Climategate: The Mosher Timeline

Now that we all have time to take a breath from the whirlwind of Climategate, Copenhagen, and the Christmas/New Year holiday, Steve McIntyre has written up a timeline on how the Climategate emails came to be public knowledge on the climate blogs.

Image: nixieclock.net - click for details

Titled The Mosher Timeline, for our well known and frequent commenter Steven Mosher, it ties all of the blogs together that received the Russian FTP server link to the FOIA2009.zip file as a comment from the person(s) who leaked the file.

There are familiar but disassociated bits of knowledge tied together with new information to create a complete picture.

It is well worth the read, here.

For those who didn’t know, our own Charles The Moderator figured greatly in this timeline, props to him.

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105 thoughts on “Climategate: The Mosher Timeline

  1. “And you get to see what they really say behind the curtain.. you get to see how they “shape” the news, how they struggled between telling the truth and making policy makers happy.”

    I just grabbed this quote from a CA reader, and thought it appropriate. Exposing how the elite manipulate the news we read and hear is part of the cleansing of Climategate. Power, concentrated in the hands of so few, with no oversight or balancing countermand – is a danger to the public it purportedly serves. The Climategate emails confirm that a very small band of like-minded fanatics have an ability to manipulate public perception. This used to pass muster a hundred years ago. Today, however, is a different world. We have access to the underlying knowledge. And when you pervert that knowledge – we can see it.

    What remains is for the perpetraitors of the climate change debacle to come forward and confess their wrongs. Only then will the air clear and progress toward honest science begin.

  2. Whomever Deepthroat was/is, that email timeline was a lot of work. There is no way a hacker could get into CRU and out within a short time and come up with the flow that is depicted in the emails.
    It came from the inside, for it had to be someone very familiar with all the data and email exchanges.
    So, what type of person on the inside could it be?
    Disgruntled employee, demeaned cohort, adminstrator, or even someone who was a plant. But, whomever it was spent a good amount of time there, and knew who the players were and how they did busienss, where to find things.
    Deepthroat could even be a CRU dean or board member, if they have those over there. A high-up intelligence agency in the US or UK could have also been looking into the doings that so much money and trading was being based upon wanted to know what the real risks were. Those data-mining taps supposedly at key nodes in the Internet would have a mountain of things to nail the CRU bad boys with.
    If on the upper levels that would perch over or monitor CRU crew doings, we may never know.

  3. Between the story at the Big Journalism site and the timeline presented at CA, it makes the background of Climategate even more fascinating, knowing all that went into the final release of all those OMG! moments.

  4. This is great stuff! Mosher is a key element in this, & may even know who the leak is!

    OT but interesting as part of the general malaise from the BBC. Last night on BBC 1’s magazine show “The One Show”, Historian Dan Snow (honest) did a little piece linked to the current cold spell reciting much colder times in the “Little Ice Age” 400 years ago. Of course this was limited to have affected only “part” of Europe at the time, but nevertheless, it’s a step in the right direction. No explanation as to why etc. Just can’t work out what the BBC is playing at, at the moment. It is so duplicitous. Are they really just hedging their bets?

  5. Heavily OT, but I need a help from an English native. I am now proofreading my article on the Climategate, to be published in mid-February, in Japanese language, where the proper names should be written, in letters quite strange to you folks, in accordance to their pronunciation. One name I’m not certain about is “Saiers”. Is its pronunciation close to that of “say” + “-ers”, or ?
    Thanks.

  6. Interesting so that is where Mosher got the CD he mentions. Charles gave it to him after checking out a held comment. Very good and very smart to research the claims before jumping in and saying anything.

  7. I mentioned this in the Climate Audit but since WUWT was involved it is worth asking here as well.

    WUWT crossposted several pieces by Steve McIntyre regarding a mole within the CRU.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/26/deep-cool-the-mole-within-hadley-cru/
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/28/hadley-cru-discovers-the-mole/
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/08/01/publicly-available-data-being-purged-at-uks-hadley-climate-center/

    I note that Anthony Watts claimed to know the identity of the mole. Are the leaks back in July related to the Climategate leak in anyway? I have been quite surprised that there has not been any reference to the leaks from the CRU back in July, even if they are not related.

    REPLY: You missed the joke, the “mole” was CRU’s own incompetence, they left the file out in the open. The mole was whoever left it there. Steve McIntyre can confirm this, as can Steve Mosher. We were all just having a bit of fun with CRU until they figured out their own blunder, and when they did, they started erasing all sorts of public data on the FTP server

    http://climateaudit.org/2009/07/31/the-cru-data-purge-continues/

    – Anthony

  8. No Need to Publish.

    Note to monitors. You have introduced a great number of stories tonight. They arrive smoothly without delays or interruption. Hats off to your excellent work to keep WUWT running smoothly.

    You are a part of something momentous as far as earth is concerned. We are grateful for your efforts.

  9. Here’s a good late night George Noory story that just happened to me. I just figured this out. The good part is at the bottom where the screen shot link is. Here’s where the story originated, with this comment response that led me to figured it out. My language is a little bad, and if the moderator wants to delete it, I’ll understand.

    http://www.dailypaul.com/node/120690

    Time to Pop the Safety Bubble
    ViewEdit
    Submitted by michaelwise on Wed, 01/06/2010 – 20:19
    in Daily Paul Liberty Forum
    The MSM is trying to whip everyone into a massive hysterical frenzy over underwear and safety. Keep me safe, keep me safe, keep me safe. [snip] If I have anymore mainstream media and government safety shoved up my [butt], I’ll be walking like a pogo stick.

    I don’t want to be kept safer by my government. I don’t like the brand of safety my government is dishing out to me. I am safe enough for my liking. My odds of being killed on the highway by someone text messaging is much greater than being killed by a foreign terrorist. I have a better chance of hitting the lottery than being killed by a terrorist.

    The few people and their friends that have been directly touched by terrorist activity have no right to go control freak on me and dictate more inconvenience and cost to me. I’ll take my chances with what little so called terrorism there is in my country and abroad. I like my odds.

    I’m kept plenty safe in my country by my nuclear powered submarine fleet with Poseidon missiles. I’m kept plenty safe with my nuclear powered aircraft carrier fleets. I’m kept plenty safe with my air force fleets and their tomahawk and cruise missiles. I’m kept plenty safe with my intercontinental ballistic missile systems. I’m kept plenty safe with my patriot missile systems. I’m kept plenty safe with my spy satellite systems. I’m kept plenty safe with my 700 military bases in 130 countries. I’m kept plenty safe with all the police forces in my country.

    If I let them try to make me any safer, they may as well put a strait jacket on me. [snip] the MSM and the control freaks brand of safety. [snip] the TSA and homeland security’s brand of safety. They can shove their brand of excessive safety up their own [butts].

    Time to Pop the Safety Bubble.

    Safety dance
    Submitted by meekandmild on Tue, 01/12/2010 – 21:16.

    This video is metaphorical. We all keep pursuing safety while metaphorically speaking, keep dancing together, but we can never reach the goal of total safety, and we keep dancing for it. The question is Why? Why bother? The best we can do is follow the blueprint. Just follow the Constitution and accept it. The results aren’t so bad.

    Here’s a screen shot I took of the last seconds of the video. It shows a fighter bomber in one frame.

  10. Do you think that in the future people will ask ‘Where were you when Climategate broke ?’

    For my part, I was trying to edit a video for a steel company with my iPhone in one hand and my mind definitely not on the job !

    I had a strange feeling of expectation and excitement, a bit like I felt as a kid on Christmas Day.

    Blogs like WUWT, CA, tAV and the Blackboard are the news media now.

  11. TBR.cc: NZ scientist at centre of Pachauri allegations refuses to talk

    http://briefingroom.typepad.com/the_briefing_room/2010/01/nz-scientist-at-centre-of-pachauri-allegations-refuses-to-talk.html

    NZ scientist at centre of Pachauri allegations refuses to talk.
    The New Zealand climate scientist named in a British news article headlined “Pachauri: Money Laundering?”, is today refusing to talk to the news media about the allegations. Investigator Richard North writes at Eureferendum:
    ‘A British government department, DEFRA, has paid taxpayers’ money to a British University which in turn paid it to the British subsidiary of an Indian research organisation, which in turn seems to have paid it to a New Zealand university scientist so that he could work for an international organisation based in Geneva – the IPCC.’
    Welcome to the bizarre world of climate change politics, where nothing is what it seems and governments indulge in behaviour which, in other circumstances, would look very much like money laundering. But, bizarre though it might appear, this is only half the story. The reality is even more convoluted – the word “bizarre” doesn’t even begin to describe it.
    The tale emerges from our trail of the millions salted away by climate change “hero” Rajendra Pachauri, and the role of TERI Europe, his outpost of Empire in London. When we were first alerted to this payment from DEFRA of £30,417 by one of our forum members at the beginning of the month, we found it had been paid to Cambridge University, “to provide funding to TERI Europe to cover salary and travel cost of the head of unit responsible to produce a Synthesis Report of the IPCC AR4.” Given that the only link (we thought) between TERI and the IPCC was Dr R K Pachauri, we naturally assumed that the money was intended for the good doctor. We were wrong. That he was paid this money is denied by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) – which has taken over some duties from DEFRA. The press office at DECC, however, has been unable (so far) to tell us to whom the money was paid. That information came from none other than Mrs Robins, aka Ritu Kumar, director and company secretary of TERI Europe. In response to our questions, she informs us that the money went to Dr Andrew Reisinger (pictured), whom she tells us, is currently a senior fellow at the New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute. Andy, as he likes to be known, is a figure of some importance in the “climate community”. As head of the Technical Support Unit for the synthesis report group of the IPCC, he was responsible to his “core group” co-author Rajendra Pachauri for co-ordinating the drafting of the “synthesis report” to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The importance of this synthesis report cannot be overstated…(read more here) Investigate magazine contacted Andy Reisinger on his mobile phone this afternoon, NZ time. He had not heard of the scandal breaking over payments made to him: “I haven’t heard anything, but actually I’m on parental leave until February 8 –”
    It’s looking at TERI which you have some links to
    “Well, I mean, that goes back to when I was working for the IPCC, and as I say I’m currently on parental leave and I’m actually not terribly interested in the story”
    But they’re accusing the set up of being basically a money-laundering route to effectively pay you under the table, what’s your response to that?
    “I don’t have a response to it because I’m currently on parental leave.”
    It doesn’t bug you, doesn’t concern you?
    “No, it only bugs me that you called me while I was on parental leave”.
    Reisinger hung up on Investigate.
    Guess it’ll be another chapter in the upcoming new edition of Air Con

  12. In my view, the most contentious part of the timeline has always been the very first event related to the zip file being uploaded to Real Climate. I admit I don’t post very often to RC, but I don’t recall there being a file upload option. Assuming there is not such an option, this implies that our whistle blower must have had login credentials to the RC server (via FTP, SSH, etc). Has this point ever been clarified to anyone’s satisfaction?

    Even assuming that a public upload option exists, it seems very odd to me that someone would upload such a large file over a public interface on RC’s web site. Furthermore, the person uploading the file must have anticipated that the file would be uploaded successfully and that it would be made publicly downloadable. This seems highly implausible as it would imply that that the person was woefully ignorant of the well known RC policy of tightly controlling and censoring all user commentary and input (which would defeat the purpose of uploading a rather large and unwieldy file of highly sensitive data).

    Then there was this curious statement from an official CRU press release on December 3rd: “On Tuesday November 17, a substantial file including over 1000 emails either sent from or sent to members of the Climatic Research Unit (‘CRU’) at the University of East Anglia, was downloaded on the RealClimate website, together with meteorological station data used for research by CRU into the rate of the Earth’s warming, particularly over the past 150 years, and other material.” This statement makes it clear that the file existed on the RC server, that it was publicly downloadable, and that someone had downloaded it. This implies that the security breach originated on Real Climate’s site.

    How could any person have placed such a large file on the RC servers without having the proper credentials? If he had an account then would he not be easily traceable?

    Link to UEA press release mentioned: http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/2009/dec/CRUreview

  13. Steve is an aerospace engineer.

    ======

    I may have been one of the first people to contact the US Senate on the Climate Gate Issue:

    http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2009/11/some-verification-of-hadley-cru-files.html

    and

    http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/real-files-or-fake/

    M. Simon (Comment#23855) November 20th, 2009 at 1:16 am

    I have already done a couple of posts on this and sent some of the details to my Senate Contact.

    True or false (I’m inclined to true) this is going to put a lot of ink in the water and destroy a forest or two.

    Also I link back to here.

    That would have been on the night of the 19th as I keep GMT.

    The exact time I contacted the Senate (Republican contact):

    Thursday, November 19, 2009 11:41 PM Central Time

  14. Boudu (00:42:39) :

    Do you think that in the future people will ask ‘Where were you when Climategate broke ?

    I was glued to WUWT, as usual, and managed to post the first comment. I said that the cat was out of the bag and into the box. I wish I’d thought of something wittier, like “The Uncovery of Global Warming” (a dig at the book, The Discovery of Global Warming).

  15. I get the feeling that more people than just Mosher know who the discloser of the files is (are). The readers here are only left to speculate. That’s a little irritating. I hope to find out someday soon.

  16. ” I note that Anthony Watts claimed to know the identity of the mole. Are the leaks back in July related to the Climategate leak in anyway? ”

    No as Anthony explains in his reply Steve McIntyre, Anthony and I were having fun with CRU. They had left a version of the data Mcintyre had requested in full view on an FTP site. All the while they are arguing that if this data was released to McIntyre that “international relations would be harmed” DANG, thats some pretty secret data there. temperature data that will harm international relations if its given to a researcher. What did jones do with this national security temperature data. he had it on his own personal webpage. DOH! So Mc got a copy. Others of us got copies just in case.. and then a “mole hunt” insued. In the End Dr. Jones was caught.

  17. P gosslin. SteveMc and charles and I have disclosed all we know. we have to live in uncertainty. I’d put the SD very tight around norwich.

    REPLY: That’s true, and I don’t know the identity either. All we know about the comment left at WUWT is that it came from an anonymous proxy server in Riyadh Saudi Arabia with a link to an FTP server in Russia. The trail stops there. – Anthony

  18. tokyoboy (23:10:10) :

    Heavily OT, but I need a help from an English native. I am now proofreading my article on the Climategate, to be published in mid-February, in Japanese language, where the proper names should be written, in letters quite strange to you folks, in accordance to their pronunciation. One name I’m not certain about is “Saiers”. Is its pronunciation close to that of “say” + “-ers”, or ?
    Thanks.

    For one thing, we would not say “the Climategate” but simply “Climategate” as it is a name, as we would say “David” or “Anna” instead of “the David” or “the Anna.” That would be different if the word was used to denote a specific object or thing, as in “the Climategate scandal” or “the Bush Doctrine” or “the Lewinsky affair .”

    Please note that on some things there may be a difference between American English speakers and British English speakers. Americans will say someone has “gone to the hospital” while Brits will say “gone to hospital,” for example.

    “Saiers” looks like it should be pronounced “say-ers,” as you said. But if it originally came from a non-English speaking country, perhaps France, it might be pronounced “saurs,” like in “dinosaurs.” However I, an American English speaker, would assume “say-ers” unless informed otherwise. When using a “Y” as a vowel, the switching of a “y” with an “i” for the same pronunciation can be done, as with “Yay” and “Yai.” “Sayers” is likely an alternate spelling of the original family name.

    Good luck on the article!

  19. “In my view, the most contentious part of the timeline has always been the very first event related to the zip file being uploaded to Real Climate. I admit I don’t post very often to RC, but I don’t recall there being a file upload option. Assuming there is not such an option, this implies that our whistle blower must have had login credentials to the RC server (via FTP, SSH, etc). Has this point ever been clarified to anyone’s satisfaction?”

    During september and october the mails were flying fast and furious between CRU and Gavin. One of the mails contains a password and login. I was gunna try it when I found that, but didnt. I theorized ( mc wrote about this) that RC may have comprimised themselves by this practice. In this time frame RC was trying to get somebody at CRU to help them counter steves stuff on Yamal. RC has not commented on this theory. FWIW.

  20. “Interesting so that is where Mosher got the CD he mentions. Charles gave it to him after checking out a held comment. Very good and very smart to research the claims before jumping in and saying anything.”

    We checked a lot of things in the file. names, dates, places, references to CA threads, addresses, timelines, I read mails to Mc, mails that he wrote that were captured in the files, dates of published articles.

  21. Martin Brumby (00:42:02) :

    Completely OT, sorry!

    But this looks as if it will be fun!

    http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/world-mainmenu-26/south-america-mainmenu-37/2724-bolivia-to-host-alternative-climate-conference

    That will be even more air miles for all the greenie useful idiots! I’m sure the BBC will be making their block booking right now

    Looks like WW3 just around the corner, either that or it’s just Developed World v Undeveloped World. We live in interesting times. Anyway, if Ugo Cheves from oil rich Venezuela (the only rich socialist country I know) & Robert Mogabe from oil poor Zimbabwe can turn up at Copenhagen & get what amounted to a standing ovation who knows what can happen in this crazy world in which we “all” unfortunately live! (Nothing personal against either of those kind, caring, compassionate, understanding, sympathetic, considerate, thoughtful blokes, I am sure they send money to their grey haired elderly mothers too!)

    Tokyoboy :-) I think you could be right about the pronunciation, although that spelling of Sayers is very unusual & I have never seen it before. Perhaps a better man (or woman) that I could help out!

  22. steven mosher (01:35:24) :
    DANG, thats some pretty secret data there. temperature data that will harm international relations if its given to a researcher.

    Did Jones say that international relations would be harmed or did he say that relations between WMOs would be harmed and data may not be passed so freely?

  23. To tokyoboy

    Regarding the name “Saiers”. Is its pronunciation close to that of “say” + “-ers”, or ?

    I’m not familiar with the name but I would probably pronounce it that way.

  24. Off-topic, but you might like to know the leading headline in the BBC’s rolling marquee weather headlines.

    On a day when another couple of inches of snow is falling across the SE of the UK, disrupting transport yet again, and when we have had salt/grit rationing announced, the BBC ran with:

    “Melbourne bakes in warmest night for a century”

    So global warming is still alive? The bias is becoming so counterproductive. Perhaps they’re employing Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf? You may know him better as ‘Comical Ali’….

  25. tokyoboy (23:10:10) :
    Heavily OT, but I need a help from an English native. I am now proofreading my article on the Climategate, to be published in mid-February, in Japanese language, where the proper names should be written, in letters quite strange to you folks, in accordance to their pronunciation. One name I’m not certain about is “Saiers”. Is its pronunciation close to that of “say” + “-ers”, or ?
    Thanks.

    Your, “say” + “-ers”, is the way I would pronounce the name.

  26. Whoever released these documents did so in the hope or knowledge that such a revellation would expose AGW as an elaborate scam/hoax. At this point it seems that the release has not had the desired result. The Chinese and Indian reaction at Copenhagen may have been influenced by the disclosure but it wasn’t mentioned as a factor. The MSM generally have tried to ignore both the release and the ramifications of the content. Governments, particularly those with a strong AGW agenda, are still in denial. Of interest is the partial collapse of the Voluntry Carbon Trading market which indicates that the money men are starting to have doubts. In a market economy that is quite revealing and portents a lack of faith in Cap and Trade not necessarily the loss of faith in the “science”.

    My question is “do you honestly think that Climategate will seal the fate of AGW?”

  27. To become a Saint requires 2 miracles. Nov 17 2009 at 5.24 blog time was one.

    I’d regard Miracle Two as widespread reporting by the MSM.

  28. Steven, thanks for the info. I just grep’d through the emails for various potential phrases that might match the email you mentioned (e.g., login, password, pw, realclimate, RC, yamal, etc) and so far I haven’t located any emails from Sept/Oct of 2009 that contain any explicit or obvious login credentials. Perhaps you could provide a file name for the email in question? I’d like to see the user name that was mentioned and the context because it could provide additional information about potential audit trails.

    Also, related to my last comment, it just occurred to me that there is another inconsistency with the RealClimate story that is now bothering me. On or around December 1st, the media reported that police were “working with a team from Scotland Yard amid speculation that hackers also tried to break into a second climate institution in Canada.” The Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis would neither confirm nor deny that a hack attempt had taken place (see link below). In any event, this is curious because I’m not aware of any such joining of forces (between Scotland Yard and the Norwich Police) ever being mentioned in the media in relation to the investigation of the alleged RC server hack (which is clearly related to the CRU hack but also separate and independent).

    It’s worth noting that realclimate.org appears to be hosted by a UK hosting provider called WebFaction.com. Hence, some might argue that the alleged RC security breach was a local UK issue and need not involve international police forces. However, WebFaction.com is in reality a web hosting reseller for the much larger Houston, Texas based megahosting company called ThePlanet.com. WebFaction.com is therefore bound by Texas laws and this is stated clearly on their web site under their legal terms of service. Applicable Texas laws would ostensibly include any investigations of a criminal nature. So what gives?

    Does anyone know if there was ever any mention in the media of the FBI being involved in the CRU case? If the RC server was implicated in the CRU investigation–and it *should* have been (based on the CRU statement that I noted previously)–then Scotland Yard must either be working with the FBI or the FBI must be investigating this independently. It’s possible that I’ve simply over analyzed these events but the facts seems clear, if not incongruous, and I felt obliged to mention these issues because they’re annoying.

    http://www.edp24.co.uk/content/edp24/news/story.aspx?brand=EDPOnline&category=News&tBrand=EDPOnline&tCategory=xDefault&itemid=NOED30%20Nov%202009%2017%3A02%3A26%3A850

  29. Moshpit,

    It was funny looking back over my timeline and I found I had contacted you in the early AM on the night of the 19/20th and told you what a bombshell I had found. And you never let on in your e-mail to me that you were at the center of it.

    You dog. :-)

  30. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/live_debate/article6986034.ece

    Off Topic! The London Times online are having a live debate titled thus:-

    “Surprise snow: just as the thaw begins, it starts to snow. Times weatherman explains why, live today at 12.15pm(GMT)”

    The subtitle is an open invite for some of the smarter kids on this block to ask tough questions…

    “The snow returned with a vengeance today on what is traditionally the chilliest day of the year – so are we out of the woods yet? Join Times weatherman Paul Simons today at 12.15 pm and pitch your questions on weather patterns, global warming and the forecast. “

  31. Steven, thanks for the info. I just grep’d through the files for various potential words that might match the email you mentioned (e.g., login, password, pw, realclimate, RC, yamal, etc) and so far I haven’t found any emails from Sept/Oct of 2009 that contain any explicit or obvious login credentials. Perhaps you could provide a file name for the email in question? I’d like to see the user name that was mentioned and the context because it could provide additional information about potential audit trails.

    Also, related to my last comment, it just occurred to me that there is another inconsistency with the RealClimate story that is now bothering me. On or around December 1st, the media reported that police were “working with a team from Scotland Yard amid speculation that hackers also tried to break into a second climate institution in Canada.” The Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis would neither confirm nor deny that a hack attempt had taken place (see link below). In any event, this is curious because I’m not aware of any such joining of forces (between Scotland Yard and the Norwich Police) ever being mentioned in the media in relation to the investigation of the alleged RC server hack (which is clearly related to the CRU hack but also separate and independent).

    It’s worth noting that realclimate.org appears to be hosted by a UK hosting provider called WebFaction.com. Hence, some might argue that the alleged RC security breach was a local UK issue and need not involve international police forces. However, WebFaction.com is in reality a web hosting reseller for the much larger Houston, Texas based megahosting company called ThePlanet.com. WebFaction.com is therefore bound by Texas laws and this is stated clearly on their web site under their legal terms of service. Applicable Texas laws would ostensibly include any investigations of a criminal nature. So what gives?

    Does anyone know if there was ever any mention in the media of the FBI being involved in the CRU case? If the RC server was implicated in the CRU investigation–and it *should* have been (based on the CRU statement that I noted previously)–then Scotland Yard must either be working with the FBI or the FBI must be investigating this independently. It’s possible that I’ve simply over analyzed these events but the facts seems clear, if not incongruous, and that is annoying.

    http://www.edp24.co.uk/content/edp24/news/story.aspx?brand=EDPOnline&category=News&tBrand=EDPOnline&tCategory=xDefault&itemid=NOED30%20Nov%202009%2017%3A02%3A26%3A850

  32. Alan the Brit (22:53:59) :

    OT but interesting as part of the general malaise from the BBC. Last night on BBC 1’s magazine show “The One Show”, Historian Dan Snow (honest) did a little piece linked to the current cold spell reciting much colder times in the “Little Ice Age” 400 years ago. Of course this was limited to have affected only “part” of Europe at the time, but nevertheless, it’s a step in the right direction. No explanation as to why etc. Just can’t work out what the BBC is playing at, at the moment. It is so duplicitous. Are they really just hedging their bets?

    I watched that report on the BBC’s One Show and I would suggest that they are trying to put across the new theme of “background warming still increasing” as in this winter is still warmer than we had in the UK in th LIA, therefore “proving” that it is getting warmer.

    Even Reuters carries a similar theme with this report:-

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE60B3TX20100112

    with John Hammond, a meteorologist at the UK Met Office saying

    “Colder winters become less likely because overall the background warming will reduce the severity of them, certainly for our part of the world.”

    So it’s not another LIA then….

    PS Great work to everyone involved in exposing to the COLD light of day the contents of the Climategate data.

  33. Steven, thanks for the info. I just grep’d through the files for various potential words that might match the email you mentioned (e.g., login, password, pw, realclimate, RC, yamal, etc) and so far I haven’t found any emails from Sept/Oct of 2009 that contain any explicit or obvious login credentials. Perhaps you could provide a file name for the email in question? I’d like to see the user name that was mentioned and the context because it could provide additional information about potential audit trails.

    Also, related to my last comment, it just occurred to me that there is another inconsistency with the RealClimate story that is now bothering me. On or around December 1st, the media reported that police were “working with a team from Scotland Yard amid speculation that hackers also tried to break into a second climate institution in Canada.” The Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis would neither confirm nor deny that a hack attempt had taken place (see link below). In any event, this is curious because I’m not aware of any such joining of forces (between Scotland Yard and the Norwich Police) ever being mentioned in the media in relation to the investigation of the alleged RC server hack (which is clearly related to the CRU hack but also separate and independent).

    It’s worth noting that realclimate.org appears to be hosted by a UK hosting provider called WebFaction.com. Hence, some might argue that the alleged RC security breach was a local UK issue and need not involve international police forces. However, WebFaction.com is in reality a web hosting reseller for the much larger Houston, Texas based megahosting company called ThePlanet.com. WebFaction.com is therefore bound by Texas laws and this is stated clearly on their web site under their legal terms of service. Applicable Texas laws would ostensibly include any investigations of a criminal nature. So what gives?

    Does anyone know if there was ever any mention in the media of the FBI being involved in the CRU case? If the RC server was implicated in the CRU investigation–and it should have been (based on the CRU statement that I noted previously)–then Scotland Yard must either be working with the FBI or the FBI must be investigating this independently. It’s possible that I’ve simply over analyzed these events but the facts seems clear, if not incongruous, and that is annoying.

    http://tinyurl.com/yaswkjo

  34. Thanks to all who are keeping the spotlight of public attention focused on the dirty climate-gate iceberg!

    Decades of filth will be exposed as this melts away.

    The modern scientific community eats well from the trough of public funds distributed by the politicians that make funding decisions on research funds.

    There is a long-term Democratic Representative from West Virginia that is Chair of the Appropriations Subcommittee for Science in the US House of Representatives. Alan Mollohan seems to be on unusually good terms with the climatologist who is President of the National Academy of Sciences, Ralph Ciscerone.

    Heat from your spotlight may even reveal some of the truths that NASA has hidden from the public since the 1969 Apollo Mission returned lunar samples for analysis.

    With kind regards,
    Oliver K. Manuel
    Former NASA PI for Apollo

  35. Just the reproduction of these timelines, thoughts (from key players) and resultant blog comments would make for a great book on the subject. I’ve been bouncing around the various sites listed and reading the follow-on comments and it reads like an international political/science thriller with many of the key people interacting in real time.

    When one considers the real magnitude of this subject ( control of the world via eco governance ) it deserves a book and a movie if it indeed plays out as a turning point on AGW – which it may…

  36. Maybe the reason the Warmists are always spewing charges of corruption and “on the take” at the Denialists/Realists is because they (the Warmists) are so very adept at it. Absolute pros, in fact.

    The same goes with their charges that Denialists/Realists are pitching bogus science while they themselves are the ultimate purveyors of truth. Well, we really know now who has been pitching bogus science and distorting truth beyond the breaking point–the Warmists.

    When a dinner guest blatently touts his honesty, always count the silverware.

  37. Heh, heh, … nixie tubes. Man, I haven seen those since the ’70s. Funny, the stupid stuff you can get nostalgic about.

    REPLY: I chose that, because it represented the state of computing about the time Watergate broke. Plus, I’m sure that Mosh has stared at more than a few nixie tubes in his career. – Anthony

  38. Climategate may be all the rage where you are but here in Arctic UK it is having no effect at all. In the media, parliament (or government), science journals it is as though it never happened. As instructed by the IPCC and EU our government has given the go ahead to construct massive wind farms miles offshore at a cost of £100 billion operating costs unknown. This unnecesssary impracticle scheme will make electric power so costly that most of us especially old age pensioners will probably freeze to death.

  39. OT
    Sorry for this but reported on the BBC website: 8 January 2010

    “The British medical journal the Lancet has urged China’s authorities to do more to tackle scientific fraud.”

    and

    Lancet May 13, 2009

    Climate change could be the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Effects on health of climate change will be felt by most populations in the next decades and put the lives and wellbeing of billions of people at increased risk.

    and I thought Mojib Latif said 2 or 3 decades of cooling while CRU were engaged in manipulation of data and witholding data. Would seomeon at the Lancet buy a drug from these guys or are their different standards?

  40. steven mosher (01:35:24) :
    “No as Anthony explains in his reply Steve McIntyre, Anthony and I were having fun with CRU. They had left a version of the data Mcintyre had requested in full view on an FTP site. All the while they are arguing that if this data was released to McIntyre that “international relations would be harmed” DANG, thats some pretty secret data there. temperature data that will harm international relations if its given to a researcher. What did jones do with this national security temperature data. he had it on his own personal webpage. DOH! So Mc got a copy. Others of us got copies just in case.. and then a “mole hunt” insued. In the End Dr. Jones was caught.”

    Thanks Steven (and Anthony) for your replies. I didn’t realise that you were joking about Phil Jones being the mole after he leaked some of his ‘sensitive’ data by mistake.

    Still, there may be some connection between the Climategate leak and the earlier inadvertant one. Indeed, none other than Charles The Moderator speculated nearly two months ago that climategate files may also have been released by mistake:

    I would like to offer a third possibility based on a bit of circumstantial evidence I noticed on the Web Saturday afternoon.

    There’s an old adage, never assume malice when stupidity or incompetence will explain it.

    A short time ago there was a previous leak of CRU data by an insider. In this case, Steve McIntyre acquired station data which he had been requesting for years, but someone inside CRU unofficially made the data available.

    In this case, many commentators had various guesses as to the motivation or identity of the disgruntled mole even proposing that perhaps a disgruntled William Connelly was the perpetrator.

    Of course it turned out the Phil Jones, director of CRU, himself had inadvertently left the data on an open FTP server.

    To repeat the basic premise of this theory.

    There’s an old adage, never assume malice when stupidity or incompetence will explain it.”
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/23/the-crutape-letters®-an-alternate-explanation/#more-13003

    BTW, Steven, I hear you have a book coming out on the Climategate leak, and that we may learn more about how the emails and computer codes fell into public domain in the next few days. Can’t wait to see how this saga evolves.

  41. Anthropogenic global warming -> Global warming -> CLimate change ->
    Background warming -> ?

    what’s next ?

  42. I confess I was puzzled about why these files had not shown up on WUWT.
    Now we know – and many thanks are due to all of you who spent so much time checking and re-checking the authenticity of these files.
    Because of this diligence none of the Team and none of their MSM lapdog were able to claim that these were just made up by the usual ‘denialist’ suspects.

    And its good to learn how Steve Mosher got that CD – that was something else which puzzled me, because the police would surely have wanted the envelope, to trace where it was posted from, look for fingerprints, even DNA …
    (Yeah, I know, I read too many thrillers.)

  43. C’mon, @Dodgy Geezer (02:33:43)
    There’s an obvious difference!

    A month sub zero in the UK / North America / Europe / China / Korea etc ?

    Just weather. No climate to see here. Move along!

    A hot night in Melbourne?

    GLOBAL WARMING!!! AAAAARGH!

    Worse than we thought!

    So far as the identity of he who took a leak at UEA / GISS / RC, I’ll bet anyone:-

    It wuz Jolly Jim Hansen wot dunnit!

  44. OT

    Looking at The Cryosphere Today site, the ice looks to be getting close to Iceland. Is it likely to freeze all the way across?

    Would make an interesting story!

    DavidS

  45. Further down in the thread “Open Letter On Climate Legislation” on “the Air Vent”, there was another posting at slot 19, FOIA data mirror said:- http://www.megaupload.com/?d=XD050VKY. Time stamp was:- November 20, 2009 at 12:59 am (November 19 + 59 min.
    Who made that post ??

  46. Off topic. Website is blocked in China at the moment. Using vpn to contact. Was ok earlier. Will try tomorrow

  47. I’m heartbroken! If ever there was a thread that deserve to be hijacked, it’s this one. I almost bought a Nixie tube kit a few years ago, but the fellow who had been making them messed up a parts order and decided not to fix it (it may have been for the Russian Nixie knock-offs, they made them a lot longer than the Americans did).

    I bought from the New Hampshire State surplus store a piece of lab equipment with Nixies, but the power supply doesn’t work and I spend too much time on WUWT to open it, let alone fix/scavenge/whatever.

    If you Google nixie clock, it will confidently report 231,000 hits. (However, trying to start at 980 yields “781 – 793 of about 231,000 for nixie clock.”)

    Another neat neon display was the dekatron, something where one of several electrodes in a circular array would light and a pulse could make the the neon breakdown jump from one electrode to the next. Great for counters, and often used in things like geiger counters where the count rate might vary by several orders of magnitude.

    http://www.electricstuff.co.uk/count.html has some very good info.

    I’ve always hated the web page counters that emulate 7 segment LCD displays? Why emulate a lame compromise when you could use ordinary fonts? I guess part of it is to emphasize it’s a count (another is that hit counters usually work as small image files). A web page count from Nixie digits is much classier.

  48. Lawrie Ayres (02:49:35) :

    Whoever released these documents did so in the hope or knowledge that such a revelation would expose AGW as an elaborate scam/hoax.

    [snip]

    My question is “do you honestly think that Climategate will seal the fate of AGW?”

    No.  The data will do that.

    Einstein went to his grave not accepting quantum mechanics. Planck went to his grave never really accepting that energy was quantized.  And these are the founding fathers. 

    Those current proponents of AGW that are committed to science, that is, who go where the data leads them, may eventually get there.  Those that are committed to the leftest agenda, never.  There are too many so-called scientist who can’t tell the difference between politics and science.  As the e-mails show, to them, science is simply a means to political ends.

     Mike Ramsey

  49. Oops – closed with </a>…

    If you Google nixie clock, it will confidently report 231,000 hits. (However, trying to start at 980 yields “781 – 793 of about 231,000 for nixie clock.”)

  50. Still off topic. A number of other sites (like minded) are blocked as well. Looks like someone in China doesn’t want anti-global warming promoted. Maybe the government or someone who thinks that the government would like this. China is an interesting funny place.

  51. R Stevenson (04:30:04) :
    …our government has given the go ahead to construct massive wind farms miles offshore at a cost of £100 billion operating costs unknown.

    Launch the animal rights activists — tell them the wind farms will kill off thousands of species of seabirds.

    Oddly enough, that’s the one thing Teddy Kennedy was good for — preventing people from building wind farms where they’d interfere with his pristine view of a blank ocean…

  52. @ Peter of Sydney (00:43:52) : This would make for a very interesting movie one day.

    Somehow I doubt Michael Moore will be directing it.

  53. Boudu (00:42:39) :

    Do you think that in the future people will ask ‘Where were you when Climategate broke ?’

    I first heard about it here at WUWT, and downloaded it quickly in part to make sure I had it before the file was purged and to check it on my Linux system for things that might be trojan horses and whatnot. My first post was to list the .pdf files, not quite understanding that the Email content would provide most of the early insights.

  54. Daniel H (03:19:34) :

    Steven, thanks for the info. I just grep’d through the emails for various potential phrases that might match the email you mentioned (e.g., login, password, pw, realclimate, RC, yamal, etc) and so far I haven’t located any emails from Sept/Oct of 2009 that contain any explicit or obvious login credentials.

    Email 1248785856.txt has a password, but not the one you’re looking for. It’s in mail copied to much of the team but is really between Jones and Mann for picking up a paper at UEA’s FTP site.

    > file is at [2]ftp.cru.uea.ac.uk
    > login anonymously with [self-snip, though I doubt it works any more] as pw
    > then go to people/philjones
    > and you should find santeretal2001.pdf

  55. To Tokyoboy:

    Yes, Say-ers would be correct. And knowing something of katakana-ization of English words and the lack of an “r” sound in Japanese, I predict that it will come out something like “say” – “ahs”.
    Apologies if someone has already replied. I am replying as I read postings.

    IanM

  56. Skeptic Tank (04:18:23) :

    Nostalgic about nixie tubes? Pulease! Don’t you remember the heat and the buzzing from the power supply? You might as well be nostalgic about 8 inch floppies and 64k of Ram and Winchester disks. Or getting coffee while waiting 30 minutes for a short program to compile … , no, wait, that last one was a good thing!

  57. Evidently there was a political (and fortunately for truth) interest in revealing this information from part of the hackers or their bosses. It made possible the Copenhagen fiasco, well represented by the angry face of “Al baby”. Was it Russia or China?. The now called “Climate Gate” , history will tell, mean not only the debunking of pseudo climate science but it casts serious doubts over all occidental “settled sciences”, sciences long ago established by consensus among interested parties (“peers”) instead of being proved at the lab. That is at the best, philosophy, myth, religion or politics, even child games, but in no way
    positive science.

  58. Alex:
    China is the largest, if not only supplier of ‘Rare earths’ without which all green technology is buggered.
    You want to see the pollution they produce extracting the rare metals that go into a ‘Prius’.

  59. Rossa (03:43:22) :

    “background warming”? Now that’s a first for me. Never heard that before – the inventor must have worked in the nuclear industry I suppose. I’ll have to watch out for this new jargonese.

    I still can’t get my head around these guys who claim a sensation by saying that “climate change is real & it’s happening now”, as some prat did on the local radio at lunchtime. It really is stating the “bleeding obvious”, a bit like saying the weather is happening now! Change is what climate does I was always taught. Devon & much of Britain got another dose of AGW yesterday evening along with some of that special ice, you know, the stuff that only forms when it warms! Anyway that 25kg bag of coal was a warm welcome with lovely big nuggets roaring away under the logs on the open fire! Oh the heat it threw out, yipee!

    Took faithful hound out for his usual lunchtime walkies over the fields, most snow north of Exeter melting away promptly but the ground is still quite hard from the per-Christmas freeze up, & surface water run-off building fast. I await the “AGW causes flooding” stories to permeat the MSM before too long!

  60. Re: Daniel H (03:45:22) :

    Steven, thanks for the info. I just grep’d through the files for various potential words that might match the email you mentioned (e.g., login, password, pw, realclimate, RC, yamal, etc) and so far I haven’t found any emails from Sept/Oct of 2009 that contain any explicit or obvious login credentials. Perhaps you could provide a file name for the email in question?

    Try “Username” instead of “username” or use the -i flag for your grep.

    Email 1256353124.txt contains a username and password.

    I’m not thinking straight. It makes far more sense to have
    password-protection rather than IP-address protection. So, to access
    those pages

    Username: steve
    Password: tosser

    Have a good weekend!

    Mike
    [snip]

    I’ve left the username and password in because they will have been changed by now although it might not get past the moderator.

  61. From the perspective of Science, did no one at the CRU think to keep the original data before the tricks and ‘adjustments’ ?

    From the perspective of history, and science, what will people think 50 years from now when they only have 50 years of reliable data? Obviously there are still things we can learn from the data we have, but this has put us back more than a century.

    This whole AWG mess is likely the worst event in the history of science.

  62. tokyoboy (23:10:10):
    I thought that Saiers rhymed with liars. Have you tried writing to the man himself?
    (The name of Dorothy L. Sayers
    rhymes not with players but with prayers.)

  63. It may not be anti-gw. I think it might have something to do with wordpress.com. The Chinese government wasn’t really too co-operative with Copenhagen. I think the blocking has more to do with blogging. More to do with political/ internal paranoia than gw. A wordpress.com factor seems to be common to most of the blocks, Although wordpress.com is accessible with no difficulties. Go figure. I won’t jump to any conclusions yet (that is the scientific way). I will check AGW sites tomorrow and see if some of them have been affected the same way. Midnight here-going to bed

  64. Kay (06:20:58) :

    @ Peter of Sydney (00:43:52) : “This would make for a very interesting movie one day.”

    Somehow I doubt Michael Moore will be directing it.

    ****************************************************

    Probably not, but Tom Hanks will star as an intrepid climate scientist trotting the globe to decode cryptic clues, which, when pieced together, assume a suspicious hockey-stick shape that matches perfectly the unusual configuration of the parquet floor, the only remaining feature of a 14th-century banquet hall in the vicinity of East Anglia, UK, of the Confraternity of the Order the Holy CRU-sci-fiction, protectors of a relic, a thin glass vessel filled with a mysterious silver liquid once thought to have measured the surface temperature at Golgotha at the time of Christ’s Passion (with Mel Gibson making a cameo appearance in flashback scene).

    Oh, and Hanks’ character gets very lucky in the end! No, not that kind of lucky, filth-brains! His paper passes peer-review.

  65. Alan the Brit says: Are they (the BBC) really just hedging their bets?

    With complaints coming at them from all directions; reviews and investigations galore; a General election less than 150 days away – with the likelihood of a vengeful Conservative government a distint possibility – I’d say they are running scared!

  66. @Daniel H: “On Tuesday November 17, a substantial file including over 1000 emails either sent from or sent to members of the Climatic Research Unit (‘CRU’) at the University of East Anglia, was downloaded on the RealClimate website, ….”

    I don’t see this as proof that the file ever was downloaded from RealClimate by a third party. It’s quirky English and I suspect they meant “downloaded onto” meaning “uploaded to.”

  67. “steven mosher (01:37:44) :

    P gosslin. SteveMc and charles and I have disclosed all we know. we have to live in uncertainty. I’d put the SD very tight around norwich.

    REPLY: That’s true, and I don’t know the identity either. All we know about the comment left at WUWT is that it came from an anonymous proxy server in Riyadh Saudi Arabia with a link to an FTP server in Russia. The trail stops there. – Anthony”

    Darn – I was hoping for it to be some disgruntled turncoat at CRU or something. I guess it’s still quite an amusing ending. Important thing is that it’s out. Thanks for your tenacity and great result!

  68. sHx (05:00:16) :

    Yes there is a book coming out. However, The story of how the files came out
    needed to be a PUBLIC story before the book came out. This has been a hard hard decision. But so many people, Charles, Anthony, SteveMc, Jeff, Lucia
    had a role in getting this out that it would be unfair for me and Tom to use information that many of had just to promote a book. I dont want people to buy it to find out WHO DUNNIT.

    1. we dont know
    2. it doesnt matter
    3. the issue is greater than personalities.

    The book essentially will give you a detailed view of some of the episodes
    over a 5 year history. our conclusions about what happened and why it matters.

  69. mkurbo (04:07:05) :

    When one considers the real magnitude of this subject ( control of the world via eco governance ) it deserves a book and a movie if it indeed plays out as a turning point on AGW – which it may…

    You might find this interchange of interest:

    http://climateaudit.org/2010/01/12/the-mosher-timeline/

    Dave McK
    Posted Jan 13, 2010 at 1:01 AM | Permalink | Reply

    Lol @ Scott-

    The Devil in Mr. Jones

    *
    Steven Mosher
    Posted Jan 13, 2010 at 2:08 AM | Permalink | Reply

    ha. Ok chapter 3 of the book is the “The devil and mr Jones”

    haha.
    o
    Dave McK
    Posted Jan 13, 2010 at 3:41 AM | Permalink | Reply

    Isn’t that the usual double feature with Deep Throat?
    +
    jtom
    Posted Jan 13, 2010 at 8:05 AM | Permalink | Reply

    Triple Feature: The Devil in Mr. Jones, Deep Throat, and Behind the Green Door.

  70. steven mosher

    Everything you’ve been saying in comments at the various blogs about openness and peer-review and swift correction of errors and advancing science and frozen mindsets etc. is simple, plain, and obvious to those without a myopic view. Protecting territory in the future is going to be a losing game. I hope you include a chapter on the benefits and implication of openness and collaboration beyond the tribe. Otherwise, what happened is just a sad story.

  71. From the Air Vent comment:

    “November 17, 2009 at 9:57 pm ”

    ‘We feel that climate science is, in the current situation, too important to be kept under wraps.”

    “We hereby release a random selection of correspondence, code, and documents.
    Hopefully it will give some insight into the science and the people behind it.”

    I find the use “we” by the commenter on Jeff Id’s blog intriging. Is it misdirection? It doesn’t feel like it to me. Is it just my wishful thinking that there could be a group of concerned scientists (with some of them inside of CRU) that made the release happen? A group dedicated to restoring open and independent science. I find a group theory of data/code/email release more plausible than the “lone” releaser theory.

    John

  72. superDBA (06:43:45) :

    Skeptic Tank (04:18:23) :

    Nostalgic about nixie tubes? Pulease! Don’t you remember the heat and the buzzing from the power supply? You might as well be nostalgic about 8 inch floppies and 64k of Ram and Winchester disks. Or getting coffee while waiting 30 minutes for a short program to compile … , no, wait, that last one was a good thing!

    The Polywell Fusion Reactor may be the biggest tube ever built. If it works the final power producing device is expected to be 3 to 6 meters across. We Will Know In Two Years or less.

  73. steven mosher (11:08:57) :

    Steven, I am looking forward to reading the book but a lot depends on the length. Approx how many pages do you think it will be? Also, will it be issued in print for purchase, or freeley available online?

    I hope a book so soon after the event won’t be too premature. I predicted and said so in several of my comments elsewhere that the contents of the CRU emails and the science contained in it will be scrutinised and debated for months, years and even decades into the future. I believe in due time other scientific disciplines will put Climatology under the microscope, examine its methods, and assess whether Climatology is a bona fide scientific field. Following the CRU leak, I read thousands of comments in the Real Climate blog -which suddenly opened up to criticism- as it tried to provide ‘context’ to the contents, and I found people who claimed to be from other scientific disciplines were very critical of Climatology for damaging the general public trust in science. That Michael Mann complained of not receiving much help in his defence from the community is a sign that other scientists -climatologists and others alike- do not want to be associated Mann, Jones, et al.

    Anyways… all the best with the book. No doubt it will be a source of reference for the debates to come. I hope you have catchy title. :-)

  74. Quote: steven mosher (11:08:57) :
    sHx (05:00:16) :

    “Yes there is a book coming out. However, the story of how the files came out needed to be a PUBLIC story before the book came out. This has been a hard hard decision. But so many people, Charles, Anthony, Steve Mc, Jeff, Lucia had a role in getting this out that it would be unfair for me and Tom to use information that many of had just to promote a book. I dont want people to buy it to find out WHO DUNNIT. . . .

    The book essentially will give you a detailed view of some of the episodes
    over a 5 year history, our conclusions about what happened and why it matters.”

    Thanks Steven, Charles, Anthony, Steve Mc, Jeff and Lucia for keeping the spotlight focused on this scandal.

    You do a great service to mankind and to future generations of scientists.

    The roots of the climate scandal go very deep into the past.

    The current scandal is only the tip of a very dirty iceberg of deceit and data manipulation that probably started soon after the US government switched its priorities from nuclear to space sciences following the surprise launch of the Sputnik spy spacecraft in 1957.

    NASA was created in 1958. Power shifted to space sciences (NASA and the Geophysics Section of the National Academy of Sciences-NAS) from nuclear sciences (AEC and leaders of the Manhattan Project to build the atomic and hydrogen bombs).

    As a result of several decades of fraud and deceit by the Geophysics Section of NAS, a revolution will occur in astronomy, astrophysics, climatology, cosmology, solar and space sciences if you succeed in using the spotlight of public attention to completely melt the climategate iceberg.

    I hope you succeed!

    With kind regards,
    Oliver K. Manuel
    Former NASA PI for Apollo

  75. AdderW (05:10:36) :
    “Anthropogenic global warming -> Global warming -> CLimate change ->
    Background warming -> ?

    what’s next ?”
    —-

    Catastrophic Background Warming ->……..

    I’m not joking either, they keep changing the definitions along with the weather. How can they ever prove background warming in a cooling world? Will they create another model showing the background human signal and say that it would be -50 C in London but instead it is -1C. :o)

  76. Anthropogenic global warming -> Global warming ->CLimate change ->Background warming -> ….and…

    ->Pipeline Background Warming

    The big deeep Ocean currents, in other words. Not CO2.

    800 years delays….

  77. RE sXh et al.

    There is a human interest story here that will not come out of Mosh’s book nor from the blogosphere that recieved or gained access to the FOI2009.zip files (one way or another). Your question was about the simmilarity between the July CRU leak and “Climategate”.

    The simmilarities:

    They came from the same organization.
    They came form the same server system.
    The data was left on that server and was accessable to others.

    Where are they different?

    The July leak wasn’t a leak. Data was readily available from the FTP site so the information came direct from source.
    The CRUtape files were a compilation and a subset of a larger group of emails. As CTM stated, they were probably aggregated by David Palmer as part of the FOI investigation, whereas the July leak was just data and code.

    Did one precipitate the other?

    The July leak sent a lot of indaviduals to the CRU website to see for themselves how data files -avaialble to the public- were being moved, deleted, etc. It was verification for me and others that the “mole” was just a file server, and not a person. The servers were locked down to outside access as the FOIA requests became more prominent and speculation grew as to what was happening to all that data being shuffled about. The mole was continuing to hold data, but was now also was collecting and collating emails.

    Where is the human interest story?

    The CRUtape files were “sent away” by “someone” coincident with the pending announcement that the CRU was going to reject Steve McI’s FOI request. Someone was either present in that meeting, or heard about the outcome.

    Anonamous is legion.

  78. Martin Brumby (05:13:40) :
    …”It wuz Jolly Jim Hansen wot dunnit!”
    ______________

    Could be. Lightning and/or Ice have made many repent their sins and seek redemption. But… I still think some Chinese wiz kid did it.

  79. kadaka (01:38:43) :

    Many thanks. For a chemist having pubished 30 or so translations, it was often difficult to get to the most suitable pronunciation of foreign proper names.

  80. Hello,

    This is a general question, rather than a comment to this thread.

    I have been been doing some multiple regression analysis with global temperature data, and in the process have found some very interesting correlations that explain much of the variance observed in the global temperature data over the past 50 years.

    I have written a paper describing this work, abstract below. Is it possible to contribute this paper for your consideration. If so, how does one go about it?

    Thanks,

    Donald Holdner

    Abstract
    A multiple regression model of global temperature anomalies is presented. The model, based on the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the solar cycle, explains more than 80% of global temperature variance over the period 1960 to 2008. A novel parameter, extracted from the ENSO data, accounts for the long-term effects of ENSO events. The paper shows that it is these effects, rather than greenhouse gases, that are responsible for the increasing global temperatures observed over the last century.

  81. Ian L. McQueen (06:41:33) : “Yes, Say-ers would be correct. And knowing something of katakana-ization of English words and the lack of an “r” sound in Japanese, I predict that it will come out something like say–ahs.”

    I think it is certain Chinese dialects that lack the ‘R’ sound. Japanese lacks the “L” sound. It contains many words and names with an R: Hirohito, hara-kiri, Hiroshima, Rashomon, Arikawa, arigato, apatana-guru and so on and on.

  82. Daniel H (03:19:34) wrote:

    “On or around December 1st, the media reported that police were “working with a team from Scotland Yard amid speculation that hackers also tried to break into a second climate institution in Canada.” The Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis […]”

    This centre is actually situated at the University of Victoria. The allegation had been made by Andrew Weaver, “Canada’s leading climate modeler”. He did succeed in getting considerable media mileage out of this; however, he didn’t count on a U. Vic informant fwding an internal E-mail to Steve McIntyre, as reported by Terence Corcoran in the National Post (circa Dec. 10):

    Weaver’s Web II

    “Climate modeller’s break-in caper spreads across Canadian university, exposing Climategate as monster cross-disciplinary big-oil funded attack on psychology labs

    “The break-in at Doc Weaver’s office, which he linked to the evil fossil fuel industry’s attempt to discredit global warming policy, turns out to have been one of numerous break-ins at the University of Victoria.

    “On Dec. 2, an official university-wide email warned that “there have been a number of office and lab break-ins across campus in recent days […]”

    http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/12/09/terence-corcoran-weaver-s-web-ii.aspx

    I dunno about these “climate modellers” and their fellow alarmists … they so often seem to succeed in damning themselves with their own words. For other examples of this rather unfortunate trait, see:

    http://hro001.wordpress.com/2010/01/01/agw-alarmists-slow-learners-damning-selves-with-own-words/

  83. AdderW (05:10:36) :

    “Anthropogenic global warming -> Global warming -> CLimate change ->
    Background warming -> ?

    what’s next?”

    Well, I was poking around on the CRU UEA site. Peter Liss, the Acting Director (during the Jones “review”) lists his Research Interests as:

    Environmental chemistry; biogeochemical interaction between the oceans and atmosphere; and …. wait for it ….

    global change

  84. Mods, can I recommend at least a ‘scrub’ of this post for language:

    Michael (23:51:15) :

    Thanks. (I don’t want my kids to see something like this please.)
    .
    .

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