shrunk, which has led to even more moisture in the atmosphere and more snow in the already hard-hit Great Lakes region, according to a 2003 study in the Journal of Climate.”
A new paper in EOS titled Severe Ice Cover on Great Lakes During Winter 2008–2009 [subscription needed]
writes
“After a decade of little ice cover, from 1997–1998 to 2007–2008, the Great Lakes experienced extensive ice cover during the 2008–2009 winter. The area of Lake Superior covered by ice during the 2008–2009 winter reached 75,010 square kilometers on 2 March 2009, nearly twice the maximum average of nearly 40,000 square kilometers. By this time, Lake Superior was nearly completely ice covered, as were Lake Huron, Lake Erie, and Lake St. Clair, a small basin between Huron and Erie (Figure 1a). Even northern Lake Michigan experienced severe ice cover.”
These news articles would be more accurate (and effective) if the actual behavior of the climate system were presented.
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For those interested, here is a typical winter pattern when we have an El Nino – Anthony
Luboš Motl also weighs in on the issue of linking these snows here
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Joe Romm and Joy Behar. what a team. They attack Gov Palin. She must be the threat to the planet. At least Gov Palin knows that you put water into the freezer it freezes. Can’t make bisquits in a freezer.
Freezing ice in a freezer is not a sign of warming.
Smokey, I loved this part:
We make it warm… We make it cool…. Man… are we awesome or what!!!!!!
Until a few months ago, people used to believe that snow was associated with cold weather. Humanity has since had an epiphany and has discovered that snow is now caused by heat, rather than cold.
“Sitting in my office a block away from the White House right now and it’s awful (high winds/blowing snow). I’ve lived here all my life and we “normally” get a storm such as the 30″ blizzard last weekend every year around President’s Day…..last weekend’s 30″ storm was our typical, annual, President’s Day storm.”
Normal, just more of it:
“Reagan National Airport (DCA) reported 1″ of snow last hour, upping its storm total (unofficially) to 9.7″. By our math, it now has received 54.8″ this year, exceeding the 54.4″ of 1898-1899.”
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/
I’ll have to differ with you. I grew up in NoVa (from the early 60s to 2002, Fairfax, Manassas, Reston, Herndon, Ashburn, Front Royal…), and these 30″ storms were very rare. I experienced only 2 of them in my lifetime. We night get 30″ over the course of an entire winter, but even that’s fairly unusual. And in DC the snowfall is almost always less than the suburbs (UHI and all).
This VA history of snowfall doesn’t bear out your claim either: http://www.vdem.state.va.us/newsroom/history/winter.cfm
Well if it was in the 60s and sunny in Washington, the Joe Romn would see that as a sign of an imminient tipping point.
You have to be very flexible with your interpretation of the climate system to find no problem with both weather patterns pointing to the same cause.
I guess every weather pattern between the two must also be due to AGW.
I guess this is what passes for science in the land of government grants.
Steve Goddard (12:01:48) I liked that word you used: Epiphany. Who’s the guy who suffered such a catharsis of libido?, Saint Al “Baby” perhaps?
You damn Yanks, your snow is falling on us here in the British Isles again. I want a Cap&Trade agreement between us immediately, whereby the USA pays Britain Billions of $ a year to cover the added costs of your cold weather – IPCC please note for AR5.
The change from the old, reliable news organs of years gone by to the politicised propaganda sheets is one of perception – the world now has the Internet, where you and I can access information we use as ‘truth tests’ for the veracity of statements our politicians make. From my general reading, I believe politicians have been quite liberal with the truth with the aid of a generally subservient MSM.
Intereting times, indeed. Thanks Anthony and crew!
Only if you can get the Top Gear guys to pronounce Prius, Hyundai, Nissan, and every other car name properly 😉
For all “new agers” : It’s AQUARIUS’ lady emptying her jug full of water!
The BBC’s Media Show today had an interesting discussion on the media’s involvement in hyping AGW, between Simon Jenkins of the Times, and Professor Lewis of the Cardiff school of journalism. Those in the UK can hear it again;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00qj1qs
I burst out laughing when the Prof (apparently an AGW protagonist) started whingeing about the hard time the skeptics have been giving the Climate Scientists ……. and that the attacks had been unremitting for the last 20 years …
Unfortunately no-one in the studio had the wit to ask whether the UK climate had actually changed much over that period; and if not, wasn’t that a pretty good reason for giving the AGWers a hard time?
Latest news on the dutch climate fatalists .
According to a committee of dutch selfproclaimed climate scientists the turmoil about the ipcc-claims is nothing more than a storm in a pint of waterAGW stands as a rock and the little bit of smoke from the deniers does not change reality . Their reality of course , their annual grants are in jeopardy now and when you are totally dependent , then of course you behave like a slave of the AGW – singsong . It would be great when elsevier would find out how much these selfproclaimed scientists are cashing directly or indirectly from our dutch green , red and purple government . Only the copenhagen show was supported with over 1.000.000 euro government grants and a famous rioter was given hundreds of thousands euros to support his expensive hobbies , now our dutch parliament has an extra dotation for some wageningen scientists , which is in fact an agricultural university , but like in davis here are apparently the experts, for …………….
propaganda , to make the public aware of their facts . In their view anything is a fact as long as it supports their ideas of global warming and will bring them more financial gains . Who is going to teach them a lesson ?
Sometimes God or we do not need to do it , the climate itself will judge them .
“If it’s cool, it’s weather; if it’s warm, it’s climate.” Or again: All Climate Cultists cheat and lie, but not all cheaters and liars are Climate Cultists. Even yet: If AGW overheats all things, and only those things, that do not overheat themselves, does AGW overheat itself? Hint: If it does, it doesn’t; and if it doesn’t, it does. This “formally undecidable proposition” results from Epimonides’ Paradox of Contradictory Self-reference, which demolished Bertrand Russell and led to Godel’s Theorem concerning axiomatic-systems’ completeness and consistency (1932).
Warmists could do worse than scrutinize Kurt Godel, review Edward Lorenz’s Chaos Theory (1964), familiarize themselves with basic principles of thermodynamic Conservation Laws (see Gerlich and Tscheuschner’s paper in the “Journal of Modern Physics”, March 2009, equating any global atmospheric Greenhouse Effect with perpetual motion, manifestly violating Boltzman’s Law of Entropy). As asserted, AGW on Planet Earth is thus a logical fallacy (Godel); a mathematical fiction (Lorenz); and physically impossible (Boltzman). But, boy! do those Green Bucks roll in.
Smokey>> From the old TIME article:
Since the 1940s the mean global temperature has dropped about 2.7° F.
How does that compute in the light of the IPCC stated temperature rise since the 19th century? 🙂
@ur momisugly Atomic Hairdryer (09:45:18) :
From a UK point of view. Two years ago we had a light sprinkling of early snow when our government was passing it’s climate bill. Last year we had heavier snow. This year it’s been heavier still. Once is natural variability, twice is coincidence, three times is Gaia with a sense of humour? Maybe it’s the Gore effect …”
Guido Fawkes, the UK’s gadfly political blogger, would argue that it’s actually Brown’s Jonah Curse, since whenever he endorses something it tends to collapse into ruin and chaos (a bit like our economy, that was one). And it was Brown who called us all flat-earthers ….
For instance:
http://order-order.com/2010/02/05/jonah-curses-toyota/
The flashing blink gif shows our Dear Leader incanting the spell …
WARNING! The comments (if you bother to read them) can be and usually invariably are deeply offensive to those of a sensitive disposition.
Global Warming causing blizzards etc is raising a laugh everywhere. However the suspicion is that had we not had Hockeystick, Yamal, Climategate, Glaciergate etc etc this nonsense would have been swallowed whole by a lot of people, including the ‘Climate Correspondents’ in the MSM who have jobs depending on the whole scam.
@ur momisugly David Holliday (09:39:48) :
“The flaw in that logic is that weather is what we experience. Proponents can trumpet Global Warming all they like but when the weather that people are experiencing is colder and snowier that noise will fall on deaf ears.”
Ah, David, but they have a cunning plan to deal with that. I suggest you find a couple of matchsticks to keep your eyes open while you read this:
“The Social Simulation of the Public Perception of Weather Events and their Effect upon the Development of Belief in Anthropogenic Climate Change”
http://www.tyndall.uea.ac.uk/sites/default/files/wp58.pdf
Try the diagram on page 10. You’ll be immediately convinced.
Snowing again at the moment down here in Sunny Sussex b the sea. Very unusual to get this much snow in this part of England!
I was expecting to see the effects of the slow start to solar cycle 24 in a couple of years and I find it worrying that the effects are happening so soon. Thank goodness it’s only weather 🙂
“But take heart pascvaks, there was a story floating around the net yesterday or the day before about Time’s circulation being down 9.1%. At that rate, they’re not long for this world.”
I saw a recent copy in my hospital’s waiting room that was so thin that I couldn’t believe it was really Time magazine. Ads are obviously way, way down. The clock is indeed ticking.
Democrats predicted NO SNow.
http://www.blip.tv/file/3199262/
People are hurting.
Oh, I’ve already seen the beginnings of it.
Deconstruction has entered science in the guise of climatology. Cherry picking data and events to support the answer you think is socially correct or supports you’re own agenda.
I wish they’d stop saying “the basic science is robust.” It isn’t robust it’s plain “bust”.
FWIW:I think the DC area now has had the snowiest winter on record with over 55 inches of snow (reported on TV — it’s hard to find actual numbers). Here in the Balt-DC corridor the storm supposed to last until 10PM with another 4 inches expected.