108,500 Deaths in the US in 2008; 36,700 in England and Wales Last Winter; 5,600 in Canada (2006); 7,000 in Australia (1997-2006 Average); Thousands in Other Developed Countries
Indur M. Goklany
Since extreme cold has gripped much of the Northern Hemisphere, some newspapers have been keeping a tally of the number of deaths obviously caused by extreme cold (e.g., freezing). But the BBC’s Health Correspondent, Clare Murphy, in a very timely and, in my opinion, excellent article, How cold turns up the heat on health, reminds us that many more deaths occur from chronic conditions that are exacerbated by cold weather. She also notes that, “For every degree the temperature drops below 18C, deaths in the UK go up by nearly 1.5%.”
Following is a compilation of excess deaths during the winter months (compared to what occurs on average during the rest of the year) in a number of developed countries in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Unfortunately, our politicians complain about the warmth and would like to make the climate cooler if they could, even as they bemoan the costs of health care.
United States. 2001-2008
Figure 1: Average daily deaths for each month, United States, 2001-2008. Sources: 2001-2004 data from National Center for Health Statistics, DataWarehouse at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/datawh/statab/unpubd/mortabs/gmwkIV_10.htm, and National Vital Statistics System available at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/deaths.htm; 2005 data from Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2006, Volume 55, Number 20, 6 pp (PHS 2007-1120); 2006 data from Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2007. NVSR Volume 56, Number 21, 6 pp (PHS) 2008-1120; 2007-08 data from Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2008. NVSR Volume 57, Number 19, 6 pp.
The figure above, based on data from the US National Center for Health Statistics for 2001-2008, shows that on average 7,200 Americans died each day during the months of December, January, February and March, compared to the average 6,400 who died daily during the rest of the year. In 2008, there were 108,500 “excess” deaths during the 122 days in the cold months (January to March and December; it was a leap year).
Canada, 1991-2006
Figure 2, based on data from CANSIM for 1991-20068, shows that on average 656 Canadians died daily in January compared to 546 per day in August. In 2006, there were 5,640 excess deaths during the winter months in Canada.
Figure 2: Average daily deaths for each month, Canada, 1991-2006. Source: CANSIM (2009).
England & Wales, 1950/51-2008/09
Figure 3: Excess winter mortality, England and Wales, 1950/51–2008/09. Source: UK ONS (2009).
Figure 3 shows that despite an increase in the population of England and Wales, excess winter deaths have generally declined since the 1950s due, probably, to increased affluence, better heating and insulation, clothing and any warming (whether due to UHI or global warming). [Also, some readers may know more about this, but I believe rationing was still in force in the UK in the early 1950s. Poor nutrition would have exacerbated mortality.]
However, last winter (Dec 2008-Mar 2009), there was a remarkably large jump in the excess number of winter deaths, perhaps due to colder/damper weather and increased fuel prices. The UK’s Office of National Statistics states:
“In the winter period of December to March 2008/09 there were an estimated 36,700 more deaths in England and Wales, compared with the average for the non-winter period (see definition below). This was an increase of 49 per cent compared with the number in the previous winter 2007/08. This is the highest number of excess winter deaths since the winter of 1999/2000, when excess winter mortality was nearly a third higher than in 2008/09.”
It will be interesting to see the figures when data are available for this year.
Other Developed Countries
Figure 4: Monthly percentage variation in mortality compared to yearly average over the last years in European Mediterranean countries and other selected countries worldwide. Countries in the legend are listed according the absolute number of average deaths per day observed, in descending order. Source: Fagalas et al. (2009).
Finally, Figure 4 shows the percent variation in monthly mortality relative to annual averages for recent years in various developed countries. Notably, even Greece and Cyprus (!) have greater mortality in the winter months, even though one would not classify either of them as particularly cold places. See the Table above.
References:
Falagas ME, Karageorgopoulos DE, Moraitis LI, Vouloumanou EK, Roussos N, Peppas G, Rafailidis PI (2009). Seasonality of mortality: the September phenomenon in Mediterranean countries. CMAJ 181(8): 484-6.
Excellent dig. WUWT should keep a close watch on mortality vs cold.
It’s argueably the most cutting inflamatory taboo for AGWer’s that they are compounding the very serious cold death problem during the 20 year gleissburg solar minimum we now face with their global warming rhetoric. Not murder in the 1st, but perhaps a skeptic lawyer could issue an intetnt to sue every AGWer for manslaughter by willful neglect.
Did i get that right, the swedes are the only people that like to live in the cold and die when it’s getting warmer?
“TerryS (03:06:39) :
[…]
I doubt it. Where I live in the UK we are now experiencing our second day of sunshine since the snow fell on Tuesday.[…]”
In the northern countries, you will not produce any Vitamin D during the winter months even when the sun is shining. The sun is too low; its rays have to go through too much atmosphere and the UV is essentially absorbed. Forget it and do some Vitamin D pils instead. I think it’s called a “polar winter”. Or use a sunbench if you want to.
You can build up Vitamin D storage during the summer months simply by getting a tan, exercize outdoors etc… It’s stored in the fatty tissue. But you can’t build up any through sunlight in the winter months.
“DirkH (03:14:33) :
Did i get that right, the swedes are the only people that like to live in the cold and die when it’s getting warmer?”
Sorry 😉 New Zealand and Sweden have the same color in that graph…
Remember weather is not climate:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100107/ap_on_sc/sci_big_chill
Just got a text messages from my mum in Clanfield, Hampshire, UK. They are snowed in. Snowed in!!! So much for Gorebull warming.
It is sooo much more dangerous to die from cold than it is to die from heat, there, settled.
For those who like to chant about “departure from normal” and then
say how much “warmer” most of Canada is since the cold has slipped
down into US48:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/canada_e.html
…no danger of defrosting the tundra up north !
Most of these tempertures will still kill you… it might take a half hour more than other years.
There is a jump in mortality rates for the US in July and August that returns to the pack in September. Vacationing from work and school is more dangerous here than elsewhere. Or is it excessive exposure to air conditioning?
What about China?
Benjamin (01:26:40) :
> The U.S. has 108,500 to Canada’s 5,640 excess deaths. That’s quite a difference.
> Insights, anyone?
Speculation:
The winter storm track is consistently south of Canada, so Canadians expect it to be cold and prepare for it.
In the US, the storm track rarely makes it as far south as it is this winter, so people are often unprepared and don’t have good insulation, heat, snow tires or winter skills.
Also, a lot of American retirees move south to escape the cold and may not be able to handle it when it catches up to them.
Maybe the CDC or NIH could apply for some climate change funding to look into it.
One thing I would like to see is not just the numbers of deaths but a percentage based upon population. As some one asked upthread about why American deaths are higher then Canadian deaths there are two reasons why. One, America has a population of approximately 330 million versus Canadas 33 million. As well all houses up here in Canada are built for winter conditions and properly insulated. A lot of American houses in the south have no insulation and don’t have a proper furnace when you get cold snaps like what Florida is currently going through. That will have an effect on cold deaths.
Stock up on books, brits:
http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/blog/climate/going-going-gone-20100104
Benjamin
The US population is about 15 times as large? Your quite starck thing is not, it may be a small difference in rate. But, the main reason the numbers are so much higher in the US are that the population is that much larger.
kadaka (23:07:12) :
“18 – (1/0.015) = -48 2/3
-48 2/3 * 9/5 + 32 = -55.6
So if it drops to -49C (-56F), everyone dies?
Maybe a linear relationship isn’t exactly correct…”
Interesting argument. Of course when you extrapolate to the extreme condition you probably get bizarre results. As an example if the temperature dropped below -48.67C more than 100% of the population would die. But as a practical matter I think that if the temperature in the UK dropped to -48.67C the death rate would skyrocket.
Death from cold is AGW’s elephant in the room.
The (mostly Northern hemisphere) excess deaths from cold that would be avoided by a few of degrees extra heat vastly out-weigh the (mostly Africa and Southern hemisphere) extra deaths that would caused by that same heating.
I think Bjorn Lomborg looked into it in “Cool It”, I forget the figure, but it was about 10-1.
Al Baby has protected himself, just in case of such eventuality, with thick layers of grease around his body, which will preserve him from extinction.
kadaka: You should read more carefully
Here’s a quick redo of the numbers into “Deaths per 10,000 population”,
which makes the proportions nicely visible.
United States 3.52
Canada 1.65
Britain 5.92
Australia 3.16
New Zealand 3.67
Japan 4.00
France 3.84
Italy 6.22
Spain 5.13
Sweden 4.28
Greece 5.13
Hey Polistra. Thanks for that break down into deaths per. Goes to show that Canada knows how to deal with winters.
The global changes in average surface temperatures caused by the detonation of 100 Hiroshima-size weapons in the cities of India and Pakistan (50 weapons in each nation) would act to decrease the length of growing seasons in the Northern Hemisphere. In some places like Canada (see map below) the decreases in average temperature would have drastic effects upon the ability to grow the annual wheat crop. It is predicted that wheat exports would cease for three or more years; the global decreases in grain production would be severe and would likely lead to a global nuclear famine affecting hundreds of millions of already hungry people (see the article by Dr. Ira
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/warconsequences/reducedcanadianwheatgrowing/
Now assume that global average surface temperatures decline is due to periodic and regular normal planetary cycles. It only takes 1-2 C decline in average temperatures during the growing season or a shortened growing season due to an extended extra cold spring like happened in parts of Canada in 2009 to seriously cut our crop harvests. The average summer temperature in 2009 in the Canadian Prairies dropped 1.1C and 0.3 C in the Prairies and Northwestern Prairies . There was a 20% drop in Canadian crops . So we are coming very close to the danger zone in crop losses already in some regions of North America . The same could be coming to Europe and Asia as well.
My purpose for posting this is that with all the alarmism, unreal hype and focus on global warming 100 year from now [which may turn out to be a false threat entirely], we are ignoring the fact there is a real threat which is much more immanent ], namely a natural cool cycle of 20-30 years . Crop shortages , fossil fuel shortages , inflation, and economic turmoil like the 1970.s are a very real possibility unless we get real about where our focus is . Cutting carbon dioxide emissions or focusing only on global warming will not heat our home during these cooler periods but oil and gas may help us to survive .Lets not panic and demonize fossil fuels prematurely. It may be our salvation until we develop other sources of clean energy in comparable volume and cost.
For an pretty thorough examination of the seasonality of weather-related mortality across the U.S. I would recommend this paper:
http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr2004/26/c026p061.pdf
From it, I prefer to conclude, that more people die in the winter because it is winter, not because it is cold.
-Chip
Wondering Aloud (06:48:58) : “The US population is about 15 times as large? Your quite starck thing is not, it may be a small difference in rate.”
Yes, I had thought of that before posting. But as a percentage of population (for whatever that’s worth), Canada has about 50% fewer winter deaths than the U.S. Kind of odd, considering that it gets colder up there. But maybe that does explain it. But I’m more inclined to think that…
Ric Werme (06:08:26) : “Speculation: The winter storm track is consistently south of Canada, so Canadians expect it to be cold and prepare for it.”
I wondered the same too. But people living out in the country down here usually do prepare (they love to let us city-slickers know that kind of stuff). And in the city, unless one doesn’t have heat to begin with, how much preparation is required to turn up the heat, wear heavier clothes, blankets, etc?
So there’s still much to wonder about there. I did think of another possibility, though since posting.
One thing I do know about Canada, having been to Toronto, Montreal, and Calgary many times… No homeless people. Or if they do have them, they’re few and/or very well hidden! I haven’t come across anything that shows this to be the case, so it’s still speculation. Still, this might well explain the difference, or at least a good part of it.
Anyway, I was wondering if there was anything on this that confirms why. One of the reasons I’m wondering about this is that it might figure into the healthcare “debate”. Socialists love to point to Canada as a shining picture of health whenever the U.S. is mentioned in the same paragraph, but maybe coming down on the winter deaths would put a dent in their argument (and perhaps put money to better use, to really save some lives).
Been looking around, and I’ll keep my eyes open, but if anyone has a link I’d much appreciate it!
Watts going on ?
When there is an exceptional waether event in the UK (heavy prolonged rainfall with floods, or a cold snap), there is almost always an accepted reason for why it happens, which is a change in the position of the jet stream – coming lower over the UK rather than just over the top of Scotland.
But now? Exceptional cold over Europe (including the UK), Russia, China, most of the USA ?? Has anybody a sensible reason for the whole Northern hemisphere suddenly suffering great cold?
has it to do with the quiet Sun? No doubt the IPPC will just laugh that out of court…..
PaladinPhil (08:27:03) : “Hey Polistra. Thanks for that break down into deaths per. Goes to show that Canada knows how to deal with winters.”
Same here! I should have looked at the other countries, instead of just the U.S. and Canada…