It has often been said that “Weather is not climate”, but ultimately it provides the only meaningful way to verify climate models. Did the climate models predict the cold, snowy weather which has been seen across much of the US?
According to NOAA, October was the third coldest on record in the US, with almost every state showing temperatures from one to ten degrees below normal. Some Parts of Colorado received record snowfall during October, starting the first week of the month.
Image from HPRCC – University of Nebraska at Lincoln
With a few days left, it appears that December is headed for a repeat, with temperatures ranging from one to fifteen degrees below normal. (Note that the color scale is different from October, now the greens show more negative departure, even South Texas is at -6F)
Image from HPRCC – University of Nebraska at Lincoln
Temperatures for the rest of the month are forecast by NCEP to be below normal for almost the entire country, so it is unlikely that the map will change much before New Years Day.
So let’s compare the complete Autumn temperatures vs. the forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. In August, CPC forecast that most of the US would have above normal temperatures from October through December, and perhaps more importantly did did not predict that any areas would have below normal temperatures.
As you can see below, their prediction was largely reversed from what has happened. Most of the country has seen below normal temperatures during the same period.
Image from HPRCC – University of Nebraska at Lincoln
So my question is – if the climate models can’t reliably predict the next three months, what basis do they have to claim their ability to forecast 100 years out? It is well known in the weather modeling community that beyond about three days, the models tend to break down due to chaos.
We have all heard lots of predictions of warmer winters, less snow, animal populations moving north, drought, dying ski resorts, etc. But did anyone in the climate modeling community forecast the cold, snowy start to winter which has occurred. If not, it would appear that their models are not mature enough to base policy decisions on.
On the other side of the pond, The Met Office forecast 2010 to be the warmest year ever, as they last did in 2007. On cue, the weather turned bitter cold immediately after the forecast and it appears that the unusally cold weather will continue at least through mid-January. As in 2007, the Met office 2010 forecast is not getting off to a good start:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Basil (07:19:56): “These trends are compared to the 1971-2000 climate normals.”
Only one more year to go and this *should* change to 1981-2010 … I suspect that could change things a bit.
Steve, and other talented folks:
Is there a map for the average reader that overlays the station
locations for U.S. land temperature reports with the monthly
departure from normal maps above?
We could use an overlay like that to visualize and infer what’s
going to be loaded into the existing weather and climate models.
We could also guestimate the impact of little “cold” pockets that
might be missed (like most of Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas)
due to the lack of reporting stations.
Alexander Feht (22:41:52) :
“Looks like The Old Farmer’s Almanac wins again.
What do they know that Hansen and Mann don’t want to know?”
In the video it sounded a bit Corbynish.
A little while later
Paul Vaughan continued;
“And how about the 3 week interval exactly 1 year ago?”
Hard to forget that. Land use changes combined with the weather caused all kinds of damage around here last year. Just down the road an entire hillside slipped and a house got pushed off it’s foundation in a mudslide during that downpour. Mind you, there was 18 inches of snow on top of a few inches of frozen soil when that rain hit. The water sheeted along the surface causing much flooding. Then the temp fell drastically and everything got buried under another 2 feet or so of snow! It didn’t completely thaw until June of this year.
“You may have noticed that the mountain ranges of western N. America seem to have had warm (west) & cool (east) pools of air (relatively speaking, on average) since about June.”
You got that right! Very much in evidence where I am. It’s like a curtain that seems to be moving back and forth over the valley I am in. Once one moves into the “eastern” air it is much dryer. This is the sort of thing one usually sees much further into the interior.
As far as the ice you see while kayaking in English Bay, it is probably cold, dry outflow air causing this. Kinda makes your point… I’ll read through the rest of the comments and see what the answer is.
Cheers!
The problem with many modelers is that they tend to take a simple view that CO2 is changing quickly and everything else in the climate system is relatively static. They are convinced that temperatures should be steadily rising, and constantly look for new and creative ways to prove that their preconceived notions are correct.
——
From: Kevin Trenberth
To: Michael Mann
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider , Myles Allen , peter stott , “Philip D. Jones” , Benjamin Santer , Tom Wigley , Thomas R Karl , Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen , Michael Oppenheimer
Hi all
Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in
Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We
had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it
smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a
record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies
baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing
weather).
Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth’s global
energy. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, 19-27,
doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [1][PDF] (A PDF of the published version can be obtained
from the author.)
The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a
travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008
shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing
system is inadequate.
That said there is a LOT of nonsense about the PDO. People like CPC are tracking PDO on a
monthly basis but it is highly correlated with ENSO. Most of what they are seeing is the
change in ENSO not real PDO. It surely isn’t decadal. The PDO is already reversing with
the switch to El Nino. The PDO index became positive in September for first time since
Sept 2007. see
[2]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_c
urrent.ppt
Kevin
More from the Met Office / BBC
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8432437.stm
To be fair Winter is defined by the Met office as December, January and February. With a milder winter in the UK defined as as a winter-mean temperature greater than 4.3 °C. A near average Winter by temperatures between 3.4 °C and 4.3 °C and a colder winter by temperatures lower than 3.4 °C. So there is still a chance that we (UK) could get a mild winter as forcast by the Met…yeah like dates!
Disruption in Scotland:
http://news.scotsman.com/scotland/Snow-lies-18in-deep-as.5940403.jp
and:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2785634/Scotland-shivers-under-another-foot-of-snow-with-more-blizzards-forecast.html
and
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8431672.stm
Even Ireland (which tends to be mild) is in the grip of this winter:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/1228/breaking9.htm
and:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/1228/1224261301740.html?via=mr
Oh dear – the Met Office are in the stocks again
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6901002/Warnings-of-more-snow-for-Britain-as-predictions-of-mild-winter-fall-flat.html
The BBC forecast makes interesting reading. Maybe someone hacked the site.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209
Published at 09:00 on 28th December
All times are GMT (Europe/London, GMT+0000)
(Next update at 09:00 on 4th Jan 2010)
Written by Rob McElwee
Summary
Cold with more snow.
This winter looks like going down as one of the more memorable “proper winters”. The wind this coming month is anywhere from southeasterly to northerly – all cold at this time of the year.
All parts of the UK can expect more snow at some time alongside below average daytime temperatures and hard night frosts.
Monday 28 December 2009 to Sunday 3 January 2010
Rain, wind, snow and ice.
A low pressure area in Biscay pumps moisture into the cold air over us now. The result is a significant snow risk. At the moment, the most likely areas to be affected are Wales and mid to north England midweek, then southeast Britain for the New Year.
At first, southern Britain will be mild, wet and windy – rain rather than snow. Northern Britain will remain cold, icy and at first fog-prone.
A little more snow is possible in Scotland and northeast England, especially on Wednesday and Thursday in the northeasterly wind.
Sunshine is in short supply with possible exception of northwest mainland Scotland.
Monday 4 January 2010 to Sunday 10 January 2010
Northerly wind all week.
Below average daytime temperatures, moderate to severe night frosts.
A reasonable breeze should prevent persistent fog and allow daytime sunshine; With the exception of those areas exposed to the windblown showers there should be above average sunshine.
The windblown showers are likely to all be of snow and concentrated in northern Scotland. You can also expect a fair few in eastern England, including East Anglia.
Monday 11 January 2010 to Sunday 24 January 2010
Cold east or southeasterly wind.
Temperatures will continue to be below average both day and night.
Snow and sleet showers will be concentrated in eastern England, especially the northeast.
Western Britain looks sunnier and drier than elsewhere because of the wind’s direction. Northern Ireland maintains its average.
Next week
In my memory, February has always brought the coldest and snowiest weather. My memory may be deceiving me but if not…
Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Roger J (05:23:19) :
You wrote: “I don’t understand why they had to change the scaling ..”
I suspect the software is sufficiently automated such that the range of values is checked and the contours/shading is chosen without any intervention by a human. This seems to be a common concept except when a ‘one-of-a-kind’ map is wanted for a presentation or a publication. When many maps are produced daily, weekly, monthly – automation is going to drive these images. If you want exact comparisons I think you will have to download the “raw” data and plot the maps yourself.
REPLY: Yes, we can have the USA annex Canada, then NOAA will cover it. – Anthony
Funny!
That is just being lazy, they could come up with any resolution they wanted by adding texture, crosshatching etc. They should have a fixed color/temperature association so that maps can be directly compared without the reader having to sort out how one color that meant normal last month now means warming.
Larry
JonesII (07:38:54) :
kadaka (20:24:20) : That is not cherry picking but planting cherries. (presumably in a greenhouse with CO2 added).
Remember for awhile there they were citing the earlier blossoming of the cherry trees in Washington DC as proof of global warming? Maybe they still are, if it is still happening.
However I have yet to see a report as to how much of the supposedly increased local temps can be attributable to the ever-increasing concentration of heat-producing bureaucrats. They are getting rather dense.
Plato Says (09:09:31) :
Oh dear – the Met Office are in the stocks again
Apparently they are a very good predictor of the weather, if you assume the opposite of what they are saying.
It’s like when it’s cited as “proof” of telepathy when someone consistently does much worse than pure chance, as with the “What card am I holding” test. To be that bad that often they must know what the answer is, they are somehow just avoiding it.
And since the current answers involve “there has been no statistically significant warming nor do we see any happening anytime soon,” well…
” u.k.(us) (19:43:42) :
the first person/entity to predict the weather reliabily, even in the 24-48 hour period…….. never mind, too many variables.
could have made lots of money.”
You mean Group Captain Sir James Martin Stagg who managed to persuaded General Dwight D. Eisenhower to change the date of D-Day from June 5 to June 6, 1944., promising that he would have 5 good days for air support?
Been burning old paper records before the EPA bans open trash burning. It causes a little warming but college kids always like a bonfire. After tweeking the numbers, burning the old documents helps lessen confusion.
NOAA: December 2nd Warmest is last 884 years.
I was going to post a couple whoppers from Jane Lubchenco’s recent testimony to congress.
But I couldn’t decide which of the many to post.
If you haven’t read this you should.
It’s the full monty and a remarkable display of the agenda and it’s methods.
http://www.legislative.noaa.gov/Testimony/Lubchenco120209.pdf
Unfortunately, Africa, Siberia, and other difficult to verify locations with poor distribution will show unprecendented warming as they always have. When the books are cooked we all fry.
John Blake (19:40:36) :
Climate Cultists’ foolish assertions to the contrary display not mere naivete but willful blindness to mathematical reality, a deluded self-importance concomitant with radically skewed Arguments from Authority by Stipulation: AGW is true because we Ascended Masters say it is.
John: heretical writings such as these will find you wallowing behind bars. Please do not stop as it is delightfully reminiscent of cousin William!
Is anyone “Ascended” who merely stands upon a pedestal?
I finally get to see the fabled “temperature hockey stick” with my own eyes and it turns out not to look like a hockey stick at all; more like a “tire iron” with its long end pointing downward.
CH
Joel Shore (07:04:55) :
This piece http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/09/decadal-predictions/ is relevant to this post.
Joel:
the article is interesting in that is begins to recognize the flaws in the entire ethos of computer modeling. At its conclusion the author (Gavin) notes the troubling perception that:
“… to meet the expectations of society, it is both necessary and possible to revolutionize climate prediction. … It is possible firstly because of major advances in scientific understanding, secondly because of the development of seamless prediction systems which unify weather and climate prediction, thus bringing the insights and constraints of weather prediction into the climate change arena, and thirdly because of the ever-expanding power of computers.”
Gavin’s response is:
“However, just because something is necessary (according to the expectations of society) does not automatically mean that it is possible! Indeed, there is a real danger for society’s expectations to get completely out of line with what eventually will prove possible, and it’s important that policies don’t get put in place that are not robust to the real uncertainty in such predictions.”
This is encouraging as to RC and warmists recognizing the quite remarkable failures in climate modeling to date. A healthy precursor to amending agenda.
Scientists claiming they can predict with 90+% certainty what the climate will be 50 or 100 years from now but really have no way of predicting what it will be 5 or ten years from now defies logic.
For arguments sake, lets assume what they claim is true. That would mean if they take all their data up to the year 1965 (no data after 1965 can be used because for the purposes of this calculation it “doesn’t exist yet”) and run it thru their models they should easily be able to predict with better than 90% probability what the weather will be like in 2010.
Or expressed another way, they claim they can now predict what the weather will be like in 2060 based on what they know now, but by the time 2055 rolls around, they will now have no clue what 2060 will be like.
Bottom line, if your model is no good for 5 years from now, its worthless for 50 years from now too.
If you look at the Weather Channel vs. your actual local forecaster’s forecasts, my feeling is that for the past couple of years TWC’s is always a bit higher (1-2 degrees), even for tomorrow or the next 10 days. With, of course the subsequent reality agreeing with the lower, local forecaster’s numbers. I haven’t done a statistical analysis of this yet, although I want to.
My feeling is that it is purely propaganda and not based on the NOAA predictions or any difference in scientific models vs. what the local guys have to use. If you say that it is warmer often enough, people will believe it. I believe this kind of plan, if that is what it is, will back-fire though, as people will expect warmer weather when you predict it and the cold will actually then feel more pronounced.
I’m not saying that this is what the NOAA is doing (which I follow through their weekly ENSO update pages.) It is just an observation and a possibility of what the NOAA might be doing as well.
Ho w many more years of observation do we need before we can seriously dump the IPCC computer predictions of catastrophic warming? The discrepancy between modelled and observed that started a few years ago is now increasing at an alarming rate.
Claude Harvey (12:12:56) :
I finally get to see the fabled “temperature hockey stick” with my own eyes and it turns out not to look like a hockey stick at all; more like a “tire iron” with its long end pointing downward.
—…—…—
No, no. This is not the hockey stick graph.