Climate ‘Tipping Points’ May Arrive Without Warning, Says Top Forecaster
From a UC Davis press release
A new University of California, Davis, study by a top ecological forecaster says it is harder than experts thought to predict when sudden shifts in Earth’s natural systems will occur — a worrisome finding for scientists trying to identify the tipping points that could push climate change into an irreparable global disaster.
“Many scientists are looking for the warning signs that herald sudden changes in natural systems, in hopes of forestalling those changes, or improving our preparations for them,” said UC Davis theoretical ecologist Alan Hastings. “Our new study found, unfortunately, that regime shifts with potentially large consequences can happen without warning — systems can ‘tip’ precipitously.
“This means that some effects of global climate change on ecosystems can be seen only once the effects are dramatic. By that point returning the system to a desirable state will be difficult, if not impossible.”
The current study focuses on models from ecology, but its findings may be applicable to other complex systems, especially ones involving human dynamics such as harvesting of fish stocks or financial markets.
Hastings, a professor in the UC Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy, is one of the world’s top experts in using mathematical models (sets of equations) to understand natural systems. His current studies range from researching the dynamics of salmon and cod populations to modeling plant and animal species’ response to global climate change.
In 2006, Hastings received the Robert H. MacArthur Award, the highest honor given by the Ecological Society of America.
Hastings’ collaborator and co-author on the new study, Derin Wysham, was previously a postdoctoral scholar at UC Davis and is now a research scientist in the Department of Computational and Systems Biology at the John Innes Center in Norwich, England.
Scientists widely agree that global climate change is already causing major environmental effects, such as changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, droughts, heat waves and wildfires; rising sea level; water shortages in arid regions; new and larger pest outbreaks afflicting crops and forests; and expanding ranges for tropical pathogens that cause human illness.
And they fear that worse is in store. As U.S. presidential science adviser John Holdren (not an author of the new UC Davis study) recently told a congressional committee: “Climate scientists worry about ‘tipping points’ … thresholds beyond which a small additional increase in average temperature or some associated climate variable results in major changes to the affected system.”
Among the tipping points Holdren listed were: the complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice in summer, leading to drastic changes in ocean circulation and climate patterns across the whole Northern Hemisphere; acceleration of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, driving rates of sea-level increase to 6 feet or more per century; and ocean acidification from carbon dioxide absorption, causing massive disruption in ocean food webs.
The new UC Davis study, “Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning,” was supported by the Advancing Theory in Biology program at the U.S. National Science Foundation and was published online today by the journal Ecology Letters, in its Early View feature: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/123276879/abstract.
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FYI The image is by Anthony, and of course, it’s a spoof.
It’s the Rapture! The last days are here! Repent ye Sinners!
scientists trying to identify the tipping points that could push climate change into an irreparable global disaster.
The avalanche of ‘-gates’ seem to be doing a fairly good job of that right now.
one of the world’s top experts in using mathematical models (sets of equations) to understand natural systems.
At which point I nodded off. (counting “coulds” and “mights” (replaced sheep for me some ago))
An entire press release without the word “robust” – I knew it could be done.
Professor Hastings, please what can I do? I already live in the dark and am managing to be at work on time if I walk briskly at 4:30AM. Sadly my three pets are no longer with us (had to do it – methane) and old uncle Roger is on shaky ground as well. I do still have a stash of dollars under my reed mattress, so could you please let me have your account number in order to deposit my life’s work in order to save the planet – just in case.
P.S. I am typing this on a pedal driven dynamo computer thingy, so can only check for your reply once my wife Bertha gets back from work at 2 AM. She will then take over.
Yours truly,
Dennis Dunderhead
The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling! Oh wait, we’ve already been there, done that. I know – It’s a Wolf! It’s a Wolf! Damn, another repeat. Ummm, let’s see – AGW! AGW! Crap – another one down the tubes. How about Swine Flu Pandemic!! Uh-oh, that doesn’t work either. I Got it! I Got It! Tipping Points!!!!!!
“FYI The image is by Anthony, and of course, it’s a spoof.”
While reading this article I was thinking that the image was real and the article is a spoof.
“In 2006, Hastings received the Robert H. MacArthur Award, the highest honor given by the Ecological Society of America.”
Must have been a thankyou for him furthering the common goal of the Ecological Society of America: Saving more funding.
We already have a mascot, ManBearPig. Google it.
There will be no AGW tipping point, but maybe we should be concerned about a natural cooling tipping point. Temperatures can drop a couple of degrees in a decade.
Now that’s what I call climate change.
Our carbon, which art in the heavens,
damned be thy name,
Thy power be gone,
Emissions none,
On earth as it is in heaven,
Give us this day our daily rations,
And forgive us our emissions.
as we forgive those who emissions are greater,
For their need is more,
his name is Al Gore,
For his is the kingdom, the power and the glory for ever and ever, Carbon.
I really get irritated at long winded pedants. Here’s what they said: S__t Happens.
E.M.Smith (01:17:42) :
Andrew30 (00:12:38) : What is an “ecological forecaster”?
What is a “theoretical ecologist”?
Sorry, I can’t help you.
I’m still working on: What is a “computational biologist”… as in:
“Department of Computational and Systems Biology ”
I know you can multiply numbers but didn’t know they could do it on their own… I think I’ll go ask my spouse if she would like me to whisper sweet infinities in her ear or if we can try integrating our derivatives…
——————
Reply:
It’s sextuple integrals you want.
For a Planet that for the last 4.5 billion years has been growing steadily colder, they manage to have picked the least likely tipping point direction.
Now, if the Sun were to suddenly go flying up the HR diagram and start roasting Earth, that’s external, and we would have no chance of intervening.
Since space travel is prohibitively expensive in soon-to-be economically shut-down economies, it won’t be the West that gets off the Planet.
Nice guy that Holdren, as must-read, provided one is not squeamish.
let me see if I can follow this…
1. Scientists say that tipping points can’t be predicted.
2. Scientists predict a tipping point ahead.
3. Scientists say tipping points are due to AGW.
4. Scientists can provide no evidence for tipping points or AGW.
5. Scientists need more funding to research the above.
6. If we don’t give Scientists massive funding to research the above we will all die and our grandchildren will hate us forever.
Hmm… no wonder MSM is alerting the population. This is indeed dire.
“A new University of California, Davis, study by a top ecological forecaster says it is harder than experts thought to predict when sudden shifts in Earth’s natural systems will occur — a worrisome finding for scientists trying to identify the tipping points that could push climate change into an irreparable global disaster.”
Climatology has become a playground for statisticians, who without really understanding our complex interlinked non-linear climate, try to find correlations which fail to separate cause and effect. They use a variety of computer models, none of which have good predictive power.
Ecological forecasters have turned the science of understanding how nature works into a game of computer modelling (mainly based on variants of the logistics difference equation) which, because of deterministic chaos, have little useful predictive power.
It is amazing that it has taken so long for these scientist’s to smell the coffee regarding rapid climate change. One look at the Vostok ice core data shows that rapid climate change is normal and there is only one way it will tip the next time this happens.
http://www.ianschumacher.com/img/iceagetemphist.png
Bogeyman? What bogeyman :-(((((
Predict tipping points? Yeah right. Predicting the next stock market crash is easier yet no one is willing to bet their house on it as they are never sure. So, why are we betting the whole country on a scam?
The study of people who think this way, and the people who make policy based on this type of thinking, deserves to have its own taxonomy. I propose that it be called “crimatology.”
OK, so here’s how it goes.
The effects on ecosystems cannot be seen until you reach a tipping point.
Such a tipping point cannot be predicted, but will arrive without warning.
The argument for a tipping point is therefore simultaneously unverifiable and unfalsifiable.
No evidence can be produced to show a crisis is developing, and its non-arrival never disproves any prediction.
In what possible sense is this argument scientific ?
BBC Headline from last night,
‘Spring is coming earlier every year’ and ‘ Global warming could be the cause’
As the BBC has tens of millions of pounds worth of pension funds sunk into Green Ponzi schemes are they trying to ‘Pump and dump’ their shares?
Mike McMillan (01:41:22) :
Yes, Locusts. That is what an old-timer told me the 30’s were like out here in NW California. It was incredibly hot and arid, and what the locusts didn’t eat the caterpillars that came out of nowhere polished off. The fields were bare.
What was saved of the herds perished in ’37 & ’38, when the snows hit and trapped the cattle where they stood.
But that was well before Global Warming, C02 and oceanic acidification/rise/fishing failures and computer simulations of AGW.
This snip is getting so ridiculous I would laugh out loud… IF they weren’t engaging in their money drunken pronouncements with OUR money… Someone said they need a mascot… I propose Mel Gibson… in Mel’s defense, His drunken pronouncements are funded with money he earned.
As for tipping points, many believe credibility in climate science is past the tipping point. How many sharks are these numbskulls going to jump?
Enough is enough, time to turn off the money spigot. We’re not afraid anymore, wake up pols and scis the free ride is almost over.
WE said:
”
I love it. It’s impossible to predict tipping points, and they can occur without warning, so their conclusion is … EVERYBODY PANIC!!!
Here’s the thing. Any human action could be pushing us either closer to or further from a “tipping point”. Since we can’t predict tipping points, the odds of either one are about equal.
As a result, there is no reason to think that man’s effect on the climate (whatever that might be) is moving us toward a tipping point. It is just as likely to be moving us away from a tipping point.
Don’t these “scientists” understand statistics? Never mind, I see that question has already been answered …”
Don’t you know? Since humans = bad and nature = good, any change caused by humans is a priori bad! It’s the green version of Original Sin.
Honestly, this is getting like watching a child try to weasel out of getting caught lying. The lies just get bigger and more creative and less and less connected with reality. Suddenly accidentally breaking a vase playing ball inside the house turns into black suited ninja’s battling the dog men and they broke the vase. In our case no matter how badly the data is fudged, how many lies and distortions and mistakes are discovered, it’s always WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT! and it’s still happening even if all our data is bunk.
Depressing but hardly surprising unfortunately.
It is interesting to ask which will come first – the tipping point in the climate or the tipping point in the political interests of those selling AGW?
I definitely think that there is one round the corner…maybe.
Big Al’s Tpiing Point Reached? Almost Reached?
Al awaits confirmation from MSM.
…-
“Washington and Philadelphia each need about another 9 inches (23 centimetres) to give the cities their snowiest winters since 1884, the first year records were kept.”
“D.C. prepares for Snowpocalypse 2
By Brett Zongker, THE ASSOCIATED PRESS ”
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/2010/02/08/12789011-ap.html
Let me get this right:
If the Yellowstone Supervolcano goes off we’re doomed, doomed!
If another asteroid like the one that killed the dinosaurs hits we’re doomed, doomed!
If the flu virus mutates into something ghastly we’re doomed, doomed!
If the wrong people get hold of nuclear technology then we’re doomed, doomed!
If a climate tipping point tips then we’re doomed, doomed!
Or maybe not.
This is like those endless food/cancer scares. Over the years we have been told that just about everything causes cancer and not to eat it. We have now got to the ‘water off a duck’s back’ stage with the general public.
It the same for tabloid science like this. Great fun in a hollywood movie but don’t take it too seriously. I think this is like UFO’s and Nuclear Holocast in the 1950’s or the ‘Yellow Peril’ from before that. A little science and a lot of BS fills up the column inches.
“Many scientists are looking for the warning signs that herald sudden changes in natural systems, in hopes of forestalling those changes, or improving our preparations for them,” said UC Davis theoretical ecologist Alan Hastings. “Our new study found, unfortunately, that regime shifts with potentially large consequences can happen without warning — systems can ‘tip’ precipitously.
Hmmm….. can’t see the tipping point for the warning trees.
can’t see the warning trees for the natural systems.
can’t find the forestalling preparations for the tangles mess of predictions.
Unfortunately it’s a travesty without warning of an explanation.
Translation – We’re stumped.
Murphy can’t be far behind.
Run for it.