Another east coast snowstorm brewing

Forecasts call for another 20 inches of snow in Washington DC with snow spreading to NYC this time.

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) — Storm systems barreling across the country may bring as much as 20 inches (50 centimeters) of new snow to Washington and Baltimore starting late tomorrow, while New York may receive a foot, forecasters said.

With the Washington-Baltimore area still digging out from a weekend storm that left record snowfalls in some areas, the latest blast of winter “is going to be accompanied by heavy winds, which will make it feel worse, and across the Northeast that wind is going to last through the weekend,” said Tom Kines, a meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc.

A winter storm watch was posted today by the National Weather Service for New York, Long Island, southern Connecticut, Rhode Island and southern Massachusetts. A winter storm warning was posted for Washington starting at noon tomorrow, and 10 to 20 more inches may fall, the agency said.

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April E. Coggins
February 9, 2010 8:54 pm

LOL! The Democrats are closing down government for the rest of this week because of the snow and next week is a scheduled vacation. I can’t wait until they come back from vacation demanding that “we act now” to save humanity from global warming, The “D” in DC stands for “disarray.” The politicians are in such a mess, they are fleeing each other. I love it. Some time soon, the American public will wake up and realize that no one is in charge anymore and we are free again. The self-appointed babysitters have fled the house and are hiding under the front porch. Now all we have to do is call the exterminators.

pft
February 9, 2010 9:39 pm

“BarryW (11:34:03) :
Washington only had officially “only” 17.8 inches. The Washington Post article tries to explain why, while everybody else in the area got much more:”
I flew out of Dulles on Monday morning, a connecting flight from Boston, and while I had seen reports that Dulles had 30 inches, from my observation it appeared closer to 1 1/2 ft with drifts perhaps being as much as 2 1/2 ft.
Sometimes airport s and towns report higher than actual numbers to appear more deserving of money when it comes time for budgets or federal/state aid, or just to provide a better excuse for the delay in removing the snow from roads/runways.
Meanwhile in Taipei it is a balmy 83 deg F, pretty warm for February. But thats just weather (it was darn cold in December/Jaunuary), and warm is certainly better than cold, jet lagged or not.

Editor
February 9, 2010 9:51 pm

Wakefield Tolbert (17:06:29) :
> The polar ice cap is vanishing at a rate far faster than the worst IPCC predictions.
Vanishing seems to be a strong word, especially since the summer lows for the last couple of years are going up from the record (30 year) low in 2007.
> Low lying island nations such as Tuvalu are already being forced to begin relocating due to rising sea levels.
How much of that nation has been evacuated so far? Maldives too.
> An overwhelming majority of scientists globally concur on the basic facts
Sure, like CO2 is increasing, the planet has warmed since the last ice
age, 1998 sure featured a strong El Nino. Those seem pretty basic, did
you have some in mind (or your physicist acquaintance)?

Wakefield
February 9, 2010 11:59 pm

Ric Werme (21:51:36)
Basic? Perhaps on those notes. Sure. But what about his other claims, more recent, to the effect of, say…. TEN YEARS of emails combed over, only to find and snag out a couple of supposedly damning nits from the strands. And even here, we’re given the defense of “we scientists are just human too.”
NO evidence of nefarious Soros money or global conspiracy. Human failings on the emotional front at most, so they tell me. But nothing really damning:
The so-called ‘climategate’ is climate change denial’s last gasp. Hackers stole ten years worth of emails, and they were scoured for anything that might appear damning, finding only two that have been endlessly paraphrased since. The term ‘trick’ is commonly used in science journals as an accepted clever methodology rather than an intent to deceive, and the study mentioned in the email that includes the word ‘trick’ plays no part in official IPCC findings. The ‘can’t explain the decline’ email refers to a study of tree ring formation, and rather than being a secret, the scientist who wrote the email also wrote a public article about his inability to explain his findings.
(emphasis mine)
As to the more recent supposed IPCC “GlacierGate” that has everyone in an donnybrook/uproar (over supposed lifting of material from students and magazine articles as the alleged “only” or “chief” source material) there was a TYPO–and nothing more–about 2035 being the proximate date of Himalayan glacier meltdown rather than the INTENDED date of 2350. The authors of the IPCC report in this regard have admitted the error and did so before the blogosphere got wind of it, AND have reminded people that a slower melt of the world’s glaciers is a melt nontheless, with serious ramifications for those societies and cultures that presently depend on water from said sources.

Wakefield
February 10, 2010 12:00 am

PS to Ric–good snark on the DMHO link from part of your site. Funny stuff.
I’m off to the haystack with a cold glass of that….

Wakefield
February 10, 2010 12:08 am

PS–to Ric.
Just toured your site (albeit very briefly)
Was suprised, in that generally most of the “Darwin Fish” types who’d place that little funny leg-sprouter on the car are safely Leftist in orientation in addition to being also the types that have about 100 other stickers, and make mocking noises about religion and so on in other similar missives. Usually the Leftist goes hand-in-hand with Climate Change Warning advocacy.
Exceptions proving the rule?

February 10, 2010 1:55 am

E.M.Smith (19:13:49) :
Great story! I especially liked the part about buying coffee wearing the wet-suit long-underwear. Thanks!

Jack Simmons
February 10, 2010 3:03 am

Tom in Florida (04:58:54) :

Any news on the drought that global warming caused in Georgia (U.S.) over the last couple of years? Seems like that has gone the way of other AGW “evidence”.

http://newsflavor.com/alternative/the-georgia-drought-is-over/

Raving
February 10, 2010 6:31 am

Lol. It is snowing in Buffalo again

crosspatch
February 10, 2010 8:36 am

Mom about 100 miles East of DC reports complete white-out conditions, she gave up on the driveway. They got some rain on top of the two feet of snow which made a nice crust on it and will cause it to stay longer as the crust slows melting and prevents the snow under it from blowing around. She reports another 4 to 6 inches of new snow on top of that crust.

crosspatch
February 10, 2010 11:05 am

And it looks like the storm has stalled and is simply sitting there rotating with little overall movement over the past couple of hours.

Roger Knights
February 10, 2010 11:20 am

Wakefield:
As to the more recent supposed IPCC “GlacierGate” that has everyone in an donnybrook/uproar (over supposed lifting of material from students and magazine articles as the alleged “only” or “chief” source material) there was a TYPO–and nothing more–about 2035 being the proximate date of Himalayan glacier meltdown rather than the INTENDED date of 2350.

Here’s an exchange I had with a couple of commenters here that should make it clear that it wasn’t a typo:

RK: Now that the dust has settled, the “typo” idea should be dropped. Not even Choo Choo, Lal, or the IPCC has the brass to make that excuse, although maybe they don’t have to, with Seth Borenstein doing it for them at the AP. Here’s what I wrote a couple of weeks ago about this matter, in response to crosspatch:

crosspatch (21:20:15) :
“According to Prof Graham Cogley (Trent University, Ontario), a short article on the future of glaciers by a Russian scientist (Kotlyakov, V.M., 1996, The future of glaciers under the expected climate warming, 61-66, in Kotlyakov, V.M., ed., 1996, Variations of Snow and Ice in the Past and at Present on a Global and Regional Scale, Technical Documents in Hydrology, 1. UNESCO, Paris (IHP-IV Project H-4.1). 78p estimates 2350 as the year for disappearance of glaciers, but the IPCC authors misread 2350 as 2035 in the Official IPCC documents, WGII 2007 p. 493! ”
So there you go. That’s how they came up with 2035. It was supposed to be 2350.

RK: No, that was just a first guess as to where the mistake had come from, because someone [Cogley] noticed the 2305 number and speculated that a transposition had been made. Now [thanks to Cogley’s deeper digging] we know the true source, the Hasnian cliam via the New Scientist report via WWF, because the footnote in AR4 referenced the latter, and the parties involved in making and reporting the claim have disclosed what went on.

More later.

Kay
February 10, 2010 11:57 am

Still snowing here in western PA.

Wakefield Tolbert
February 10, 2010 12:29 pm

Ric Werme (21:51:36)
I do indeed have some more from this person:
(Responding to someone who posted that Exxon Mobile is outspent by an alleged ratio of 1000-1 by government on the issue of Climate Change/AGW research, and then adding more….)
As for your chart purportedly showing government vastly outspending EM on climate change research (It never indicates where joannenova.com obtained those statistics, or how they were compiled, but I’ll let that pass) , EM still gives large amounts of money to think tanks like the American Enterprise Institute, Heritage Foundation and countless others that publish studies by climate skeptics. Such money would not be included in the joannenova.com tally.
Not only that, but EM also influences public policy in other ways, such as campaign donations and lobbying. It isn’t surprising that you hear Republicans like James Inhofe and Sarah Palin, but of whom receive significant largesse from the oil industry, claiming that climate change is bunk. Such politicians have significant influence on public debate, and help at least reinforce the public perception that climate change isn’t “settled science.”
Aside from that, why do you assume that all of the climate change research comes from the government? The vast majority of the influential literature comes from scientists employed by universities, public and private, and who publish their work in scientific journals. A few of these scientists may hold positions in bodies like the IPCC, but most don’t.
The vast majority of the serious scientific literature argues that human beings are responsible for climate change. That isn’t really a matter of debate.
What’s more, scientists have known since the nineteenth century that carbon dioxide absorbs heat. We know that there is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than ever, and that this amount is growing.
The consequences of climate change are real, too. If you visit western Canada or the US, you will see huge swaths of forest that are dying from pine beetle infestations, which are no longer killed off during the winters, which have become increasingly mild.
http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0805/full/clim
Whole lakes have disappeared in Africa, which has caused widespread famine and disease there. Viruses like west nile and malaria are expanding their range and moving farther from the equator.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/01/0
Given these facts alone, none of which “climategate” disproves, the responsible thing for us to do is seek ways to limit carbon emissions.

February 10, 2010 2:41 pm

Wakefield,
A few rebuttal points:
The climate peer review system has been thoroughly corrupted by a rent-seeking clique of self-serving connivers. There is no doubt about this, and there is no need for me to cite what I and others have cited endlessly on this site. The emails that are simply hand-waved away by your MacClean’s commentators were much more serious than they think.
Those leaked emails [along with the Harry_read_me file] singlehandedly caused the failure of Cop15, and they are eating away like acid at the CO2=CAGW hypothesis.
How can they not be? They freely admitted that they simply fabricated entire data sets; they made them up. The credulous fools who downplay that scientific misconduct are badly misjudging the situation.
The emails also disclose that ‘hide the decline’ meant that they hid data that would have shown cooling rather than their invented warming. And to this day, no one has denied the validity or provenance of the emails. They can’t; they don’t know what else is out there, and too many people involved have already attested that the emails are genuine.
Next, there is no verifiable, empirical evidence showing that human activity is responsible for climate change. None. I say again: N-O-N-E. Human activity may be responsible for a slight change in global temperature. But that is still an unproven hypothesis. To post, as you did, that The vast majority of the serious scientific literature argues that human beings are responsible for climate change. That isn’t really a matter of debate is simply an opinion of facts that are not in evidence.
Show us empirical [real world] evidence that humans are responsible for climate change. You will have been the first to be able to do so. Even the idea that humans can cause global climate change is ridiculous, and there exists zero evidence for that assertion.
Finally, the current red-faced, spittle flecked arm-waving by the lunatic CO2=CAGW contingent sounds remarkably identical to past prophets of doom: click1, click2
The natural, constantly changing variability of the planet’s climate always brings out prophets of doom. This time is no different. So get a grip, and look at the situation from the perspective of natural variability: today’s climate is completely ordinary. It is well within its historical parameters. Nothing unusual is happening. In fact, the climate is currently very benign.
The only ones who are benefitting from climate alarmism are the prophets of doom, who have no real evidence to support their proselytizing.
But as long as they can scare unthinking people into believing that a harmless, beneficial trace gas such as CO2 is gonna get us all, they don’t need scientific evidence. All they need are gullible people. Don’t be their victim. You will only regret it later.

Wakefield Tolbert
February 10, 2010 3:05 pm

Well, Smokey, those are some interesting points, to be sure. Agreed.
And the hungry beetles no longer being nipped by cold Rocky Mountain air?

Ron de Haan
February 10, 2010 4:16 pm

The Capital Weather Gang:
“2009-2010 winter thus far puts D.C. above the previous high mark of 54.4″ set way back in 1898-1899. Baltimore has also broken its all-time record with this event”.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/?hpid=topnews

February 10, 2010 6:29 pm

Wakefield Tolbert (15:05:38),
This could get endless. If you won’t think for yourself, there isn’t much hope.
So I’ll wind this up by pointing out that a 0.7° increase in global temperature over more than a century didn’t cause a pine beetle infestation in one small corner of the globe. That is a classic argumentum ad ignorantium; the fallacy of assigning a cause simply because the writer couldn’t think of another reason [actually, they could easily think of other reasons. But those reasons aren’t as likely to bring in new grants].
It’s the same mindset that assigns all global warming to a tiny trace gas because they can’t think of other causes.
Apparently most CO2=CAGW believers have never heard of Occam’s Razor: Never increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything.
Adding an unnecessary entity like CO2 to an explanation of climate variability makes the situation more complicated than necessary, and so eventually you end up with rent-seeking grant hogs trying to explain a local beetle infestation — as if no beetle infestations had ever occurred prior to the advent of SUVs. See how silly it all sounds when you don’t buy into the AGW claptrap?
Come on, Wakefield, you’re smarter than that… I sincerely hope.

Roger Knights
February 11, 2010 10:05 am

@Wakefield: Here’s what one poster here said a couple of months ago re pine beetles, (I’ll respond to your other points in time):

RJ Hendrickson (20:40:18) :
The bark beetle kill-off was a result of a drought, not lack of cold in the winter. Pine trees always have a few bark beetles hanging about. They punch a hole in the bark, and it fills up with sap, preventing more beetles from being attracted by the original beetles phemerones. In a drought condition, the trees lack moisture, and not enough sap is produced to plug the hole, and lots of new beetles come to the tree. Enough beetles will eventually girdle the cambium, and the tree is kaput. Cold doesn’t kill beetles, rain does.

Wakefield
February 11, 2010 12:15 pm

Smokey and Roger, thanks for the input.
I was not trying to make an endless set of posts out of this. Just asking questions. “Smarter than that” does not indicate I’d know all the little factoids floating around out there about the claims of AGW. (But thanks for the vote of confidence.)
RealClimate has smart people to, as does ScienceBlogs.
I freely admit to being neither a climatologist or computer-modeler or anywhere near such. I posted what I did from the others who claimed to have some kind of inside scoop exactly to see what this equally smart crowd of folks hangin’ around WUWT had to say about matters, as I’m new to this site.
And the “smart” comment is NOT meant to be sarcastic.
I do appreciate your input.

Roger Knights
February 11, 2010 3:38 pm

Wakefield: The authors of the IPCC report in this regard have admitted the error and did so before the blogosphere got wind of it,

It’s true that the error was dug out by Cogley, an IPCC accomplice, and by Fred Pearce, a red-hot warmist journalist who wrote for New Scientist, rather than by a blogger. However, saying the IPCC acted before the blogosphere put them up to it incorrectly hints that the IPCC would have taken action if it hadn’t feared that Pearce or Cogley would go public, perhaps via the bloggers, if a correction wasn’t made. The IPCC’s record prior to that point was one of denial and coverup as long as it thought it could get away with it:
1. Haisnain, the WWF, and I presume other IPCCers in attendance, ignored glacier expert Gwyn Rees’s 2004 UK-government-funded debunking rapid-melting claims and his speech warning that Haisnan’s 2035 date was ridiculous. He forced New Scientist to publish a retraction in 2004 after it had published Haisnan’s claim that Rees’s study was alarmist about the melting rate, so this was widely known:

From The Sunday Times — January 31, 2010
Panel ignored warnings on glacier error
Jonathan Leake
Another warning came from Gwyn Rees, a British hydrologist who oversaw a £300,000 study funded by the UK government in 2001 to assess the claims about rapid melt.
His findings were published in 2004 — three years before the IPCC report — and also showed there was no risk of rapid melt.
Rees said: “The sheer size and altitude of these glaciers made it highly unlikely they would melt by 2035.”
The new revelations follow a report in The Sunday Times this month which forced the IPCC to retract its claim that the glaciers in the Himalayas might be gone by 2035.
They raise more questions about why the IPCC ever took the claim seriously. It means the UN panel ignored scientific publications rejecting the rapid-melt theory in favour of claims that had been reported only in the non-scientific media and in a report by WWF, a conservation pressure group.
The saga began with Syed Hasnain, the Indian glaciologist who issued the first warnings about rapid glacier melt in media interviews in 1999. He now works for The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) in Delhi, which is run by Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC.
It was those claims that prompted Britain to fund the study by Rees — who recruited Hasnain to help lead it.
Rees, a water resource scientist at the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, a government research centre, said Hasnain had signed up to the study’s conclusions. These stated that any suggestions the region’s glaciers might soon melt “would seem unfounded”.
Hasnain was also in the audience at a seminar sponsored by the EU in 2004 where Rees gave a presentation suggesting there would be some glacial melt, but nothing on the scale suggested by Hasnain. His closing slide read: “It is unlikely that all glaciers will vanish by 2035!”
That same audience also included representatives from WWF who were compiling their own report on glacier melt. Despite Rees’s warnings, they later decided to include Hasnain’s claims in their report, published in 2005, from where they were picked up by the IPCC.
In 2004, Rees had assumed the rapid-melt claims would not be repeated, but in May that year Hasnain gave an interview to New Scientist suggesting the UK-funded study had confirmed his claims of rapid glacier melt.
In it he said: “Global warming has already increased glacier melting by up to 30%. After 40 years, most glaciers will be wiped out and we will have severe water problems.”
A furious Rees made the magazine publish a retraction in its letters page, describing Hasnain’s comments as a “gross misrepresentation”.
This weekend it emerged that the leaders of the IPCC had known for weeks and probably months about the error and had even convened private conferences to discuss it.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7009707.ece

2. Raised-eyebrow comments during the review process from Japan and others about the source etc. of 2035 were dealt with perfunctorily. Only a citation of the WWF article was added.

New Documents Show IPCC Ignored Doubts About Himalayan Glacier Scare
Sunday, 24 January 2010
The contentious 2035 date appears in the paragraph from lines 13 to 17 on page 46 of the second order draft of Working Group II. The only changes to the draft text in the finally published text are the removal of a short redundant sentence and the addition the reference to (WWF, 2005).
David Saltz, of the Desert Research Institute, Ben Gurion University made three comments on this short paragraph including one upon the obvious inconsistency of saying first that the likelihood is very high that Himalayan glaciers will “disappear” by 2035 if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate, and then stating “Its total area will shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 km2 by the year 2035”. The Lead Author’s response to the comment on inconsistency was:
“Missed to clarify this one”.
The Government of Japan commented rather more critically:
“This seems to be a very important statement, possibly should be in the SPM, but is buried in the middle of this chapter. What is the confidence level/certainty? (i.e.“the likelihood of the glaciers disappearing is very high” is at which level of likelihood? (ref. to Box TS-1, “Description of Likelihood”). Also in this paragraph, the use of “will” is ambiguous and should be replaced with appropriate likelihood/confidence level terminology.”
The Lead Authors’ response to Government of Japan was:
“Appropriate revisions and editing made”.
From what I can see the Lead Authors found none appropriate.
The paragraph, following the 2035 claim and table 10.10, begins:
“The receding and thinning of Himalayan glaciers can be attributed primarily to the global warming due to increase in anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases.”
Hayley Fowler from Newcastle University commented with citations:
“I am not sure that this is true for the very large Karakoram glaciers in the western Himalaya. Hewitt (2005) suggests from measurements that these are expanding – and this would certainly be explained by climatic change in preciptiation and temperature trends seen in the Karakoram region (Fowler and Archer, J Climate in press; Archer and Fowler, 2004) You need to quote Barnett et al.’s 2005 Nature paper here – this seems very similar to what they said.”
The Lead Authors responded:
“Was unable to get hold of the suggested references will consider in the final version”
The Government of Japan again noted the lack of any reference and commented rather critically:
“This statement lacks any reference. Also, the reader wonders, are “global warming” and “climate change” interchangeable? Are we still using “global warming”? Clarification of this would be appreciated.”
“The use of “will” (again) is ambiguous. The confidence level using IPCC terminology should be stated.”
The Lead Author’s response to Government of Japan was once again:
“Appropriate revisions and editing made”.
But once again none were made either in response to Hayley Fowler or the Government of Japan.
For the IPCC TSU, Clare Hanson commented that there was only one reference for the whole section. This was Hasnain, 2002. To Clare Hanson the Lead Authors’ response was:
“More references added”.
So far as I can tell only Shen et al., 2002 and WWF, 2005 were added.
http://www.thegwpf.org/international-news/459-new-documents-show-ipcc-ignored-doubts-about-himalayan-glacier-scare.html

3. Lead Author Georg Kaser’s e-mail to the IPCC’s technical support team prior to publication about 2035 was ignored.

Roger Pielke, Jr. — 18 January 2010
Stranger and Stranger
The fallout from the IPCC Himalayan glacier situation gets stranger and stranger. Now an IPCC lead author has stepped forward claiming that the error has been known by the IPCC all along. From Agence France-Presse:

A top scientist said Monday he had warned in 2006 that a prediction of catastrophic loss of Himalayan glaciers, published months later by the UN’s Nobel-winning climate panel, was badly wrong.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report said in 2007 it was “very likely” that the glaciers, which supply water to more than a billion people across Asia, would vanish by 2035 if global warming trends continued.
“This number is not just a little bit wrong, but far out of any order of magnitude,” said Georg Kaser, an expert in tropical glaciology at the University of Innsbruck in Austria.
“It is so wrong that it is not even worth discussing,” he told AFP in an interview.
…………
Kaser said some of the scientists from other regional groups took heed of suggestions, and made corrections ahead of final publication in April 2007.
But the Asia group did not. “I pointed it out,” he said of the implausible prediction on the glaciers.
“For a reason I do not know, they did not react.”
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/01/stranger-and-stranger.html

Here’s the IPCC’s excuse for how it dropped the ball:

January 25, 2010, 6:02 pm
Explanation Offered for Error in U.N. Climate Report
By JAMES KANTER
The official, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, a vice chairman of the climate change panel, said that a glaciologist, Georg Kaser at the University of Innsbruck, in Austria, had sought to correct the information about the glaciers before it was published by the panel but that the correction came too late and never reached the people who could fix the statement.
“It’s very unfortunate,” Dr. van Ypersele said, because Dr. Kaser “actually provided the correct information, but not to the correct person.”
The lead authors “didn’t, from my understanding, get the caveats that would have been useful,” Dr. van Ypersele said.
He added that he had examined records of e-mail messages and found that the authors had never received the pertinent message from Dr. Kaser. Furthermore, Dr. Kaser’s “most pointed criticism” of the findings on glacial melting came after the contents of the report had been completed, Dr. van Ypersele said.
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/25/explanation-offered-for-error-in-un-climate-report/

4. Lead Author Georg Kaser’s letter to Asia group head Dr. Lal was ignored. (Lal said in response that he never got it. A “likely story,” IMO.)

Glacier scientist: I knew data hadn’t been verified
By David Rose
Last updated at 12:54 AM on 24th January 2010
Last week, Professor Georg Kaser, a glacier expert from Austria, who was lead author of a different chapter in the IPCC report, said when he became aware of the 2035 claim a few months before the report was published, he wrote to Dr Lal, urging him to withdraw it as patently untrue.
Dr Lal claimed he never received this letter. ‘He didn’t contact me or any of the other authors of the chapter,’ he said.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1245636/Glacier-scientists-says-knew-data-verified.html#

5. In early November ChooChoo scornfully dismissed the correction in the report issued by VK Raina of India’s Geological Survey, calling it voodoo science. Here’s WUWT’s thread on the matter then:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/11/pachauri-claims-indian-scientific-position-arrogant/

6. Later in November ChooChoo was informed about the error by Pavlia Bagla but he took no action. This is in line with the IPCC’s hear-no-evil precedents described above. Here’s a story by Andrew Bolt summarizing the matter:

Pachauri lied about Himalayan warning
Andrew Bolt — Saturday, January 30, 2010
Rajendra Pachauri, head of the increasingly suspect IPCC, is caught out lying and now must surely go:
Rajendra Pachauri was told that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment that the glaciers would disappear by 2035 was wrong, but he waited two months to correct it…
Dr Pachauri … told The [London] Times on January 22 that he had only known about the error for a few days. He said: “I became aware of this when it was reported in the media about ten days ago. Before that, it was really not made known. Nobody brought it to my attention. There were statements, but we never looked at this 2035 number.”
Asked whether he had deliberately kept silent about the error to avoid embarrassment at (his IPCC) Copenhagen (summit last December), he said: “That’s ridiculous. It never came to my attention before the Copenhagen summit…”
However, a prominent science journalist said that he had asked Dr Pachauri about the 2035 error last November. Pallava Bagla, who writes for Science journal, said he had asked Dr Pachauri about the error…
Dr Pachauri had previously dismissed a report by the Indian Government which said that glaciers might not be melting as much as had been feared. He described the report, which did not mention the 2035 error, as “voodoo science”.
Mr Bagla said he had informed Dr Pachauri that Graham Cogley, a professor at Ontario Trent University and a leading glaciologist, had dismissed the 2035 date as being wrong by at least 300 years. Professor Cogley believed the IPCC had misread the date in a 1996 report which said the glaciers could melt significantly by 2350. [This was his first guess at the source of the error. later he realized it came from Haisnan.–RK]
Mr Pallava interviewed Dr Pachauri again this week for Science… In the taped interview, Mr Pallava asked: “I pointed it out [the error] to you in several e-mails, several discussions, yet you decided to overlook it. Was that so that you did not want to destabilise what was happening in Copenhagen?”
As I wrote last week, more telling than even the IPCC’s bizarre Himalayan error has been Pachauri’s instinctive reaction to deny and abuse those pointing out such mistakes.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/pachauri_lied_about_himalayan_warning#66326

Roger Knights
February 11, 2010 3:58 pm

PS: Don’t forget that the IPCC not only printed the wrong date, but backed it up by rating the likelihood of the glaciers disappearing as “very high”—i.e., more than 90 per cent.
Further, although all the experts except Kaser failed to try to get this corrected afterwards (too good a story to spoil?), this was not something that others overlooked:

that error has been regurgitated ad nauseam. Although Professor Cogley did not notice it, when the 2007 IPCC report was published, the 2035 date was dutifully reported by newspapers all over the world, and became the subject of much Jeffrey Simpson-style brow-knitting.
http://www.nationalpost.com/related/links/story.html?id=2461595&p=2
…………….
The 2035 date was an alarming, attention-grabbing finding — and many journalists, including Stephan Faris last year in Foreign Policy, cited it as evidence that global warming is an urgent crisis.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/09/inside_the_climate_bunker?page=full

Incidentally, the passage above continues with some interesting background material:

But, after the Indian government released its own report with conflicting glacier-melt data last fall, glacier scientists went back to the IPCC report and began to raise questions about the 2035 date. The chatter among experts was picked up in Science magazine last year, before spilling into the mainstream media ….

Roger Knights
February 11, 2010 4:17 pm

PPS: Here is a piece of a letter to the London Times. It contradicts Wakefield’s proxy claim that the IPCC made a good-faith error:

Sir, Dr Vicky Pope’s defence of the robustness of “the science” of climate change is too comprehensive (Commentary, Jan 28).
………………
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s “mistakes” that Dr Pope refers to are no ordinary errors. They show a deliberate disregard for the principles of scientific objectivity. The IPCC had every reason to know that its account of the Himalayan glacier melting was misleading, just as it had every reason to know that its predictions of hurricane frequency and intensity were both unsubstantiated and implausible.
Lord Leach of Fairford
London EC3

Here’s another comment, on dot.earth, that indicates the great usefulness this 2035 “error” had for the alarmist cause:

Barry Youngerman
The big question has always been, is the danger so immediate that we must “do something right now.” For me, that bogus 2035 date is not a minor matter; it gets to the heart of the issue.

And here’s a WUWT comment that’s another indication that it was “no accident” that the IPCC made the 2035 “error”:

ScientistForTruth (15:15:06) :
I demonstrate conclusively that the scientific community knew about these Glaciergate errors by their being exposed in a peer-reviewed journal in 2005, which was essentially the substance of a chapter from a book published in 2004 by an authority on the Himalayas. Syed Hasnain’s pronouncements are shown to be myths, and worse. The paper appeared in Himalayan Journal of Sciences, entitled
“Himalayan misconceptions and distortions: What are the facts? Himalayan Delusions: Who’s kidding who and why — Science at the service of media, politics and the development agencies.”
In light of that, I find it almost certain that Pachauri and a lot of others knew that these were lies years before AR4 was published.
http://buythetruth.wordpress.com/2010/01/26/un-ipcc-rotting-from-the-head-down

Roger Knights
February 11, 2010 4:29 pm

PPPS: Here’s more background info., from an earlier WUWTer:

R.S.Brown (00:54:37) :
Anthony,
Mr. Rajendra Pachauri was dumping on a paper that utilized data drawn from numerous University, College Departmental studies, Institute reports, and colloquiums done over the years. There are 18 citations toward the end, most of them peer-reviewed (but not by the IPCC “Team”) and written by the folks who have been studying the Himalayan glaciers up close and personally for years.
Here’s the difficult-to-find link to the Government of India’s
Ministry of Environment and Forests Discussion Paper,
“Himalayan Glaciers – A State-of-Art Review of Glacial Studies, Glacial Retreat and Climate Change” edited by V.K.Raina, the former Deputy Director of the Geological Survey of India:
http://moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/MoEF%20Discussion%20Paper%20_him.pdf
Raga on. \ / Ray Brown

More criticism of the good-faith-error defense:

Economic Times, India: IPCC imperialism on Indian glaciers
by Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar
It speaks volumes for the huge biases within IPCC that it took two years for this hoax to be exposed. Any hoax opposing the global warming thesis would be exposed in ten seconds flat. The IPCC is willing to swallow unexamined what it finds convenient, while raising a thousand technical objections to anything inconvenient. This is religious crusading, not objective science. The tactics being used to discredit and destroy heretics is reminiscent of the Spanish Inquisition.
The Indian panel, headed by V K Raina, looked at 150 years of data gathered by the Geological Survey of India from 25 Himalayan glaciers. It was the first comprehensive study of the region. It concluded that while Himalayan glaciers had long been retreating, there was no recent acceleration of the trend, and nothing to suggest that the glaciers would disappear. In short, the IPCC had perpetrated an alarmist hoax without scientific foundation.
…..
Raina said that the mistake made by western scientists “was to apply the rate of glacial loss from other parts of the world to the Himalayas… In the United States the highest glaciers in Alaska are still below the lowest level of Himalayan glaciers. Our 9,500 glaciers are located at very high altitudes. It is a completely different system.”
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/columnists/swaminathan-s-a-aiyar/IPCC-imperialism-on-Indian-glaciers/articleshow/5478293.cms

Wakefield Tolbert
February 11, 2010 8:14 pm

Interesting liks, all.
I plan to especially save the one from Roger Pielke Jr.