Both WUWT and Climate Audit had posts regarding the ridiculous WaPo story about snowfall being a result of climate change.
This is a follow up to those posts done by guest contributor Steven Goddard.
One of the NWF claims about global warming is that snow in the Colorado mountains is diminishing and has become very erratic, as seen in the NWF graphic at left.
In this article I will show that the claim is incorrect – Colorado snowfall has been generally increasing for the last hundred years and that year over year variability has always been extremely high.
Fortunately, there are excellent long term records of snowfall available from NOAA’s Western Regional Climate Center. I chose the Crested Butte, Colorado station because it is centrally located in the mountains (so is representative of a wide region) and has the most complete and continuous snow record of every month for the past 100 years. I have randomly sampled quite a few other stations in Colorado. None seem to have as a complete a record as Crested Butte, and the pattern described for Crested Butte seems to be fairly consistent in the mountainous regions of the state.
Below are graphs showing annual and monthly snowfall totals (in inches) for Crested Butte since 1909. The trend lines were generated using Google Spreadsheet’s linest() function. Note that every month is trending upwards in snowfall and the standard deviation is very high. Also note that there were several very dry years early in the 20th century with very little snow – and the last few decades have seen more consistent snowfall. Since 1981, every year has received more than 100 inches of snow. Prior to 1930, it was not uncommon to have snow years with less than 100 inches of snow. Prior to 1930, the average annual snowfall was 177 inches. Since 1930, the average annual snowfall has been 200 inches – a 10% increase.
Note – the raw data is incorrect for 1910, 1919, and 1924 due to a significant number of missing measurements, so I substituted a calculated annual value based on the trend line. This probably overestimates the snowfall for 1919 and 1924, and is thus conservative.
Click images below for full-sized ones.
Standard deviation = 67 Mean = 195 Trend = +7.7 inches per decade
Mean = 23.4 Standard Deviation = 15.1
Standard deviation = 25.9 Mean = 33.5
Standard deviation = 27.9 Mean = 38.4
Standard deviation = 19.3 Mean = 33.5
Standard deviation = 18.2 Mean = 31.0
Standard deviation = 13.1 Mean = 16.9
In summary, snowfall is increasing annually and we see upward trends in the months of “snowfall season” in Colorado. Year over year variability has always been very high and may actually be lower in recent years. And, the Colorado mountains no longer have extremely low snow years like they did 80 years ago. By the data, it seems the NWF claims are unfounded.
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Having spent a lot of time in the mountains in all 4 seasons, it is very erratic and always has been. What is with these clowns? Stringing a lot of anecdotes together doesn’t generate data. The plural of anecdote is not data.
If they wanted to try to be more honest, they would greatly increase the number of ski reports in their system.
Intuitively it seems like increased high mountain snowfall would be consistent with warming SST. More evaporation at sea surface, more precipitation at higher/cooler altitudes. The point that the NWF is wrong remains valid, but it seems to me like they had it backward to start with.
“the raw data is incorrect for 1910, 1919, and 1924 due to a significant number of missing measurements, so I substituted”
The data analysis would seem to be insensitive to the absence of data for those years. The practice of infilling everywhere leads to the long discussions over whether the appropriate method of infilling, and determining levels of autocorrelation, etc.
The simple: “Bad Data, dropped” approach should work fine – the only change being the discontinuity in the line chart. A scatter plot wouldn’t have that issue if that’s a concern.
Apologies if this seems overly persnickety, the infilling approaches throughout the surface records have me a little irked at its overuse.
Well, who are you going to believe? The NWF or your lying eyes? Their claims, or hard data?
(Looks at funding appeal from NWF that came in the mail. Shoves into recycling bin.)
Looking at the annual detail, especially at the minimums (minima?), it seems like there was increase from 1910 through 1994, and snowfall may be againn in decline since 1994. Measured SST has only been in decline since about 2005. Hmm. Is minimum snowfall a leading indicator? Lets have some input from more knowledgable people.
From the NWF website
“Oddball winter weather is yet another sign of how uncontrolled carbon pollution amounts to an unchecked experiment on people and nature,” said Dr. Amanda Staudt, climate scientist, National Wildlife Federation. …”
Wow, another scientist’s reputation circling the drain.
I track snow fall and “snow depth days” (the sum of snow depths over the season) at http://wermenh.com/sdd/index.html for several locations around New England. From the relatively little data I have, it’s clear that both metrics are hugely variable and data for individual seasons are remarkable but say nothing about trends.
05/06 was light for me in Penacook NH (just north of Concord), the next year broke many records for me and for the NWS. This year (not posted) is likely going to be light with the storm track well south of here. Like today, and like the post-Copenhagen storm that welcomed the President home.
Snowfall measurements are also questionable and what’s done now is likely not what was done 80 years ago. Snow depth water content measurements are likely much more reliable.
One good long term reference point in New England is the Mt Mansfield snow stake in Stowe VT, there’s an interactive web site that has its data back to 1954. Seee http://www.uvm.edu/skivt-l/?Page=.%2Fmansel.php3&dir=. If you enable the “NEW! Generate bar graphs of seasonal totals” it plots totals for each year which are just as variable as at Crested Butte.
1988 is interesting – it has the least snowfall, but the snow depth remained above average. That might have been a cold year, I don’t recall.
A few years ago there were several stories about how skiing was doomed here thanks to warming. November was a warm month here and ski areas opened late. Somewhat to my surprise I don’t think I heard a single story here blaming it on global warming. It may be people were just thankful it wasn’t snowy like 06/07. A lot of us had run out of places to put snow by the end of December that season!
Murray,
Climate models forecast less snow for Colorado, not more snow. University of Colorado professor Mark Williams issued this doom and gloom prediction in the middle of one of the best ski seasons on record.
http://www.aspendailynews.com/section/home/131044
Be prepared for a major round of climate alarmism for the 2010 Olympics here in Vancouver. We have had an extremely warm January, with high freezing levels. Most of the snow at the local mountain that will host the freestyle skiing events has melted. They are hauling snow by truck and helicopter to get the runs ready. The cause has been El Nino conditions, but of course, global warming will get the major billing. NBC is already setting up for the Today show at a neighboring mountain, where the brown patches are larger than the white.
Well done. Unfortunately, if I’m interpreting your post and NWF claims correctly, I don’t think NWF is making the claim you attribute to them. They say something like spring snow pack was 50% below normal in 2007 and 80% above normal in 2008.
The data is still valuable. It shows yet again that nothing is really going on that is beyond what might be expected due to natural variability.
Murray,
You probably should reread the first article in this series:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/28/nwfs-winter-weather-wackiness/#more-15810
NCDC snow report from the winter of 2007-2008 Numerous ski resorts in the West reported record breaking snowfall this year, as did parts of northern Maine. Caribou, Maine received 197.8 inches (502 cm) of snowfall this winter, shattering the previous record of 181.1 inches (460 cm).
Mt. Crested Butte, Colorado received 418 inches (1061 cm) during the 2007-08 winter, breaking the previous record of 415 inches (1054 cm) from 1979-1980. Even Spokane, Washington was the second-snowiest on record with 89.5 inches (227 cm), four inches (10 cm) short of the previous record from 1949-1950. The map to the right depicts the snowpack levels in many Rocky Mountain basins on May 1, 2008, illustrating a residual near to above average snow cover over much of the Rockies and Cascades in the western U.S. Thirty-two Snowtel locations reported record snow water equivalent records by the end of April.
NCDC snow report from the winter of 2008-2009
Across North America, snow cover for the 2008-09 winter was above average, with the 12th largest extent since satellite records began in 1967.
Murray (09:06:37) :
“Intuitively it seems like increased high mountain snowfall would be consistent with warming SST”
Murry, my intuition tells me that our “climate” is not that sensitive, and a one degree linear change would not have any profound effects.
If it did, the normal up and down swings, which are much more, would have disastrous effects.
@ur momisugly Murray (09:13:03)
Colorado suffered a drought lasting about 7 years. It largely ended a couple of years ago. The southwestern part of the state was slower to recover but appears to be back on track. The Wolf Creek Pass ski area is reporting a 114 inch base. That’s in line with the norm before the drought.
My mistake. I went back to part 1 and found the following
I live in South Colorado mountains (San Juan), and we are having a record snowfall this winter. A little avalanche just dropped from the roof of my house with terrible noise, and ruined two sturdy metal fence links of the dog kennel in the backyard. Luckily, dogs were inside at that moment. This year the snow cover never melted from November until end of January — first time in my memory (since 1991). Our driveway, cleared three times this year by our neighbor who has a powerful tractor with a snow shovel, resembles a shady tunnel between two snow walls.
Last year was very snowy, also. During the three or four drought years (end of 1990s and early 2000s) there was much less snow around, and it didn’t stay long on the ground. Before, during the first half of the 1990s, there was almost as much snow as now — I remember how a similar “roof avalanche” destroyed my bloody expensive aluminum ping-pong table: smashed it as if it were a paper bag.
Any claim that Colorado has less snow now than a decade before would contradict obvious factual observations.
No doubt, there will be a claim of cherry picking data for this article, despite it being the most complete and longest snow record in the state.
I agree with Alan S. Blue — DO NOT INFILL TO REPLACE MISSING DATA. No matter how acurate your method is it is still NOT the original data and it provides amo for the greennies to cast doubt on the rest of your research.
Stil, NWF, WWF, GreenPeace GIGO AGW propaganda reports are all over the newspapers and tv.
It gives “Freedom of Press” and “Quality Media” a whole other meaning.
Boy, am I glad we have the Internet!
That fits well with the diminishing global absolute humidity. The planet is cooling = more precipitation = smaller absolute humidity.
Let that be a kick in their “crested Butte”
The former WA State Climatologist, Phil Mote, produced a series of reports to the Governor of the state which claimed a significant drop in snow pack in the latter half of the 20th century.
Mote’s study was used by the Governor to create a panic over water supplies. It came out later that the Mote had cut off the data at a time of unusually high snowfall in the early 1950’s, thus creating an artificial downward trend. When data from 1930’s and 1940’s were added to the analysis the trend disappeared giving a flat trend.
Rather than own up to the cherry picking, Mote had the person who publicized the “trick” fired (he was the Deputy State Climatologist). Another expert, Cliff Mass of the UW had his reputation trashed.
The Governor ultimately ignored the truth. Phil Mote is now the State Climatologist of Oregon (after their Governor fired the previous one for not following the party line on AGW).
I did a quick stop at KNMI and plucked off the NCDC precipitation anomalies for 35N-45N, 115W-105W, approximating the coordinates of the Rockies, from Jan 1900 to Dec 2009. They didn’t have a long-term snow dataset.
http://i46.tinypic.com/30ihzys.png
You can’t miss the El Nino events.
MattN wrote (09:35:25):
No doubt, there will be a claim of cherry picking data for this article, despite it being the most complete and longest snow record in the state.
———————————————————-
The cherry picking was done by NWF. If you look at the blockquote I posted at 9:32 and then check the annual Crested Butte Annual Snowfall graph above, you will see that 1979 had the highest annual snowfall ever.
More weather is not climate: Vancouver is trucking in snow for the Olympics, while one of Arizona’s ski areas, Sunrise Ski Resort, was closed last week for 3 days due to – too much snow (and power outage caused by – too much snow). 96 inches of snow fell between Tuesday and Friday of last week – and more has fallen since.
In the final analysis of the proof or lack thereof of global warming, the snowpack levels at Crested Butte Colorado mean nothing. January 2010 will go down as the warmest global temps on record…and unless there is a major volcanic eruption this year, 2010 will most likely be the warmest year on record. And by the way, Increased snowfall is one of the initial effects of Global Warming (i.e. more heat = more evaporation), before the temperatures go up so much as to turn that snow to rain…