From Spaceweather.com
The sun is showing signs of life. There are no fewer than five active regions on the sun’s surface, shown here in an extreme ultraviolet photo taken this morning by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO):
Each circle contains a sunspot or proto-sunspot belonging to new Solar Cycle 24. After two years of record-low sunspot numbers and many month-long stretches of utter quiet, this is a notable outbreak. Whether it heralds a genuine trend or merely marks a temporary, statistical uptick in activity remains to be seen.
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“As we enter an El Nino year and as soon, as the sunspots get over their temporary–presumed–vacation worth a few tenths of a Watt per meter squared reduced forcing, there will likely be another dramaticupward spike like 1992-2000.”
http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=1047&filename=1255318331.txt
John Finn (03:47:38) :
I ‘m a bit fearful about what might happen if it actually starts to become more active. The solar/climate link is becoming increasingly less believable.
It’s the surface temperature record which is becoming increasingly less believable IMO.
Warmest ever blah blah. Yeah, Right!
John Finn (03:47:38)
“There’s a pretty fair chance that January 2010 will be the warmest January on record and an even chance that 2010 will be the warmest year on record. While the US may be a bit chilly at the moment the same cannot be aid for the rest of the world”
Are you kidding? It has been snowing in Portugal 2 weeks before Christmas, something I don´t recall ever seeing or hearing about. It´s Portugal, not Central Europe where the cold has been so intense that the Eurostar Train stalled in the Channel Tunnel this week.
Wishful thinking is one thing, ingoring facts is something different.
I have been following Joe Bastardi’s forecasts and he is predicting a very cold winter, both in the US and Europe. He is expecting a “triple crown” of cooling for the coming years:
1. low solar activity
2. start of the cold PDO phase
3. increased vulcanic and seismic activity
On this last one, I should mention that we had our strongest quake in the last 40 years here in Portugal last week. Plus, is anyone following the Phillipine volcano that is threatening to erupt?
Should be worth to see if these 3 come together sometime soon.
Jeff L (05:06:06) :
Anyone noticed the Planetary A Index is still very small despite more sunspot activity? Does this tie into Penn & Livingston’s work?
No, not at all. Different thing.
Don B (05:32:26) :
If the negative correlation between length of the sunspot cycle and subsequent temperature holds up, the long SC 23 means cooling is in the pipeline for the next decade.
There is no negative correlation. At best, at very weak [not significant] positive correlation: http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%20Length%20Temperature%20Correlation.pdf
jmrSudbury (05:43:16) :
vucevik, should the average for the Stanford graph not be (N+S)/2 instead of their (N-S)/2?
No, because N and S have opposite signs and cancel out in the sum.
Interesting to see that the prediction by Livingston and Penn still holds: the current sunspot data is, well, spot on for their disappearance in 2015 or so.
The day after the solstice the sun comes back to life. Time to celebrate! Yeah! : )
The Oulu neutron counter is showing a higher flux now than in September. I did not see any downward trend in the data at other neutron counters at Leif’s page.
http://www.leif.org/research/
I wish there was an easy way to look at the total cloud cover. (Especially in the tropics.)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/
I hope this is not the kiss of death but this guy seems to speak some sense?
He also received the climategate emails six weeks before they were posted?
Is the BBC earming to the idea that the science is not settled?
Leif Svalgaard (03:49:31) :
“ http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif
With new activity, the polar fields begin their slow decline. They have by now dropped 25% since mid-2006 [pink arrow]: http://www.leif.org/research/WSO%20Polar%20Fields.png “
I need PFs to move on, if my prediction of a SSNmax is to turn up by the end of 2013. I maybe wrong, but I think yours was not far off (have to look it up).
jmrSudbury (05:43:16) :
“vucevik, should the average for the Stanford graph not be (N+S)/2 instead of their (N-S)/2? “
John M Reynolds”
If S(outh) has negative value then: N- (-S) = N+S.
Geoff Sharp (02:55:07) :
“Right on Vuk, I have been watching the same graph for 18 months and still no sign of a turn. Does this current cycle display the chance of not following the normal Hale cycle like some proxy records from the Maunder suggest?”
Hi Geoff. If one is a skeptic towards accepted science, and goes by erroneous path of thinking that there is an external drive to it, than it could be concluded that whole thing might be getting out of phase. My equations show similar problem around 1800-1810. I am expecting major problem with PFs around 2020-2025. We have to wait and see.
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/PolarFields-vf.gif
Very good to see you post again, Dr. Svalgaard. As I recall you had said that we passed the absolute minimum some months ago, this surge in activity would seem to indicate that you were correct.
‘Global Warming’ cure using balloons and 2inch hosepipe. ( Still $250million but better than $trillions imo).
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2511875/nathan_myhrvolds_anti_global_warming.html
Ho boy, this is too complex for my laic brain. The only thing that makes sense to me is what Pamela said.
We seem to be having … a high degree of loopiness.
And so it seems to me. ☺
All good stuff from you technical people. Thanks for your insights.
Stay warm.
Pamela Gray (06:17:51) : “I have always been curious about jet stream behavior but am now adding Arctic Oscillations to my daily study. This in addition to oceanic SST and trade wind conditions.”
Are these conditions a result of climate/weather or is climate/weather a result of these conditions?
Geoff Sharp (02:55:07) : “The Layman’s Count already has that covered.”
Nice work. Has anyone ever considered simply using the same methods as in the distant past to count spots in conjunction with the modern methods and then comparing the two to see what the difference is?
As noted in a message that I sent about eight days ago to Dr. John Holdren, Science Advisor to President Barack Obama, the scientific community has no knowledge about Earth’s heat source (the Sun) because politicians misused federal grant funds to protect the inflated egos of power-hungry scientists over the past five decades (1960-2010):
“Former President Eisenhower warned of the dangers of an unholy alliance developing between scientists and politicians in his farewell address in January 1961, but despite his warning that is exactly what has happened.
The National Academy of Sciences (NAS), a private group that numbers you among its members, has trained scientists with grant funds the way Pavlov trained dogs with dog biscuits – at least since the time when I started my research career in 1960.
The integrity of publicly financed science has been essentially destroyed.
Here are a few empirical facts that have been discovered – but ignored or distorted by the influence peddlers who control research funds and foolishly tried to control scientific truths:
1. The Sun is the iron-rich remnant of the supernova that ejected all of the material now orbiting it about five (5) billion (10^9) years ago.
2. The top of the solar atmosphere is covered with Hydrogen – the lightest of all elements – but the Sun is NOT a ball of Hydrogen (H).
3. Solar energy comes primarily from repulsive interactions between neutrons in the solar core – NOT from H-fusion.
4. Solar-wind Hydrogen pouring from the solar surface is a waste product (neutron-decay product) from the solar engine.
5. Solar neutrinos do not oscillate away, although one hundred and seventy-eight (178) authors claimed in 2001 that the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory confirmed this illusion.
6. Earth’s climate is changing, has changed in the past, and will always change because our climate is controlled by the stormy Sun – a variable star.
The experimental basis for these statements are in four papers and references therein:
1. “Neutron repulsion confirmed as energy source”, Journal of Fusion Energy 20 (2002) 197-201;
http://www.springerlink.com/content/x1n87370x6685079/
2. “Solar abundance of elements from neutron-capture cross sections”, paper #1033, 36th Lunar & Planetary Science Conference (LPSC), Houston, Texas, March 14-18, 2005.
http://arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/0412502v1
3. “The Sun is a plasma diffuser that sorts atoms by mass”, Physics of Atomic Nuclei 69 (2006) 1847-1856;
http://arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/0609509
4. “Earth’s Heat Source – The Sun”, Energy and Environment 20 (2009) 131-144;
http://arxiv.org/pdf/0905.0704
Again, I wish you well” (in your efforts to establish a system of transparency, public participation, and collaboration” in science). “Your success will determine whether or not future generations have the opportunity to enjoy a life of continuous discovery.”
With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel
Former NASA PI for Apollo
http://myprofile.cos.com/manuelo09
Is Joe Romm blaming the increased sun spot activity on global warming?
Mann made?
For thousands of years, men have claimed the power to influence the gods.
par5 (00:18:58) :
Hathaway should be happy- moving the goalposts can be exhausting
LOL. ..
Seriously, a new solar theory is needed to replace “settled science”. Though there is one already, it´s dangerous to mention it, one risks excomulgation, condemnation is out there menacing apostates with inquisition! 🙂
http://www.electric-cosmos.org/sun.htm
Actually, the sun reflects the Consciousness of Humans on this Planet. The Collective Mind… wherein for the first time in written history, the ENTIRE COnsciousous of ALL living things here, Humans, “Animals,” Plants, especially, the Earth, herself, is suffering. Everything is out of Balance, and is calling out to SOME Power, for help!!
I read once, David Archibald said the lag between solar activity or inactivity and galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) volume in the atmosphere is 1 year. Meaning the current high volume of GCRs is a result of solar minimum last year. The continued solar minimum this year will allow more GCRs in the atmosphere next year.
Can anyone discuss if that 1-year lag is generally accepted among solar physics or geophysics literature? Thank you.
“With the chaos of the last week can you imagine if the Thames froze over again?”
It’s my understanding that for that to happen, London would need to reclaim their original bridge from Lake Havasu AZ. The new bridge offers substantially less back pressure.
cont’d
How can this Planet, even us, continue this way? Everything is wrong. There is mental turmoil and a great pain, mental and physical, everywhere. This is reflected in Nature. In deed, we ARE part of Nature. We ARE part of the Universe.
And no Living THing is being ignored. Something is happening in the wings, and is about to come through!
There are a great many people feeling this too. What is is or when it will happen, I don’t know. But it’s coming.
I encourage you all to laugh in the face of adversity. ANd join together with your fellows, in all ways. Embrace each other.
Love and Blessings to all.
Oliver K. Manuel (07:32:12) :
As noted in a message that I sent about eight days ago to Dr. John Holdren, Science Advisor to President Barack Obama, the scientific community has no knowledge about Earth’s heat source (the Sun)
Oh yes, we do. Your ideas are just plain wacko, to be blunt but correct. What was the answer you received?
Nonoy Oplas (07:46:46) :
Can anyone discuss if that 1-year lag is generally accepted among solar physics or geophysics literature?
It takes about a year for the solar wind to fill up the heliosphere, so a one-year lag is to be expected.
John Finn
If you expand your time frame a bit you’ll find that there is nothing remarkable about the climate we have experienced for the last decade. It’s also unremarkable that we have warmed 1C after the conclusion of a “Little Ice Age”. Take a look at the temperature charts for the last 10,000 to 1million years and you’ll find that the temps we are experiencing are not unique except for the fact that for 90% of that time period there is an ice sheet a mile thick above Chicago and New York.
It should be no surprise Also that Anthropologists are finding new paths through the Alps now that Glaciers have retreated to their more normal interglacial period extents. The retreat of the glaciers is also revealing other evidence of human habitation at these high elevations.
Since I live in Chicago, I think it’s important to keep in perspective how lucky we are to live at this particular point in history. People in this area of the world are quite capable of handling temperatures that range from -30F to +100F. I think we’ll survive just fine if that temperature range is -27F to +103F.
Shiny
Edward
Good thing the AGW hoax was blown open before the sun decided to heat up again!
How many anomalies can you have before it becomes the new normal?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/